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wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jun 8 @ 12:11 PM ET
I am neither proud nor humble about it.

- MBFlyerfan


well since i entered 2010 I am going to need to get you banned....

MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 8 @ 12:12 PM ET
well since i entered 2010 I am going to need to get you banned....
- wcorvette



Ill try to up my game.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 12:12 PM ET
We might have hit, too. Just in a different position. We dunno.

But man, a year ago I was clamoring HARD for Caufield. Could be that scorer we haven’t had in...well...way too long.

I remember that rollercoaster of him being available, trading back and flipping out, then he’s there again; repeat.

And then they took York.

It still might play well. We need a RD badly. But man, that kid is slick.

- Hesh_


In the off season, I was clamoring hard for Toffoli, after it became apparent Pietro was not coming here. He would have been a perfect fit for the style Couturier plays. Defensively responsible, two way player who can score and is not small.

They got him for a steal of a contract. Look at the season he had. Better production than any of our forwards, many more goals.

I commend Habs for a # of good decisions. Besides drafting Caulfield, they got rid of their captain Pacioretty for a pick that turned into Suzuki. KK and he are only 20-21 and have big upside. If this guy Romanov can play as well as the hype, they have some good pieces, and no huge contracts except Weber (who will likely retire before contract runs out) and Price.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jun 8 @ 12:16 PM ET
Hi pal, whats for lunch

Hows the family


Hahahah (frank)ing stooge

- CRUSH IT LIKE ME

Hey new poster how are things going in your first 2 months of posting?
Im back
Joined: 05.27.2021

Jun 8 @ 12:16 PM ET
Please don't erect strawmen just so you can knock it down. I have never, ever said you MUST draft in the top 5 to select an elite player.

People who say: look, Pasta was drafted late first, and Kucherov not at all and Point in the 3rd and so on and so forth, ignore a simple fact of arithmetic. Lets say we are looking at top 5 pick elite players. Well, there are by definition 5 spots in the top 5. There are about 210 spots outside the top 5 for the other superstars to come from.

If x # of elite players come from top 5 draft picks, and y from outside it, then if x and y are equal, it does not mean that you have an equal chance of getting an elite player picking outside the top 5 as you do outside it. It means that your chance of getting said elite player is 42 times more likely in the top 5 than outside it.

Those are hugely lopsided odds.

- PT21


What I can’t wrap my head around:
Every team says you have to build around the draft due to cap

The best chance to get building pieces is at top of draft


People still think you can BUILD by drafting outside of the top picks?

Yes complimentary pieces for sure and may get that winning lottery type pick outside of the top picks. Surely possible but highly unlikely

People still willing to accept trying this method or propose ideas based around that theory.

xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jun 8 @ 12:20 PM ET
I just picked a few playoff teams, but you are right, I could have also include the Rangers and Leafs also, since I would take their top paid players over ours any day of the week! And I'm sorry, if you don't think Stone is better than anything the Flyers have, you are not watching enough hockey.
- jd250


Ok how do you explain....

TOR: Marner, Matthews and Nylander - havent been past first round dince 2004

EDM: McDavid, Drasaitl and RNH - swept 1st round

WPG: Schiefele, Ehlers, Connor - Swept 2nd round

MON: Anderson, Weber, Price - Going to semis

Is that Montreal core anywhere close to any of the teams above?

How do the Flyers comoare to the Isles who are one game from eliminating Boston?

Stone is very talented sure but the guy hasnt played a full season in his career. He is at least equal to Couturier. Offensivey he is a little better than Couturier but Couturier is the better 2 way player

Im back
Joined: 05.27.2021

Jun 8 @ 12:21 PM ET
In the off season, I was clamoring hard for Toffoli, after it became apparent Pietro was not coming here. He would have been a perfect fit for the style Couturier plays. Defensively responsible, two way player who can score and is not small.

They got him for a steal of a contract. Look at the season he had. Better production than any of our forwards, many more goals.

I commend Habs for a # of good decisions. Besides drafting Caulfield, they got rid of their captain Pacioretty for a pick that turned into Suzuki. KK and he are only 20-21 and have big upside. If this guy Romanov can play as well as the hype, they have some good pieces, and no huge contracts except Weber (who will likely retire before contract runs out) and Price.

