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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Another Devastating Stretch-Drive Defeat
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jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:11 AM ET
Couturier is clearly the Flyers best player. He's a very good two way Selke winning center. Why does it matter where others rank him?
- PLindbergh31

Very true, I don't consider him the problem on this team, but instead part of the solution. He is never going to be Alexander Ovechkin, or even Steve Stamkos. We need to find or develop good skilled players to put around him.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:14 AM ET
Very true, I don't consider him the problem on this team, but instead part of the solution. He is never going to be Alexander Ovechkin, or even Steve Stamkos. We need to find or develop good skilled players to put around him.
- jd250


With all the issues this team has, worrying about Couturier would be like putting a band-aid on a paper cut while your throat has been slit
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:15 AM ET

You're preaching to the choir on this one. He's good. No arguing that. I'm just not one of those fans who gets offended when a player gets "snubbed" by being excluded from a list. idgaf about lists

- Scoob


Sure, sure, given that I know very well how you rock and roll, I believe you.

I watch a lot of non-Flyers games. Not all of it, and flipping here and there, and what I see in Couts is a good to very good player, and a pretty average 1C. Decent, but far from the kind of 1C that you ride to contention. Couturier and Giroux are 2nd line players on a top team. We do not have anyone, at any position, who would slide into the equivalent position in the top teams.

By the way, the link I provided does not sort the way I referred to. So here is a snapshot of the sorted. I crossed out wingers. Stamkos is now exclusively on wing, so should also be crossed out. That makes Couts 18th.

NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:16 AM ET
Why would we give Lyon games? Even if we don’t make the playoffs, Hart is still our goalie of the future. Play him to death.
- SuperSchennBros


The prior statement was about if Elliott was traded. Hart is the future for the Flyers in goal. Regardless of who plays back up, playing a starter every game in this condensed season is asking for significant injury...I can assume I should not take your comment of frustration literally but please...huge mistake to not look out for the health of Hart.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:19 AM ET
“We checked when it was time to check,” Vigneault said. “Didn’t give them a lot of looks. We got some great looks. We weren’t able to finish. They were able to finish. That was the difference. ...

“When you get your opportunities, you’ve got to make the other team pay. When they get opportunities, hopefully you get a save that gives you confidence and momentum. Tonight, both of those opportunities, we’re getting some grade-A looks that we’re not able to bury, and they were able to find the back of the net.”
-Alain Vignault 4/6/2021 Presser

Kind of says it all, doesn't it?
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Apr 7 @ 11:19 AM ET
I think the loss of Niskanen is being entirely overblow IMO. Let's say for the sake of argument that Nisky did not retire and played this year, what would the defense look like? Well, Provorov would play with Niskanen, and I have to think he would seem to play better because he has a solid and steady partner who would cover the myriad of mistakes we now see that Provorov makes. Myers and Sanheim most likely would be your second pair, and they would still suck. Braun would slot down with Ghost on your 3rd pair, and they would be what they are. So would the Flyers really be all that much better with Niskanen in the lineup? A little bit for sure, but I don't think they would magically be a playoff team this year.
- jd250


It’s not that Niskanen was some amazing d man....but he took minutes that are now given to Myers, Sanheim and sometimes Braun...the young guys have kind of wilted under the extra responsibilities and Braun doesn’t have that skill set. I agree that the loss of Niskanen hurt but it’s more that they never replaced him with a similar talent.
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Apr 7 @ 11:25 AM ET
Sure, sure, given that I know very well how you rock and roll, I believe you.

I watch a lot of non-Flyers games. Not all of it, and flipping here and there, and what I see in Couts is a good to very good player, and a pretty average 1C. Decent, but far from the kind of 1C that you ride to contention. Couturier and Giroux are 2nd line players on a top team. We do not have anyone, at any position, who would slide into the equivalent position in the top teams.

By the way, the link I provided does not sort the way I referred to. So here is a snapshot of the sorted. I crossed out wingers. Stamkos is now exclusively on wing, so should also be crossed out. That makes Couts 18th.


- PT21


Thats funny considering Toews is below Couturier and other Cup winning #1 Cs like RoR Kopitar and Backstrom are not listed......


