Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Expansion Draft, Entry Draft, a Flyers Pilgrimage

Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Expansion Draft, Entry Draft, a Flyers Pilgrimage
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill

Bill you see the Flyers having any interest in Kevin Shattenkirk?

Bill back in the day before the regular season started they would have a waiver draft. You ever see that being brought back?

All this talk of draft picks and values of prospects… whatever happened to Jay O’Brien? I know he’s at BU and last report was doing well. But is there any legitimate prospect that he will be able to become an NHL level player?

All this talk of draft picks and values of prospects… whatever happened to Jay O’Brien? I know he’s at BU and last report was doing well. But is there any legitimate prospect that he will be able to become an NHL level player?
- mikeyo27

Yes. But needs to build off last season and add a little more strength.

Bill you see the Flyers having any interest in Kevin Shattenkirk?

Bill back in the day before the regular season started they would have a waiver draft. You ever see that being brought back?
- hello it's me 2050

No, I don't see the waiver draft coming back. Haven't heard Shattenkirk's name this offseason so far.

From end of last blob:

Dude, Flyers had Chris Pryor in charge of the draft for years. He was an outside hire.

And Brown is head of pro scouting. He's not watching amateurs.
- Tomahawk

Fine, I withdraw my aspersion for that particular person and that particular position but it was really a very small part of the more general point.

Scouting and player evaluation staff play an enormous role today in an organization. As the implications of the salary cap deepen the advantages will lie with organizations who can eke out the extra mileage from these fields.

How exactly are such fields evaluated in the industry? If every time some entity (department/personnel) does well, the narrative is that it is luck, then there is no place left for merit, because there is luck in every success.

Other than luck, how can you measure performance? There are really 2 ways: there must be some granular data based metric, or there must be a grapevine/reputation metric. Each of these could be faulty. But they might also be the best we have. Which leads to the following existential questions:

1. How do guys like Pryor measure up in such areas? What metric do they excel in? What is their reputation in the job? How does that compare to industry wide assessments?

2. Dave Brown is the director of pro scouting? How many trades have we won during his regime? Is that below or above the industry average? How exactly do we know, in other words, that he is doing a good job? Or not?

3. Do the Flyers have a reputation of aggressively hiring the best scouts/analytics people in the field? There was a young student from my institution who is from Voorhees NJ. A straight A student in a very competitive and quantitative major. Grew up a Flyers and Eagles fan. She is a rising star in sports analytics. She interned for the Eagles during her studies. Why did she end up in Seattle and not here?

4. Why are so many of the Flyers hires ex loyal soldiers, especially of the pluck-and--brawn types? Laperierre, Brown, Berube, Holmgren, Riley Cote etc. Do other organizations also hire so many of their own loyal soldiers?

I will keep an open mind. I know little about this.

But to my partially educated eye, there seems to be a lack of efficiency in the Flyers organization.

Keith for Caleb. No retention. Interesting. Holland is past his expiration date.

From end of last blob:



Fine, I withdraw my aspersion for that particular person and that particular position but it was really a very small part of the more general point.

Scouting and player evaluation staff play an enormous role today in an organization. As the implications of the salary cap deepen the advantages will lie with organizations who can eke out the extra mileage from these fields.

How exactly are such fields evaluated in the industry? If every time some entity (department/personnel) does well, the narrative is that it is luck, then there is no place left for merit, because there is luck in every success.

Other than luck, how can you measure performance? There are really 2 ways: there must be some granular data based metric, or there must be a grapevine/reputation metric. Each of these could be faulty. But they might also be the best we have. Which leads to the following existential questions:

1. How do guys like Pryor measure up in such areas? What metric do they excel in? What is their reputation in the job? How does that compare to industry wide assessments?

2. Dave Brown is the director of pro scouting? How many trades have we won during his regime? Is that below or above the industry average? How exactly do we know, in other words, that he is doing a good job? Or not?

3. Do the Flyers have a reputation of aggressively hiring the best scouts/analytics people in the field? There was a young student from my institution who is from Voorhees NJ. A straight A student in a very competitive and quantitative major. Grew up a Flyers and Eagles fan. She is a rising star in sports analytics. She interned for the Eagles during her studies. Why did she end up in Seattle and not here?

