Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade: A King's Ransom vs. A Quick Fix

Ya, this one is going to take the championship unless there’s some ‘mail in voter fraud’...

I really hope that Dorion trades Tierney along with the 2nd from SJS in 2021 for another 1st but in 2022 or something like that. Space out the asset acquisition.

Who needs a decent 3rd line C next year plus a 2nd and is willing to part with a future 1st?

Ya, this one is going to take the championship unless there’s some ‘mail in voter fraud’...

I really hope that Dorion trades Tierney along with the 2nd from SJS in 2021 for another 1st but in 2022 or something like that. Space out the asset acquisition.

Who needs a decent 3rd line C next year plus a 2nd and is willing to part with a future 1st?
- riceroni

It is not easy to play on a young team loaded with future potential. Tierney strikes me as the kind of guy that is able to adapt to the kind of development priority that the Sens have put in place. Connor Brown and Borowiecki seem to have great hockey attitudes and the kind of guys that mix well with the kids.

Some of the experienced guys have to stay and I would not rush Tierney out the door.

I'm not gonna say the trade hasn't worked out well, but I'm a believer that you have to evaluate trades when they were made, not years later.

Example: Flyers trade 1st to Washington for Steve Eminger. Capitals use pick to draft John Carlson.

This trade was bad because Eminger wasn't worth a first, not because of how good Carlson has become. What Washington did with the pick and what Eminger did post-trade had nothing to do with how good or bad the trade was.

Would still pick the EK trade for this particular matchup, though.

I'm not gonna say the trade hasn't worked out well, but I'm a believer that you have to evaluate trades when they were made, not years later.

Example: Flyers trade 1st to Washington for Steve Eminger. Capitals use pick to draft John Carlson.

This trade was bad because Eminger wasn't worth a first, not because of how good Carlson has become. What Washington did with the pick and what Eminger did post-trade had nothing to do with how good or bad the trade was.

Would still pick the EK trade for this particular matchup, though.
- jmatchett383

i agree with this.

right now, with the power of hindsight and a TON of luck on Ottawa's part, this trade looks incredible. when the trade was made, almost all Sens fans were pissed that Dorion have chose quantity over quality.

at the time the trade was made, the 1st was expected to be a very late 1st, norris was considered a decent prospect (certainly not AHL ROTY calibre), Tierney, Balcers, and DeMelo were thought of as just "throw-ins", mid-level players who Dorion just got to fill roster spots.

literally NOBODY could have predicted that the 1st would be a top 5 pick, or that Norris was going to turn into one of the best prospects in the NHL, or that DeMelo was going to have insane chemistry with Chabot (even though he didn't play with him much in teh last year)......and i don't think many people could have predicted that Karlsson would decline to teh point that he was one of the most overpaid players in the league

i'm obviously not raining on this trade, and even without hindsight it was better than the Rielly deal.......but at the time it was made, it was not a great trade for Dorion, and he was heavily criticized for making it.

i agree with this.

right now, with the power of hindsight and a TON of luck on Ottawa's part, this trade looks incredible. when the trade was made, almost all Sens fans were pissed that Dorion have chose quantity over quality.

at the time the trade was made, the 1st was expected to be a very late 1st, norris was considered a decent prospect (certainly not AHL ROTY calibre), Tierney, Balcers, and DeMelo were thought of as just "throw-ins", mid-level players who Dorion just got to fill roster spots.

literally NOBODY could have predicted that the 1st would be a top 5 pick, or that Norris was going to turn into one of the best prospects in the NHL, or that DeMelo was going to have insane chemistry with Chabot (even though he didn't play with him much in teh last year)......and i don't think many people could have predicted that Karlsson would decline to teh point that he was one of the most overpaid players in the league

i'm obviously not raining on this trade, and even without hindsight it was better than the Rielly deal.......but at the time it was made, it was not a great trade for Dorion, and he was heavily criticized for making it.
- sensarmy_11

You have to play the hand you are dealt. Does anybody dispute that Dorion played this hand wildly beyond anybody's expectations?

Agree with most of the comments in this thread.

Which is why Dzingel for two 2nds and Duclair will remain my pick, taking into account before and after.

