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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Line Combos Tweaks, Hayes, Bubble vs. Fishbowl, Home Ice & More
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Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 31 @ 8:49 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Line Combos Tweaks, Hayes, Bubble vs. Fishbowl, Home Ice & More
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 31 @ 9:26 AM ET
I wish there was a parental setting for these playoffs. Without fans I want the mics turned up to hear all the chirps.
Kooleus
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA (home of King Alex), CA
Joined: 11.17.2018

Jul 31 @ 9:26 AM ET
Hi Bill. Nice news on Hayes. I guess he was good for something. Tanner has been writing about how he's extremely overpaid, and all of the advanced stats shows that he was hurting the Flyers. My eye test said he was a great fit that stabilized the forward group, but the advanced stats are never wrong.
bruceflyers
Joined: 06.16.2012

Jul 31 @ 9:37 AM ET
Hi Bill. Nice news on Hayes. I guess he was good for something. Tanner has been writing about how he's extremely overpaid, and all of the advanced stats shows that he was hurting the Flyers. My eye test said he was a great fit that stabilized the forward group, but the advanced stats are never wrong.
- Kooleus

Analytics is just a tool.
It will never replace scouts, managers and coaches that have a great feel for the game...which most fans don’t have.
If building a baseball champion could be done with sabermetrics then billy beane would have about 10 world series rings by now.

Instead...of course...he has none.

Analytics appeals to fans because it creates the impression that with the right amount of statistical analysis that they too are great amateur general managers...living in their grandma’s basement...slurping endless boxes of cold cereal.

They’re not.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 31 @ 9:38 AM ET
Hi Bill. Nice news on Hayes. I guess he was good for something. Tanner has been writing about how he's extremely overpaid, and all of the advanced stats shows that he was hurting the Flyers. My eye test said he was a great fit that stabilized the forward group, but the advanced stats are never wrong.
- Kooleus


I don't want to spend an entire day pooping on Kevin Hayes. Good for him on the nomination, he’s been very good for us. My question is, don’t any of you feel like too much is made of Hayes and not enough credit is given to Matt Niskanen? I feel like I hear Hayes’ name too much and Niskanen’s not enough.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 31 @ 9:39 AM ET
Analytics is just a tool.
It will never replace scouts, managers and coaches that have a great feel for the game...which most fans don’t have.
If building a baseball champion could be done with sabermetrics then billy beane would have about 10 world series rings by now.

Instead...of course...he has none.

Analytics appeals to fans because it creates the impression that with the right amount of statistical analysis that they too are great amateur general managers...living in their grandma’s basement...slurping endless boxes of cold cereal.

They’re not.

- bruceflyers

I think advanced stats in most cases find away to make something better than what it is. If you really have to look for it, it’s probably not there.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 31 @ 9:41 AM ET
Hi Bill. Nice news on Hayes. I guess he was good for something. Tanner has been writing about how he's extremely overpaid, and all of the advanced stats shows that he was hurting the Flyers. My eye test said he was a great fit that stabilized the forward group, but the advanced stats are never wrong.
- Kooleus


Hayes added greatly to the forecheck, to the PK (alleviating that duty from Claude Giroux and being generally excellent at it), to PP2, to making sure the team didn't really feel the absence of Nolan Patrick in what they had hoped last summer would be Patrick's breakout year (instead, he never had so much as a full-contact practice, let alone a game), and to the locker room environment (Hayes keeps everyone loose, which the team often lacked).

Other than those "little" things, yeah, he was overrated.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 31 @ 9:44 AM ET
I don't want to spend an entire day pooping on Kevin Hayes. Good for him on the nomination, he’s been very good for us. My question is, don’t any of you feel like too much is made of Hayes and not enough credit is given to Matt Niskanen? I feel like I hear Hayes’ name too much and Niskanen’s not enough.
- SuperSchennBros


Niskanen's addition has been huge. He's enabled the coaches to better slot the pairings. He had a very strong two-way season. He helps instill a sense of calm. He's been a great D partner for Provorov. Also had a good year on PP2.

To a lesser but still important extent, Justin Braun has provided some of the same elements.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 31 @ 9:45 AM ET
Its just my own personal feeling, but I want Ghost in over Hagg.

