Ben Shelley: Analyzing Alex Iafallo’s contract extension

Way too much money and 2years to long.

Way too much money and 2years to long.
- bmac9758

He will average between 40-55 points and play good defense for 4 years. It’s a good deal. Plus, where else is that money going? You want to spend it on a UFA? Give up futures for a middle 6 guy at AI’s level? All that being said, I’m curious what he would have fetched at the deadline.

Way too much money and 2years to long.
- bmac9748

Agreed. He got rewarded for being rewarded.

He will average between 40-55 points and play good defense for 4 years.
- Only_A_Ladd

If he remains on the top line for the next 4 years so that he can average that, it doesn't bode very well for the success of the rebuild.

I think it was a slight overpay,27 yrs old and and under a half pt a game preformer for his career.imo it should've been 3 yrs at 3 mill.by the time he plays that 3rd season he will be getting pushed further down the lineup with the kids coming.he works hard and does the little things,but is still a 3rd liner playing top line for now.he will probably be expendable before his contract is up,and a tougher sell at 4 mill.

If he remains on the top line for the next 4 years so that he can average that, it doesn't bode very well for the success of the rebuild.
- Osprey

He will be top line again next year. If the kids develop, he’ll get pushed to the middle 6 by the middle of year 2 of that contract/start of year 3.

He will be top line again next year. If the kids develop, he’ll get pushed to the middle 6 by the middle of year 2 of that contract/start of year 3.
- Only_A_Ladd

Once that happens, he probably won't be putting up 40-55pts any more, so using that production to say that it's a good deal doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I think that 50pts, 40pts, 35pts and 30pts during the contract is realistic, based on the assumption that he'll start on the 1st line and eventually end up on the 3rd. Would that production for $4M still be a good deal? For comparison, Moore, Vilardi and Anderson-Dolan are all on pace for 30-40pts and don't make even close to that combined.

Iafallo will continue to play with Kopitar and Brown. By year 3, Kopitar's line will no longer be the top line and by the final year, they'll likely be the 3rd line (yes, I fully expect the Kings to re-sign Brown once his current contract ends).

Apparently the Kings wanted 3 years @ $4M and Iafallo wanted 4 years @ $5M. They compromised and gave him the term he wanted at the AAV the team wanted. Everyone wins.

For a player that the coaching staff consistently lauds as the best player on the ice, this deal is eminently reasonable.

Iafallo will continue to play with Kopitar and Brown. By year 3, Kopitar's line will no longer be the top line and by the final year, they'll likely be the 3rd line (yes, I fully expect the Kings to re-sign Brown once his current contract ends).
- tkecanuck341

I don't think that that's likely. Three of the team's most veteran forwards won't be kept together while the young players are left to themselves. At least one will be moved to another line to give several kids the opportunity to play with vets.

For a player that the coaching staff consistently lauds as the best player on the ice, this deal is eminently reasonable.
- tkecanuck341

Andy Murray once said "Jaroslav Modry is the closest thing to Nik Lidstrom that there is in this league." It didn't make it true.

On an above average team Iafallo would play 12-15 minutes on a third line. These players earn $1.5-2.5 million. In 3-4 years, when the Kings are ready to compete, he will likely be a forth line or fringe player. While this deal may not seem troublesome now, in two or three years when the prospects need to be paid, this contract will be an albatross.

Its unfortunate Blake was unable to find a suitable deal for Iafallo leading up to the deadline. Prospects not obtained at the deadline could have been assets in a few seasons, while Iafoallo will instead be another overpaid declining player. The team up in Vancouver may serve as an omen for such foolish contracts.

I think it was a slight overpay,27 yrs old and and under a half pt a game preformer for his career.imo it should've been 3 yrs at 3 mill.by the time he plays that 3rd season he will be getting pushed further down the lineup with the kids coming.he works hard and does the little things,but is still a 3rd liner playing top line for now.he will probably be expendable before his contract is up,and a tougher sell at 4 mill.
- Dewey8

mo way he would have signed for $3M... look at what Pearson just signed for with Vancouver and look at his stats.....

On an above average team Iafallo would play 12-15 minutes on a third line. These players earn $1.5-2.5 million. In 3-4 years, when the Kings are ready to compete, he will likely be a forth line or fringe player. While this deal may not seem troublesome now, in two or three years when the prospects need to be paid, this contract will be an albatross.

Its unfortunate Blake was unable to find a suitable deal for Iafallo leading up to the deadline. Prospects not obtained at the deadline could have been assets in a few seasons, while Iafoallo will instead be another overpaid declining player. The team up in Vancouver may serve as an omen for such foolish contracts.
- Jackie Daytona

Except most of those bad contracts up in Vancouver were UFA signing's and not contract extensions....

On an above average team Iafallo would play 12-15 minutes on a third line. These players earn $1.5-2.5 million. In 3-4 years, when the Kings are ready to compete, he will likely be a forth line or fringe player. While this deal may not seem troublesome now, in two or three years when the prospects need to be paid, this contract will be an albatross.

Its unfortunate Blake was unable to find a suitable deal for Iafallo leading up to the deadline. Prospects not obtained at the deadline could have been assets in a few seasons, while Iafoallo will instead be another overpaid declining player. The team up in Vancouver may serve as an omen for such foolish contracts.
- Jackie Daytona

Like I wrote above about AI: "All that being said, I’m curious what he would have fetched at the deadline." If Blake was offered an "A" prospect, then it would have been awfully tempting to move Iafallo instead of sign him to a deal.

I think you're pretty low on him, however. He plays good defense and can contribute with scoring. I agree he's middle six, but a straight 3rd liner on an "above average team"? That's harsh. When he's done with this contract, he will be exiting his peak years. He likely won't be replacement level unless he falls off a cliff. The contract isn't an albatross considering the cap situation and where the kids are on their ELC's.