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Forums :: Ottawa Senators :: Sens measure up poorly within Division, but NOT in Province
Author Message
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 14 @ 4:17 PM ET
It won't matter, because he's never been a fan of the site, and will NEVER admit that it has any merit whatsoever.

He did not believe this site projected "chances" a few seasons ago, and not having an open mind, still has not changed his mind since. here is what he said back a few seasons ago.


Although he does seem to be contradicting himself today, from what he said a few season ago. But that's par for the course, as it's nature to be on the opposite side of most discussions.





I tried to explain to a few hard headed leaf fans, that did not understand that looking only at the points out of a playoff spot, does not matter as much as the number of teams that you'd have to pass to get there (a playoff spot).

go back and read this thread http://www.hockeybuzz.com...hread.php?thread_id=71753 and you'll see what i mean.

- Doppleganger


I'm guessing you've just realized you're wrong?
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Feb 14 @ 4:49 PM ET
Selanne, Niedermayer, Pronger, if I recall, I think it was every single Dman on the roster was brought in by Burke.

Murray joined the Ducks as coach in 01/02, took over the GM spot in 02/03. His first year as GM, they put up 96 points. The next year, they declined. Like every other team he's ever taken over. Burke took over, and remade a good portion of the roster.

If you're going to sit there and look at him taking two good players (who I would seriously hesitate to say were the nucleus of that team), in the best draft in the history of the NHL, when he didn't manage to improve the team as GM, and yet ignore that a good portion of the roster was redone by Burke, I'd have to say you're out to lunch.

- prock

Your goggles are on too tight again prockie ,he remade the roster alright .He left the ducks in cap hell much like he had done in vancouver,and appears to be doing in toronto.BB is way overated bud you will see. No cup and another rebuild are in the cards for toronto
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 14 @ 4:58 PM ET
Your goggles are on too tight again prockie ,he remade the roster alright .He left the ducks in cap hell much like he had done in vancouver,and appears to be doing in toronto.BB is way overated bud you will see. No cup and another rebuild are in the cards for toronto
- top shelf 15



Murray has left every team he's taken over in a worse position than he's started. Burke has made every team better. Who would you prefer?
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Feb 14 @ 5:28 PM ET
Murray has left every team he's taken over in a worse position than he's started. Burke has made every team better. Who would you prefer?
- prock

Better Giving away assets like Bryz, Grabs will be the one that gets away in Toronto,becuse he foolishly spent his cap .Look at Toronto they are a pretty expensive 8th place team ,How much cap and player resources does he have for next season to add an impact player.Or better yet how long a window has BB left for that team to succeed.

Now iam sure you will say things like second youngest team in the league to support your arguement .But when i look deeper i dont see to much elite young tallent in the 24 or below age group other than kessel.I do see a bunch of decent 25 to 28 year old players all of whom are being paid accordingly or are about to recieve raises .At the rate BB is going you will run out of cap before anything is accomplished in toronto.

Most rebuilding clubs dont tie their hands this way, but it seems to be a common thing for Burke .He got lucky to have such a great group of young cheap elite tallent in ana put there by BM .To be able to buy some elite veteran tallent.Now in toronto he has one of the most expensive 8th place club in the league ,with no real young tallent to replace any of these expensive pieces he has aquired whenever he nedds to make another move to improve his team or better yet he loses a few to FA
p_zub
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 14 @ 5:46 PM ET
Better Giving away assets like Bryz, Grabs will be the one that gets away in Toronto,becuse he foolishly spent his cap .Look at Toronto they are a pretty expensive 8th place team ,How much cap and player resources does he have for next season to add an impact player.Or better yet how long a window has BB left for that team to succeed.

Now iam sure you will say things like second youngest team in the league to support your arguement .But when i look deeper i dont see to much elite young tallent in the 24 or below age group other than kessel.I do see a bunch of decent 25 to 28 year old players all of whom are being paid accordingly or are about to recieve raises .At the rate BB is going you will run out of cap before anything is accomplished in toronto.

