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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs loan Hollowell to Finnish club
Author Message
Mike Augello
Commissioner
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 06.25.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:17 PM ET
Mike Augello: Leafs loan Hollowell to Finnish club
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 28 @ 2:18 PM ET
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 2:18 PM ET
Mike Augello: Leafs loan Hollowell to Finnish club
- mikeinbuffalo


fist


edit: Nope..
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Oct 28 @ 2:18 PM ET
Mike Augello: Leafs loan Hollowell to Finnish club
- mikeinbuffalo



Must be an empty feeling.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:25 PM ET
Mike Augello: Leafs loan Hollowell to Finnish club
- mikeinbuffalo

Finnish Second League.

Yikes.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Oct 28 @ 2:26 PM ET
Finnish Second League.

Yikes.

- Atomic Wedgie


Should be playing in the AHL
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:31 PM ET
2021 Boston Marathon postponed until "at least the Fall."

It was supposed to be on April 19th, 2021.

Not directly related to NHL, but still not a good sign.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Oct 28 @ 2:31 PM ET
Since I typed it, I'll repost it in this new blog:

Are we talking playoff success as well?

I think his regular season model has worked quite well because offence and skill has proved to be more valuable in the regular season.

I think he’s been pretty accurate the past few years considering his competitors.

- Santo_44


Let's put it this way, I guess - overall the teams that his model identifies are top-tier teams is not that far off and typically has them somewhat accurate. I think a lot of this has to do with the way his model looks at individual players' contributions and how those contributions would roll up to an aggregated amount. It makes sense - a team with more star players would have a better sum. Also a team with more star players is likely a better team.

From the Leafs' perspective, no model was going to predict the Andersen we got in net, the fact that Barrie didn't even provide offense, which is really his only value, nor would it have predicted long absences from Rielly and Muzzin - nor how the increased role of negatively contributing players like Ceci would have affected the outcome. So you can't exactly throw that in Dom's face about how his model was wrong about the Leafs.

That said, he did completely fail to predict the pandemic, so we'd be wholly remiss if we didn't hold him responsible for this pretty glaring omission.

In general last year the following teams outperformed his model by 5 wins or more (considering proration to an 82 game schedule): Philadelphia, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton and Washington. The following teams underperformed his model by 5 wins or more: Toronto, Anaheim, New Jersey, San Jose and by a whopping 28.6 points - Detroit.

So by that token you can say that over 60% of his projections were within a relative limit. That's not bad. If I'm looking at the above - Carter Hart was probably better than expected in Philly, and the team outperformed it's expected goals by a fairly decent margin. As Pat said, and I think everyone agrees with - Boston continues to defy logic in terms of declining play. No one thought Edmonton would play that well, and I still doubt they'll do it again this upcoming season. I also thought Washington would decline, but they did surprisingly well. I did think Colorado would be a good team, so I was surprised his model was low on them. I also think everyone kind of expected a real poor performance from Anaheim and San Jose, so I don't know why his model was so kind to those teams.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 28 @ 2:32 PM ET
Should be playing in the AHL
- TheMussel


Playing in the what?
21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Oct 28 @ 2:35 PM ET
If the whole season is cancelled, the draft order should be the same again. That's very fair!
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 2:35 PM ET
Since I typed it, I'll repost it in this new blog:



Let's put it this way, I guess - overall the teams that his model identifies are top-tier teams is not that far off and typically has them somewhat accurate. I think a lot of this has to do with the way his model looks at individual players' contributions and how those contributions would roll up to an aggregated amount. It makes sense - a team with more star players would have a better sum. Also a team with more star players is likely a better team.

From the Leafs' perspective, no model was going to predict the Andersen we got in net, the fact that Barrie didn't even provide offense, which is really his only value, nor would it have predicted long absences from Rielly and Muzzin - nor how the increased role of negatively contributing players like Ceci would have affected the outcome. So you can't exactly throw that in Dom's face about how his model was wrong about the Leafs.

That said, he did completely fail to predict the pandemic, so we'd be wholly remiss if we didn't hold him responsible for this pretty glaring omission.

