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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:10 PM ET
people dont assume that.
So ya

- senstroll



Thats' exactly what this implies

Shattenkirk finished this past season with a 53% CF rating, good for 23rd in the NHL among D who played 1000 minutes. That is an elite rating. He scored 53 points and when he was on the ice, his team too 53% of the shots. If you cause your team to get more shots than the other team, you can’t be bad at defense, and Shattenkirk is certainly not.



CF%, as you know, is ratio of shot attempts for vs against.

"If you cause your team to get more shots than the other team, you can't be bad at defense".

that says, in the scenario I gave, the guy that gives up more shots than the rest of his team, is considered good defensively, according to that statement. simply because he encourages more shots for.

prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:11 PM ET
Literally all his stats prove is that in his role (2nd pairing, often 3rd pairing, 4th in ES) he excelled. From that someone has come to the conclusion that he's a top 20 dman. Honestly it's laughable. This is where advanced stats go wrong. You need context.
- daeth

yes, completely agree. Too many look at a couple of statistics, that they deem important, and think that's everything they need to know. CF%, Corsi relative to team, being the two most common.

It's ridiculous.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:12 PM ET
Literally all his stats prove is that in his role (2nd pairing, often 3rd pairing, 4th in ES) he excelled. From that someone has come to the conclusion that he's a top 20 dman. Honestly it's laughable. This is where advanced stats go wrong. You need context.
- daeth


I think that is point about Phaneuf. He logged really hard minutes all year and provided warrior like support for his team mates. It is ludicrous to believe that Shattenkirk would give you anything even close to what Phaneuf does for the Sens.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:14 PM ET
Thats' exactly what this implies




CF%, as you know, is ratio of shot attempts for vs against.

"If you cause your team to get more shots than the other team, you can't be bad at defense".

that says, in the scenario I gave, the guy that gives up more shots than the rest of his team, is considered good defensively, according to that statement. simply because he encourages more shots for.

- prock


But you can be Bobby Orr and lead the attack and still be a good defender one on one or in blocking shots.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 2:24 PM ET
Literally all his stats prove is that in his role (2nd pairing, often 3rd pairing, 4th in ES) he excelled. From that someone has come to the conclusion that he's a top 20 dman. Honestly it's laughable. This is where advanced stats go wrong. You need context.
- daeth


Some context

Stl and Washington have very good D. being a 2nd pairing D on those teams is not a knock

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:24 PM ET
It is boring, cold and wet at the cottage.

Going to have a hot dog with mustard and lots of onions.

Then I am going to have a great afternoon nap.

Last week we went fishing and we dislodged the drain plug on the bass boat as we went down a shallow creek that links two lakes.

Anyway the hull of the bass boat filled with water below the 10" boat deck. Not until the water began overflowing the deck did notice we were sinking. We were able to get the boat started and ran it full out with the nose up at a 45 degree angle in order to drain the weight.

We survived and got the boat safely to shore.

Glad everybody is alive and happy.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:28 PM ET
But you can be Bobby Orr and lead the attack and still be a good defender one on one or in blocking shots.
- spatso


yes, never said you couldn't. Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman are perfect examples.

It's not as simple as one stat. There is always context.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:31 PM ET
Some context

Stl and Washington have very good D. being a 2nd pairing D on those teams is not a knock

- senstroll


I don't think that is what he is saying. But if you are the 4th best Dman on a team you just don't get into the same action.

So, for example imagine playing Edmonton but not having to face McDavid on any shift. And, then, being statistically compared with the guy who went head to head with McDavid on every shift he played. I think that is the issue where I agree entirely with Prock on the whole shot suppression issue
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:32 PM ET
yes, never said you couldn't. Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman are perfect examples.

It's not as simple as one stat. There is always context.

- prock


Herman yes. Doughty not so much.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 2:35 PM ET
Thats' exactly what this implies




CF%, as you know, is ratio of shot attempts for vs against.

"If you cause your team to get more shots than the other team, you can't be bad at defense".

that says, in the scenario I gave, the guy that gives up more shots than the rest of his team, is considered good defensively, according to that statement. simply because he encourages more shots for.

- prock


if he is getting 53% of the shot share, thats better than 47% and just allowing less shots overall.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:36 PM ET
Herman yes. Doughty not so much.
- spatso



Doughty? Umm, yes. He's top 5 in the league defensively, and still drives a poop tonne of offense.

He didn't have a good year, mind you, but normally he's top tier elite defensively, and his teams number one offensive contributor from the blue line. And he does that for a top team. 5 years, the best two way defender in the league. hedman now getitng up there, maybe taking that title over though.

prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:37 PM ET
if he is getting 53% of the shot share, thats better than 47% and just allowing less shots overall.
- senstroll



it's not better defensively. it's better overall.

and of course, these numbers still require context.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:37 PM ET
if he is getting 53% of the shot share, thats better than 47% and just allowing less shots overall.
- senstroll


But if you don't play against McDavid?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:43 PM ET
Doughty? Umm, yes. He's top 5 in the league defensively, and still drives a poop tonne of offense.

He didn't have a good year, mind you, but normally he's top tier elite defensively, and his teams number one offensive contributor from the blue line. And he does that for a top team. 5 years, the best two way defender in the league. hedman now getitng up there, maybe taking that title over though.

- prock


We all know that nobody comes close to Karlsson. Even the Norris voters went out of their way to say 29 goals could not be ignored and Burns was a special situation this year.

