In this scenario, If you want a solid 3c who can play a 200ft game, maybe even next Year, Lundell is your man at 8oa. He played in the finish elite league at 17, very well and is one of the most complete players in the draft. His offensive upside isn’t as high as some but his floor is very high and his hockey IQ may be the best in the draft
- turbo044

I think I’d still go Holtz over him
Lundell’s skill set could definitely be a great fit at that 3C spot
My big issue with that, is if I’m drafting in the top10 then i definitely want a top6 guy who can score

Based on Mike's blog idea about roster construction for this coming season and the one after, with the cap remaining at $81.5M, here's what Mike laid out as his template, with a total cap hit of $75.725M before counting the bonuses from last year, which can now be applied during the next 2 seasons if desired instead of just next season:

Skinner ($9M) - Eichel ($10M) - Reinhart ($7M)
LW ($4.5M) - C ($5M) - Okposo ($6M)
Johansson ($4.5M) - C ($2.9M) - RW ($.9M)
LW ($.9M) - C ($.9M) - RW ($.9M)
Extra ($1.5M)

LD ($5M) - Miller ($3.875M)
McCabe ($2.85M) - RHD ($2M)
Dahlin ($.925M) - Jokiharju ($.925M)

Ullmark ($2.5M)
Hutton ($2.75M)

Here's my idea:

Olofsson ($4M) - Eichel ($10M) - Reinhart ($7M)
Skinner ($9M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - Craig Smith ($4.4M)
Kahun ($2.9M) - Cozens ($.925M) - Johansson ($4.5M)
Maroon ($1.5M) - Ruotsalainen ($.925M)/Lazar ($.8M) - Okposo ($6M)

Forward Total = $56.05M

Dahlin ($.925M) - Jokiharju ($.925M)
Brenden Dillon ($4M) - MacKenzie Weegar ($2.5M)
McCabe ($2.85) - Matt Roy ($.7M)
Jon Merrill LHD ($1.8M)

Defense Total = $13.4M

Ullmark ($2.5M), Hutton ($2.75M)

Goaltending Total = $5.25M

Total Cap Hit = $74.7M

- I estimated Olofsson at $4M for this coming season. The Evolving Hockey group has him at $3M to $3.4M per on a short 1 or 2 year deal, but he has ARB rights, so it could be a little higher. I would not sign Olofsson to anything other than a short term deal for now.

- Evolving Hockey has Craig Smith's predicted next deal at 3 years for $4.4M per

- I have no idea what it would take to get Bonino, but that's my idea for a short term, stop gap Center

- Evolving Hockey has Kahun's next deal at 2 years for $2.9M per

- I do not know if the Panthers would be open to trading for Weegar, but I would try and pry him away from them. Evolving Hockey has his next contract estimated at 2 years for $2.5M per

- Please for the love of god let the Asplund for Matt Roy deal be real. Yes, he's had one full season, but I am willing to bet on him being this type of player going forward

- Evolving Hockey predicts Brenden Dillon's next contract to be 4 years at $3.7M per. I tried to entice him at $4M for 3 years

- Evolving Hockey predicts Jon Merrill's next contract at 1 year for $1.8M, and I would sign him as the 7th Dman

Overall, I have jettisoned nearly the entirety of the right side of defense, replacing Montour, Ristolainen, and Miller with Weegar and Matt Roy, with the idea that the right side will be strong for years, along with Dahlin anchoring the left.

That would also allow the Sabres to turn over their left side defense with prospects (Bryson, Samuelsson) and low cost acquisitions as the right side on pairs 2 and 3 can carry the left.

The roster above also leaves the Sabres with $6.8M in cap space for this coming season to absorb all the bonuses from last year and any potential ones from this coming season, along with having a buffer to make further moves this season and extend key players next offseason.

As far as next offseason, when Dahlin, Jokiharju, and Matt Roy would all need raises, you would have Bonino, Johansson, McCabe, Hutton, Marron, and Merrill all coming off the books at a total of $17.5M.
- kingcong39

Solid build


I'd be surprised to see the kings move on from Roy

Merrill is a sneaky good signing, in the right conditions I could see him ahead of McCabe even.

This one's more of a gut feeling than analytically supported, but I'd like to see the Sabres give CJ Smith a real chance at the NHL level.

Should also say that given where the market is headed im inclined to think the preds will hang on to bonino but in general still an ideal target if they'd listen.

Why the sam love though?

We have been terrible his whole career. He's part of the soft culture they are trying to change.

I like risto alot. Top 3 current sabres.

When someone posts. "Risto sucks" trade him.
I do not cry like a little toddler.

If trading one of my favorites in risto helps this team, my vagina wouldn't be crying all over this board.