Most rebuilding clubs dont tie their hands this way, but it seems to be a common thing for Burke .He got lucky to have such a great group of young cheap elite tallent in ana put there by BM .To be able to buy some elite veteran tallent.Now in toronto he has one of the most expensive 8th place club in the league ,with no real young tallent to replace any of these expensive pieces he has aquired whenever he nedds to make another move to improve his team or better yet he loses a few to FA

- top shelf 15


Lombardi and Armstrong won't on this team past this year, and I'm willing to bet the same of Komisarek. That's almost 11 million off the cap.
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Feb 14 @ 5:57 PM ET
Lombardi and Armstrong won't on this team past this year, and I'm willing to bet the same of Komisarek. That's almost 11 million off the cap.
- p_zub

Yep ,i guess toronto buys them out .BB isnt a bad gm but he isnt the second coming ethier.I perfer BM to rebuild a club moreso than BB ,but when the time comes to strike and go for it BB would be my guy.Both Gm,s have their strengths and weakness,s
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Feb 14 @ 6:08 PM ET
Better Giving away assets like Bryz, Grabs will be the one that gets away in Toronto,becuse he foolishly spent his cap .Look at Toronto they are a pretty expensive 8th place team ,How much cap and player resources does he have for next season to add an impact player.Or better yet how long a window has BB left for that team to succeed.

Now iam sure you will say things like second youngest team in the league to support your arguement .But when i look deeper i dont see to much elite young tallent in the 24 or below age group other than kessel.I do see a bunch of decent 25 to 28 year old players all of whom are being paid accordingly or are about to recieve raises .At the rate BB is going you will run out of cap before anything is accomplished in toronto.

Most rebuilding clubs dont tie their hands this way, but it seems to be a common thing for Burke .He got lucky to have such a great group of young cheap elite tallent in ana put there by BM .To be able to buy some elite veteran tallent.Now in toronto he has one of the most expensive 8th place club in the league ,with no real young tallent to replace any of these expensive pieces he has aquired whenever he nedds to make another move to improve his team or better yet he loses a few to FA

- top shelf 15

Not really sure where this "Burke sucks at cap management" thing is coming from. He doesn't sign people to long term contracts so even if someone is overpaid they are usually gone in a year or two. Toronto is in a good position cap-wise.

As for the Ducks being in a bad spot with their cap after winning the cup that happens. Same thing happened to the Hawks. He still managed to get his two best forwards under contract for a good price and good term. Burke seems to be one of the best GMs out there as far as contracts go.
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Feb 15 @ 8:10 AM ET
Not really sure where this "Burke sucks at cap management" thing is coming from. He doesn't sign people to long term contracts so even if someone is overpaid they are usually gone in a year or two. Toronto is in a good position cap-wise.

As for the Ducks being in a bad spot with their cap after winning the cup that happens. Same thing happened to the Hawks. He still managed to get his two best forwards under contract for a good price and good term. Burke seems to be one of the best GMs out there as far as contracts go.

- daeth

He should be ,he has had to deal with a lot of high priced ones ANA,VAN and now toronto .Iam not saying he is a bad gm but teams that hire him should know he doesnt like budget restraints.He is a better version of glen sather
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 15 @ 10:18 AM ET
did you just compare your team to the Stanley cup winning blackhawks
- nightmare3020



Wow, the Blackhawks losing streak is up to 9 consecutive games, and they play the red hot Rangers next.

Just goes to show you that most teams have a "slump" at some time during a long season. Thankfully the Senators seem to over the hump, for now.
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Feb 15 @ 5:46 PM ET
He should be ,he has had to deal with a lot of high priced ones ANA,VAN and now toronto .Iam not saying he is a bad gm but teams that hire him should know he doesnt like budget restraints.He is a better version of glen sather
- top shelf 15

How many long term unmovable contracts has Burke signed lately? Serious question.