- PT21


Honestly I don’t think toffoli has that type season with philly. We’re too slow as a team. Toffoli benefits from speed around him. Agree with Montreal assessment tho. I think they beat tb and go to finals as long as they play their game. As long as price continues stellar play in net
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 12:21 PM ET
I posted this before, but basically here is what I would at least try to do.
1. Get Seattle to take Jake. This means cover some salary (e.g. $1.5M per season) and sweeten with a pick or mid level prospect.
2. Trade JVR and Ghost. I think both have trade value now. In return try to get a legitimate top 4 (not necessarily top pairing) defenseman with size, smarts and grit.
3. Sign another legitimate top 4 defenseman FA, like Adam Larsson
4. Sign 2 mid level FA forwards that inject speed, skill or grit into the forward group (e.g. Schwartz and Saad/Foligno)
5. Sign a backup FA goalie (e.g. Frederick Anderson, Raanta) to augment Hart
6. Resign Morin as a bottom pairing defenseman that can give you PK time
7. Leave roster spots for Frost, York and Allison to get a full season under their belt.
8. If there is no real trade value, resign Patrick to a 1 year "prove-it" contract and let him earn his ice time. Otherwise trade him with Ghost and/or JVR, or use him to sweeten the deal for Seattle to take Jake and maybe not have to cover as much salary.

As I said, its easy to write these ideas down, but that is how I would approach it. I would go for depth and trying become tougher to play against versus trying to hit a home run on a FA like Hamilton or trading the farm for a player like Jones.

- jd250


I know you are just spitballing, but I think your expectations are way outta whack. You will need to do more than hold 1.5 back and add a mid level prospect for Jake to go. That would lower his salary to 6.75. That's not what he would get in today's market.

Assuming one of JVR/Ghost is taken (best case scenario), the other again does not go without sweeteners. For example, if Ghost was marketable at 4.5m, he would have been picked off waivers. There will need to be some salary withheld. You are certainly not going to get a top 4 defenseman in return. You are at best going to get a bottom pairing guy/bottom 6 forwards, that too marginal, or non-roster players.

And so on.

But here is my simple question. With all those changes, do you expect that team you put forward to be a contender?


hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jun 8 @ 12:22 PM ET
eat a Richard.
- Ftown19125

Very odd response.
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Jun 8 @ 12:25 PM ET
To be honest some of the moderators let their personal feelings dictate who gets banned and who gets a pass. They act like real Divas.......

- MBFlyerfan


Im back
Joined: 05.27.2021

Jun 8 @ 12:26 PM ET
Ok how do you explain....

TOR: Marner, Matthews and Nylander - havent been past first round dince 2004

EDM: McDavid, Drasaitl and RNH - swept 1st round

WPG: Schiefele, Ehlers, Connor - Swept 2nd round

MON: Anderson, Weber, Price - Going to semis

Is that Montreal core anywhere close to any of the teams above?

How do the Flyers comoare to the Isles who are one game from eliminating Boston?

Stone is very talented sure but the guy hasnt played a full season in his career. He is at least equal to Couturier. Offensivey he is a little better than Couturier but Couturier is the better 2 way player

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


The teams you have as examples don’t have the team depth. It’s not all about the top talent. It’s still a team sport. You can’t win with just top talent and no depth. You also can’t win with depth and no top talent.

Philly definitely build a lot of really nice decent players and depth. Problem is thinking they have top talent and that includes coots.

And then when you add cap in and the salaries paid it throws everything out of whack
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 12:28 PM ET
What I can’t wrap my head around:
Every team says you have to build around the draft due to cap

The best chance to get building pieces is at top of draft


People still think you can BUILD by drafting outside of the top picks?

Yes complimentary pieces for sure and may get that winning lottery type pick outside of the top picks. Surely possible but highly unlikely

People still willing to accept trying this method or propose ideas based around that theory.

