Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: WJC, Flyers Daily, TIFH

Bill, can you speak to how much Hart leaned on his fellow Veteran goal tenders in Elliot or Jones? You’d think, in a bit of a make or break season for Hart, they would get this kid a quality veteran backup.

Bill, can you speak to how much Hart leaned on his fellow Veteran goal tenders in Elliot or Jones? You’d think, in a bit of a make or break season for Hart, they would get this kid a quality veteran backup.
- ClaudeFather

Hart personally got along very well with both guys and perhaps picked a few pointers and day-to-day things he could adapt into his own routine. Overall, though, I wouldn't say either was a "mentor" per se to him.

I am going to address Flyers goaltending in an upcoming blog. I said this on today's podcast as well a few previous ones: the Flyers goaltending situation is a big concern to me. I have faith in Hart but he has yet to have a pro season where he doesn't miss time with injury. I am not comfortable with either Grosenick or Sandström (who has had injury issues of his own in his career) as being the potential starter if Hart goes down nor am I comfortable with either as a ca. 25 game guy in the NHL this year. I was leery of Fedotov, and am especially leery of the other two.

Yes, I'd like to see the Flyers pick up a vet goalie if someone more proven goes on waivers. But a) Flyers are already looking at having to dip into LTIR allowance even going ultra-inexpensive on their G2/G3 depth, b) if Ersson can stay healthy this season, he's a very underrated prospect. I don't want him as the No. 3 in Lehigh Valley. He needs to play.

Hart personally got along very well with both guys and perhaps picked a few pointers and day-to-day things he could adapt into his own routine. Overall, though, I wouldn't say either was a "mentor" per se to him.

I am going to address Flyers goaltending in an upcoming blog. I said this on today's podcast as well a few previous ones: the Flyers goaltending situation is a big concern to me. I have faith in Hart but he has yet to have a pro season where he doesn't miss time with injury. I am not comfortable with either Grosenick or Sandström (who has had injury issues of his own in his career) as being the potential starter if Hart goes down nor am I comfortable with either as a ca. 25 game guy in the NHL this year. I was leery of Fedotov, and am especially leery of the other two.

Yes, I'd like to see the Flyers pick up a vet goalie if someone more proven goes on waivers. But a) Flyers are already looking at having to dip into LTIR allowance even going ultra-inexpensive on their G2/G3 depth, b) if Ersson can stay healthy this season, he's a very underrated prospect. I don't want him as the No. 3 in Lehigh Valley. He needs to play.
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill. It seems like the kid is fully on top of his own craft but I’m curious to see how this plays out. The injuries are a question like you mentioned and there is the fact that the guy behind him is a huge question mark, will this affect him mentally?

Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: WJC, Flyers Daily, TIFH
- bmeltzer

How is it possible that this organization has sank so fast?

Hart personally got along very well with both guys and perhaps picked a few pointers and day-to-day things he could adapt into his own routine. Overall, though, I wouldn't say either was a "mentor" per se to him.

I am going to address Flyers goaltending in an upcoming blog. I said this on today's podcast as well a few previous ones: the Flyers goaltending situation is a big concern to me. I have faith in Hart but he has yet to have a pro season where he doesn't miss time with injury. I am not comfortable with either Grosenick or Sandström (who has had injury issues of his own in his career) as being the potential starter if Hart goes down nor am I comfortable with either as a ca. 25 game guy in the NHL this year. I was leery of Fedotov, and am especially leery of the other two.

Yes, I'd like to see the Flyers pick up a vet goalie if someone more proven goes on waivers. But a) Flyers are already looking at having to dip into LTIR allowance even going ultra-inexpensive on their G2/G3 depth, b) if Ersson can stay healthy this season, he's a very underrated prospect. I don't want him as the No. 3 in Lehigh Valley. He needs to play.
- bmeltzer

Do you see this as a make or break season for Carter Hart? I don’t. I think might be a little unfair to put further pressure on him considering the current state of the organization.

Do you see this as a make or break season for Carter Hart? I don’t. I think might be a little unfair to put further pressure on him considering the current state of the organization.
- SuperSchennBros

It absolutely is. Especially considering who is in charge now. If he has another down year, I could easily see them moving on from him and brining in another goaltender. Although he is young, it’s his fourth season as a starter. He needs to show consistency.

