Michael Stuart: Mike's Mailbag: Expansion Draft, Finding the Right Goalie, and More!

Good blog, and thanks for answering. I think several of the UND prospects will turn pro with their season done.

Maybe one or two get a look this season in Ottawa?

Is anyone else somewhat concerned regarding Brown's inability to stay healthy? Is it just me or does it seem that he is always injured which appears to keep setting him back.

ANA and DET win

Race for 30th

30. ANA - 11-19-6 --> 28 pts --- 20 GR
29. OTT - 12-20-4 --> 28 pts --- 20 GR
28. DET - 12-20-4 --> 28 pts --- 20 GR
27. NJD - 12-16-4 --> 28 pts (24 games remaining)

Is this the draft year where it is just too hard to evaluate prospects due to the lack of ongoing play. Even less guarantees this year that the top pick will be the best player down the road.

Is this the draft year where it is just too hard to evaluate prospects due to the lack of ongoing play. Even less guarantees this year that the top pick will be the best player down the road.
- spatso

Well said, you nailed it!

It’s certainly a blessing in disguise in the sense that we’ve had a chance to see young goalies like Gustavsson and Daccord play NHL minutes. The goaltending story for this team to start the year was basically a consistent bad news story; that’s since turned around, in large part thanks to these young players coming up and doing their thing at a high level. There’s a renewed optimism about the future in the crease.

Much like many young MLB pithcers, it is relevant to consider that it is not unusual for unspectacular goaltenders to have incredible brief but successful starts to their careers. Teams often do not bother poring over the tapes of unknown goaltenders. Usually, once opponents have properly reviewed the play and style of these goalies they can find easily exploitable weaknesses. In this case, it is unlikely opponents have yet bothered spending much time studying either Gus or Cord. Gustavsson is generally understood to be a 2B goalie and it is much too early to make a call on Daccord. Hopefully Daccord truly has a great future, but it is foolish to be overly optimistic at this point.

Is this the draft year where it is just too hard to evaluate prospects due to the lack of ongoing play. Even less guarantees this year that the top pick will be the best player down the road.
- spatso

Small sample sizes will make it very interesting. I know we've discussed the need for a center (among other rhings), but man is Guenther looking good right now.

I think in an ideal fantasy world, we'd get Seattle to take Murray by sweetening the pot with Logan Brown.

I think in an ideal fantasy world, we'd get Seattle to take Murray by sweetening the pot with Logan Brown.
- Bartacus

that's not NEARLY enough pot sweetening to get them to take on that contract

Is anyone else somewhat concerned regarding Brown's inability to stay healthy? Is it just me or does it seem that he is always injured which appears to keep setting him back.
- HoweHatrick

Somewhat concerned? Injuries have plagued Brown to the extent that he's literally never played a full season since he was drafted.

2016/17 - 35GP (OHL)
2017/18 - 36GP (OHL/NHL)
2018/19 - 58GP (AHL/NHL)
2019/20 - 48GP (AHL/NHL)
2020/21 - 5GP (AHL)

He also seems to be failing to address weaknesses in his game, and has been effectively victory-lapped by Norris. Starting the year with just 1A in5GP doesn't exactly help matters, which makes it entirely possible that Brown could become an intriguing trade chip in a potential expansion draft trade, if a team finds themselves at risk of losing a quality player in the process.

Wolanin traded for Amadio.

Why LA did that when they could have just claimed him?

Wolanin traded for Amadio.
Why LA did that when they could have just claimed him?
- david22

My guess is that it probably saves the Kings the risk of having to waive him, if their initial plan is to send him down to the AHL (vs. making the trade, and then losing him to waivers). Amadio has been pretty good at the AHL level, but probably has little more than #4C upside. That said, he did take 480 FO for the Kings last year with pretty even OZ/NZ/DZ distribution and a 48.3% win rate, and was 4th on the Kings this year in FO taken and a 51.0% win rate.

Regardless, I'm pretty sure nobody is going to like this trade, if only because of the irony of Wolanin being the only D-man they lose in the numbers game (vs. Coburn, Brown, Reilly, Gudbranson, etc). On the flip side, it suggests Dorion is trying to make some deadline moves, so I guess we'll see what happens. Anisimov was just put on waivers as well, so maybe that's now code for pack your bags.

Somewhat concerned? Injuries have plagued Brown to the extent that he's literally never played a full season since he was drafted.

2016/17 - 35GP (OHL)
2017/18 - 36GP (OHL/NHL)
2018/19 - 58GP (AHL/NHL)
2019/20 - 48GP (AHL/NHL)
2020/21 - 5GP (AHL)

He also seems to be failing to address weaknesses in his game, and has been effectively victory-lapped by Norris. Starting the year with just 1A in5GP doesn't exactly help matters, which makes it entirely possible that Brown could become an intriguing trade chip in a potential expansion draft trade, if a team finds themselves at risk of losing a quality player in the process.
- khawk

I haven't paid any attention the the B Sens so those numbers are far worse than I had thought. Yikes.

