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Forums :: Blog World :: Ben Shelley: SHORT READ: Kings’ season is over, draft lottery odds are set
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Ben Shelley
Los Angeles Kings
Location: ON
Joined: 04.09.2020

May 26 @ 8:17 PM ET
Ben Shelley: SHORT READ: Kings’ season is over, draft lottery odds are set
fsanford
Joined: 10.28.2009

May 26 @ 8:24 PM ET
Chicago upsets the Oilers, and they will manage to get the first pick.
Screwed up process
Ben Shelley
Joined: 03.12.2019

May 26 @ 8:33 PM ET
Chicago upsets the Oilers, and they will manage to get the first pick.
Screwed up process

- fsanford


I see where you're coming from but in my opinion, at that point the Oilers didn't make the playoffs and should have a (slim) chance at the first overall pick.
KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 26 @ 8:44 PM ET
Kings will get screwed in this! What else is new though. I’m prepared to pick 5-7, UNFORTUNATELY.

99.9% A team in the 8-15 will get one of the lottery slots.

Ridiculous how if 1 team in the 8-15 range will get the 2nd lottery just for them selves (8-15 teams) and not include the teams that lost in the initial lottery.

Say DET and OTT win 1-2 and team X (place holder) wins the 3rd. Teams 3,4,5,6 & 7 have ZERO shot at 3rd.

It shouldn’t be that way. It should be whoever doesn’t win, all the teams get a fighting chance in the 2nd lottery not JUST 8-15. Yeah the bottom 7 should get 2 chances at getting top 3 and not just one.

8-15 get 2 chances and the 2nd lottery is 12.5% amongst them. It’s crap.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 26 @ 8:46 PM ET
Honestly, if the Kings don't pick in the top 3, I want them to pick 7th. If they don't get Lafreniere, Byfield, or Stutzle, I want them to take Perfetti. However, if they get the 4th or 5th pick, they're going to take Drysdale or Raymond. Therefore I hope they drop to 7th.
KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 26 @ 8:50 PM ET
Honestly, if the Kings don't pick in the top 3, I want them to pick 7th. If they don't get Lafreniere, Byfield, or Stutzle, I want them to take Perfetti. However, if they get the 4th or 5th pick, they're going to take Drysdale or Raymond. Therefore I hope they drop to 7th.
- tkecanuck341

I’m getting real skeptical of Perfetti. Gets knocked off the puck in juniors, skating/strength is not there and sometimes is very lazy in both ends of the ice. A kid sitting at 5’10” 185 should not be getting knocked off the puck as frequently as he does.

I’m hoping they don’t drop past 6 for a shot at Rossi. That kid battles 100% of the time. Similar to St. Louis.
fsanford
Joined: 10.28.2009

May 26 @ 8:50 PM ET
I see where you're coming from but in my opinion, at that point the Oilers didn't make the playoffs and should have a (slim) chance at the first overall pick.
- Ben Shelley

Ben, if you are given a chance to win the cup in tournament setting, you are in the playoffs.

The intent of the draft is not to give teams in the playoffs a shot at the number 1 pick.






tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 26 @ 8:52 PM ET
Kings will get screwed in this! What else is new though. I’m prepared to pick 5-7, UNFORTUNATELY.

99.9% A team in the 8-15 will get one of the lottery slots.

Ridiculous how if 1 team in the 8-15 range will get the 2nd lottery just for them selves (8-15 teams) and not include the teams that lost in the initial lottery.

Say DET and OTT win 1-2 and team X (place holder) wins the 3rd. Teams 3,4,5,6 & 7 have ZERO shot at 3rd.

It shouldn’t be that way. It should be whoever doesn’t win, all the teams get a fighting chance in the 2nd lottery not JUST 8-15. Yeah the bottom 7 should get 2 chances at getting top 3 and not just one.

8-15 get 2 chances and the 2nd lottery is 12.5% amongst them. It’s crap.

- KINGS67


Based on the wording of the press release, it sounds like Ottawa gets the most screwed. Unless of course it's just poor wording.

After the First Draw, the winning team (from either the #1-7 group or the #8-15 group) will no longer be eligible for the Second or Third Draws.


According to the language, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they are not eligible for the drawings for #2 or #3 overall.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 26 @ 8:54 PM ET
I’m getting real skeptical of Perfetti. Gets knocked off the puck in juniors, skating/strength is not there and sometimes is very lazy in both ends of the ice.

I’m hoping they don’t drop past 6 for a shot at Rossi. That kid battles 100% of the time. Similar to St. Louis.

