Michael Stuart: Recapping the Sens Marketplace

Michael Stuart: Recapping the Sens Marketplace
- Michael_Stuart

Craig Burton’s 2019 NHL Mock Draft, May 22 (Final Ranking)


1. Hughes (Devils)
2. Kaako (Rangers)
3. Byram (Chicago)
4. Dach (Colorado)
5. Caufield (L.A)
6. Cozens (Wings)
7. Turcotte (Sabres)
8. Boldy (Oilers)
9. Zegras (Ducks)
10. Podkolzin (Nucks)
11. Krebs (Philly)
12. Kaliyev (Wild)
13. Newhook (Florida)
14. Broberg (Arizona)
15. Harley (Habs)
16. Tomasino (Avs)
17. Soderstrom (Knights)
18. Lavoie (Dallas)
19. McMichael (Sens)
20. York (Rangers)
21. Afanasyev (Pittsburgh)
22. Knight (L.A)
23. Brink (Islanders)
24. Tracey (Nashville)
25. Seider (Washington)
26. Leason (Calgary)
27. Rees (Bolts)
28. Suzuki (Carolina)
29. Thomson (Anaheim)





Results of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft;




1 New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes
Well played Button, 1/1.
Jack Hughes makes Mitch Marner look thick. Franchise center at some point, maybe? Hischier is decent though.

2 New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko
To all of our surprise Craig gets it right. Hard to evaluate Kaako but I believe he could turn into something special. 2/2.

3 Chicago Blackhawks - Kirby Dach
Dach was picked by Bowman months before the draft...yet Button has them picking Byram. I can see the need on defense but drafting in the NHL is not based on need. He could have went 3/3, unfortunate.
2/3

4 Colorado Avalanche - Bowen Byram
Makar, Byram, Girard, Zadorov and Graves make up one of the most sexy defensive corps in the NHL, my opinion.
2/4.

5 Los Angeles Kings - Alex Turcotte
Most had Turcotte going to either Chicago or Colorado, Craig had him going later on at 7th. Future captain in L.A? I’ll take that bet. Future number 1C? Yup. 2/5

6 Detroit Red Wings - Moritz Seider
“What???? Who????” Was everyone’s response to Yzermans first pick as Red Wings GM. Craig had him going 25th overall. Doesn’t seem like a reach whatsoever now, if anything potentially a steal. Reminds me of Lindholm (sp?) going to Anaheim in 2012. 2/6

7 Buffalo Sabres - Dylan Cozens
Although Craig had him going top 5 by his expert opinion, he seems to be an excellent 2nd line center in the making.
2/7

8 Edmonton Oilers - Philip Broberg
Craig had him going 14th overall despite most scouts agreeing that he was a top ten talent, and most mock drafts had him going to Edmonton. Could be a top pairing type, definitely top four. 2/8

9 Anaheim Ducks - Trevor Zegras
He got it right!!! Zegras has really turned heads this past year. Hopefully he keeps that momentum. Top six potential for sure. 3/9

10 Vancouver Canucks - Vasili Podkolzin
Two in a row for the Button! Hard to say where Podkolzin could slot in the future. Another year or two and it will become clearer for consensus. For now top six, maybe more. 4/10

11 Arizona Coyotes - Victor Söderström
When Chayka traded up everyone thought it was for Knight. Soderstrom has talent and has seen his stock rise. However, Craig did him wrong at 17th overall. 4/11

12 Minnesota Wild - Matthew Boldy
Great pick for the Wild. I’d say he’s better than Kaliyev, who Craig had them taking here, at this point. Kaliyev dropped to the 2nd round, ‘nough said. 4/12

13 Florida Panthers - Spencer Knight
Supposed to be taken 22nd overall in Craig’s mock draft, this is another big miss by the prospect whisperer. Projects as a franchise type goalie but we all know how goalies are with developing. 4/13

14 Philadelphia Flyers - Cameron York
York was supposed to be taken 20th by the Rangers, Craig says sorry Rangers fans, and that would have been a steal. However, the Flyers did it right by selecting him at 14. Projects to be an offensive type defenseman with top four potential, PP1 quarterback.
4/14

15 Montréal Canadiens - Cole Caufield
Caufield at 15 is probably a steal but at 5th overall it’s easily a reach. If the Kings took Caufield over Turcotte I’m sure Rob Blake would be in the hot seat.
Kid can score goals. I dislike the Habs. 4/15

16 Colorado Avalanche - Alex Newhook
Projected to go at 13th overall, yes thank you Craig, Colorado snatches up Newhook after taking Byram.
Colorado wins the cup by 2025. Projects to be a top nine versatile forward, top six upside. 4/16

17 Vegas Golden Knights - Peyton Krebs
For Craig this is a situation where Krebs falls from 11th to 17th. Is he better than Newhook? Hard to say at this point. I’d say yes. Top six potential but more likely a top nine guy.
4/17

18 Dallas Stars - Thomas Harley
Well I think the Stars are happier with Harley than they would be with Lavoie.
Lavoie didn’t go until the 2nd round and Harley has increased his upward projections as a top four defenseman.
Another miss by Button. 4/18