- Im back


I have thought about this myself. Given how many reasonably intelligent posters here say things like "Look at Edmonton, or Buffalo, or Toronto" and so on. I believe there are 2 basic reasons:

1. Though they say they want to win the cup, they want to not have to suffer a # of barren years even more.
2. They get fooled by randomness. (They point out, there are no guarantees. However, there are no guarantees you will win picking late either. In fact, the odds are sharply against it. One has to bear down and look at the data and what it tells you and many find that too abstract).
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
Honestly I don’t think toffoli has that type season with philly. We’re too slow as a team. Toffoli benefits from speed around him. Agree with Montreal assessment tho. I think they beat tb and go to finals as long as they play their game. As long as price continues stellar play in net
- Im back


Well, Toffoli was very good with Carter and Pearson. Would you call that a speedy line?

MTL will play Vegas/Avs. I think they will be eliminated in at most 6 in those match ups.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 8 @ 12:35 PM ET
Favorite to win division? Hey I agree that they need to do everything you said. And I love bee as a top line winger eventually and York almost definitely will be a krug type pp1 qb and top 4 dman but with that said even with these moves and being a little tougher to play against the way league is you need speed and top talent over the long haul. Coots as 1c really bothers me. Don’t get me wrong I love him as the 2c. But without a true 1c no way we’re favorite for division.
- Im back

I look at Coots similar to Bergeron, a great 2 way player that can score you 30 goals and play with top line wingers. Bergeron has been great on Boston's top line. Coots is very similar IMO. It can work with Coots as your 1C as long as you have skill, speed and toughness depth throughout your lineup.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 8 @ 12:36 PM ET
Ok how do you explain....

TOR: Marner, Matthews and Nylander - havent been past first round dince 2004

EDM: McDavid, Drasaitl and RNH - swept 1st round

WPG: Schiefele, Ehlers, Connor - Swept 2nd round

MON: Anderson, Weber, Price - Going to semis

Is that Montreal core anywhere close to any of the teams above?

How do the Flyers comoare to the Isles who are one game from eliminating Boston?

Stone is very talented sure but the guy hasnt played a full season in his career. He is at least equal to Couturier. Offensivey he is a little better than Couturier but Couturier is the better 2 way player

- xShoot4WarAmpsx

You need more than top skill players to win a Cup, I grant you that. However the point of this post was to specifically highlight that the Flyers top skill players are not top players in the league.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 8 @ 12:48 PM ET
Haha Ive been here longer than anyone who still posts and am a season ticket holder....I get some leeway, and if not, Eklund loses revenue.
- MBFlyerfan



Got me beat by a year....was a season ticket holder one year a decade ago.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 8 @ 12:50 PM ET
Well, Toffoli was very good with Carter and Pearson. Would you call that a speedy line?

MTL will play Vegas/Avs. I think they will be eliminated in at most 6 in those match ups.

- PT21



Hab’s have been playing well, but may be over their head next round....but what do I Know?...I gad them getting smoked in 5 in the first round.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 8 @ 12:51 PM ET
I know you are just spitballing, but I think your expectations are way outta whack. You will need to do more than hold 1.5 back and add a mid level prospect for Jake to go. That would lower his salary to 6.75. That's not what he would get in today's market.

Assuming one of JVR/Ghost is taken (best case scenario), the other again does not go without sweeteners. For example, if Ghost was marketable at 4.5m, he would have been picked off waivers. There will need to be some salary withheld. You are certainly not going to get a top 4 defenseman in return. You are at best going to get a bottom pairing guy/bottom 6 forwards, that too marginal, or non-roster players.

And so on.

But here is my simple question. With all those changes, do you expect that team you put forward to be a contender?

- PT21

I posted a part 2 to this initial post that highlights more changes and what a potential lineup could look like with some good trades and FA signings. You may be right about Jake, but I don't think I am that far out of whack. The one thing we can agree on is we need to sweeten the pot for Seattle to take Jake off our hands. Given JVR and Ghost have only two years left on their current deals, I think they are very tradable right now. Ghost can score you 10+ goals in a full hockey season, and that might be worth $9M over two season to one or more teams. I think Ghost will be much more marketable after the expansion draft takes place, if he is not selected by Seattle. I also believe JVR could be palatable to some teams for $14M over two seasons. I guess we'll see shortly how out of whack I am. This would be my approach though.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 8 @ 12:51 PM ET
Ok how do you explain....

TOR: Marner, Matthews and Nylander - havent been past first round dince 2004

EDM: McDavid, Drasaitl and RNH - swept 1st round

WPG: Schiefele, Ehlers, Connor - Swept 2nd round

MON: Anderson, Weber, Price - Going to semis

Is that Montreal core anywhere close to any of the teams above?