As long as Dorion and this coaching staff are in place I don't expect the Sens to be any better than a bubble team in 3 years from now. They have some good pieces that'll get better in the future but it won't be enough and they'll most likely underachieve. With the same people in charge fumbling their way around, it'll still be amateur hour.

that's not NEARLY enough pot sweetening to get them to take on that contract
- sensarmy_11

You never know... Maybe Seattle hires Millbury as an AGM

As long as Dorion and this coaching staff are in place I don't expect the Sens to be any better than a bubble team in 3 years from now. They have some good pieces that'll get better in the future but it won't be enough and they'll most likely underachieve. With the same people in charge fumbling their way around, it'll still be amateur hour.
- granpa

What?? 🤦‍♂️
If they get the goaltending they should get they will be a better team then you think
Did ya know from feb11-mar28 Toronto has 2points less then Ottawa
If we didn’t nose dive at the beginning we be in a different spot now

As long as Dorion and this coaching staff are in place I don't expect the Sens to be any better than a bubble team in 3 years from now. They have some good pieces that'll get better in the future but it won't be enough and they'll most likely underachieve. With the same people in charge fumbling their way around, it'll still be amateur hour.
- granpa

This isn't really a terrible take. He's a great amateur scout and a terrible evaluator of PRO talent and needs. And really that is what will push this team over the top when the kids mature. Those two or three final pieces to get you past the ECF and into the big dance.

What?? 🤦‍♂️
If they get the goaltending they should get they will be a better team then you think
Did ya know from feb11-mar28 Toronto has 2points less then Ottawa
If we didn’t nose dive at the beginning we be in a different spot now
- sens4life1971

The North division is not very good so the little success the Sens are having this year is not enough to convince me otherwise. Next year it'll be the regular NHL alignment and much more difficult plus it's safe to assume that moving ahead Dorion & CO. will make more bad decisions.

This isn't really a terrible take. He's a great amateur scout and a terrible evaluator of PRO talent and needs. And really that is what will push this team over the top when the kids mature. Those two or three final pieces to get you past the ECF and into the big dance.
- Octavarium

Agreed - Dorion is very Jim Benning-esque in this manner. Great amateur scout - especially considering Ottawa's league lowest scouting budget. He's not terrible on the FA market, though that may be because he doesn't get the green light to spend money on it. Dorion has actually done an exemplary job getting assets for players going out, but he has been abysmal when it comes to trading to bring players in. This gets magnified because he makes a lot of trades. He traded some real assets for known dead weight - prime castoff candidates this past season. A second for Stepan? A second for Murray? Trading for Gudbranson? AZ, ANA and PIT were all *right* against the cap and *needed* to shed those contracts for roster flexibility. IF we are going to be a budget team, leverage that budget and take those desperate trading partners to the cleaners - don't pretend like trading for those guys is to help our team now, because anybody looking at the players' metrics before those trades were made could have told you that's not the case.

What?? 🤦‍♂️
If they get the goaltending they should get they will be a better team then you think
Did ya know from feb11-mar28 Toronto has 2points less then Ottawa
If we didn’t nose dive at the beginning we be in a different spot now
- sens4life1971

Every game counts should be a lesson well learnt this season. Although the defense worries me more then goaltending.
I would protect gustavo. Out of all them. Goaltending is a crapshoot right now. No one has played enough to say thats the guy.. its kind of problematic. Although i liked Murray ( and still like him as a backup , half price would have been ideal) i agree now in hindsight it would have been better to run with prospects and figure out what you have. Now they still dont know and are in tough to chose who to protect
Next year i do believe they will be fighting for a playoff. If not watch the fireworks show. The meldor plan will be under full on scrutiny.

What?? 🤦‍♂️
If they get the goaltending they should get they will be a better team then you think
Did ya know from feb11-mar28 Toronto has 2points less then Ottawa
If we didn’t nose dive at the beginning we be in a different spot now
- sens4life1971

I'm not as down as some on the current team, but the nose dive you're referring to was essentially self-inflicted by Dorion/Smith, because they insisted on overplaying veteran players that proved to be highly ineffective. Also, the lack of quality on the blue line is almost ridiculous... Zaitsev, Reilly, and Gudbranson are spare parts on most teams, not 75% of the top-4 defence. Until the likes of Sanderson, Bernard-Docker, Thomson, and Brannstrom are regular features on defence, this team won't be going anywhere fast.

Shayne Gostisbehere is on waivers... given the $hit-show bonanza of the current d-corps, I'd be inclined to take a chance on him. The move costs nothing but the waivers claim, "Ghost-Zub" might be enough to bump Reilly-Gudbranson down to the 3rd pairing (where they belong), and Dorion/Melnyk will enjoy that he's paid $3.25M/year vs. a $4.5M/yr cap hit. At worst, it would be a try-out to see if he's a good fit with the team, and there's just 2 years of term left - which could make him quite useful if Sanderson stays another year at North Dakota. And if he's really not working out, they could always leave him exposed at the Seattle draft... plus, the nature of his contract makes even a potential 2yr buyout very manageable (4yrs x $0.3M).