Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: April 1, 2020

Good to hear JVR is on course. I wonder how injured players are continuing their rehab around the league, those who are in lock down places? At that level, physical therapy must involve working with a bunch of trainers, at a properly equipped facility, lots of medical testing, etc. How is that possible under the circumstances?

On another level, I have to confess it is surreal to hear people talk about resuming season, playoffs etc. without talking about the special and unusual conditions required to bring that about (empty rinks, repeated rapid testing and so on).

Everyone knows the carnage that is coming in the next 4-6 weeks (it will be much worse than the numbers bandied about by the White House). But what about after that? The virus will not go away, it will still be present everywhere, in fact much more so than it is now. The deaths will be past their peak, but only if mitigation efforts continue. As soon as we relax vigilance, we will be hit hard again and again.

Wimbledon, which starts in June, is cancelled. It is in the open air, much less dangerous.

In what possible world are we even thinking about having regular season, playoffs etc. without special arrangements?

One without you! Lol

At least present at the games.

There won’t be fans for the majority of these games. The NBA/NHL are starting to talk about money and escrow on TV now. It’s a thing for them to miss these games. Not just stadium revenue but ads and TV (not to mention projected unseen future profit loss due to fans losing interest). It sounds a bit callous but look at it this way: many see these leagues as having a civic duty to get things started.

It’s about how to make it work, not what’s in the way

One without you! Lol

At least present at the games.

There won’t be fans for the majority of these games. The NBA/NHL are starting to talk about money and escrow on TV now. It’s a thing for them to miss these games. Not just stadium revenue but ads and TV (not to mention projected unseen future profit loss due to fans losing interest). It sounds a bit callous but look at it this way: many see these leagues as having a civic duty to get things started.

It’s about how to make it work, not what’s in the way
- Wingdestroyer

That's what I meant by special arrangements. How can you make it work?

There are only 2 possibilities:
1. empty stadiums
2. largely empty stadiums where everyone is at least 6 feet away from each other, which will mean about 10% capacity.

How will players practice? How will they hang out in the locker room? Only way possible is if they are tested every day, or tested and then completely quarantined in between games.

Civic duty? Don't be hilarious. Look at the 5th amendment to our constitution.

That's what I meant by special arrangements. How can you make it work?

There are only 2 possibilities:
1. empty stadiums
2. largely empty stadiums where everyone is at least 6 feet away from each other, which will mean about 10% capacity.

How will players practice? How will they hang out in the locker room? Only way possible is if they are tested every day, or tested and then completely quarantined in between games.

Civic duty? Don't be hilarious. Look at the 5th amendment to our constitution.
- PT21

I should say “civic duty”....not actually mandated at all. Come on!!

Once testing is easy and avail (THAT WILL COME SOON) NFL owners are already like “yeah we’ll test everyone every damn day”

If that is possible, they are willing to do it.

One thing I know is there is NOTHING you can think of that the leagues aren’t taking into consideration already. The desire for them to do what it takes is there already as well.

The truth is I don’t know the answers to your questions right now, but owners and GMs are going to be thinking of solitons to them. Might look way different than you and I can imagine. I trust they will do right for the players and the game (and fans).

I should say “civic duty”....not actually mandated at all. Come on!!


- Wingdestroyer

They will do it if it improves their bottom line or at least hold it roughly steady. They will not do it if it hurts their finances much.

They will do it if it improves their bottom line or at least hold it roughly steady. They will not do it if it hurts their finances much.
- PT21

Ok fine....

I should say “civic duty”....not actually mandated at all. Come on!!

Once testing is easy and avail (THAT WILL COME SOON) NFL owners are already like “yeah we’ll test everyone every damn day”

If that is possible, they are willing to do it.

One thing I know is there is NOTHING you can think of that the leagues aren’t taking into consideration already. The desire for them to do what it takes is there already as well.

The truth is I don’t know the answers to your questions right now, but owners and GMs are going to be thinking of solitons to them. Might look way different than you and I can imagine. I trust they will do right for the players and the game (and fans).
- Wingdestroyer

You could test the players, team staff, arena staff and broadcast teams every day of the season, but unless you isolate and bubble wrap them outside of games, they're still gonna be at risk of getting infected and spreading the virus.

Until there's a working vaccine, it's hard to see any league chancing the legal liabilities, PR hit and insurance issues that could come w/ resuming play before its safe.

This season is toast. Next season could be toast too.

It sounds a bit callous but look at it this way: many see these leagues as having a civic duty to get things started.
- Wingdestroyer

Who the (frank) is saying that??

Sports are just about the last priority right now.

Being Negative Nancy here: This freaking virus has the tenacity of Coots. In this case, a very bad thing. It's highly durable, disguises itself well in new hosts and WILL return in the Fall and Winter.
It likes cool and humid weather. The only thing that The Trumpet got right was it would diminish in impact during warmer weather. Since it can have NO symptoms in about a fourth of the population and it's covert aspect of taking up to five days before those susceptible become ill, may I suggest that this 'curve flattening' is only that. WE will be all in contact with it.
May 'god' have mercy on our souls. And bodies, let's not forget bodies.
The bad outcomes may not kill us but affect us for the rest of our lives.
Enjoy the Universal Pause Button time because there will be a lot of work to be done when Play is engaged.

Who the (frank) is saying that??

Sports are just about the last priority right now.
- Tomahawk

Not from an economic standpoint - and I'm not even talking about the players and owners. Stadium workers, adjacent restaurants and their workers, public transportation and ride services, hotels and travel industries, etc., all have a pressing need to get back to work and in major cities sports is a big part of the equation.