It absolutely is. Especially considering who is in charge now. If he has another down year, I could easily see them moving on from him and brining in another goaltender. Although he is young, it’s his fourth season as a starter. He needs to show consistency.
- ClaudeFather

He didn't have a down year in 2021-22. He was the team MVP through the All-Star Break -- a .915 save percentage even with all the unstructured slop in front of him -- but then had injury and inconsistency issues the rest of the way that pulled his numbers down. Last season was one that would drag virtually any goalie down with it eventually.

He didn't have a down year in 2021-22. He was the team MVP through the All-Star Break -- a .915 save percentage even with all the unstructured slop in front of him -- but then had injury and inconsistency issues the rest of the way that pulled his numbers down. Last season was one that would drag virtually any goalie down with it eventually.
- bmeltzer

I don’t disagree with the latter portion of your post but again, Injuries and inconsistency. If he does not have a solid season I can see the team moving on. Just because he played well for a portion doesn’t mean anything.

Do you see this as a make or break season for Carter Hart? I don’t. I think might be a little unfair to put further pressure on him considering the current state of the organization.
- SuperSchennBros

He's still only 24-yo. He still has time to find his groove.

But we need to face the facts here... the Carey Price comparisons were just way out of whack. Hart likely settles in as an average/below-average NHL starter at best.

I don’t disagree with the latter portion of your post but again, Injuries and inconsistency. If he does not have a solid season I can see the team moving on. Just because he played well for a portion doesn’t mean anything.
- ClaudeFather

Love ‘em or hate em, the first thing I thought when they hired Torts was…this is good thing for Hart. Not only the system, but his ultra accountability approach to detail especially on the d side of the puck. Hopefully we get him right this year, and hopefully he has a fair chance to do it.

He's still only 24-yo. He still has time to find his groove.

But we need to face the facts here... the Carey Price comparisons were just way out of whack. Hart likely settles in as an average/below-average NHL starter at best.
- Tomahawk

Yes they were….he does play the same style, but that’s a lot put on a kids shoulders….especially playing in front of that team.

He's still only 24-yo. He still has time to find his groove.

But we need to face the facts here... the Carey Price comparisons were just way out of whack. Hart likely settles in as an average/below-average NHL starter at best.
- Tomahawk

Put a good team in front of him and he'll be an above-average NHL starter. Has the pedigree and talent to do so and, more important, has shown the ability to do so. Environment and structure matter greatly for a goalie. Unless your Dominik Hasek in his Buffalo days, it's hard to find a goalie who completely rises above a porous team in front of him on a consistent basis.

Even stats like "saves above replacement" can be deceptive. When the team in front of you gives up too many back-door goals where the goalie doesn't a have a chance (which doesn't hurt a goalie in that metric) PLUS is prone to screening their own goalie (which can hurt a goalie since shot location is what matters for it) PLUS regularly provides its goalie with scant margin for error due to anemic goal support, it's very easy for goalies to eventually start letting in a "stoppable one."

Mike McKenna has very interesting thoughts on the subject of what the team-in-front to goalie-play balance is, and it's not necessarily something that is well measured in stats.

Love ‘em or hate em, the first thing I thought when they hired Torts was…this is good thing for Hart. Not only the system, but his ultra accountability approach to detail especially on the d side of the puck. Hopefully we get him right this year, and hopefully he has a fair chance to do it.
- landros 2

100% Our breakdowns and lapses are so frustrating and kill a goalie's ability to keep the puck out of the net. I think this might help the team overall and Hart a lot.

It absolutely is. Especially considering who is in charge now. If he has another down year, I could easily see them moving on from him and brining in another goaltender. Although he is young, it’s his fourth season as a starter. He needs to show consistency.
- ClaudeFather

He's also still young as a goaltender. Shesterkin was just breaking in at 24 years of age and played 12 NHL games at that age. Bumped up to 35 the next year. Shesterkin is 26 going on 27 and has played 100 NHL games. Hart at 23 has played 146. Need to be patient with Hart still.

Put a good team in front of him and he'll be an above-average NHL starter. Has the pedigree and talent to do so and, more important, has shown the ability to do so. Environment and structure matter greatly for a goalie. Unless your Dominik Hasek in his Buffalo days, it's hard to find a goalie who completely rises above a porous team in front of him on a consistent basis.

Even stats like "saves above replacement" can be deceptive. When the team in front of you gives up too many back-door goals where the goalie doesn't a have a chance (which doesn't hurt a goalie in that metric) PLUS is prone to screening their own goalie (which can hurt a goalie since shot location is what matters for it) PLUS regularly provides its goalie with scant margin for error due to anemic goal support, it's very easy for goalies to eventually start letting in a "stoppable one."