If it means that we can get one of Laf or Byfield and one of Rossi, Stutzle (see so much of Hossa in him), Raymond or Drysdale, in the long run the Karlsson trade will definitely have worked out for Ottawa.

As an aside to why this trade is better for Dorion, it just feels good to really take advantage of the Sharks for once. Still bitter about the Hoffman and Heatley trades (fun fact, the Heatley trade appears to be the first trade Ott and SJ ever made, at least as far back as 1996 based on Capfriendly).

It is not easy to play on a young team loaded with future potential. Tierney strikes me as the kind of guy that is able to adapt to the kind of development priority that the Sens have put in place. Connor Brown and Borowiecki seem to have great hockey attitudes and the kind of guys that mix well with the kids.

Some of the experienced guys have to stay and I would not rush Tierney out the door.
- spatso

Tierney is a good solid #3 center. The Sens will need his versatility. He plays a good 200 foot game & can be moved up the lineup if needed. The center that should be moved is Anisimov.

You have to play the hand you are dealt. Does anybody dispute that Dorion played this hand wildly beyond anybody's expectations?
- spatso

I dispute.....as it pertains to the Karlsson trade, Dorion got wildly lucky. When the trade was made, everyone....I mean EVERYONE....said it was a big loss for Dorion. not one person imagined in their wildest dreams that Norris and that 1st rd pick would become as valuable as they have, including Dorion. anyone who says they thought this deal was a win for Ottawa, at the time it was made, is completely full of poop.

again, i'm obviously not complaining, I LOVE this trade now...…...but you can't look at it as a brilliant move by Dorion………….the fact that this trade looks amazing now can be attributed 95% to luck

Tierney is a good solid #3 center. The Sens will need his versatility. He plays a good 200 foot game & can be moved up the lineup if needed. The center that should be moved is Anisimov.
- granpa

depending on who Ottawa gets in the draft (ie. if they get Byfield) the center that should be moved is Brown. With Byfield and Norris, there is pretty much 0% chance that Brown will end up as a top six center, and he'd be completely wasted as a bottom six forward. If Ottawa ends up with Byfield or Stutzle, i'd be all for them packaging Brown and the Isles pick to move up, or get a solid young player.

Anisimov has zero trade value, there's no point in trading him......at most you'd get a 6th or 7th rd pick (when you consider production and contract)

I dispute.....as it pertains to the Karlsson trade, Dorion got wildly lucky. When the trade was made, everyone....I mean EVERYONE....said it was a big loss for Dorion. not one person imagined in their wildest dreams that Norris and that 1st rd pick would become as valuable as they have, including Dorion. anyone who says they thought this deal was a win for Ottawa, at the time it was made, is completely full of poop.

again, i'm obviously not complaining, I LOVE this trade now...…...but you can't look at it as a brilliant move by Dorion………….the fact that this trade looks amazing now can be attributed 95% to luck
- sensarmy_11

If Norris and the pick turn to busts, then everyone hates the trade again. The potential of this trade looks great. Nothing in stone yet. Biggest thing was dodging Karlsson on the downturn of his career (which he could still bounce back with this prolonged break...)

depending on who Ottawa gets in the draft (ie. if they get Byfield) the center that should be moved is Brown. With Byfield and Norris, there is pretty much 0% chance that Brown will end up as a top six center, and he'd be completely wasted as a bottom six forward. If Ottawa ends up with Byfield or Stutzle, i'd be all for them packaging Brown and the Isles pick to move up, or get a solid young player.

Anisimov has zero trade value, there's no point in trading him......at most you'd get a 6th or 7th rd pick (when you consider production and contract)
- sensarmy_11

Byfield is an unknown & Norris could end up on the W or nowhere. So why get rid of your top prospect at center. I wouldn't expect to get anything for Anisimov. I mentioned him because there was talk about moving a center to create a space for a prospect.

Byfield is an unknown & Norris could end up on the W or nowhere. So why get rid of your top prospect at center. I wouldn't expect to get anything for Anisimov. I mentioned him because there was talk about moving a center to create a space for a prospect.
- granpa

Brown would have show more by now if he was going to be a top 6 option. It's not looking that way right now so I'm in the school of thought to try and move him while he still has some stock. Longer you hold on, the lower the return will be. Curtis Lazar anyone? I'd also do the same for Colin White.