In general last year the following teams outperformed his model by 5 wins or more (considering proration to an 82 game schedule): Philadelphia, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton and Washington. The following teams underperformed his model by 5 wins or more: Toronto, Anaheim, New Jersey, San Jose and by a whopping 28.6 points - Detroit.

So by that token you can say that over 60% of his projections were within a relative limit. That's not bad. If I'm looking at the above - Carter Hart was probably better than expected in Philly, and the team outperformed it's expected goals by a fairly decent margin. As Pat said, and I think everyone agrees with - Boston continues to defy logic in terms of declining play. No one thought Edmonton would play that well, and I still doubt they'll do it again this upcoming season. I also thought Washington would decline, but they did surprisingly well. I did think Colorado would be a good team, so I was surprised his model was low on them. I also think everyone kind of expected a real poor performance from Anaheim and San Jose, so I don't know why his model was so kind to those teams.

- Monkeypunk


This is the year, Boston struggles...At least I hope so.. It's not a prediction... I just want them to fail.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 2:35 PM ET
If the whole season is cancelled, the draft order should be the same again. That's very fair!
- 21peter


rigging 2 drafts in a row? That's pretty crafty...
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:36 PM ET
If the whole season is cancelled, the draft order should be the same again. That's very fair!
- 21peter

21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Oct 28 @ 2:38 PM ET
rigging 2 drafts in a row? That's pretty crafty...
- PatC80


PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 2:43 PM ET


- 21peter



if there is one person that could do it, with a smile and while saying "frank you Toronto", it's definitely him
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 28 @ 2:47 PM ET
Here’s a little (big) wrinkle in getting back to play. The MOU to the CBA that the League and PA signed said that players will receive 72% of their salary for the upcoming season.

It doesn’t say that they will receive a proportional 72% share of however many games they actually play, even if they only play one game. The League is saying, well you kind of know what we meant. The PA is saying, that’s not how contracts work.

Oh, oh Gary
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 2:51 PM ET
Here’s a little (big) wrinkle in getting back to play. The MOU to the CBA that the League and PA signed said that players will receive 72% of their salary for the upcoming season.

It doesn’t say that they will receive a proportional 72% share of however many games they actually play, even if they only play one game. The League is saying, well you kind of know what we meant. The PA is saying, that’s not how contracts work.

Oh, oh Gary

- Canada Cup


Not saying that it would happen, or that it could even happen. but a lock-out during a global pandemic would be such an NHL move
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Oct 28 @ 2:53 PM ET
Since I typed it, I'll repost it in this new blog:



Let's put it this way, I guess - overall the teams that his model identifies are top-tier teams is not that far off and typically has them somewhat accurate. I think a lot of this has to do with the way his model looks at individual players' contributions and how those contributions would roll up to an aggregated amount. It makes sense - a team with more star players would have a better sum. Also a team with more star players is likely a better team.

From the Leafs' perspective, no model was going to predict the Andersen we got in net, the fact that Barrie didn't even provide offense, which is really his only value, nor would it have predicted long absences from Rielly and Muzzin - nor how the increased role of negatively contributing players like Ceci would have affected the outcome. So you can't exactly throw that in Dom's face about how his model was wrong about the Leafs.

That said, he did completely fail to predict the pandemic, so we'd be wholly remiss if we didn't hold him responsible for this pretty glaring omission.

In general last year the following teams outperformed his model by 5 wins or more (considering proration to an 82 game schedule): Philadelphia, Boston, Colorado, Edmonton and Washington. The following teams underperformed his model by 5 wins or more: Toronto, Anaheim, New Jersey, San Jose and by a whopping 28.6 points - Detroit.

So by that token you can say that over 60% of his projections were within a relative limit. That's not bad. If I'm looking at the above - Carter Hart was probably better than expected in Philly, and the team outperformed it's expected goals by a fairly decent margin. As Pat said, and I think everyone agrees with - Boston continues to defy logic in terms of declining play. No one thought Edmonton would play that well, and I still doubt they'll do it again this upcoming season. I also thought Washington would decline, but they did surprisingly well. I did think Colorado would be a good team, so I was surprised his model was low on them. I also think everyone kind of expected a real poor performance from Anaheim and San Jose, so I don't know why his model was so kind to those teams.