19 Ottawa Senators - Lassi Thomson
Oh Craig, you don’t understand defensemen very well and project them terribly. A reach by Craig’s evaluation as he had Thomson going to Anaheim, and McMichael - a second round pick, going at 19th. Just butchered it. Thomson looks good. 4/19

20 Winnipeg Jets - Ville Heinola
Another huge miss by Craig. Earliest I saw for Heinola was early on Button had him in the 3rd round. Never made it as a projected 1st round pick. Was part of the Trouba trade. Another small crafty defenseman with top four potential.
4/20

21 Pittsburgh Penguins - Samuel Poulin
Again, not rated until the second round despite several scouts identifying his value in the late 1st round. Shame Mr. Button. 4/21

22 Los Angeles Kings - Tobias Björnfot
Part of the Muzzin trade to Toronto.
Bjornfot could end up turning heads in the next couple years. He’s slkid size and plays with men at a young age.
Afanasyev was Buttons pick here but wasn’t taken until late in the second round. 422

23 New York Islanders - Simon Holmström
Okay I blame Lou for this one. 3rd round ranking for Holmstrom and Craig had them going with Brink - who dropped to the second round. Should I give him a quarter point for effort or blame Lou?
4/23

24 Nashville Predators - Philip Tomasino
At one point considered a top 15 pick, Craig was in that club too, but dropped to Nashville for harvest. Could be a energetic top 9 type. 4/24

25 Washington Capitals - Connor McMichael
Sens were supposed to take McMichael however things improved for Ottawa by taking Thomson. McMichael goes right around where he was supposed to.
Imagine Seider dropping to Washington? Yikes. 4/25

26 Calgary Flames - Jakob Pelletier
Johnny Gaudreaus eyebrows were raised when this pick was made. Seems like a feisty version of Gaudreau with less talent.
4/26
27 Tampa Bay Lightning - Nolan Foote
Loads of scouts had him in the late first but again Craig sees another first round pick as a second rounder.
4/27

28 Carolina Hurricanes - Ryan Suzuki
DING DING DING DING WE HAVE A WINNER. Suzuki has been a huge unearthing as he has top six upside. Excellent pick.
5/28

29 Anaheim Ducks - Brayden Tracey
Pro sized frame and has a little bit of potential. Top 9 that might slot into the top six when called on. Safe pick if you ask me.
5/29


So, looks like Craig got the first two right.
But everyone including losers like me making mock drafts every year knew as much. Getting Zegras and Podkolzin one after another was a stroke of genius...or maybe just a stroke...? Perhaps, but the fact of the matter is he got them.
I’ll admit my surprise seeing the match of Carolina and Suzuki, it was almost artistic. Or autistic? Hmm.


Button ends up with a 17.2% of being right. Or, and this is a sexier number, he is wrong 82.76% of the time.

Craig is unreliable for mock drafting and his scouting lists often are based around media hype and rarely any actual scouting is done on players.

Outside of the first two picks he does not have any idea and projects players that are drafted high - and have proven thus far they’re worthy of being picked high, anywhere from outside the top ten to outside the first round.
82% chance he won’t get projections for the 1st round correctly, 82%



Next up I’ll be doing the 2018 draft with Craig’s input on what’s what. See if that percentage goes up or down.

I thoroughly enjoyed this armchair GM shell game you had here.
Being that I am new to this site, I hope many of the other bloggers/writers have exercises as this going on during these rather long days we are experiencing!
Carry on!

I thoroughly enjoyed this armchair GM shell game you had here.
Being that I am new to this site, I hope many of the other bloggers/writers have exercises as this going on during these rather long days we are experiencing!
Carry on!
- HenryHockey

Thanks very much, and welcome!

cool idea and good blogs

looking at what came in (hypothetically) and what went out, i think the sens would be in a worse position moving forward.

a poop load of picks and a top young dman out the door, and only Nylander coming back.........too much given, not enough gained, when you look at it from an overall position.

cool idea and good blogs

looking at what came in (hypothetically) and what went out, i think the sens would be in a worse position moving forward.

a poop load of picks and a top young dman out the door, and only Nylander coming back.........too much given, not enough gained, when you look at it from an overall position.
- sensarmy_11

I don't really disagree. I think it ultimately comes down to how much you value shipping out Zaitsev, because the package for Nylander alone feels decently fair value wise. The idea of shipping out Zaitsev in this scenario was admittedly based on bringing Sergachev in, which was rejected.

Maybe for an idea while this hiatus is on could be to do this for each division. Trades should be even more plausible given that most teams prefer to trade outside of their own division.

I don't really disagree. I think it ultimately comes down to how much you value shipping out Zaitsev, because the package for Nylander alone feels decently fair value wise. The idea of shipping out Zaitsev in this scenario was admittedly based on bringing Sergachev in, which was rejected.
- Michael_Stuart

I think with Zaitsev, you want to have a slight upgrade coming back. There's no need to give up that many picks if you're just getting Golobeuf. I would look at doing a pick or prospect with Zaitsev to get an upgrade (regardless of term- funny enough like the Ceci trade).

