Jeremy Laura: TSN pegs Wings top spot in mock draft

Say Montreal does move into the top 3 and Detroit picks first. What would i take for Montreal to trade up and pick first?

Say Montreal does move into the top 3 and Detroit picks first. What would i take for Montreal to trade up and pick first?
- Sholan

Phew. There haven’t been any trades of first overall in a long time. I honestly couldn’t think of anything. Detroit, for sure, needs high end young talent. New Jersey, if they got first again, may be open to a trade. Ottawa won’t for sure.

I’m not sure it could be pulled off

I will be curious to see if Detroit loses the lottery and Drysdale is available if they select him (assuming Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle go 1,2,3). Detroit has holes everywhere but I wonder since Seider plays the same position if they select a forward.

A. Lafreniere baby!!!! Stutzle, Byfield. Those are my 1,2 and 3.

For the record, it's not that I don't care for Fabbri. I just don't think he's a top 6 forward on a true contender.

If we pick Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle that's a key building block.
Add Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, and hopefully Zadina. That's 4 more.

I'm not sure Fabbri is the last remaining piece in that top 6. More intrigued to see what Veleno or even Svech develop into. Adding a more established player via trade or free agency is another option. But Fabbri is just a placeholder. I think once you move Fabbri down into a bottom 6 role he becomes a dud.

One other thing to add...if we end up at #1 and someone makes a silly offer I take it. Like if Montreal is 3rd and offers Kotkaniemi or Suzuki to move up then you have to take that and run. They can have Lafreniere and we walk away with Byfield/Stutzle and another young stud that steps in right away. GMs usually aren't that dumb but I'd entertain all offers.

Given Yzerman's boldness to go off the board, I wouldn't be shocked if we fall to #4 if he doesn't just select Aksarov. It's typically really, really stupid to waste a top pick on a goalie, but if they feel he is truly special they may take the chance. Especially since our entire pipeline of goalies is hot garbage.

One other thing to add...if we end up at #1 and someone makes a silly offer I take it. Like if Montreal is 3rd and offers Kotkaniemi or Suzuki to move up then you have to take that and run. They can have Lafreniere and we walk away with Byfield/Stutzle and another young stud that steps in right away. GMs usually aren't that dumb but I'd entertain all offers.

Given Yzerman's boldness to go off the board, I wouldn't be shocked if we fall to #4 if he doesn't just select Aksarov. It's typically really, really stupid to waste a top pick on a goalie, but if they feel he is truly special they may take the chance. Especially since our entire pipeline of goalies is hot garbage.
- Kooleus

The one trade I could see is if Ott wanted #1 so bad they would trade 2 firsts to move up.

I will be curious to see if Detroit loses the lottery and Drysdale is available if they select him (assuming Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle go 1,2,3). Detroit has holes everywhere but I wonder since Seider plays the same position if they select a forward.
- RedC21

It’s funny. Detroit grabbed Mantha, Svech and Rasmussen and I thought they were picking too many similar forwards. If they do get Drysdale it would be interesting. D men can be flipped. Ras and Svech have a lot to prove

A. Lafreniere baby!!!! Stutzle, Byfield. Those are my 1,2 and 3.
- HenryHockey

Solid picks. Stutzle has bounced around a bit in rank, but Yzerman scouted him and seems keen

It’s funny. Detroit grabbed Mantha, Svech and Rasmussen and I thought they were picking too many similar forwards. If they do get Drysdale it would be interesting. D men can be flipped. Ras and Svech have a lot to prove
- Jeremy Laura

I think at this point there isn’t any forward prospect the wings have that has a higher ceiling than any of the forwards projected to go top 10. I don’t think the three you listed are going to get much better than they are now or in Ras/Svech’s case at least going to become top six players on a contending team. Veleno’s got room to grow but after his AHL year left a bit to be desired points wise I would hesitate before pencilling him as top line Center caliber.

I just say this as I saw the wings a few rows from the ice this year and sure while mantha was injured, it was disappointing to see how good Larkin was in comparison to his teammates on the ice. The drop-off was drastic, it left Larkin either trying to do too much himself or trying to make plays with his teammates that aren’t good enough to keep up. Long story short the guy needs more elite talent to play with.

The wings passing on Drysdale at 4 will depend on what they think the ceiling of Seider will be. No team wins a cup without at least one top pair D man and Drysdale has all the tools to become one.