- KINGS67


I actually had the opposite reaction. The more I see of him, the more impressed I am. He has the highest hockey IQ of any prospect in the last 5 years. One of the single best goal-scorers and has decent size. The only knock on him is that his skating is "only average." Also helps that he's a natural LW, a position that the Kings have not been able to secure quality talent for since Frolov departed.
Ben Shelley
Joined: 03.12.2019

May 26 @ 8:57 PM ET
I’m getting real skeptical of Perfetti. Gets knocked off the puck in juniors, skating/strength is not there and sometimes is very lazy in both ends of the ice. A kid sitting at 5’10” 185 should not be getting knocked off the puck as frequently as he does.

I’m hoping they don’t drop past 6 for a shot at Rossi. That kid battles 100% of the time. Similar to St. Louis.

- KINGS67


Personally, I would take Rossi/Drysdale over Perfetti. This is a fair assessment from what I've seen from Perfetti as well. He has a ton of skill but Rossi/Drysdale are more complete players.
KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 26 @ 8:58 PM ET
Based on the wording of the press release, it sounds like Ottawa gets the most screwed. Unless of course it's just poor wording.



According to the language, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they are not eligible for the drawings for #2 or #3 overall.

- tkecanuck341

Gotcha. You may be right
Ben Shelley
Joined: 03.12.2019

May 26 @ 9:00 PM ET
Ben, if you are given a chance to win the cup in tournament setting, you are in the playoffs.

The intent of the draft is not to give teams in the playoffs a shot at the number 1 pick.

- fsanford


It's obviously not meant for a team like Edmonton, who was a playoff team to get a shot at first overall.

But I look at this from a team like Chicago's point of view. They know they probably don't have a very good chance to make any sort of an impact in the playoffs. But now they're put in a position to qualify for the first round but in turn, people would want them to have a lower chance at first overall? To me, that's when it goes the other way and screws the teams that were 11th/12th in the conference.
fsanford
Joined: 10.28.2009

May 26 @ 9:01 PM ET
Based on the wording of the press release, it sounds like Ottawa gets the most screwed. Unless of course it's just poor wording.



According to the language, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they are not eligible for the drawings for #2 or #3 overall.

- tkecanuck341
So the Sens, make an incredible deal, and they don't get to take advantage of it? As a Kings fan I probably should not complain much.




KINGS67
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Rolling Hills Estates, CA
Joined: 01.29.2010

May 26 @ 9:02 PM ET
I actually had the opposite reaction. The more I see of him, the more impressed I am. He has the highest hockey IQ of any prospect in the last 5 years. One of the single best goal-scorers and has decent size. The only knock on him is that his skating is "only average." Also helps that he's a natural LW, a position that the Kings have not been able to secure quality talent for since Frolov departed.
- tkecanuck341

He has excellent scoring abilities but I’ve read and watched multiple things on him and I’ve lost interest in him do to my reasons I pointed out.
I was very high on him prior to reading and watching stuff on him.

EDIT: I’ll take him don’t get me wrong, I do want the sniper in this draft and I did like what I saw in the World junior tournament. If he’s there at 7 I take him most likely ; of course if Rossi, Raymond, and drysdale are gone.
Ben Shelley
Joined: 03.12.2019

May 26 @ 9:04 PM ET
Based on the wording of the press release, it sounds like Ottawa gets the most screwed. Unless of course it's just poor wording.



According to the language, if Ottawa wins the 1st overall pick, they are not eligible for the drawings for #2 or #3 overall.

- tkecanuck341


I don't think that's what was meant by it. If OTT gets 1st overall with their own pick, they'd be able to get 2nd/3rd with SJ's pick. I believe it was just stating the obvious that a team can't win multiple draws, even though they'd technically be entered for all three.
fsanford
Joined: 10.28.2009

May 26 @ 9:11 PM ET
It's obviously not meant for a team like Edmonton, who was a playoff team to get a shot at first overall.

But I look at this from a team like Chicago's point of view. They know they probably don't have a very good chance to make any sort of an impact in the playoffs. But now they're put in a position to qualify for the first round but in turn, people would want them to have a lower chance at first overall? To me, that's when it goes the other way and screws the teams that were 11th/12th in the conference.

- Ben Shelley


Yes because most players are going to want to compete for the cup..
Because of the whole layoff, a veteran playoff team has a very good chance to do a lot of damage.


The mantra of the NHL is just get into the playoffs and anything can happen.

This year its been ammended to anything can happen and if doesn't then anything can happen in the draft lottery. A no lose situation.

Ben Shelley
Joined: 03.12.2019

May 26 @ 9:32 PM ET
Yes because most players are going to want to compete for the cup..
Because of the whole layoff, a veteran playoff team has a very good chance to do a lot of damage.