- Monkeypunk


To be fair he points out where he thinks his model could be inaccurate...

But I also think what you mentioned about Andersen having a horrible year is impossible to predict without completely guessing. A lot more goes into how a players season goes well beyond our knowledge. Fans aren't filled in on many things such as a players mental health or physical health. Was Rielly hurt for the majority of the season? Absolutely looked like it but we are entirely speculating.

Also it is very hard to judge how a player fits...Eric Staal goes to the Rangers in his prime and looks like a 4th liner.

His model provides us with an evaluation of talent. Going into this season are the Leafs the 5th most talented team? That is probably pretty close give or take. If I am a betting man I am betting the Leafs finish around the top 5. Sadly any model or prediction will never be perfect, or else gambling companies would be bankrupt.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Oct 28 @ 2:55 PM ET
This is the year, Boston struggles...At least I hope so.. It's not a prediction... I just want them to fail.
- PatC80

Aaaaaand they wont even be in the Leafs division

I agree though, I see them in the middle of the pack but still will be a heavy cup threat come playoff time.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:56 PM ET
Here’s a little (big) wrinkle in getting back to play. The MOU to the CBA that the League and PA signed said that players will receive 72% of their salary for the upcoming season.

It doesn’t say that they will receive a proportional 72% share of however many games they actually play, even if they only play one game. The League is saying, well you kind of know what we meant. The PA is saying, that’s not how contracts work.

Oh, oh Gary

- Canada Cup

Where are you getting this from?

It's weird - I haven't seen a single story about what happens if there are no games.

It may be that nobody knows, but then there should be some articles saying "nobody knows what happens if there are no games."
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 28 @ 2:57 PM ET
Not saying that it would happen, or that it could even happen. but a lock-out during a global pandemic would be such an NHL move
- PatC80


Some owners are already wondering about having a season when they know they’re going to lose $. So far, Gary has convinced them it’s better to play than go dark for a whole year. If they lose too much .........
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:58 PM ET
To be fair he points out where he thinks his model could be inaccurate...

But I also think what you mentioned about Andersen having a horrible year is impossible to predict without completely guessing. A lot more goes into how a players season goes well beyond our knowledge. Fans aren't filled in on many things such as a players mental health or physical health. Was Rielly hurt for the majority of the season? Absolutely looked like it but we are entirely speculating.

Also it is very hard to judge how a player fits...Eric Staal goes to the Rangers in his prime and looks like a 4th liner.

His model provides us with an evaluation of talent. Going into this season are the Leafs the 5th most talented team? That is probably pretty close give or take. If I am a betting man I am betting the Leafs finish around the top 5. Sadly any model or prediction will never be perfect, or else gambling companies would be bankrupt.

- Santo_44

As the man in the Palmy mask said in the last thread, I think the whole shebang is too heavily weighted on offence.

I prefer to form my opinions the old fashioned way: getting drunk and angry while watching a game, and then irrationally holding on to whatever thoughts I had the night before (and still remember).
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 28 @ 2:59 PM ET
Where are you getting this from?

It's weird - I haven't seen a single story about what happens if there are no games.

It may be that nobody knows, but then there should be some articles saying "nobody knows what happens if there are no games."

- Atomic Wedgie


Here’s an article about pro rata. Mike Johnson was asking Lebrun about it when a call cut out car radio. Lebrun was also talking about some owners being skittish about playing anyway.

https://thecanadian.news/...oint-in-the-negotiations/
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Oct 28 @ 2:59 PM ET
Here’s an article about pro rata. Mike Johnson was asking Lebrun about it when a call cut out car radio. Lebrun was also talking about some owners being skittish about playing anyway.

https://thecanadian.news/...oint-in-the-negotiations/

- Canada Cup

Thanks
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 28 @ 3:00 PM ET
Aaaaaand they wont even be in the Leafs division

I agree though, I see them in the middle of the pack but still will be a heavy cup threat come playoff time.

- Santo_44


I hope they finish 24th overall and out of the playoffs
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