I think at this point there isn’t any forward prospect the wings have that has a higher ceiling than any of the forwards projected to go top 10. I don’t think the three you listed are going to get much better than they are now or in Ras/Svech’s case at least going to become top six players on a contending team. Veleno’s got room to grow but after his AHL year left a bit to be desired points wise I would hesitate before pencilling him as top line Center caliber.

I just say this as I saw the wings a few rows from the ice this year and sure while mantha was injured, it was disappointing to see how good Larkin was in comparison to his teammates on the ice. The drop-off was drastic, it left Larkin either trying to do too much himself or trying to make plays with his teammates that aren’t good enough to keep up. Long story short the guy needs more elite talent to play with.

The wings passing on Drysdale at 4 will depend on what they think the ceiling of Seider will be. No team wins a cup without at least one top pair D man and Drysdale has all the tools to become one.
- RedC21

You’re right on drop off. I think Zadina will be a benefit to the team. Veleno could be as well. If Mantha can stay healthy he has the tools.

I also agree, having multiple good D in the system would be fantastic.

One other thing to add...if we end up at #1 and someone makes a silly offer I take it. Like if Montreal is 3rd and offers Kotkaniemi or Suzuki to move up then you have to take that and run. They can have Lafreniere and we walk away with Byfield/Stutzle and another young stud that steps in right away. GMs usually aren't that dumb but I'd entertain all offers.

Given Yzerman's boldness to go off the board, I wouldn't be shocked if we fall to #4 if he doesn't just select Aksarov. It's typically really, really stupid to waste a top pick on a goalie, but if they feel he is truly special they may take the chance. Especially since our entire pipeline of goalies is hot garbage.
- Kooleus

Hmmm, I don't think you give up Lafrenere.... but if you could get Stutzle and have Suzuki that would definitely be a plus. Something to ponder, because those two have also played center. And even if one of them becomes an NHL center, that would be a real plus!

Given the hypothetical scenario, would Ottawa be willing to give up 4 and 5 for number 1? If not straight up 1 for 4 and 5, then what trade would you make?

With all these trade scenarios I think it depends on where you see the ceilings for those players.

Like if you think Lafreniere is going to be the kind of player who is is going to be a legit HOFer, consistent all-star his entire career and have at least a couple of Art Ross / Hart caliber seasons, and the players you’re getting back are more likely to top out at “solid first liner, maybe appear in a couple of all star games,” I think you’d rather have Lafreniere.

Or put it this way, If you could choose to have either Evgeni Malkin or, say, Mark Scheifele AND Marian Gaborik, all at age 18 and knowing what we now know, you’d take Malkin 10 times out of 10.

Granted it’s a risk either way. If Lafreniere is a bit of a bust then having Stutzle/Byfield + Kotkaniemi/Suzuki (or the 4 and the 5, or whatever) might pan out better. On the other hand, if Lafreniere reaches his potential you probably need both of the guys you get back to be borderline HOFers (at least) to win the trade.

With all these trade scenarios I think it depends on where you see the ceilings for those players.

Like if you think Lafreniere is going to be the kind of player who is is going to be a legit HOFer, consistent all-star his entire career and have at least a couple of Art Ross / Hart caliber seasons, and the players you’re getting back are more likely to top out at “solid first liner, maybe appear in a couple of all star games,” I think you’d rather have Lafreniere.

Or put it this way, If you could choose to have either Evgeni Malkin or, say, Mark Scheifele AND Marian Gaborik, all at age 18 and knowing what we now know, you’d take Malkin 10 times out of 10.

Granted it’s a risk either way. If Lafreniere is a bit of a bust then having Stutzle/Byfield + Kotkaniemi/Suzuki (or the 4 and the 5, or whatever) might pan out better. On the other hand, if Lafreniere reaches his potential you probably need both of the guys you get back to be borderline HOFers (at least) to win the trade.
- Sven22

This is exactly right. If you think Lafreniere is way, way ahead of Byfield and Stutzle then you take him, but if the difference is more marginal then you absolutely take another proven young asset to move down. The problem is he is a winger, who rarely drive the play. Sure a guy like Ovechkin and Kane drive play but this is pretty rare. If Lafreniere is the next Taylor Hall, then you trade down and take Seguin with a Suzuki and call it a day. If he is the next Ovechkin, then you have to assess the potential of Byfield and Stutzle...if they are the next Couterier or Duchene then of course you take the winger, but if its the next Malkin then you absolutely trade down. Remember, the year Ovechkin went #1, Malkin went #2. Imagine trading away Ovechkin to get Malkin AND Blake Wheeler. You do that every day.