How do the Flyers comoare to the Isles who are one game from eliminating Boston?

Stone is very talented sure but the guy hasnt played a full season in his career. He is at least equal to Couturier. Offensivey he is a little better than Couturier but Couturier is the better 2 way player

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


And that’s why they play the games...
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 1:01 PM ET
Hab’s have been playing well, but may be over their head next round....but what do I Know?...I gad them getting smoked in 5 in the first round.
- landros 2


It will be fascinating to see what Toronto does this off season. Nylander is the most tradeable, and yet was their best forward in the playoffs. I think they give it one more go, given that JT was out.

wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jun 8 @ 1:03 PM ET
It will be fascinating to see what Toronto does this off season. Nylander is the most tradeable, and yet was their best forward in the playoffs. I think they give it one more go, given that JT was out.
- PT21


yeah it will be interesting with how each of their starts played. Does JT have a no trade clause?
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jun 8 @ 1:03 PM ET
yeah it will be interesting with how each of their starts played. Does JT have a no trade clause?
- wcorvette


Edit- he does
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 8 @ 1:13 PM ET
I posted a part 2 to this initial post that highlights more changes and what a potential lineup could look like with some good trades and FA signings.
- jd250


Fine, fine, but even with Saad, Fligno, Larsson and all the other guys you want here, tell me this: has a single team won a cup in the last 20 years without at least one absolute stud on top pairing D or first line forwards (usually it's both)?

Blues probably come the closest, but you still have Pietro there.




jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
Please don't erect strawmen just so you can knock it down. I have never, ever said you MUST draft in the top 5 to select an elite player.

People who say: look, Pasta was drafted late first, and Kucherov not at all and Point in the 3rd and so on and so forth, ignore a simple fact of arithmetic. Lets say we are looking at top 5 pick elite players. Well, there are by definition 5 spots in the top 5. There are about 210 spots outside the top 5 for the other superstars to come from.

If x # of elite players come from top 5 draft picks, and y from outside it, then if x and y are equal, it does not mean that you have an equal chance of getting an elite player picking outside the top 5 as you do within it. It means that your chance of getting said elite player is 42 times more likely in the top 5 than outside it.

Those are hugely lopsided odds.

- PT21

But have you looked into the top players in the league right now and how many were drafted top 5 versus outside of it? For example, consider the top 20 scorers from 2019-2020:

Draisaitl - top 5 pick
McDavid - top 5 pick
Pastrnak - outside top 5
Panarin - undrafted
McKinnon - top 5 pick
Marchand - outside of top 5
Kucherov - outside of top 5
Kane - top 5 pick
Matthews - top 5 pick
Eichel - top 5 pick
Huberdeau - top 5 pick
Zibanejad - outside of top 5
Carlson - outside of top 5
Malkin - top 5 pick
Connor - outside of top 5
Scheifele - outside of top 5
Miller - outside of top 5
Ovechkin - top 5 pick
Marner - top 5 picks
Aho - outside of top 5

So its 10 top 5 picks, 10 picks outside of the top 5. This should tell you that picking in the top 5 is not as important as you might think. You are saying that because the pool of top 5 picks is so much smaller than the pool of non top 5 picks, the odds are greater that you will get a generational player in the first 5 picks. No argument here. However, as the Oilers teach us every year, getting a generational player does not mean you will win. I say that you can get a top player (maybe not generational) anywhere in the draft, but certainly in the top 15 of the 1st round, and that is more important in terms of building a team than worrying about getting a generational talent.
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jun 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
You need more than top skill players to win a Cup, I grant you that. However the point of this post was to specifically highlight that the Flyers top skill players are not top players in the league.
- jd250


Voracek, JVR, Giroux all finished above players such as Ovechkin and Nylander. They finished respectively at 64,65 and 67th in the league point wise despite playing on quite a dysfunctional team.

Farabee finished with 20 goals. 2 goals away from Top 25.

The Narrative that we dont have any top skilled players is ridiculous. Do we have anyone at Crosby or McDavid level definitely not but our guys are among the top of the league.

In fact the most successful Flyer teams have been the ones with 6 or more 20 goal scorers.
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