I wouldn't be calling someone a hater either. That's stupid lingo.

Sam is a decent hockey player. Outside of buffalo, he is not even recognized as some kind of star contributor.

He's Soft, doesnt always give %100. Big loser like the rest of them. Slow and un exciting.

Off ice f#ckface as well
- Boss34

I was posting that Boeser would be a good addition
You’re the one who needs to compare him to Sam for some reason
They’re both “good” top6 RW (top 30 in NHL)
Neither are superstars
Idc who’s better, both can help us win games

Solid build


I'd be surprised to see the kings move on from Roy

Merrill is a sneaky good signing, in the right conditions I could see him ahead of McCabe even.

This one's more of a gut feeling than analytically supported, but I'd like to see the Sabres give CJ Smith a real chance at the NHL level.
- Michael Ghofrani

In what role?

And just to clarify...
U don’t want Boeser, but u do wanna see Cj Smith make the team?

In what role?

And just to clarify...
U don’t want Boeser, but u do wanna see Cj Smith make the team?
- jdfitz77

Does this not strike you as a false equivalency?

Good post, much appreciated.

Could he be a "core" sabre moving forward?

Curious about our 2 (2nd) overall picks.
What % is there points are obtained on the pp.

My guess would be 30%ish?
- Boss34

core sabre?...idk...he had a really good statistical season last year and supposedly worked on other aspects of his game...he's got two more years left on his contract and if he keeps it up, and stays healthier than he's been, it looks like he'll be a real good top-six winger that i think every team would like to have

i'd rather focus on bringing in a 2C, move mojo to the right and bring in one of those two or some other top-nine rw
- Michael Pachla

Sure... that’s ideal. I agree
I was more saying that if we couldn’t get that 2C

Most of us agree that something like
MoJo-Cozens-Kahun
could be a solid line3 that doesn’t ask too much of Cozens
But if we can’t get that 2C...
i would rather see Cozens with 2 good goal scoring wingers on line2 than some of the scuba I’ve seen suggested

This is like saying Cheechoo is still a 50 goal scorer or whatever. Im exaggerating for effect, but his shooting talent isn't nearly what people think it is. Playing with Miller and Pettersson and the stacked top line PP vancouver has comes with serious advantages
- Michael Ghofrani

Better career shooting% than Eichel
Explain

Does this not strike you as a false equivalency?
- Michael Ghofrani

Ish...

Point I’m making is u don’t want a guy who can score 30goals in the top6
But u do want Cj Smith to do what exactly?
U didn’t answer that

Better career shooting% than Eichel
Explain
- jdfitz77

Not at 5v5. And thats even including the year eichel shot 4% and when boeser shot 15.3

Ish...

Point I’m making is u don’t want a guy who can score 30goals in the top6
But u do want Cj Smith to do what exactly?
U didn’t answer that
- jdfitz77

Because it doesn't make sense, they have nothing to do with each other.

One is trading picks and/or prospects for a player who is potentially overrated, the other is a guy already in the organization making next to nothing on the cap being given a look on the fourth line.

I was posting that Boeser would be a good addition
You’re the one who needs to compare him to Sam for some reason
They’re both “good” top6 RW (top 30 in NHL)
Neither are superstars
Idc who’s better, both can help us win games
- jdfitz77

We need to change the faces in this organization

They are losers.

If brock for sam happened, it would be a step in the right direction.

Right wing for right wing. Seems like a logical destination for sam as well. Not that he has a "say" as a rfa, but much like scandella, send him home and it's a positive, for future free agents to see.

Also seems kinda like a really fair trade in my opinion.
Brock is apparently available and we have a new gm, who may or may not want to tuck sam into bed at night.

You know who you are. Bed tuckers

core sabre?...idk...he had a really good statistical season last year and supposedly worked on other aspects of his game...he's got two more years left on his contract and if he keeps it up, and stays healthier than he's been, it looks like he'll be a real good top-six winger that i think every team would like to have
- Michael Pachla

👍

Seems like the right age for the Sabres build as well.

We need a top 6 rw badly. Regardless of the current roster.

Skins -2c - brock could be fun

We need to change the faces in this organization

They are losers.

If brock for sam happened, it would be a step in the right direction.

Right wing for right wing. Seems like a logical destination for sam as well. Not that he has a "say" as a rfa, but much like scandella, send him home and it's a positive, for future free agents to see.

Also seems kinda like a really fair trade in my opinion.
Brock is apparently available and we have a new gm, who may or may not want to tuck sam into bed at night.

You know who you are. Bed tuckers
- Boss34

Just to play out your idea...
Let’s say we swap Sam for Brock
That still leaves us needing a top6 RW,
right?

