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Forums :: Blog World :: Tyler Cameron: Time to sell?
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rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 5:45 PM ET
The Winnipeg Jets have acquired defenceman Dylan DeMelo from the Ottawa Senators for a 2020 third-round pick.

A 3rd round pick for a rental Dman with no goals and 10 assists in 49 games. My expectations are rising if we move Maatta or Gus.

- -Doh-

Then why didn't Winnipeg trade for them?
squishy24
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.08.2019

Feb 18 @ 5:51 PM ET
Maatta is not going to get traded. That's just silly. SB just got him. He'll be another dman that SB keeps longer than he should have
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 5:54 PM ET
So per Capfriendly, the Hawks have $55,530,000 tied up in Toews, Kane, Saad, ADB, Smith, Carpenter, Dach, Nylander, Keith, Murphy, Maatta, Boqvist and Seeler. Eight forwards and five defensemen.

Strome, Kubalik, Caggiula, Highmore, KooKoo and Lankinen are RFAs, and Gus, CC and Lehner are UFAs.

In Shaw, DeHaan and Seabrook they have $15,325,000 in LTIR.

Assume cap goes up $1.5MM to $83MM, and all three LTIRs return to the lineup.

$83MM - 55MM = $27,470,000 - $15,375,000LTIR = $12,095,000

Subtract any bonuses, etc and figure they have $11,000,000 conservatively in space.

To sign:

two goalies
three forwards

Even if they signed Strome, Kubalik, Drake and Highmore at only current salary plus 10% minimum QO, that's $5MM from the $11MM, leaving only $6MM for both goalies.

You think Strome and Kubalik are going to accept $1.5MM deals next year?

Absent retirements of injured players, how much better can this team honestly get without shaking things up?

- Return of the Roar

If the league can't grow 3% a year, hence ~$2.5 cap increase that is really sad and would put most companies out of business.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 5:55 PM ET
Alec Martinez being held out of the line-up tonight. Looks like he will go to the GoldenKnights for 2 2nd rounders
- LAHawk



Looks like whatever pent up demand there was, just released. Flurry of trades and almost a week ahead of time showing how important it is for GMs to acquire guys who may not be long term adds (see next season and beyond) to maximize their ROI.

im fairly confident Lehner is getting dealt and most likely Gus.

Hawks are pretty much done and while JC, players and whatever else can say how they need to go on a run, the point is they needed that run right after the all star break and haven't gotten the consistent "flip of the switch" they were hoping for. I don't see/read/hear the quotes from Lehner I did earlier in the year while on this trip, which also coordinates that it was reported the Hawks were fishing to possibly extend him....so if he's getting word from his agent that the Hawks aren't there on term OR AAV then 40 knows the clock is ticking.....NOw could something change in the next 6 days if 40 TRULY wants to stay here and shows his bottom dollar/term AND/OR Bowman comes back with a revised offer? Sure....but I doubt it. And with another viable spot for 40 to land to in Colorado on top of Carolina that we KNOW of, it just raises the return for Bowman.

Saad still gets you the most return IF Bowman has the stones to trade him, but I doubt he will.....he will retool again this summer to tinker with this and try to get closer to a playoff run, but IMO....I just don't see it happening. THey don't have the cap space as IS, and I don't see how 50 can play 55-60 games and stay healthy....and then you are banking on a kid from Rockford duplicating a Raanta/Darling type performance in limited fashion to get those extra points they will surely need when 50 is either hurt OR on the bench.

Gus 100% needs to be sent packing. There is nothing to be debated there.

SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:00 PM ET
If the league can't grow 3% a year, hence ~$2.5 cap increase that is really sad and would put most companies out of business.
- rpeters01


Has the league in the past grown that much? Seems to be every year the league is dependent upon the union using their escalator for the escrow where the higher paid guys female dog and moan about.....see Toews.

Where in hindsight the increase allows the middle tiered guys to earn more and those guys have a lot larger numbers/% of the union vs the top salaried guys.