4. Why are so many of the Flyers hires ex loyal soldiers, especially of the pluck-and--brawn types? Laperierre, Brown, Berube, Holmgren, Riley Cote etc. Do other organizations also hire so many of their own loyal soldiers?

I will keep an open mind. I know little about this.

But to my partially educated eye, there seems to be a lack of efficiency in the Flyers organization.
- PT21

My opinion obviously, but in most highly desirable job positions it is more often than not who you know and not what you know, as cliché as that sounds. I don't think that's exusive to the Flyers or the NHL, in general, but like you, I've never researched this at all, it's just the way it certainly seems.

Fly out to LA with a film major summa cum laude from Temple/Drexel/Nova/etc. and drop resumes off at major studios without knowing anyone and see how that works out, for example.

Keith for Caleb. No retention. Interesting. Holland is past his expiration date.
- hello it's me 2050

More than obvious as a play to get Seth in trade and extend in Chicago either this season or as a UFA.

Sigh…

Man the Oilers are dumb. They took Keith at full salary and provided a third round pick. The Oilers need to take a lap.

My opinion obviously, but in most highly desirable job positions it is more often than not who you know and not what you know, as cliché as that sounds. I don't think that's exusive to the Flyers or the NHL, in general, but like you, I've never researched this at all, it's just the way it certainly seems.

Fly out to LA with a film major summa cum laude from Temple/Drexel/Nova/etc. and drop resumes off at major studios without knowing anyone and see how that works out, for example.
- daddytc

Certainly, contacts play a big part. Especially in getting your foot in the door. Sadly.

Having said that though, merit also plays a huge role. Just look at first generation college immigrants. They know nobody. But they get hired by the handful. And no, they do not make any less than US born candidates for the same jobs.

looking at the cap for the Hawks it appears they need to move more and have players to sign, hell 1/2 there team has 1 year left.

looking at the cap for the Hawks it appears they need to move more and have players to sign, hell 1/2 there team has 1 year left.
- wcorvette

Seabrooke retiring and trading Keith at full salary makes them a player this offseason.

Man the Oilers are dumb. They took Keith at full salary and provided a third round pick. The Oilers need to take a lap.
- mickel25

no money retained I cant believe. knowing keiths choices were very limited

Awful trade for Edmonton.........

no money retained I cant believe. knowing keiths choices were very limited
- hello it's me 2050

Just seems like they could have spent $5+mil in cap space a little better. Keith is 37 years old and has not been great for a few years now. I guess that's why Holland gets paid the big bucks.

Just seems like they could have spent $5+mil in cap space a little better. Keith is 37 years old and has not been great for a few years now. I guess that's why Holland gets paid the big bucks.
- mickel25

Agree. I think keith can still play and help. Just overpaid at his rate. Add a decent pick to boot.

maybe opens the door for larson to leave.

Just seems like they could have spent $5+mil in cap space a little better. Keith is 37 years old and has not been great for a few years now. I guess that's why Holland gets paid the big bucks.
- mickel25

Edmonton is an inept organization. Holland traded Panarin for Saad (trying to revive old chemistry with stalwarts but after Panarin had a Calder season and after Panarin took a home own discount). I doubt Bowman is some trading talent. Its the other side that explains it.

But yeah, Oilers got hosed.

EDIT: Bowman

Agree. I think keith can still play and help. Just overpaid at his rate. Add a decent pick to boot.

maybe opens the door for larson to leave.
- hello it's me 2050

Yeah that's the other side of it. They are kind of choosing Keith over Larsson. They are down to $7 mil after taking on Keith's salary. They need a goalie as well.

How exactly are such fields evaluated in the industry? If every time some entity (department/personnel) does well, the narrative is that it is luck, then there is no place left for merit, because there is luck in every success.
- PT21

Not all scouts are created equal. Not all scouting departments are created equal. But at the end of the day, the scouts don't make the picks.

They can lobby all they want but somebody needs to be buying what they're selling. Sometimes the current state of the team, current and future needs, availability of picks, relationship with the GM, etc, just don't align with the kids they're pushing.

Even if the team does take their recommendation, it's completely out of their hands after that. Scouts don't have a crystal ball to predict health, development, quality and quantity of opportunity, favoritism, etc that play a huge part in determining who gets a legit shot or not.