Just to play out your idea...
Let’s say we swap Sam for Brock
That still leaves us needing a top6 RW,
right?
- jdfitz77

and you replace a kid that has never been injured for a guy that missed 1/6 of the games the last 3 years with injuries


as much as half this board dogs sam, adding boeser to the mix for our 4 wingers in the top 6


skinner
olofsson (got hurt in rochester as well)
boeser
reinhart




only the skunk avoids the IR shelf on a regular basis



I'd still move montour all day long to add boeser

Because it doesn't make sense, they have nothing to do with each other.

One is trading picks and/or prospects for a player who is potentially overrated, the other is a guy already in the organization making next to nothing on the cap being given a look on the fourth line.
- Michael Ghofrani

And 1 can be a goal scoring contributor
The other has little to no effect as a 4th liner

Not at 5v5. And thats even including the year eichel shot 4% and when boeser shot 15.3
- Michael Ghofrani

What are their career 5v5 shooting % ?

Also... why do PP goals not count?

Solid build


I'd be surprised to see the kings move on from Roy

Merrill is a sneaky good signing, in the right conditions I could see him ahead of McCabe even.

This one's more of a gut feeling than analytically supported, but I'd like to see the Sabres give CJ Smith a real chance at the NHL level.

Should also say that given where the market is headed im inclined to think the preds will hang on to bonino but in general still an ideal target if they'd listen.
- Michael Ghofrani

does smith replace girgens on the 4th line, or get a shot as third liner?

and you replace a kid that has never been injured for a guy that missed 1/6 of the games the last 3 years with injuries


as much as half this board dogs sam, adding boeser to the mix for our 4 wingers in the top 6


skinner
olofsson (got hurt in rochester as well)
boeser
reinhart




only the skunk avoids the IR shelf on a regular basis



I'd still move montour all day long to add boeser
- homiedclown

Seems like a “no brainer“ to me

It’s not like we are gonna get a super stud RW for either Montour or Risto
Whether it’s Boeser, Josh Anderson, Tuch, etc etc...
They’ve all got some questions/concerns about them
Otherwise, they wouldn’t be potentially available

This is like saying Cheechoo is still a 50 goal scorer or whatever. Im exaggerating for effect, but his shooting talent isn't nearly what people think it is. Playing with Miller and Pettersson and the stacked top line PP vancouver has comes with serious advantages
- Michael Ghofrani

Couldn’t you say the same for Skinner ?

I can pay Boeser $6M to shoot 15% playing with Eichel.

Sure... that’s ideal. I agree
I was more saying that if we couldn’t get that 2C

Most of us agree that something like
MoJo-Cozens-Kahun
could be a solid line3 that doesn’t ask too much of Cozens
But if we can’t get that 2C...
i would rather see Cozens with 2 good goal scoring wingers on line2 than some of the scuba I’ve seen suggested
- jdfitz77

all things being relatively equal, i'd take boeser over those two

They don't play on the same team :|
- gerbe75pts

Thx genius, watch the vid.

Couldn’t you say the same for Skinner ?

I can pay Boeser $6M to shoot 15% playing with Eichel.
- Pegullaville

I’d be happy with him shooting 10-12% on line2 as well

No RW we can get is gonna come without some type of “flaw” to his game

What are their career 5v5 shooting % ?

Also... why do PP goals not count?
- jdfitz77

First off, I should apologize, I have the wrong numbers. To date, Boeser's total shooting percentage exceeds Eichel's by about a percent. The difference here is Eichel's has gotten better, while Boeser's has gotten worse. You can find individual shooting percentage at any game state for each player on naturalstattrick.

Second, this is where shooting above expected goals for comes in handy. Boeser's shot quality gives him a total xg of 17 (all game states), while he scored 16. This means he actually underperformed his scoring tally relative to the quality of chances he had.

Eichel posted an xg of 22.4, while scoring 35 (he actually has 36 so there must be one goal here that hes credited for but had no effect on?). So while the average person would score 22 goals with the shot locations Eichel had, Eichel managed to score 35, this is what good shooters typically do.

Why discount the powerplay for sh%? Well, shooting percentage there tends to be more a product of the unit itself rather than the individual. The canucks had the 4th best powerplay in the entire league. The Sabres were 20th. Converting on the man advantage on average is less about an individuals shooting talent and more about how well the unit can implement a good strategy, move the puck, and remain unpredictable.

This isn't to say being a good shooter doesn't help you on the power play, but theres a reason why people shoot better on the power play than 5v5. It's easier to get time and space. The hallmark of a good shooter is his ability to score goals from areas where the average person usually doesn't, despite the fact his time and space is limited.

Flames' Hamonic first player to opt-out of NHL's Return To Play plan


Sorry if this was posted already.