Jeremy Laura: Breakout candidate - Filip Zadina

Go Young Z!! Fill those nets with pucks!!

I think Zadina will be a solid second line winger. Could Holland have done better at #6 overall, yes. Was it a disastrous pick, no.

It's easy to say he should of picked someone else over Zadina now. At the time, Zadina was pegged to go 3rd and lots of fans were suprised he fell to us at #6.


If you can get a 2nd line player with a 6th pick, your team did good.

I think Zadina will be a solid second line winger. Could Holland have done better at #6 overall, yes. Was it a disastrous pick, no.
- todd3066

There it is. Hearing anyone say this was Holland’s “worst mistake” or biggest sin of a pick is just mind boggling.

It's easy to say he should of picked someone else over Zadina now. At the time, Zadina was pegged to go 3rd and lots of fans were suprised he fell to us at #6.


If you can get a 2nd line player with a 6th pick, your team did good.
- porkchops1977

Agreed

Go Young Z!! Fill those nets with pucks!!
- HenryHockey

Nice

There it is. Hearing anyone say this was Holland’s “worst mistake” or biggest sin of a pick is just mind boggling.
- Jeremy Laura

He's a total bust.....send him to Edmonton so Holland can own his mistake.

He's a total bust.....send him to Edmonton so Holland can own his mistake.
- Beergu

Ok, for Draisaitl

I think Zadina will be a solid second line winger. Could Holland have done better at #6 overall, yes. Was it a disastrous pick, no.
- todd3066

Hughes would suck in Detroit.

Hughes regressed last year, too much hype in my opinion on him. Zadina by far isn't Holland's biggest mistake. How quickly everyone forgets Nielsen, Weiss, Cleary, etc. And he's still proving he is full of more mistakes in Edmonton. So happy he is their problem now.

Here's every #6 overall draft pick ever up through 2020:

https://www.hockeydb.com/...ft_by_pick.php?position=6

If Zadina develops into a decent second line winger, and plays at least 10ish years in the NHL, that would be a pretty typical career for someone taken at his draft position. Maybe even slightly above average.

Obviously the proximity to Hughes makes the pick look worse in retrospect, but also Hughes needs to figure out how not to be a complete black hole defensively before people start writing the "what if" thinkpieces. If Hughes was merely below average rather than utterly atrocious in his own end, he'd be one of the better D in the league. For now, I'd call him a PP specialist who is mediocre but "exciting" (for both teams) at 5 on 5.

Here's every #6 overall draft pick ever up through 2020:

https://www.hockeydb.com/...ft_by_pick.php?position=6

If Zadina develops into a decent second line winger, and plays at least 10ish years in the NHL, that would be a pretty typical career for someone taken at his draft position. Maybe even slightly above average.

Obviously the proximity to Hughes makes the pick look worse in retrospect, but also Hughes needs to figure out how not to be a complete black hole defensively before people start writing the "what if" thinkpieces. If Hughes was merely below average rather than utterly atrocious in his own end, he'd be one of the better D in the league. For now, I'd call him a PP specialist who is mediocre but "exciting" (for both teams) at 5 on 5.
- Sven22

I prefer an offensive defenseman that can play defense as well!
Note: Many NYI fans said Leddy forgot to play defense last season, especially in the play-offs.

I prefer an offensive defenseman that can play defense as well!
Note: Many NYI fans said Leddy forgot to play defense last season, especially in the play-offs.
- HenryHockey

To be fair, I don't think Hughes is a bad player, just very overrated (at least for the player he is today). He is very bad defensively but very good offensively. He's also still not even 22 yet and there is a decent chance (although certainly no guarantee) his defensive play will improve significantly over the next few years.

As he is today, I think he can be quite effective in a PP1 / sheltered second-pair sort of role, particularly on an otherwise defensively responsible team. Maximize his strengths, hide his weaknesses as best you can. If he fixes his play in the defensive zone, he's a clear top pairing defender. But that hasn't quite happened yet, and may not.

I really don't see how anyone can say he's a bust, including people on this board. Hughes gets a lot of assists, he's got 97 points and he's a minus 35 in his career so far. If he's a bust, who would you have taken at 6? Most will say Quinn, but Detroit needed defensive defensemen at the time. Is Boqvist a bust? Worse numbers than Zadina. Many "experts" said the Wings would take Bouchard, he's played in 21 games. Some wanted Wahlstrom, Zadina is at .43 points per game vs .39 for Wahlstrom, who plays on one of the top teams in the league. If anything, Detroit missed out on Farabee, but 12 other teams besides Detroit passed on him, and 20 other teams besides Detroit passed on Miller.

it doesn't surprise me though, because I've seen several people on this board already declare that Raymond was a bust.

Lookin gat the feedback here, I kind of feel like I'm watching the discussion of the Greatest Player of ALL-TIME. Opinions vary, but statistics would really need some time to build themselves. It's especially hard to compare players of different positions....

Look, Zads is a work-in-progress. He also really placed his emphasis on being more defensive last year. But, I can say that some of hit goals were absolutely devastating. He needs to work on incorporating both in order to become the player he's needed to be, and wants to be. It takes time. I'm comfortable with his evolving the way he has.....It's not like he screwed something up that cost us Lord Stanley's Cup last year......

I've been an advocate of drafting defensemen for a while (and, yes, goalies) because most take some time to germinate. I would've like to have seen Bouchard come to us, but I like Zadina.