If he is indeed healthy and playing at his best, he is heads and shoulders above Hagg, and having a player like that on your third pair and QBing the PP1 could really be a game changer.
bruceflyers
Joined: 06.16.2012

Jul 31 @ 9:49 AM ET
I think advanced stats in most cases find away to make something better than what it is. If you really have to look for it, it’s probably not there.
- SuperSchennBros

Agreed.
mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

Jul 31 @ 9:55 AM ET
Hayes added greatly to the forecheck, to the PK (alleviating that duty from Claude Giroux and being generally excellent at it), to PP2, to making sure the team didn't really feel the absence of Nolan Patrick in what they had hoped last summer would be Patrick's breakout year (instead, he never had so much as a full-contact practice, let alone a game), and to the locker room environment (Hayes keeps everyone loose, which the team often lacked).

Other than those "little" things, yeah, he was overrated.

- bmeltzer


He will never live up to the contract at least statistically. But he has been a true leader for this team. They are a better team with him and that is all that really matters.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 31 @ 10:01 AM ET
Its just my own personal feeling, but I want Ghost in over Hagg.

If he is indeed healthy and playing at his best, he is heads and shoulders above Hagg, and having a player like that on your third pair and QBing the PP1 could really be a game changer.

- MBFlyerfan


When Ghost is on top of his game -- skating well with unhindered lateral movement, breaking up plays in the NZ, picking his spots on when to pinch, getting his shots on net, making good outlet passes-- he can still be very effective.

He won't go back to PP1 any time soon. That is Provorov's job now. Gostisbehere is significantly better at generating zone entries and is excellent at keeps. However, he's also more likely to miss the net on a wild howitzer that rims out or to cough up a shorthanded odd-man.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 31 @ 10:11 AM ET
I would like to add about Hayes - he plays with a lot of offensive flair at the 2C. He is far from a sniper and far from an elite passer, but he is good up close to the net and he makes his way there, creating space for his line mates. He plays with a lot of confidence that has rubbed off on the 2nd line. They don't play like complementary bit parts.

In that regard, I am pleasantly surprised with how Laughton has started to play that way too. Konecny, of course, was born that way. He doesn't have to acquire it. He played like that from his first shift.

All in all, our 2nd line is, for the first time in a decade, just as much a threat to score as the first. We have two lines that are threats, and a 3rd line with dangerous players. Boy when was the last time we had that?
Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jul 31 @ 10:17 AM ET
I don't want to spend an entire day pooping on Kevin Hayes. Good for him on the nomination, he’s been very good for us. My question is, don’t any of you feel like too much is made of Hayes and not enough credit is given to Matt Niskanen? I feel like I hear Hayes’ name too much and Niskanen’s not enough.
- SuperSchennBros


No, plenty have mentioned Niskanen. People overreact to everything Hayes does to mess with you.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Jul 31 @ 10:17 AM ET
I think everyone can agree every offseason addition made a positive impact: Nisky, Braun, Hayes and Pitlick.

The best part is TONS of folks felt Fletcher was idiotic for trading for these old vets Nisky and Braun. Fletcher took a gamble on the 3 (excluding Pitlick bc minor move) guys and all 3 have paid off immensely. Fletcher deserves all the credit in the world for turning this team around. From players to coaching he has a great pulse on this team since taking over.
Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jul 31 @ 10:20 AM ET
I would like to add about Hayes - he plays with a lot of offensive flair at the 2C. He is far from a sniper and far from an elite passer, but he is good up close to the net and he makes his way there, creating space for his line mates. He plays with a lot of confidence that has rubbed off on the 2nd line. They don't play like complementary bit parts.

In that regard, I am pleasantly surprised with how Laughton has started to play that way too. Konecny, of course, was born that way. He doesn't have to acquire it. He played like that from his first shift.

All in all, our 2nd line is, for the first time in a decade, just as much a threat to score as the first. We have two lines that are threats, and a 3rd line with dangerous players. Boy when was the last time we had that?

- PT21


Agreed. Hayes uses his size really well when he has the puck. I have come to love Laughton over the last 2 seasons. That goal against Jarry the other night makes me think there might be some more there offensively as well. That was really nice.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 31 @ 10:21 AM ET
Analytics is just a tool.
It will never replace scouts, managers and coaches that have a great feel for the game...which most fans don’t have.
If building a baseball champion could be done with sabermetrics then billy beane would have about 10 world series rings by now.

Instead...of course...he has none.

Analytics appeals to fans because it creates the impression that with the right amount of statistical analysis that they too are great amateur general managers...living in their grandma’s basement...slurping endless boxes of cold cereal.