Easy to find 3rd and 4th line centres. This team needs to get top 6 guys. If that means moving on from some favourite prospects of the past, so be it.

I think the reality here is that the "King's Ransom" title should have been the Dion to LA trade. Missed opportunity.

The Karlsson trade looked awful when it happened, but now it looks pretty damn great. Could easily have him 8 years at 11.5 or higher. And to top it off, the sharks sucked and the sens get a great draft pick out of it. Future is looking good for Ottawa.

Easy to find 3rd and 4th line centres. This team needs to get top 6 guys. If that means moving on from some favourite prospects of the past, so be it.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Have to agree - their prospect pool has the quantity thing worked out for the foreseeable future. What's lacking is the high-quality component, which at the moment is still essentially limited to Chabot and Tkachuk. There's certainly quality potential in the likes of Batherson, White, Brannstrom, Norris, Formenton, Brown, Abramov, and Hogberg, but there will also be a lot of pressure coming into the system from high-end prospects who aren't yet in the AHL (eg. Thomson, JBD, Pinto), and the absurd haul of high-end prospects they're about to draft this year. As a result, the team can't be shy about moving on from prospects who aren't panning out as expected, because even the top development opportunities will have strong competition.

That said, I'm not as down on Logan Brown as some... his first two AHL seasons have yielded 42pts/56GP and 28pts/25GP, which is actually very comparable to what Mark Stone did at the same age. The real test for Brown will be this coming season, because the team has cleared the runway for at least 1 if not 2 young centres to take the reins of a scoring line. Tierney and Anisimov will do it if necessary, but they're really looking for some combination of Brown, Norris, and White to step in and make their mark. If Brown should falter, then it's definitely time to strongly consider trading him while there's still perceived value.

Have to agree - their prospect pool has the quantity thing worked out for the foreseeable future. What's lacking is the high-quality component, which at the moment is still essentially limited to Chabot and Tkachuk. There's certainly quality potential in the likes of Batherson, White, Brannstrom, Norris, Formenton, Brown, Abramov, and Hogberg, but there will also be a lot of pressure coming into the system from high-end prospects who aren't yet in the AHL (eg. Thomson, JBD, Pinto), and the absurd haul of high-end prospects they're about to draft this year. As a result, the team can't be shy about moving on from prospects who aren't panning out as expected, because even the top development opportunities will have strong competition.

That said, I'm not as down on Logan Brown as some... his first two AHL seasons have yielded 42pts/56GP and 28pts/25GP, which is actually very comparable to what Mark Stone did at the same age. The real test for Brown will be this coming season, because the team has cleared the runway for at least 1 if not 2 young centres to take the reins of a scoring line. Tierney and Anisimov will do it if necessary, but they're really looking for some combination of Brown, Norris, and White to step in and make their mark. If Brown should falter, then it's definitely time to strongly consider trading him while there's still perceived value.
- khawk

Fair post. Brown has great vision and does have a knack for dishing out passes no one else would ever think of but I've really struggled to see the game breaking ability in his game. I haven't seen a great deal of growth in his game to conquer that he's a possible top 6 option. I do think he could be a very good 3rd liner on a good team, but as you say, our prospect depth have that covered.

At some point Ottawa will have to deal young assets and the reality is that most of that will probably be the young crew in the AHL that we have been hyping up for years. If a player doesn't seem to be cracking the top 6 or top 4, I expect Dorion to not be overly patient if they are other young guys knocking on the door. This is just the nature of the outcome that will occur with the amount of picks coming up in the next couple of drafts. It will be an interesting couple of years.

If ottawa gets 1 and 5. Would you still prioritize getting a center at 5?

Would you value Rossi or Perfetti over Raymond, Drysdale etc?
I understand BPA, but it seems to be a crap shoot here either way.