This is exactly right. If you think Lafreniere is way, way ahead of Byfield and Stutzle then you take him, but if the difference is more marginal then you absolutely take another proven young asset to move down. The problem is he is a winger, who rarely drive the play. Sure a guy like Ovechkin and Kane drive play but this is pretty rare. If Lafreniere is the next Taylor Hall, then you trade down and take Seguin with a Suzuki and call it a day. If he is the next Ovechkin, then you have to assess the potential of Byfield and Stutzle...if they are the next Couterier or Duchene then of course you take the winger, but if its the next Malkin then you absolutely trade down. Remember, the year Ovechkin went #1, Malkin went #2. Imagine trading away Ovechkin to get Malkin AND Blake Wheeler. You do that every day.
- Kooleus

I would stick with Lafreniere . I believe he has already proven he is marginally above his piers in play, and is able to elevate his game in tournament play. It is seeming like a no-brainer.

I would stick with Lafreniere . I believe he has already proven he is marginally above his piers in play, and is able to elevate his game in tournament play. It is seeming like a no-brainer.
- HenryHockey

If he is just marginally better than his peers (like say 2010 with Hall versus Seguin or 2004 with Ovechkin versus Malkin) then why select him over a package of say Byfield/Stutzle along with a Suzuki/Kotkaniemi? That's the whole point. If he is just marginally better then you absolutely should entertain a silly offer from a desperate GM.

If he is lightyears ahead (like say 2007 when it was Kane versus Turris) well then you take Lafreniere in an instant.

I didn't think this concept was that complicated.

This is exactly right. If you think Lafreniere is way, way ahead of Byfield and Stutzle then you take him, but if the difference is more marginal then you absolutely take another proven young asset to move down. The problem is he is a winger, who rarely drive the play. Sure a guy like Ovechkin and Kane drive play but this is pretty rare. If Lafreniere is the next Taylor Hall, then you trade down and take Seguin with a Suzuki and call it a day. If he is the next Ovechkin, then you have to assess the potential of Byfield and Stutzle...if they are the next Couterier or Duchene then of course you take the winger, but if its the next Malkin then you absolutely trade down. Remember, the year Ovechkin went #1, Malkin went #2. Imagine trading away Ovechkin to get Malkin AND Blake Wheeler. You do that every day.
- Kooleus

I think the Kane vs Hall comparison is spot on. And it's probably worth noting the following:

Age-18 CHL season per-game performance
Taylor Hall -- .70 goals, 1.86 points
Alexis Lafreniere -- .67 goals, 2.15 points
Patrick Kane -- 1.07 goals, 2.50 points

All three have fall birthdays too, so none of them have a particularly large age advantage.

I do think Lafreniere will be better than Hall (slightly better junior performance with significantly worse team support), but probably not better than Kane. Where exactly do I think he'll land in that gap? No clue.

If you can trade down and still get Byfield plus another first-line or first-pair talent ... I'd definitely consider it. Byfield is 10 months younger than Lafreniere and his numbers this year are comparable to Lafreniere's the season before (i.e., when their ages were more directly comparable). Plus he's a center.

Stutzle I'm less sure about, not because I think he's necessarily worse but more so because it's harder for me to make a comparison between CHL and DEL performance that I feel confident about.

If he is just marginally better than his peers (like say 2010 with Hall versus Seguin or 2004 with Ovechkin versus Malkin) then why select him over a package of say Byfield/Stutzle along with a Suzuki/Kotkaniemi? That's the whole point. If he is just marginally better then you absolutely should entertain a silly offer from a desperate GM.

If he is lightyears ahead (like say 2007 when it was Kane versus Turris) well then you take Lafreniere in an instant.

I didn't think this concept was that complicated.
- Kooleus

Marginally......OK, more like significantly. But he is no McDavid or Crosby, but I think he will make a more immediate impact than say a Hughes or a Kappo. That is something the Wings need to bring fans back sooner. I am no scout, so if Stevie is faced with such a decision then I trust he will do what is best. A decision such as this would be a true luxury, I doubt that it will arise.

I will be curious to see if Detroit loses the lottery and Drysdale is available if they select him (assuming Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle go 1,2,3). Detroit has holes everywhere but I wonder since Seider plays the same position if they select a forward.
- RedC21

Both Seider and Hronek can play LD so that's not going to stop Yzerman from possibly drafting Drysdale at number 4, A top 4 of Hronek, Seider and Drysdale would be pretty sweet.