THe bottom line.....Bowman is up against the wall heading to this offseason for cap space. I have no idea what Kubalik, Strome, Crawford will need. This team also needs the ability to accumulate the LTIR spot so unlike say Toronto it would be asinine to put a SHaw and/or Seabrook or even DeHaan if needed on LTIR before the season starts and negate that ability. THis team isn't ready to WIN NOW.

I think Bowman should be listening on everyone but I highly doubt anyone outside of Gus or Lehner gets moved. I just don't see him selling on Saad or Strome.

IMO....Strome is tiresome. Guy just floats around and I have yet to see him win a race to a loose puck. He doesn't have a great offensive mind to find holes or soft spots to put himself in position to make up for his lack of speed.

I would sell on him, but I think the league sees Strome for what he is.....a nice player but far from the expectations Arizona had when they drafted him so high
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 6:00 PM ET
Nice GM'ing. Wish our guy could pull off stuff like that.
- 67hawks

He did when he got Dinky.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:01 PM ET
Then why didn't Winnipeg trade for them?
- rpeters01


INtra division deals don't happen often.....not saying never but its very rare.

SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:02 PM ET
YOu can also do what Toronto did and put Shaw Seabs or DaHaan if necessary on LTIR before the season, you just get no LTIR salary relief for them during the year.
- LAHawk



Why would a team who likely won't be a Stanley cup contender negate LTIR and max out their payroll and LTIR before the season starts? Talk about backing yourself into a corner.

For Toronto, who thought they could win this year.....sure.

For a team likely coming off multiple last place division finishes? Idiocy.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 6:02 PM ET
Has the league in the past grown that much? Seems to be every year the league is dependent upon the union using their escalator for the escrow where the higher paid guys female dog and moan about.....see Toews.

Where in hindsight the increase allows the middle tiered guys to earn more and those guys have a lot larger numbers/% of the union vs the top salaried guys.

THe bottom line.....Bowman is up against the wall heading to this offseason for cap space. I have no idea what Kubalik, Strome, Crawford will need. This team also needs the ability to accumulate the LTIR spot so unlike say Toronto it would be asinine to put a SHaw and/or Seabrook or even DeHaan if needed on LTIR before the season starts and negate that ability. THis team isn't ready to WIN NOW.

I think Bowman should be listening on everyone but I highly doubt anyone outside of Gus or Lehner gets moved. I just don't see him selling on Saad or Strome.

IMO....Strome is tiresome. Guy just floats around and I have yet to see him win a race to a loose puck. He doesn't have a great offensive mind to find holes or soft spots to put himself in position to make up for his lack of speed.

I would sell on him, but I think the league sees Strome for what he is.....a nice player but far from the expectations Arizona had when they drafted him so high

- SteveRain

If you can't pay your people 3% more per year you won't have them very long.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
INtra division deals don't happen often.....not saying never but its very rare.
- SteveRain

I don't see a big trade, small trade, any trade between us and the AVS.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
Why would a team who likely won't be a Stanley cup contender negate LTIR and max out their payroll and LTIR before the season starts? Talk about backing yourself into a corner.

For Toronto, who thought they could win this year.....sure.

For a team likely coming off multiple last place division finishes? Idiocy.

- SteveRain


If you are not a Stanley Cup contender, why do you need to bank LTIR, if you would be selling atthe TDL, not adding?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:05 PM ET
Instead of being snarky, you could read what I said - the ONLY new space they can get is from unloading larger contracts. Meaning releases/non-re-ups/trades.
- Return of the Roar


They can buy out SMith or Maata…...but again.....for what reason?

Maata could be a veteran d man needed to help stabilize the back end and is a cup winner that could help guide younger players.

IF Strome wants 4 million or higher Id boot his ass to the curb. Talk about a turd.....guy skates like he's carrying a grand piano on his back, doesn't show a lot of "try hard" effort in back checking, and is at best a wing on this team moving forward.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Feb 18 @ 6:06 PM ET
In Free Agency - do you think players look at a team/GM and weigh if he is willing to trade players often or keep players for the life (or close to the life) of the contract? I understand in the business world (which hockey is) players are assets, but sometimes it is nice to know you are wanted.
- powerenforcer

Nobody is wanted in the business world.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:07 PM ET
If you can't pay your people 3% more per year you won't have them very long.
- rpeters01



I don't disagree but go back and look at the cap increases and you will see it required the union's escalator clause to push it through?