Brayden Point absolutely blew up D+2. That afforded him a look at a top-six spot right away. If his D+2 season is any less impressive, or if they had inserted him into the lineup earlier or later, or if he had gotten hurt along the way, he may never have gotten that same opportunity. It may have been years before he had gotten a real shot, like Marchessault, St. Louis, etc.

The road to the NHL a multi-step, multi-year process... everything needs to line up just right. Luck can make or derail the process at any point. It's a lot of right place, right time. Only high picks are usually afforded multiple quality auditions.

2. Dave Brown is the director of pro scouting? How many trades have we won during his regime? Is that below or above the industry average? How exactly do we know, in other words, that he is doing a good job? Or not?
- PT21

Keep in mind that a lot of these pro scouts are semi-retired, watching mostly home games (or TV), and they're not exactly winning/losing trades for their teams.

Maybe Bill could expound on Brown's particular involvement, but I really haven't heard much about his role since he was hired.

https://twitter.com/pengu...5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Not all scouts are created equal. Not all scouting departments are created equal. But at the end of the day, the scouts don't make the picks.

They can lobby all they want but somebody needs to be buying what they're selling. Sometimes the current state of the team, current and future needs, availability of picks, relationship with the GM, etc, just don't align with the kids they're pushing.

Even if the team does take their recommendation, it's completely out of their hands after that. Scouts don't have a crystal ball to predict health, development, quality and quantity of opportunity, favoritism, etc that play a huge part in determining who gets a legit shot or not.

Brayden Point absolutely blew up D+2. That afforded him a look at a top-six spot right away. If his D+2 season is any less impressive, or if they had inserted him into the lineup earlier or later, or if he had gotten hurt along the way, he may never have gotten that same opportunity. It may have been years before he had gotten a real shot, like Marchessault, St. Louis, etc.

The road to the NHL a multi-step, multi-year process... everything needs to line up just right. Luck can make or derail the process at any point. It's a lot of right place, right time. Only high picks are usually afforded multiple quality auditions.




Keep in mind that a lot of these pro scouts are semi-retired, watching mostly home games (or TV), and they're not exactly winning/losing trades for their teams.

Maybe Bill could expound on Brown's particular involvement, but I really haven't heard much about his role since he was hired.
- Tomahawk

So its all murky/luck etc.? I am sure that is part of the story, but surely it cannot be all of it.

Here is the thing. There is no salary cap for personnel/coaches etc. Why don't big pocket teams just buy up scouting talent/[player development coaches etc?

In the NFL, drafting and coaching success gets you immediately noticed and immediately a bidding war starts. Look at Joe Douglas, to name just one of many individuals. In 9 years time he went from scout to GM, with 4 organizations across the 9 years.

I don't understand why the equivalent for the NHL is so cloudy. Actually, I probably do. As always, the answer lies in follow the $. In the NFL, the sport is so over the top successful even with bottom feeding franchises that owners risk nothing of their $ by rebuilding and going for the prestige of a championship.

In the NHL, rebuilds/draft-and-develop for long mean loss of revenue. All that investment in scouting/drafting/development would mean committing to some years of icing less than contending teams. No financial incentive to do so.

I find it funny and sad though that fans always assume their club is as interested in playoff success as they themselves are.

Bill, I agree with you for the most part in terms of not giving any sweeteners to Seattle, just provide the players and let them take one. However, if the Flyers can get out from under Jake's contract by adding a sweetener, that would be the only exception and I would do it. I have to think with all the speculation that Seattle might take Braun or Haag, in the end when a player like JVR is sitting there with only 2 years left on his deal, you have to pick him if you are Ron Francis, you just have to. But if I could provide a pick or two to Seattle to take Jake, that would be be ideal for the Flyers. Overall, it looks like there will be a lot of good players available for the Flyers to obtain once they clear some cap space, so Fletcher with the right moves can turn this thing around quickly.

All this talk of draft picks and values of prospects… whatever happened to Jay O’Brien? I know he’s at BU and last report was doing well. But is there any legitimate prospect that he will be able to become an NHL level player?
- mikeyo27

Jay is the real deal, give him one more season at BU and then you will see him on the Flyers in 2023.