The mantra of the NHL is just get into the playoffs and anything can happen.

This year its been ammended to anything can happen and if doesn't then anything can happen in the draft lottery. A no lose situation.

- fsanford


I'd disagree that Chicago has a good chance to do damage. Maybe a better chance than other years but I still doubt they get past Edmonton. And yes, of course players want to compete but from a management standpoint, losing out on a chance at first overall to only be able to compete for a chance to play in the first round isn't helpful long-term for a team that's looking to get younger.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 26 @ 9:36 PM ET
Personally, I would take Rossi/Drysdale over Perfetti. This is a fair assessment from what I've seen from Perfetti as well. He has a ton of skill but Rossi/Drysdale are more complete players.
- Ben Shelley


I'd be ok with, but slightly disappointed if the Kings go with Rossi.

I'll be furious if the Kings take Drysdale with Perfetti still on the board.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 26 @ 9:38 PM ET
I don't think that's what was meant by it. If OTT gets 1st overall with their own pick, they'd be able to get 2nd/3rd with SJ's pick. I believe it was just stating the obvious that a team can't win multiple draws, even though they'd technically be entered for all three.
- Ben Shelley


You would think so, and it might just be poor wording, but that's not what it says....
kaptaan
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Turning a new Leaf, CA
Joined: 09.29.2010

May 27 @ 6:35 AM ET
If Chicago upsets the Oilers they lose their position in the draft lottery. Edmonton becomes eligible if I understand the process correctly.
kaptaan
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Turning a new Leaf, CA
Joined: 09.29.2010

May 27 @ 6:37 AM ET
So the Sens, make an incredible deal, and they don't get to take advantage of it? As a Kings fan I probably should not complain much.
- fsanford

It seems like bullschiff. Ottawa should have a chance at it. I think they do since technically it's not their pick originally. But it seems pretty vague...
fsanford
Joined: 10.28.2009

May 27 @ 10:05 AM ET
If Chicago upsets the Oilers they lose their position in the draft lottery. Edmonton becomes eligible if I understand the process correctly.
- kaptaan


IF they waited, they could see the results of the first round. If those 8 teams who would not have been in the playoffs (in a normal year) all lose they get into the lottery.
If only 6 lose, they get into the lottery. The 2 others who were in the top 16 when the season ended would not. They would be locked into picks 14 and 15

That is a much fairer way to do it..
Only_A_Ladd
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Sabres VERY Much in Hellebuyck Hearing they are the closest treat to getting a deal…bu a mile., CA
Joined: 06.06.2013

May 27 @ 11:26 AM ET
Honestly, if the Kings don't pick in the top 3, I want them to pick 7th. If they don't get Lafreniere, Byfield, or Stutzle, I want them to take Perfetti. However, if they get the 4th or 5th pick, they're going to take Drysdale or Raymond. Therefore I hope they drop to 7th.
- tkecanuck341


I track your reasoning 100%. I like Drysdale, but is his worth exaggerated by the dearth of defensive talent in the draft and/or the amount of high end forward talent? So if the Kings stay at 4, and L, Q, and S are gone, it concerns me that prospect depth might factor in and push Drysdale higher in the Kings' draft queue above the likes of Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti, and Holtz who I think should all go before him.
kingsfan626
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Ontario, CA
Joined: 12.12.2013

May 27 @ 11:59 AM ET
I've always wanted to see a lottery system where the team that has the highest points but misses the playoffs gets the #1 pick while the rest of the lottery competes for #2. It makes the season more interesting for the fans because teams will keep competing and the gamble to sell at the deadline is going to be more expensive.
tkecanuck341
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Irvine, CA
Joined: 06.25.2009

May 27 @ 1:36 PM ET
I've always wanted to see a lottery system where the team that has the highest points but misses the playoffs gets the #1 pick while the rest of the lottery competes for #2. It makes the season more interesting for the fans because teams will keep competing and the gamble to sell at the deadline is going to be more expensive.
- kingsfan626


They purposely don't do this because then you'd have teams actively tanking for last place. Teams used to actively tank when finishing dead last only gave them a 50.5% chance at the first overall. Giving the last team a guaranteed #1 pick would be even worse.

It's like the puck over the glass penalty. Everyone female doges and moans about how stupid of a penalty it is when it happens to their team in OT in the playoffs and demands that rule be rescinded, until you remember players constantly shooting the puck out of play to relieve pressure in their own end before the rule was instituted. Sure, sometimes it breaks and you have to deal with the immediate consequences, but it's 100% better than the alternative.

Edit: And so I realized that I can't read, and that's not at all what you suggested. My bad. Still going to leave this here because I know that other people have suggested going back to the old system.
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