Not to mention many of those listed have never won a Stanley Cup.....
aantny88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Suck it Phaneuf, PA
Joined: 03.14.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:26 AM ET
Kind of says it all, doesn't it?
- jd250


It sure as hell does! Need to score when you get grade A chances (Laughton, Hayes, TK), especially on the PP and get saves when the other team has similar chances, maybe even kill a damn penalty. Neither happened and it's another step back in the standings.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 7 @ 11:26 AM ET
Hart should've definitely had the 2nd Bergeron goal. Marchand easily scored on the SH goal.
- MJL

He was essentially on a break away, how is that a save he should have had? Are you people delusional
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:26 AM ET
Couturier is clearly the Flyers best player. He's a very good two way Selke winning center. Why does it matter where others rank him?
- PLindbergh31


Two reasons:

1. His overvaluation is reflective of a rampant disease of overvaluation that afflicts many here. People like TK, Bee etc are less easy to critique because of smaller sample set, growing pains etc. D-men stats are more opaque.So, I choose Couturier to exemplify the disease.

2. Couts is coming into the last year of his contract. He will demand a huge payday. If the ultimate goal is contention, do you want to ride that boat on this team with Hayes (also an average 2C on a contending club) locked in by definition? And with a young group of guys who will likely not hit their prime before Couts starts to fade?

If he was the same player, and 26, I would say absolutely.

At 30, I would say, absolutely not.Go that route, and you have anchored yourself to the surety of mediocrity for the fear of the downside. Trade him, bite the bullet, and face what is obvious anyway. You are not even in the same timezone as the track of a contending club right now. You are an average to below average club, on a track to staying there. What he brings back could jolt that trajectory at the cost of a few years of hardship.

NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:28 AM ET
It’s not that Niskanen was some amazing d man....but he took minutes that are now given to Myers, Sanheim and sometimes Braun...the young guys have kind of wilted under the extra responsibilities and Braun doesn’t have that skill set. I agree that the loss of Niskanen hurt but it’s more that they never replaced him with a similar talent.
- landros 2


Yes, remember how the team looked at the end of the Hexy/Hak era and under Gordon...eerily similar to now with the goals against and PK struggles. It’s about the hole, it’s a really big hole.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 7 @ 11:29 AM ET
I did NOT post that, instead that is what you interpreted my post to say, which is incorrect! There is a difference between playing "not to lose" and fielding an appropriate line to match what your opponents are doing. That is what a coach is for in the end, otherwise what good are they?
- jd250



That's just spin. That is letting your opponent dictate what players you put out on the PP. That is suggesting to consider defense over offense on a 3rd period PP with the season on the line in a 2-2 game. As I said earlier, if you're up a goal in the 3rd period and on a PP, then you consider putting out two defenseman. The game situation requires that you play offense, not defense. Any coach who does what you suggested, would not be making a smart decision.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:29 AM ET
Thats funny considering Toews is below Couturier and other Cup winning #1 Cs like RoR Kopitar and Backstrom are not listed......


Not to mention many of those listed have never won a Stanley Cup.....

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


What's cup winning got to do with it? It sorts 5-on-50/60 stats of centers now. Its not an opinion.

Eric Staal is cup winning. He is not on the list because his stats don't put him there.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:30 AM ET
Thats funny considering Toews is below Couturier and other Cup winning #1 Cs like RoR Kopitar and Backstrom are not listed......


Not to mention many of those listed have never won a Stanley Cup.....

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


I’m so glad you said it.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:31 AM ET
Two reasons:

1. His overvaluation is reflective of a rampant disease of overvaluation that afflicts many here. People like TK, Bee etc are less easy to critique because of smaller sample set, growing pains etc. D-men stats are more opaque.So, I choose Couturier to exemplify the disease.

2. Couts is coming into the last year of his contract. He will demand a huge payday. If the ultimate goal is contention, do you want to ride that boat on this team with Hayes (also an average 2C on a contending club) locked in by definition? And with a young group of guys who will likely not hit their prime before Couts starts to fade?

If he was the same player, and 26, I would say absolutely.

At 30, I would say, absolutely not.Go that route, and you have anchored yourself to the surety of mediocrity for the fear of the downside. Trade him, bite the bullet, and face what is obvious anyway. You are not even in the same timezone as the track of a contending club right now. You are an average to below average club, on a track to staying there. What he brings back could jolt that trajectory at the cost of a few years of hardship.

- PT21

Interesting points. However the Flyers do want some veteran leadership on this club, right? I would rather the Flyers move on from Jake and G, and see if they can come to terms with Couturier on a team friendly deal and have him be that veteran leader moving forward.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 7 @ 11:31 AM ET
I think people are getting hung up on a ranking, in reality the difference between the center ranked #10 and #20 is really not much at all.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 7 @ 11:32 AM ET
I think the loss of Niskanen is being entirely overblow IMO. Let's say for the sake of argument that Nisky did not retire and played this year, what would the defense look like? Well, Provorov would play with Niskanen, and I have to think he would seem to play better because he has a solid and steady partner who would cover the myriad of mistakes we now see that Provorov makes. Myers and Sanheim most likely would be your second pair, and they would still suck. Braun would slot down with Ghost on your 3rd pair, and they would be what they are. So would the Flyers really be all that much better with Niskanen in the lineup? A little bit for sure, but I don't think they would magically be a playoff team this year.
- jd250


Not that you're wrong but for weeks and weeks you were clamoring that the Flyers needed to trade for Ekholm. That they needed another defenseman. Now having Niskanen wouldn't have mattered. Your post is still filled with hyperbole stating that Sanheim and Myers both suck. Simply false.


NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:32 AM ET
What's cup winning got to do with it? It sorts 5-on-50/60 stats of centers now. Its not an opinion.

Eric Staal is cup winning. He is not on the list because his stats don't put him there.

- PT21


Everything....

PT....your posts are Groundhog Day.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:33 AM ET
That's just spin. That is letting your opponent dictate what players you put out on the PP. That is suggesting to consider defense over offense on a 3rd period PP with the season on the line in a 2-2 game. As I said earlier, if you're up a goal in the 3rd period and on a PP, then you consider putting out two defenseman. The game situation requires that you play offense, not defense. Any coach who does what you suggested, would not be making a smart decision.
- MJL

Ok, we disagree. If I am the coach and I know Bergeron and Marchand are killing the penalty, I am not putting Jake on the point on the PP.
aantny88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Suck it Phaneuf, PA
Joined: 03.14.2008

Apr 7 @ 11:34 AM ET
He was essentially on a break away, how is that a save he should have had? Are you people delusional
- ClaudeFather


What the average save % for goalies in the shootout? I'd venture to say somewhere around 70% (the best around around 80%). That means shooters only score on 3 out of every 10 break away opportunities, so goalies clearly have the advantage in that situation.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 7 @ 11:35 AM ET
Sure. He can be very good but not among the top half.

Its a competitive, zero-sum game though. Non-relative comparisons are meaningless, are they not.

Btw, I posted a stat 2 days ago, which I am not sure you saw. I cut and paste the relevant parts:

1. Look at the years 2017/18 through now, which is the peak of Couturier's career, with a minimum of 1800 mins played over this span (I chose that window to include some of the younger players). This period is tilted in favor of Couts because it includes his peak years but other players, in particular Point, Aho, and Petersson are very young at this stage and Toews is getting old.

2. Look at 5 on 5 stats normalized over 60 mins, which is far more revealing than ES stats (the latter includes OT, 4 on 4, PK with the goalie pulled and so on), as 5 on 5 is really what we mean when we think of ES.

3. Look only at active centers. Exclude players who have played on wing and center (like Panarin, Marchand, Giroux). I keep Aho and Stamkos, because they are mostly centers and would be called as such today.

Couturier then ranks 18th on that list.

Note, this is right around where he ranks in the nhl.com survey of analysts (he was 17th last year and 18th this year).

- PT21



You still have not documented how Couturier ranks 18th using "normalized" 5 on 5 stats.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 7 @ 11:36 AM ET
Not that you're wrong but for weeks and weeks you were clamoring that the Flyers needed to trade for Ekholm. That they needed another defenseman. Now having Niskanen wouldn't have mattered. Your post is still filled with hyperbole stating that Sanheim and Myers both suck. Simply false.
- MJL

Listen, I have stated and will continue to state that if the Flyers could obtain a truly legitimate top 4 defenseman like Ekholm, they should do it regardless of where they are in the standings. This would be a step in the right direction for a team that desperately needs legitimate top 4 defenseman right now. You can keep walking the plank and defending Sanheim and Myers if you want, but you are going to have to eventually face the fact that they both SUCK with a capital 'S'!
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 7 @ 11:36 AM ET
What the average save % for goalies in the shootout? I'd venture to say somewhere around 70% (the best around around 80%). That means shooters only score on 3 out of every 10 break away opportunities, so goalies clearly have the advantage in that situation.
- aantny88

Essentially * he had to deal with a two on one and a great pass was made where he had to slide and adjust, the shooter faked a shot, got him moving and scored 5 hole. If you think he SHOULD have saved that you are a moron
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 7 @ 11:39 AM ET
He was essentially on a break away, how is that a save he should have had? Are you people delusional
- ClaudeFather


So are you saying that on breakaways, the shooter should always score? In the shootout, what is the top scorer's shooting percentage? How about on breakaway's in games. What is the average SV%?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 7 @ 11:39 AM ET
So are you saying that on breakaways, the shooter should always score? In the shootout, what is the top scorer's shooting percentage? How about on breakaway's in games. What is the average SV%?
- MJL

See post above
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