Last August, two months before any team had played a game in the 2021-22 NHL season, the Colorado Avalanche were announced as the early favorite to win the Stanley Cup.
Ten months later, oddsmakers have the Avalanche as -175 favorites to take down the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final.
Here is a breakdown of how these two teams compare:
Offense
Avalanche:The Avalanche are the most dynamic offensive team in the postseason. They are averaging 4.64 goals per game. Their scoring average is more than 1.50 goals better than the Lightning in this postseason. Nathan MacKinnon has been magical with 11 goals in 14 games. Colorado's offensive depth is exceptional: The Avs boast nine players with five or more goals in these playoffs. Among them is spectacular puck-moving defenseman Cale Makar who has established himself as a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate. They average eight more shots per game than the Lightning. Lightning: Salary cap issues have eroded Tampa Bay's offensive depth. The Lightning are not as offensively dangerous as they once were. But they still have Nikita Kucherov and Steve Stamkos, and Brayden Point (lower body injury) should be ready to play this series.
Avalanche have a strong advantage
Defense
Avalanche: According to Natural Stat Trick, the Avalanche have given up 8.35 high danger scoring chances per game. They are giving up 2.86 goals per game in this postseason. Lightning:The Lightning have given up an average of 7.95 high danger chances per playoff game and their postseason goals-against average is 2.41 Lightning boast a slight advantage in defensive play
Power Play
Avalanche:The Avalanche have more weapons and their power play scoring efficiency is 31.1% in the postseason. Lightning: Their power play percentage is 22.6. The key to undermining Tampa Bay's power play is to play special attention to Nikita Kucherov. He already has five goals 10 points on the power play this summer.
Avalanche own an advantage
Penalty Kill
Avalanche: The Avs have been a mediocre penalty killing team in the postseason with a 75.7% effectiveness. That ranks 10th out of 16 teams. Lightning: The Lightning, meanwhile, rank sixth at 82.6% This is a team that can tighten their defensive coverage in key situations.
Lightning have the advantage
Goaltending
Avalanche: Injured goalie Darcy Kuemper should be ready to play. In 28 games of playoff experience, his record is 13-8 with a 2.78 goals-against average and .908 save percentage. Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy is arguably the best goalie in the NHL, although Igor Shesterkin was the best in this regular-season. Vasilevskiy has a 61-34 career playoff record with a 2.24 goals-against average and .926 save percentage. The Russian netminder has turned up his volume as the playoffs have progressed. He has given up no goals or one goal in eight of last 11 games.
Lightning Have a major advantage
Coaching
Avalanche:Jared Bedner hasn't received enough credit for pulling this team together. They have high end talent, but he has balanced their lines nicely to make them more formidable. Lightning:Jon Cooper coaches as if he has an advanced degree in postseason coaching. He is the masterful at pushing the right buttons and aligning his forces properly to meet the next challenge. He knows how to motivate his players. Two Stanley Cups prove that. The team isn't as deep as it was last season, but the Lightning are back in the Final.
Lightning have an advantage
Injuries
Avalanche: Even though Nazem Kadri has surgery on his thumb, he's expected to play in the Stanley Cup Final. Kuemper hasn't played since May 31, but he's expected to play Lightning: Brayden Point has an undisclosed injury, which has kept him out of the lineup since May 14. He went through a full practice today and is expected to be ready for the Final.
No advantage
Intangibles
Avalanche:The Avalanche finally came together in this postseason. They have looked almost unstoppable at times. Lightning:The Lightning have won 44 playoff games over the last 21 months. They aren't trying to figure out how to succeed in the postseason. They know how to scale Everest. They are also on a quest to be the first NHL team to win three Stanley Cups since the New York Islanders won four from 1980-83.
Lightning have the advantage
Prediction: Lightning in six games
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