While I liked the exercise, I have to admit that I disliked the majority of these deals... especially the Nylander/Brannstrom one. The Senators really need to stop fixing all of the Maple Leafs' problems, and handing them a high-end young d-man PLUS a first round pick in an excellent draft in exchange for 4 seasons of a player who's really only proven that he can be productive alongside Matthews is just not a good deal. And that's before we even consider the fact that Nylander already held out once in dramatic fashion for money reasons, which should have ended the discussion before it started.

I'm also not convinced that Zaitsev needs to be moved with any great urgency, especially with DeMelo now gone. When two of Bernard-Docker, Thomson, and Jaros are honestly ready to handle 20min/GP in the NHL as RHD, then maybe you make a deal like that. But I think we're at least 1-2 seasons away from that, given that neither JBD or Thomson have played even a single AHL game. Even if Zaitsev played a #5 role on the 3rd pairing, that would hardly be the worst use of $4.5M/yr that I can envision. And strategically, you wouldn't need to protect him in an expansion draft, and he'd actually be a relatively inexpensive buyout over the last 2 years of his deal ($0.8M/yr).

But again, it was a fun exercise... even if I'd keep more than a social distance from either trade.

While I liked the exercise, I have to admit that I disliked the majority of these deals... especially the Nylander/Brannstrom one. The Senators really need to stop fixing all of the Maple Leafs' problems, and handing them a high-end young d-man PLUS a first round pick in an excellent draft in exchange for 4 seasons of a player who's really only proven that he can be productive alongside Matthews is just not a good deal. And that's before we even consider the fact that Nylander already held out once in dramatic fashion for money reasons, which should have ended the discussion before it started.

I'm also not convinced that Zaitsev needs to be moved with any great urgency, especially with DeMelo now gone. When two of Bernard-Docker, Thomson, and Jaros are honestly ready to handle 20min/GP in the NHL as RHD, then maybe you make a deal like that. But I think we're at least 1-2 seasons away from that, given that neither JBD or Thomson have played even a single AHL game. Even if Zaitsev played a #5 role on the 3rd pairing, that would hardly be the worst use of $4.5M/yr that I can envision. And strategically, you wouldn't need to protect him in an expansion draft, and he'd actually be a relatively inexpensive buyout over the last 2 years of his deal ($0.8M/yr).

But again, it was a fun exercise... even if I'd keep more than a social distance from either trade.
- khawk

Wow good post, I think the same way

While I liked the exercise, I have to admit that I disliked the majority of these deals... especially the Nylander/Brannstrom one. The Senators really need to stop fixing all of the Maple Leafs' problems, and handing them a high-end young d-man PLUS a first round pick in an excellent draft in exchange for 4 seasons of a player who's really only proven that he can be productive alongside Matthews is just not a good deal. And that's before we even consider the fact that Nylander already held out once in dramatic fashion for money reasons, which should have ended the discussion before it started.

I'm also not convinced that Zaitsev needs to be moved with any great urgency, especially with DeMelo now gone. When two of Bernard-Docker, Thomson, and Jaros are honestly ready to handle 20min/GP in the NHL as RHD, then maybe you make a deal like that. But I think we're at least 1-2 seasons away from that, given that neither JBD or Thomson have played even a single AHL game. Even if Zaitsev played a #5 role on the 3rd pairing, that would hardly be the worst use of $4.5M/yr that I can envision. And strategically, you wouldn't need to protect him in an expansion draft, and he'd actually be a relatively inexpensive buyout over the last 2 years of his deal ($0.8M/yr).

But again, it was a fun exercise... even if I'd keep more than a social distance from either trade.
- khawk

In *real life* I agree with you (though I disagree with that characterization of Nylander). But this exercise wouldn't have been much fun just dumping players for picks...

In *real life* I agree with you (though I disagree with that characterization of Nylander). But this exercise wouldn't have been much fun just dumping players for picks...

- Michael_Stuart

Ya I don't like Nylander but his play this year has been WAY better, and he hasn't played with Matthews

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWMeemLkXvY&t=

I would rather have Raymond & Holtz over Lafreniere & anyone else not named Byfield, Stutzle. I think the next 15 years would be better with these 2 than the others.

Lucas Raymond & Alex Holtz > Alex Lafreniere & Marco Rossi IMO

It's close though

Ya I don't like Nylander but his play this year has been WAY better, and he hasn't played with Matthews
- AlfieisKing

Okay, so he's proven he can be productive alongside Matthews or Tavares, on a team with an almost problematic one-dimensional focus on scoring... that doesn't make it less likely that his production would drop elsewhere, or change the fact that he's butter soft (9 hits in 68GP is absurd). Worse yet is the proven track record of putting his contract ahead of his team. This almost certainly limits the value of this trade to just the 4 remaining years on his contract... and predictably sets the team up for a hard choice in the final year, just as the team is starting to really become competitive.

I really don't know what people see in this trade, but I'd keep Brannstrom and a 2020 1st rounder every day of the week.