If ottawa gets 1 and 5. Would you still prioritize getting a center at 5?
Would you value Rossi or Perfetti over Raymond, Drysdale etc?
I understand BPA, but it seems to be a crap shoot here either way.
- david22

BPA really only applies when there's a clear difference in the potential between available players, and I would suggest that's not the case among Rossi, Holtz, or Raymond (I'm less keen on Perfetti). The team needs both high-end centres and wingers, but I think it might be a mistake to come out of their top-10 picks without taking one of each. So if I was picking 1 & 5, I would take Lafreniere & Rossi, assuming Byfield, Stutzle, and Drysdale went in between. If they wind up picking something like 2 and 5, I'd be inclined to take Byfield and Raymond. The weird case would be if they drafted Stutzle at something like #2/3, in which case I might still prioritize Rossi as their next pick, given that he's more assured of playing centre down the road. I really don't like the idea of them coming out of the early 1st round without a high-end centre prospect.

If ottawa gets 1 and 5. Would you still prioritize getting a center at 5?

Would you value Rossi or Perfetti over Raymond, Drysdale etc?
I understand BPA, but it seems to be a crap shoot here either way.
- david22

if Raymond is still there at 5, he's absolutely who i'd pick. always go BPA.

if Ottawa still wants a center, trade the Isles 1st, their own 2nd, and Brown to Tampa for Point....boom, there's your top line centre. not sure Tampa would go for that, but it's a start (add a bit more if you have to), and they're going to HAVE to shed some salary

Wtf are the 4% that DIDN'T vote for the Karlsson trade?

I'm not gonna say the trade hasn't worked out well, but I'm a believer that you have to evaluate trades when they were made, not years later.

Example: Flyers trade 1st to Washington for Steve Eminger. Capitals use pick to draft John Carlson.

This trade was bad because Eminger wasn't worth a first, not because of how good Carlson has become. What Washington did with the pick and what Eminger did post-trade had nothing to do with how good or bad the trade was.

Would still pick the EK trade for this particular matchup, though.
- jmatchett383

I could not disagree with this more. What's better; winning a trade for the first 6 months after it happens? Or winning a trade FOR 10+ years.

And you have to understand that in trades like these, where a star is traded for future assets, the goal is to win the trade down the road.

Different trades happen with different objectives or strategies in mind. The only trades that should be judged on the now are 1 for 1 trades like Eberle for Strome. It isn't possible to trade a mega star like Karlsson and have anyone think Ottawa won. Only once those prospects and picks start blossoming do you see how Ottawa really cashed in. So it isn't feasible to judge those types of trades fairly the day that they happen. It has only been a couple years since the trade, and I bet San Jose would undo that trade if given the choice. Which means Ottawa GREATLY won that trade. San Jose traded their future for a present that never even happened.

if Ottawa still wants a center, trade the Isles 1st, their own 2nd, and Brown to Tampa for Point....boom, there's your top line centre. not sure Tampa would go for that, but it's a start (add a bit more if you have to), and they're going to HAVE to shed some salary
- sensarmy_11

Tampa may have to shed some salary eventually, but they don't have to shed Brayden Point for a mediocre return to a division rival. Not to mention that it's typically easier to make a trade like that for a scoring winger, which is why it might be a good idea to address the centre ice need early at the draft. This draft also projects to have a good number of quality winger prospects available later in the 1st and 2nd rounds, where they have multiple chances to add quality depth.

That said, I do like Raymond quite a bit. If they lose out of Lafreniere but still get a top-3 pick, a Byfield-Raymond combination would be a hell of a foundation for a new top-line.

Tampa may have to shed some salary eventually, but they don't have to shed Brayden Point for a mediocre return to a division rival. Not to mention that it's typically easier to make a trade like that for a scoring winger, which is why it might be a good idea to address the centre ice need early at the draft. This draft also projects to have a good number of quality winger prospects available later in the 1st and 2nd rounds, where they have multiple chances to add quality depth.

That said, I do like Raymond quite a bit. If they lose out of Lafreniere but still get a top-3 pick, a Byfield-Raymond combination would be a hell of a foundation for a new top-line.
- khawk

Love the fact that this draft is so strong at the top and so deep through the 1st round that we can have a genuine searching discussion about the right choices that Dorion needs to make. Very good chance that even the scouts are struggling with any and everything after the 3rd pick.