Since Karlsson has come into the league his numbers are entirely outstanding and he has accumulated more Norris votes than any other skater during that period. His two Norris trophies assure his admittance into the HHOF and he just turned 27. Phenomenal!
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:43 PM ET
We all know that nobody comes close to Karlsson. Even the Norris voters went out of their way to say 29 goals could not be ignored and Burns was a special situation this year.

Since Karlsson has come into the league his numbers are entirely outstanding and he has accumulated more Norris votes than any other skater during that period. His two Norris trophies assure his admittance into the HHOF and he just turned 27. Phenomenal!

- spatso


Nobody comes close eh? Seems to me like quite a few have the last few years. Quite a few have been better!



Not that the Norris matters too much.

If I want to win a cup my top two dmen in the league are, without a doubt, Doughty or Hedman.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 2:51 PM ET
I don't think that is what he is saying. But if you are the 4th best Dman on a team you just don't get into the same action.

So, for example imagine playing Edmonton but not having to face McDavid on any shift. And, then, being statistically compared with the guy who went head to head with McDavid on every shift he played. I think that is the issue where I agree entirely with Prock on the whole shot suppression issue

- spatso




there is plenty of writing on this stuff and enough for people get an idea of the type of player he is.

https://www.pensionplanpu...enceman-kevin-shattenkirk

the type of opposition is looked into...has done well against what he has been given. doesnt mean he cant handle more.

the issue is, does it make more sense to sign a player for Free or move assets list JVR and draft picks for someone else?

senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 2:52 PM ET
But if you don't play against McDavid?
- spatso


Nobony plays every shift against Mcdavid ..like wtf?
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 2:54 PM ET
there is plenty of writing on this stuff and enough for people get an idea of the type of player he is.

https://www.pensionplanpu...enceman-kevin-shattenkirk

the type of opposition is looked into...has done well against what he has been given. doesnt mean he cant handle more.

the issue is, does it make more sense to sign a player for Free or move assets list JVR and draft picks for someone else?

- senstroll



Doesn't mean he can either.

I'm not overly opposed to signing him. Not my personal preference though.

He's good in his own right, but I just don't think he complements what we already have very well.

The Leafs tried having 3 guys that played primarily defense by puck moving, with Kubina, Kaberle, and McCabe, and it was a disaster. Granted, McCabes game went to shyt when they took away the clutch and grab play, and the "can opener", but still.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jun 29 @ 3:25 PM ET
Doesn't mean he can either.

I'm not overly opposed to signing him. Not my personal preference though.

He's good in his own right, but I just don't think he complements what we already have very well.

The Leafs tried having 3 guys that played primarily defense by puck moving, with Kubina, Kaberle, and McCabe, and it was a disaster. Granted, McCabes game went to shyt when they took away the clutch and grab play, and the "can opener", but still.

- prock

McCabe's game went to poop, Kaberle got concussed, Kubina was decent, but most importantly, our goaltending was atrocious.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Jun 29 @ 3:27 PM ET
We all know that nobody comes close to Karlsson. Even the Norris voters went out of their way to say 29 goals could not be ignored and Burns was a special situation this year.

Since Karlsson has come into the league his numbers are entirely outstanding and he has accumulated more Norris votes than any other skater during that period. His two Norris trophies assure his admittance into the HHOF and he just turned 27. Phenomenal!

- spatso



I'm not saying Karlsson isn't the right player for the Sens but what about Laine?
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 3:31 PM ET
McCabe's game went to poop, Kaberle got concussed, Kubina was decent, but most importantly, our goaltending was atrocious.
- Feeling Glucky?



there is some truth to that. They were pretty solid until the lockout. But I mean, even when Belfour was good for the Leafs, the best they could do was trounce the turds year after year after year after year.

granted, that was pre-kubina.
BetterCallSaul
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Captain Morgan Rielly
Joined: 05.07.2013

Jun 29 @ 3:37 PM ET
We all know that nobody comes close to Karlsson. Even the Norris voters went out of their way to say 29 goals could not be ignored and Burns was a special situation this year.

Since Karlsson has come into the league his numbers are entirely outstanding and he has accumulated more Norris votes than any other skater during that period. His two Norris trophies assure his admittance into the HHOF and he just turned 27. Phenomenal!

- spatso

You ever see a clip of Auston Matthews second goal in the NHL? Could you check that out and please tell me exactly which defenceman Matthews (a first game rookie) rips the puck away from before he goes on to score? I'll wait. Just a teaser though, he makes this specific defenceman look very, very silly.
daeth
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: accuratently, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Jun 29 @ 3:39 PM ET
You ever see a clip of Auston Matthews second goal in the NHL? Could you check that out and please tell me exactly which defenceman Matthews (a first game rookie) rips the puck away from before he goes on to score? I'll wait. Just a teaser though, he makes this specific defenceman look very, very silly.
- BetterCallSaul

i think matthews is going to make a habit of making many a norris winner look silly. can't hold that against anyone
BetterCallSaul
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Captain Morgan Rielly
Joined: 05.07.2013

Jun 29 @ 3:43 PM ET
i think matthews is going to make a habit of making many a norris winner look silly. can't hold that against anyone
- daeth

But I want to. Just for this situation. I won't hold it against the Doughty's or Burns'.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 3:45 PM ET
But I want to. Just for this situation. I won't hold it against the Doughty's or Burns'.
- BetterCallSaul



Bets on how many times you're going to hear "but every dman makes mistakes, not just karlson", as Matthews dances by him and pots one, in the next 5 years?
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