I must confess, my "what if" right now is "what if we didn't sign Tavares, kept Kadri, and used the money on D."
- Atomic Wedgie
Here, let's take a look at the events and opportunities there:
Coming out of 2017-18, our roster was:
Hyman - Matthews - Marner
JVR - Kadri - Nylander
Marleau - Bozak - Brown
Komarov / Gauthier / Moore / Kapanen / Johnsson / Martin
Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick - Polak - Borgman
Going into Free Agency, we would lose or trade: JVR, Bozak, Martin, Komarov, Polak and Carrick (technically this was October 1, 2018)
Coming into 2018
IN: Ennis, Ozhiganov, Lindholm, Sparks; we don't sign Tavares
Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Kadri - Nylander
Marleau - ??? - Kapanen
Ennis - Gauthier - Brown (Petan /Lindholm)
Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Ozhiganov / Marincin / Holl
In Season Trade: Acquire Muzzin for Moore(+) and Petan in for Lindholm.
There is $11m in capspace available. We're keeping Kadri, but we need a 3rd line centre. Realistic (based on them leaving their original teams, so Couture, for example, is excluded) UFA options available are:
- Stastny (32yo, $6.5m x 3),
- Bozak (32yo, $5m x 3),
- Beagle (32yo, $3m x 4),
- Riley Nash (29yo, $2.75m x 3),
- Brodziak (34yo, $1.15m x 2);
Let's say that instead we go shopping for a traded centre in this same period -
Galchenuyk for Domi happened (Domi was @ $3.15m x 2);
O'Rielly ($7.5m x 5 remaining) was traded for garbage (Sobotka, Berglund & Tage Thompson) + 1st & 2021 2nd
So they either keep Bozak at $5m or, if he was being shopped, we get Domi out of Arizona for someone like Kapanen - but it would have left around $6-7m on the cap. Maybe you get someone like a Beagle or Nash at around $3m because they're functionally able to play 3rd line, but that's an overpayment on Beagle or Bozak. If we want to avoid the crunch that forced us to drop Brown, lose a 1st for Marleau, and ultimately lose Johnsson and Kapanen, then we're still not looking at a massive defensive upgrade (although I would bet that both Matthews & Marner come in $1m cheaper each without the Tavares contract as a benchmark) - but let's ignore that for a moment and say that most defensive options available in 2018 through UFA would likely have ended up being a mistake:
- Doughty (28yo, $11m x 8),
- McDonagh (29yo, $6.75m x 7),
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (26yo, $8.25m x 8),
- Hjalmarsson (31yo, $5m x 2),
- Johnson (31yo, $3.25m x 5),
- DeHaan (27yo, $4.55m x 4),
- Ellis (27yo, $6.25m x 8)
-- by the way, all names listed there with the exception of DeHaan and Johnson were resigned by their former team.
The only real notable defensive trade that happened was Hanifin and Lindholm to Calgary for Hamilton, Ferland and Fox. I don't think we had the currency to be in on either end of that trade.
So while I wonder myself what could have been, when you lay out the options before you, outside of maybe jumping in on Domi or jumping in on O'Rielly, I'm not sure what we could or would have done differently that would have been as beneficial as signing Tavares. There just wasn't a dearth of defensive options available.