Being Negative Nancy here: This freaking virus has the tenacity of Coots. In this case, a very bad thing. It's highly durable, disguises itself well in new hosts and WILL return in the Fall and Winter.
It likes cool and humid weather. The only thing that The Trumpet got right was it would diminish in impact during warmer weather. Since it can have NO symptoms in about a fourth of the population and it's covert aspect of taking up to five days before those susceptible become ill, may I suggest that this 'curve flattening' is only that. WE will be all in contact with it.
May 'god' have mercy on our souls. And bodies, let's not forget bodies.
The bad outcomes may not kill us but affect us for the rest of our lives.
Enjoy the Universal Pause Button time because there will be a lot of work to be done when Play is engaged.
- Pompous

Science has beaten worse viruses/bacteria. I have no doubt science will take care of this one, too.

Who the (frank) is saying that??

Sports are just about the last priority right now.
- Tomahawk

people

Not from an economic standpoint - and I'm not even talking about the players and owners. Stadium workers, adjacent restaurants and their workers, public transportation and ride services, hotels and travel industries, etc., all have a pressing need to get back to work and in major cities sports is a big part of the equation.
- Scoob

Thanks for the econ 101. I think we're a bit beyond that at this point.

Who the (frank) is saying that??

Sports are just about the last priority right now.
- Tomahawk

In his defense, I assume he means something like Bing Crosby entertaining the troops kinda deal.

Thanks for the econ 101. I think we're a bit beyond that at this point.
- Tomahawk

I was just pointing out that sports isn't a frivolous thing - it is economically important and many folks would like it to return for reasons other than rooting for their team.

Good to hear JVR is on course. I wonder how injured players are continuing their rehab around the league, those who are in lock down places? At that level, physical therapy must involve working with a bunch of trainers, at a properly equipped facility, lots of medical testing, etc. How is that possible under the circumstances?

On another level, I have to confess it is surreal to hear people talk about resuming season, playoffs etc. without talking about the special and unusual conditions required to bring that about (empty rinks, repeated rapid testing and so on).

Everyone knows the carnage that is coming in the next 4-6 weeks (it will be much worse than the numbers bandied about by the White House). But what about after that? The virus will not go away, it will still be present everywhere, in fact much more so than it is now. The deaths will be past their peak, but only if mitigation efforts continue. As soon as we relax vigilance, we will be hit hard again and again.

Wimbledon, which starts in June, is cancelled. It is in the open air, much less dangerous.

In what possible world are we even thinking about having regular season, playoffs etc. without special arrangements?
- PT21

I agree with you that the NHL season resuming is a long shot. I'd be surprised if it happens. However, what information do you have that nobody else has that it will be much worse?

Here is a pretty quick estimate of future trajectory. Its back of the envelope stuff, but the disease spread has been very predictable so far.

Currently, US cases are doubling up every 2.5 days but pretty stable between 2-3. Here is a nice graph the Inquirer created.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qyrqQ/2/

Lets assume best case scenario and say it averages 3 in the next 15 days, till mid April. This means:

Date .... # of deaths
4/1 4k
4/4 8k
4/7 16k
4/10 32k
4/13 64k
4/16 128 k

Lets assume by this time disease slows down to the extent that cases double at a rate more than 3 times slower, i.e., every 10 days, for the next 14 days. This means

4/26 256k
4/30 384k

This is just April guys.

You could test the players, team staff, arena staff and broadcast teams every day of the season, but unless you isolate and bubble wrap them outside of games, they're still gonna be at risk of getting infected and spreading the virus.

Until there's a working vaccine, it's hard to see any league chancing the legal liabilities, PR hit and insurance issues that could come w/ resuming play before its safe.

This season is toast. Next season could be toast too.
- Tomahawk

Once one player, coach or any of the support staff tests positive, then everyone involved will need to be quarantined. That's includes a team they just played. I don't see how that works.

Once one player, coach or any of the support staff tests positive, then everyone involved will need to be quarantined. That's includes a team they just played. I don't see how that works.
- MJL

That's why I was saying a few days ago - test every day, then quarantine. No chance anyone gets it. If anyone does for any reason, repeat test to everyone, immediately. The sick one sent away, play continues with others. No need to quarantine any teammate.

One thing here in our favor is that unlike HIV, the virus apparently becomes very quickly identifiable from test. You don't have to wait like with HIV.

I mean isolate/shelter with the other healthy teammates, not quarantine.

Thanks for the econ 101. I think we're a bit beyond that at this point.
- Tomahawk

I don't think sports is really at the top of the list but getting the economy going again is a matter of national security. Our energy system is in danger of collapse. A failed US economy will kill a lot more people than the virus will.

That's why I was saying a few days ago - test every day, then quarantine. No chance anyone gets it. If anyone does for any reason, repeat test to everyone, immediately. The sick one sent away, play continues with others. No need to quarantine any teammate.

One thing here in our favor is that unlike HIV, the virus apparently becomes very quickly identifiable from test. You don't have to wait like with HIV.
- PT21

You can't just send the sick one away. Everyone else who had contact would also need to be quarantined.

You can't just send the sick one away. Everyone else who had contact would also need to be quarantined.
- MJL

That's why I said rapid test. Test them. If they clear, then by definition they are uninfected by the sick player. Sick player banished.

That part will proceed just like an injury. Next man up.

That's why I said rapid test. Test them. If they clear, then by definition they are uninfected by the sick player. Sick player banished.

That part will proceed just like an injury. Next man up.
- PT21

They'll never allow that. They will need to quarantine everyone. How can they quarantine and isolate players between games?

You can't just send the sick one away. Everyone else who had contact would also need to be quarantined.
- MJL

Not if they are all tested each day? Right?

Not saying you’re wrong just confirming