Komisarek seems to be the only one I can see and nearly every team has a guy like that. Him spending up to the cap does not mean he can't work with a budget.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 15 @ 7:34 PM ET
How many long term unmovable contracts has Burke signed lately? Serious question.

Komisarek seems to be the only one I can see and nearly every team has a guy like that. Him spending up to the cap does not mean he can't work with a budget.

- daeth


What about the most overrated player in the NHL, as voted on by the players themselves??


He makes 6.5 Million for the next two seasons after this one.
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Feb 15 @ 8:40 PM ET
What about the most overrated player in the NHL, as voted on by the players themselves??


He makes 6.5 Million for the next two seasons after this one.

- Doppleganger

I doubt Burke would dump him if he had the chance so it's not an issue.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 16 @ 10:10 AM ET
My point is that I bet you come to the same result (or similar) by just figuring out the PPG for each team at that point in the season, and then ranking them accordingly. It isn't giving some sort of great insight.

If that's all you are expecting (i.e. for it to do the small callculation of PPG) then it is a useful site. Take it for what it is tho. A sometimes accurate, sometimes inacurrate tool. Don't try to prove a point by using what it says.

- mfreedman


When you calculate a projection (for a season) by using PPG and see that team may get 95 points, without taking into account the teams they will be playing against (stronger, weaker, in or out of conference, home or away, back to back) all your getting is an guesstimate.

CSS looks at these variables and calculated the probability (or Chances) of a teams multiple outcomes. It's just more accurate than just extrapolating PPG, without taking into account all the variables that a team faces.
p_zub
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 16 @ 10:41 AM ET
What about the most overrated player in the NHL, as voted on by the players themselves??


He makes 6.5 Million for the next two seasons after this one.

- Doppleganger


There were about 160 athlete who responded to that survey...surely someone who likes stats as much as you do would recognize the value of sample size in extrapolating data over the whole population.....
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 16 @ 10:48 AM ET
There were about 160 athlete who responded to that survey...surely someone who likes stats as much as you do would recognize the value of sample size in extrapolating data over the whole population.....
- p_zub


So you agree with me that stats don't tell all of the story. Great!
p_zub
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 16 @ 12:38 PM ET
So you agree with me that stats don't tell all of the story. Great!
- Doppleganger


Whether stats can tell a story, or that they are even collected properly are two completely different arguments. Come on man....smarten up here.
mfreedman
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Thornhill, ON
Joined: 10.04.2010

Feb 16 @ 12:40 PM ET
When you calculate a projection (for a season) by using PPG and see that team may get 95 points, without taking into account the teams they will be playing against (stronger, weaker, in or out of conference, home or away, back to back) all your getting is an guesstimate.

CSS looks at these variables and calculated the probability (or Chances) of a teams multiple outcomes. It's just more accurate than just extrapolating PPG, without taking into account all the variables that a team faces.

- Doppleganger


HAs is been proven to be more accurate? Let's see. I am typing this as I look it up, so I want to see what the standings were as of Mid December, then I'll create the projections, and compare to their predictions. (just doing the east, too lazy for both)

So Standings in east (As of DEC 13)
Team------------GP--PTS--PPG--PF--PR
Philadelphia--- 28--39--1.39--4--0
Boston----------28--37--1.32--2--0
Florida-----------30--37--1.23--4--0
NY Rangers-----27--38--1.41--0--3
Pittsburgh------30--38--1.27--3--3
Toronto---------29--33--1.14--3--0
Buffalo----------29--32--1.10--3--1
Washington---28--31--1.11--1--2
New Jersey----29--31--1.07--2--2
Montréal-------30--31--1.03--2--2
Winnipeg ------29--30--1.03--1--2
Ottawa--------30--30--1.00--0--2
Tampa Bay----30--26--0.87--1--0
NY Islanders--27--24--0.89--0--1
Carolina--------31--22--0.71--0--0

Lets say Standard Deviation is around 0.06 (estimate, but probably pretty close)

The number to the right (which I added now) is how many positions they could fall (PF), and next to it is how may they could rise (PR).