Regardless of who we got, Detroit is in the enviable position of have a butt-load of cap-space, more expiring contracts this season, and not many players contracted 4 seasons out. The dearth of aged players with astronomical AAV hits is fairly gone. The team is evolving. The kids will take some time, but last year, despite the 'Rona, was actually good. And we added some solid players (Ned, Vrana extended, Leddy on the back-end), with some promising kids pushing for a slot (who is NOT excited about Mo Sides?!?!/!?!). But, again, passing judgement now, I think is premature. We all have what we WANTED to see......and there were some pretty good "wants".

We just need to sit tight and let the chips fall where they may......knowing we ain't paying someone $5m to ride the pine

Lookin gat the feedback here, I kind of feel like I'm watching the discussion of the Greatest Player of ALL-TIME. Opinions vary, but statistics would really need some time to build themselves. It's especially hard to compare players of different positions....

Look, Zads is a work-in-progress. He also really placed his emphasis on being more defensive last year. But, I can say that some of hit goals were absolutely devastating. He needs to work on incorporating both in order to become the player he's needed to be, and wants to be. It takes time. I'm comfortable with his evolving the way he has.....It's not like he screwed something up that cost us Lord Stanley's Cup last year......

I've been an advocate of drafting defensemen for a while (and, yes, goalies) because most take some time to germinate. I would've like to have seen Bouchard come to us, but I like Zadina.

Regardless of who we got, Detroit is in the enviable position of have a butt-load of cap-space, more expiring contracts this season, and not many players contracted 4 seasons out. The dearth of aged players with astronomical AAV hits is fairly gone. The team is evolving. The kids will take some time, but last year, despite the 'Rona, was actually good. And we added some solid players (Ned, Vrana extended, Leddy on the back-end), with some promising kids pushing for a slot (who is NOT excited about Mo Sides?!?!/!?!). But, again, passing judgement now, I think is premature. We all have what we WANTED to see......and there were some pretty good "wants".

We just need to sit tight and let the chips fall where they may......knowing we ain't paying someone $5m to ride the pine
- mcmastermike1968

I actually kinda disagree with the conventional wisdom that defensemen and goalies take longer to develop / hit their peak than forwards do. I don't think there's a huge difference.

IMO the bigger issue is that defenders and goalies are simply harder to evaluate. Defensive play is harder to quantify statistically and the eye test often overrates the big obvious things (big hits, puck pursuit -- or blowing your coverage once in a while) and underrates some of the more subtle things that contribute to defensive efficiency. And for goalies, it's just a question of needing to face thousands and thousands of shots (and having a good model for shot difficulty / expected goals) before you can really start to separate the signal from the noise confidently.

So, defenders and goalies tend to be brought along more slowly and cautiously. Not necessarily because they aren't ready, but because coaches and GMs tend to be risk-averse and would rather choose the safe, steady veteran over the unproven defender or goaltender who might already be better but also might be worse.

My opinion anyway.

I actually kinda disagree with the conventional wisdom that defensemen and goalies take longer to develop / hit their peak than forwards do. I don't think there's a huge difference.

IMO the bigger issue is that defenders and goalies are simply harder to evaluate. Defensive play is harder to quantify statistically and the eye test often overrates the big obvious things (big hits, puck pursuit -- or blowing your coverage once in a while) and underrates some of the more subtle things that contribute to defensive efficiency. And for goalies, it's just a question of needing to face thousands and thousands of shots (and having a good model for shot difficulty / expected goals) before you can really start to separate the signal from the noise confidently.

So, defenders and goalies tend to be brought along more slowly and cautiously. Not necessarily because they aren't ready, but because coaches and GMs tend to be risk-averse and would rather choose the safe, steady veteran over the unproven defender or goaltender who might already be better but also might be worse.

My opinion anyway.
- Sven22

I’ll say this, I’ve heard both Lidstrom and Larry Murphy say defenders take a long time. Even in the NHL, it takes 200 games (according to both) for them to really learn that level and position.

I’ll say this, I’ve heard both Lidstrom and Larry Murphy say defenders take a long time. Even in the NHL, it takes 200 games (according to both) for them to really learn that level and position.
- Jeremy Laura

Obviously I'm not going to have much credibility arguing with guys like Lidstrom or Murphy. That said, a couple of points to ponder:

- It takes everyone a little time to adjust to the speed and intensity of the NHL, regardless of age, forwards included. Perhaps it does taken defenders more games on average, though I'm sure it varies from player to player. But it also seems like defenders (and especially goalies) also start later, and that's what I'm questioning. I'm not sure it's necessary to hold them back until 22, 23 years old before they even start getting used to the NHL pace. I think many could handle the promotion earlier.

- I'm basing a lot of my impression on aging curve studies by statisticians using large samples and things like WAR, and one of the consistently interesting findings is that you don't see defenders showing a much more delayed aging curve than forwards like the conventional wisdom might expect -- especially if you adjust for things like ice time. They tend to be their absolute most productive around 23-27 or so -- just like forwards. It certainly appears like the young defenders are getting results, even if they don't necessarily feel totally confident yet.

Some AWESOME discussions on this topic!!! Some compelling points. Which proves that discussions about what’s “best” or how players are rated is pretty arbitrary, and very much open to interpretation.

I do like the counter-points brought out, DEFINITELY leads me to consider all aspects. I like that. Yet another reason to visit this blog routinely!!!!

Hughes is a defensive liability despite being a wizard on offence. Zadina plays a complete 200' game and if he starts popping a few goals he can be a 25 goal man and a complete player, not too shabby if this happens. I hope he earns the opportunity to get some quality time on the pp and with top six line mates. There is a reason he was projected to go #3 in his draft year. I just got this feeling that Vrana and Zadina were meant to star in Detroit.