They’re not.

- bruceflyers


There is much to what you say, but give it time.

There was once a time that nobody thought computers could beat players in Chess or checkers or Go. Now, the best players in the world will lose every game to computers.In European soccer leagues, coaches look at goalkeeper's tendencies on Ipads to prepare for penalty kicks and vice versa.

Team sports played in stadiums are more complex, therefore the analytics are not yet so defined. But they are coming.

In the future, scouting will largely cease to exist or will play secondary roles. Teams interested in drafting players will simply roll tape and and a software program will cull everything related to the players abilities within minutes.

So, I agree with you for now but disagree about the future.
Flyers_1488
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly , PA
Joined: 05.15.2012

Jul 31 @ 10:28 AM ET
Its just my own personal feeling, but I want Ghost in over Hagg.

If he is indeed healthy and playing at his best, he is heads and shoulders above Hagg, and having a player like that on your third pair and QBing the PP1 could really be a game changer.

- MBFlyerfan


I disagree! I very much dislike ghost on the ice at all. I don't like his on the ice tricks he thinks are so cool. Hagg is a monster with checking and I enjoy seeing him go blast guys.

I do understand why you would want Ghost over Hagg but for me I'm tired of his play and would rather have size strength then tricks.... Just my opinion
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 31 @ 10:29 AM ET
Agreed. Hayes uses his size really well when he has the puck. I have come to love Laughton over the last 2 seasons. That goal against Jarry the other night makes me think there might be some more there offensively as well. That was really nice.
- Ftown19125


I was tremendously impressed by that goal. He was moving forward fast, Schultz on his back, and yet the puck leaves his blade slower than his forward momentum. You so rarely see that, that's elite.

Then Tomahawk pointed out that Schultz's stick helped and I looked again and he was right.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 31 @ 10:30 AM ET
Its just my own personal feeling, but I want Ghost in over Hagg.

If he is indeed healthy and playing at his best, he is heads and shoulders above Hagg, and having a player like that on your third pair and QBing the PP1 could really be a game changer.

- MBFlyerfan


If healthy and playing with confidence yes. He is better at providing offense and driving the play. I would say hagg is better in his zone, taking the body and blocking shots.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 31 @ 10:30 AM ET
I don't want to spend an entire day pooping on Kevin Hayes. Good for him on the nomination, he’s been very good for us. My question is, don’t any of you feel like too much is made of Hayes and not enough credit is given to Matt Niskanen? I feel like I hear Hayes’ name too much and Niskanen’s not enough.
- SuperSchennBros

I think it’s more of one is a flashy goofy forward and the other one is a rock solid Dman that just goes about his business. Niskanen has been a great add. Fletcher got killed for Nisky/Braun in the off season, look at him now
Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jul 31 @ 10:33 AM ET
I was tremendously impressed by that goal. He was moving forward fast, Schultz on his back, and yet the puck leaves his blade slower than his forward momentum. You so rarely see that, that's elite.

Then Tomahawk pointed out that Schultz's stick helped and I looked again and he was right.

- PT21


ahhh I didn't see the replay.
Kooleus
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA (home of King Alex), CA
Joined: 11.17.2018

Jul 31 @ 10:34 AM ET
Hayes added greatly to the forecheck, to the PK (alleviating that duty from Claude Giroux and being generally excellent at it), to PP2, to making sure the team didn't really feel the absence of Nolan Patrick in what they had hoped last summer would be Patrick's breakout year (instead, he never had so much as a full-contact practice, let alone a game), and to the locker room environment (Hayes keeps everyone loose, which the team often lacked).

Other than those "little" things, yeah, he was overrated.

- bmeltzer


Thanks Bill. I agree 100%. I thought Hayes was great and helped others slot in the right role. Just surprised that Tanner is running around with stats that "prove" Hayes was hurting the team on the ice.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 31 @ 10:35 AM ET
For ghost it also depends on the match up. Against big physical teams I feel he gets off his game when he is getting hit. Ie boston and Washington.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 31 @ 10:41 AM ET
I disagree! I very much dislike ghost on the ice at all. I don't like his on the ice tricks he thinks are so cool. Hagg is a monster with checking and I enjoy seeing him go blast guys.

I do understand why you would want Ghost over Hagg but for me I'm tired of his play and would rather have size strength then tricks.... Just my opinion

- Flyers_1488


HIM HIT! HIM GOOD!
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