Using the PPG and the positions they can drop or rise, Here are the standings predictions.

NYR
BOS
FLA
PHI
PIT
TOR/WAS
TOR/WAS/BUF
WAS/BUF/NJ
NJ/BUF

The site you are referring to had the prediction then of:

NYR
BOS
FLA
PHI
PIT
TOR
BUF
WAS
NJ

Wow.. Actually pretty damn similar (if not the exact same really)

Guess both work
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 16 @ 1:49 PM ET


Wow.. Actually pretty damn similar (if not the exact same really)

Guess both work

- mfreedman


And with a lot less work too.

It's not ever going to be 100% perfect, but it's pretty close most of the time, and as I've told in the past, I've won a lot of bets, betting with a fan of a team that ONLY looks at the points behind the 8th seed (at the time) and thinks if his team can just win four of five games in a row, his team will be in the top eight.
mfreedman
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Thornhill, ON
Joined: 10.04.2010

Feb 16 @ 1:54 PM ET
And with a lot less work too.

It's not ever going to be 100% perfect, but it's pretty close most of the time, and as I've told in the past, I've won a lot of bets, betting with a fan of a team that ONLY looks at the points behind the 8th seed (at the time) and thinks if his team can just win four of five games in a row, his team will be in the top eight.

- Doppleganger


Well those are just stupid fans... Good on you to take their money

But if you recall I said at the beginning that this site is no more accurate than doing what I said... For this year anyways, it appears that to be the case.. Would need a larger sample to find out for sure, but a lot of what they are trying to figure out is based on some sort of bias (i.e. an easier schedule)
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Feb 16 @ 1:56 PM ET
Well those are just stupid fans... Good on you to take their money

But if you recall I said at the beginning that this site is no more accurate than doing what I said... For this year anyways, it appears that to be the case.. Would need a larger sample to find out for sure, but a lot of what they are trying to figure out is based on some sort of bias (i.e. an easier schedule)

- mfreedman


I would think the "easier schedule" is when Team X faces teams who are seeded lower than they are.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 16 @ 2:44 PM ET
Well those are just stupid fans... Good on you to take their money

But if you recall I said at the beginning that this site is no more accurate than doing what I said... For this year anyways, it appears that to be the case.. Would need a larger sample to find out for sure, but a lot of what they are trying to figure out is based on some sort of bias (i.e. an easier schedule)

- mfreedman


Remember that I told you earlier that some of us have been monitoring this site for a few seasons now, and I hear it brought up on local radio, and read references to it in the local papers in recent years, so it does have some traction within the sport media people.

here's a link with more links to hockey websites.
http://my.hockeybuzz.com/...ser_id=16513&post_id=4734
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Feb 18 @ 3:49 AM ET
Sportsclubstats.com is the best website of its kind if that is what you guys are talking about. It's not meant to be used as something 100% factual, rather it's meant to be a general guide of how likely a team will make the playoffs based on current stats. It doesn't take into account injuries, trades, or hot/cold streaks and even at the best of times teams can be unpredictable so it's not perfect but it is useful still.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 18 @ 10:49 AM ET
Sportsclubstats.com is the best website of its kind if that is what you guys are talking about. It's not meant to be used as something 100% factual, rather it's meant to be a general guide of how likely a team will make the playoffs based on current stats. It doesn't take into account injuries, trades, or hot/cold streaks and even at the best of times teams can be unpredictable so it's not perfect but it is useful still.
- daeth


Injuries and trades aren't taken into account either, when you simply extrapolate a teams current P% to project a point total for a season.

No one can predict the future, and that's a calculated risk when using SCS, but it's been a pretty tool over the past few seasons.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Feb 19 @ 12:35 PM ET
Nothing is 100% bulletproof, obviously. I'm not personally a fan of the site. I think it's far more useful to look at things like that in terms of what a team would realistically need to do, as opposed to "they have x% chance of making the playoffs".
- prock



Let's take a look at the five teams, in the East that, as of today, are competing for the three playoff spots that seem to there for the taking.