Just like when they dropped the cap after their lockout...why? Because the mid market teams pissed and moan. They want(ed) that number as low as possible as their internal payrolls were well below the cap ceilings.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:08 PM ET
I don't see a big trade, small trade, any trade between us and the AVS.
- rpeters01


THey may offer up a lot for Lehner if they feel he can get them to the final and cup. That team no question has the skill....imagine having a rock solid goalie behind them.

And again, Avs aren't likely to extend Lehner so it's not like the Hawks would be facing him 6 times a year for the next 5+ years.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:13 PM ET
If you are not a Stanley Cup contender, why do you need to bank LTIR, if you would be selling atthe TDL, not adding?
- LAHawk


Injuries.....what do they do if Kane or TOews blows out his knee? THey would be f'd. Not only the ice but on the books.

Throwing money at this thing isn't going to expedite it. IF that were the case, they would meet Lehner's demands and pay him 7+ million for 5+ years and then give Kubalik a bridge at higher AAV, and extend Saad.

ALl that still doesn't solve a thing. WE saw it this year. THis team needs younger, faster skilled players to develop....

THe only issue Bowman has, is that Keith seems content to finish here. That's his right and why he has a NMC but its not helping this team long term. Keith is getting a little worse each year....not exponentially worse like Seabrook's plummet down, but hes not a top pairing guy on a cup contender.

IF you think back or watch the Nashville series, he was owned like Toews by Johanssen. The whole team laid egg, but my eyes were opened how badly those 2 got dominated. Keith had no answer for that big goof with his poke check play.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 18 @ 6:14 PM ET
If the league can't grow 3% a year, hence ~$2.5 cap increase that is really sad and would put most companies out of business.
- rpeters01

The "big" cap jump (hopefully) would be after next season (I think) when the TV contracts are re-negotiated.

Hopefully, Bettman learned something from his friend David Stern about how to leverage networks off to dramatically increase the take.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:17 PM ET
I'll give credit to Bowman on his transparency when he's close to something.....it takes prodding by the press but if they flat out ask him if hes close to something he tips his hand a bit.....

WE also have heard/read first hand from Bowman that he's more methodical then most GMs which frustrates some who want ADHD type responses....so I have to think/bet he's starting to gather intel on the market for his assets, weight it, and then go sell.....when he buys he seems to be a lot more aggressive.

With this massive exodus of competitive assets essentially off the block, he may get team's best pitches now....and still has 6 more days to build them up.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 18 @ 6:17 PM ET
Has the league in the past grown that much? Seems to be every year the league is dependent upon the union using their escalator for the escrow where the higher paid guys female dog and moan about.....see Toews.

Where in hindsight the increase allows the middle tiered guys to earn more and those guys have a lot larger numbers/% of the union vs the top salaried guys.


THe bottom line.....Bowman is up against the wall heading to this offseason for cap space. I have no idea what Kubalik, Strome, Crawford will need. This team also needs the ability to accumulate the LTIR spot so unlike say Toronto it would be asinine to put a SHaw and/or Seabrook or even DeHaan if needed on LTIR before the season starts and negate that ability. THis team isn't ready to WIN NOW.

I think Bowman should be listening on everyone but I highly doubt anyone outside of Gus or Lehner gets moved. I just don't see him selling on Saad or Strome.

IMO....Strome is tiresome. Guy just floats around and I have yet to see him win a race to a loose puck. He doesn't have a great offensive mind to find holes or soft spots to put himself in position to make up for his lack of speed.

I would sell on him, but I think the league sees Strome for what he is.....a nice player but far from the expectations Arizona had when they drafted him so high

- SteveRain

Without new TV deals, the HRR can't grow very much year-to-year - how much can you increase ticket prices, how much more merchandise can you sell, how much more revenue can you generate from non-TV sources?

The TV deals are up after next season, I think (or the season after that) - let's see if Bettman can leverage networks against (or with) each other to dramatically increase the incoming.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:19 PM ET
The "big" cap jump (hopefully) would be after next season (I think) when the TV contracts are re-negotiated.