Mike McKenna has very interesting thoughts on the subject of what the team-in-front to goalie-play balance is, and it's not necessarily something that is well measured in stats.
- bmeltzer

The hallmark of an elite goalie is their ability to rise above team quality, tho. The great equalizer.

Carey Price just dragged a pretty terrible, banged up team to the SCF. He's been outperforming his teams for most of his career.

Shesterkin sits behind one of the most porous team defenses in the league and won a Vezina, and was a Hart finalist.

There were series where Tampa didn't play all that well but Vasy just shut the door for them.

Hart had that going on for a bit early last season, but he couldn't keep it up. The elite guys can keep it up for season/seasons on end.

He's still only 24-yo. He still has time to find his groove.

But we need to face the facts here... the Carey Price comparisons were just way out of whack. Hart likely settles in as an average/below-average NHL starter at best.
- Tomahawk

I still believe he has higher upside that that.

The hallmark of an elite goalie is their ability to rise above team quality, tho. The great equalizer.

Carey Price just dragged a pretty terrible, banged up team to the SCF. He's been outperforming his teams for most of his career.

Shesterkin sits behind one of the most porous team defenses in the league and won a Vezina, and was a Hart finalist.

There were series where Tampa didn't play all that well but Vasy just shut the door for them.

Hart had that going on for a bit early last season, but he couldn't keep it up. The elite guys can keep it up for season/seasons on end.
- Tomahawk

That would be an argument for why Hart won't be an elite goaltender, which I would agree with. Different to become an above average starter.

Love ‘em or hate em, the first thing I thought when they hired Torts was…this is good thing for Hart. Not only the system, but his ultra accountability approach to detail especially on the d side of the puck. Hopefully we get him right this year, and hopefully he has a fair chance to do it.
- landros 2

100%... along with a few other players. One of the reasons why I don't mind the hiring of Torts.

That would be an argument for why Hart won't be an elite goaltender, which I would agree with. Different to become an above average starter.
- MJL

There's still hope for him to blossom into an above-average guy, but I feel like that's on the upper end of the bell curve now.

His relatively small size, his iffy glove hand, the periodic mental lapses, the injuries, the way the Flyers botched his development... he's gonna have to overcome a lot to get there.

He's also still young as a goaltender. Shesterkin was just breaking in at 24 years of age and played 12 NHL games at that age. Bumped up to 35 the next year. Shesterkin is 26 going on 27 and has played 100 NHL games. Hart at 23 has played 146. Need to be patient with Hart still.
- MJL

So you foresee patience from management if he has a down year? To the other posters point above, I do think Torts will do well for Hart. They will at least play with a certain amount of structure this upcoming season.

How is it possible that this organization has sank so fast?
-curduroy

Maybe they were never that seaworthy in the first place.

He's still only 24-yo. He still has time to find his groove.

But we need to face the facts here... the Carey Price comparisons were just way out of whack. Hart likely settles in as an average/below-average NHL starter at best.
- Tomahawk

Below-average is a little harsh, don't you think? Hart may very well be a great system goalie, like Tukka Rask, which would be very nice, especially if unlike Rask, Hart shows up big in the big moments.

The hallmark of an elite goalie is their ability to rise above team quality, tho. The great equalizer.

Carey Price just dragged a pretty terrible, banged up team to the SCF. He's been outperforming his teams for most of his career.

Shesterkin sits behind one of the most porous team defenses in the league and won a Vezina, and was a Hart finalist.

There were series where Tampa didn't play all that well but Vasy just shut the door for them.

Hart had that going on for a bit early last season, but he couldn't keep it up. The elite guys can keep it up for season/seasons on end.
- Tomahawk

This is where your metrics get you in trouble. Was Billy Smith a great goalie? How about Grant Fuhr? They were both Cup winning goalies that had the best team in the world in front of them, icing some of the greatest scorers in NHL history. Makes it a lot easier on a goalie when you can give up 3 goals and still win going away. Hart has not had that luxury ... hmmm .. ever on the Flyers. You must take this into account. Hart gives up 3 and your penciling in the Loss column! Not a good feeling.

Below-average is a little harsh, don't you think? Hart may very well be a great system goalie, like Tukka Rask, which would be very nice, especially if unlike Rask, Hart shows up big in the big moments.
- jd250

So an elite goalie, your comparisons are always spot on…