Washington has 24 games left to play, 12 home and 12 away, and four times they'll be playing back to back games before the end of the season. Half of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

Florida has 25 games left to play, 13 home and 12 away, and also have to play four times in a back to back situation, before the end of the season. But play only 9 of their remaining games, against teams already sitting in a playoff spot.

The Jets have only 22 games left to play, 13 home and 9 away, and they have three more back to back games situations. Ten of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

toronto has 23 games left to play, 12 home and 11 away, and they too have four more back to back games situations.. But 13 of their remaining games are against teams already sit in a playoff berth.

Ottawa has 22 games left to play, 12 home and 10 away, and only 3 more times will be playing in back to back games before the end of the season. Eleven of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

I'll include Winnipeg, who also have 22 games left to play, 13 home and 9 away, and only 3 more times will be playing in back to back games before the end of the season. Ten of their remaining games are against teams that sit in a playoff berth today.

So just looking at these schedules, I think that the leafs might have a tough time remaining in the eighth spot in the Conference.

With Washington breathing down their backs and having one game in hand on the leafs. They also got Mike Green back into the line up, and that should help their PP.

Washington has two games in hand on the Senators, and sit 5 points back, and will play each other this Wednesday in Ottawa, and Saturday in toronto.

The two Ontario teams can drive a couple of coffin-nails into the Capital's playoff hopes, if they both can beat the Capitals (in regulation) this week.

Winnipeg plays well at home, and even though they've a little further back (in points) than the Capitals and Panthers (who have games in hand), don't forget that they are still in the same Division and have a chance to move up into a playoff spot, by virtue of playing the Panthers and the Capitals twice each in so called "four point games". These four games could also Benefit the two Ontario teams if the Jets split their games (two each) vs the Panther and Capitals and become a de facto spoiler.





mfreedman
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Thornhill, ON
Joined: 10.04.2010

Feb 19 @ 11:44 PM ET
Let's take a look at the five teams, in the East that, as of today, are competing for the three playoff spots that seem to there for the taking.

Washington has 24 games left to play, 12 home and 12 away, and four times they'll be playing back to back games before the end of the season. Half of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

Florida has 25 games left to play, 13 home and 12 away, and also have to play four times in a back to back situation, before the end of the season. But play only 9 of their remaining games, against teams already sitting in a playoff spot.

The Jets have only 22 games left to play, 13 home and 9 away, and they have three more back to back games situations. Ten of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

toronto has 23 games left to play, 12 home and 11 away, and they too have four more back to back games situations.. But 13 of their remaining games are against teams already sit in a playoff berth.

Ottawa has 22 games left to play, 12 home and 10 away, and only 3 more times will be playing in back to back games before the end of the season. Eleven of their remaining games are against teams already sitting in a playoff berth.

I'll include Winnipeg, who also have 22 games left to play, 13 home and 9 away, and only 3 more times will be playing in back to back games before the end of the season. Ten of their remaining games are against teams that sit in a playoff berth today.

So just looking at these schedules, I think that the leafs might have a tough time remaining in the eighth spot in the Conference.

With Washington breathing down their backs and having one game in hand on the leafs. They also got Mike Green back into the line up, and that should help their PP.

Washington has two games in hand on the Senators, and sit 5 points back, and will play each other this Wednesday in Ottawa, and Saturday in toronto.

The two Ontario teams can drive a couple of coffin-nails into the Capital's playoff hopes, if they both can beat the Capitals (in regulation) this week.

Winnipeg plays well at home, and even though they've a little further back (in points) than the Capitals and Panthers (who have games in hand), don't forget that they are still in the same Division and have a chance to move up into a playoff spot, by virtue of playing the Panthers and the Capitals twice each in so called "four point games". These four games could also Benefit the two Ontario teams if the Jets split their games (two each) vs the Panther and Capitals and become a de facto spoiler.

- Doppleganger


Started reading, but stopped when I noticed Toronto was the only name not capitalized.. You really hate everything Toronto eh?
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