Hopefully, Bettman learned something from his friend David Stern about how to leverage networks off to dramatically increase the take.

- StLBravesFan


I love hockey but it's a distant 4th still behind football, baseball, basketball....in no particular order.

He will want ABC to put it on nationally, as well as ESPN not ESPN2....

I think it's wishful thinking they are going to get some massive TV deal. Not enough to lead to some massive caps....because again you still have a TON of smaller/mid market teams who can't spend that much......not unless they start funneling more money to those teams by the upper echelon teams and that's how you get work stoppages.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 18 @ 6:20 PM ET
I don't disagree but go back and look at the cap increases and you will see it required the union's escalator clause to push it through?

Just like when they dropped the cap after their lockout...why? Because the mid market teams pissed and moan. They want(ed) that number as low as possible as their internal payrolls were well below the cap ceilings.

- SteveRain

The cap dropped after the lock-out to get the owner-player split to 50/50 - had had been something like 60/40 in favor of the players before then.

That's also why there were "compliance buyouts" after that lock-out - without them, teams would not have been able to be compliant with the new cap split. That's why I don't think there will be "compliance buyouts" after the next CBA negotiations - the cap won't go down like it did after 2013.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 18 @ 6:23 PM ET
I love hockey but it's a distant 4th still behind football, baseball, basketball....in no particular order.

He will want ABC to put it on nationally, as well as ESPN not ESPN2....

I think it's wishful thinking they are going to get some massive TV deal. Not enough to lead to some massive caps....because again you still have a TON of smaller/mid market teams who can't spend that much......not unless they start funneling more money to those teams by the upper echelon teams and that's how you get work stoppages.

- SteveRain

I don't know what the new TV contract(s) will bring - the other three sports keep seeing major increases in national TV revenues - I would expect some of that to trickle down.

I doubt that the players would ever agree to getting less than 50% of HRR - and the owners won't agree to giving them more - so that the increase in TV revenues will directly impact the increase in cap.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 18 @ 6:31 PM ET
THey may offer up a lot for Lehner if they feel he can get them to the final and cup. That team no question has the skill....imagine having a rock solid goalie behind them.

And again, Avs aren't likely to extend Lehner so it's not like the Hawks would be facing him 6 times a year for the next 5+ years.

- SteveRain


According to Elliotte Friedman Colorado is looking at Crawford, not Lehner.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Feb 18 @ 6:45 PM ET
LMAO. Even if he trades one of or boththe goalies, he still gets cap space. The argument is meaningless. Two high quality proven goalies, BOTH heading to UFA, one at least should be moved and I promise you someone will give up something at least halfway decent for either. Get something now for them AND STILL have the Cap space.

I wonder if this is the development of the coming Stanclub narrative after he does nothing at the TDL and still loses both to UFA, we can all celebrate how brilliantly Stan "added cap space", with nary a word about a potential prospect or pick that could be added to the mix.

If Stan buys he fails.
If he does nothing he fails.
If he does some solid, under the radar type moves (I am opposed to a total blow up of the roster), clears out a veteran or two (including a goalie), adds prospects/picks then I have more confidence in him leading the way.

- kwolf68


You almost had it right.

If Stan buys he fails.
If Stan does nothing he fails.
If the Hawks pull off a solid, under the radar trade Stan fails because it’s Scotty making that deal.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Feb 18 @ 6:46 PM ET
I don't know what the new TV contract(s) will bring - the other three sports keep seeing major increases in national TV revenues - I would expect some of that to trickle down.

I doubt that the players would ever agree to getting less than 50% of HRR - and the owners won't agree to giving them more - so that the increase in TV revenues will directly impact the increase in cap.

- StLBravesFan


I hope you're right.

Im not against a salary cap because without it the Hawks don't land Hossa in 2009 as Detroit would have had the finances behind Illitch to get Franzen and Hossa on the books.

They need the game to get more recognition in the general public....and while I am not the biggest McDonough fan I think he would be a HUGE get for the NHL and could help expedite that.
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