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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Brady Bests Matthew
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Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jan 18 @ 11:58 PM ET
Michael Stuart: Brady Bests Matthew
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jan 19 @ 3:37 AM ET
Can't wait until Kassian does
Athrin
Joined: 07.07.2016

Jan 19 @ 4:06 AM ET
Sharks lose again
DutchSenators
Location: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Joined: 06.07.2015

Jan 19 @ 5:41 AM ET
Im not really worried since I expect we will go again on a losing streak soon, but next to the Red Wings I also start to think we will end above the Kings. They just cannot seem to score a goal anymore.

Hoping that the Devils beat us after the break and go on a run.

We cant start trading soon enough, many pieces to get rid of
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 19 @ 6:14 AM ET
Combined Tankathon odds for SJ and Ottawa gives the Sens the best probability for a top 3 pick.

I watched a bit of the SJ/Canucks game. It appears the fight (will to compete) has been played out of the big fish. When a shark dies it rolls over on its back and drowns.

Are these Sharks fully dead? I think so. Only 18 shots against Vancouver. They were supposed to win on offensive firepower. Nothing is happening.

Garrioch reporting Doug Wilson is embarrassed over loss of 1st round draft pick and trying to get a 1st pick back. He is open to a trade that could include names like Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl and Brent Burns.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 19 @ 6:51 AM ET
Leafs go into the all star break having been pushed around and out of a playoff position.

However, I think this is more than an early version of your normal Leaf spring choke. This is a team that needs a gut check and a heart beat. They are waiting for the judges to score them extra points on their figure skating routines because they play so pretty. In hockey we count the score...all the other numbers are merely fluff.

Judge #1 scores the Leafs:

CF%: 53.15%
SCF%: 55.88%
HDCF: 52%
xGF: 52.48%

Leafs win! Leafs win!


The Leafs are exhibit #1 for the Sens on what not to do when rebuilding. Analytics based on puck possession without regard for grit or tenacity is sheer lunacy.

Kadri trade was double dumb. He was their only player who caused the opposing team to keep their head up. Guys like Brady Tkachuk and Mark Borowiecki help teams win championships.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jan 19 @ 9:43 AM ET
Happy to finally see a win. I don't think it is particularly helpful for the players to lose 10 straight. Without very significant movement in the standings, Ottawa will finish bottom 6 in the league this year. With a few trades at the deadline, that finish should be bottom 2 to 4. And the bonus is that San Jose is locked into the bottom 6 with Ottawa.

Hogberg has been very consistent and doesn't seem to give up any bad goals. He's looked like a future #1 goaltender so far.
ktownfan
Joined: 12.07.2014

Jan 19 @ 10:59 AM ET
Combined Tankathon odds for SJ and Ottawa gives the Sens the best probability for a top 3 pick.

I watched a bit of the SJ/Canucks game. It appears the fight (will to compete) has been played out of the big fish. When a shark dies it rolls over on its back and drowns.

Are these Sharks fully dead? I think so. Only 18 shots against Vancouver. They were supposed to win on offensive firepower. Nothing is happening.

Garrioch reporting Doug Wilson is embarrassed over loss of 1st round draft pick and trying to get a 1st pick back. He is open to a trade that could include names like Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl and Brent Burns.

- spatso


Funny how everyone chirped that Dorion got taken to Wilson's woodshed over the EK deal yet HERE WE ARE...PD has talent assessment skills aaaaaaaad Trade skills?? Imaging if he had a normal budget..
DutchSenators
Location: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Joined: 06.07.2015

Jan 19 @ 11:44 AM ET
Funny how everyone chirped that Dorion got taken to Wilson's woodshed over the EK deal yet HERE WE ARE...PD has talent assessment skills aaaaaaaad Trade skills?? Imaging if he had a normal budget..
- ktownfan


Hoffman trade still horrible even though Bergman was a (minor) piece in the Duchene trade. Other than that he is doing fine.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 19 @ 1:19 PM ET
Hoffman trade still horrible even though Bergman was a (minor) piece in the Duchene trade. Other than that he is doing fine.
- DutchSenators


What drives me nuts about Dorion is all the dumb little moves he makes:

-trading for Reilly
- signing Sabourin
- smith for Anisimov
- etc

None of those moves are crippling in and of themselves, but he’s made enough of these idiotic moves that taken together, they actually hurt the teams ability to get their young guys into NHL games

Had guys like Anisimov and Reilly not had term left, then fine.....but the fact that they both had 1-way term left on their deals are f-omg awful
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jan 19 @ 1:36 PM ET
Leafs go into the all star break having been pushed around and out of a playoff position.

However, I think this is more than an early version of your normal Leaf spring choke. This is a team that needs a gut check and a heart beat. They are waiting for the judges to score them extra points on their figure skating routines because they play so pretty. In hockey we count the score...all the other numbers are merely fluff.

Judge #1 scores the Leafs:

CF%: 53.15%
SCF%: 55.88%
HDCF: 52%
xGF: 52.48%

Leafs win! Leafs win!


The Leafs are exhibit #1 for the Sens on what not to do when rebuilding. Analytics based on puck possession without regard for grit or tenacity is sheer lunacy.

Kadri trade was double dumb. He was their only player who caused the opposing team to keep their head up. Guys like Brady Tkachuk and Mark Borowiecki help teams win championships.

- spatso


Pointing to their analytics like this isn't really fair. They've received horrible goaltending recently. It's that simple.

The Leafs not being able to get a save doesn't mean they are a bad team any more than Nilsson's little run earlier this team means the Sens are good.
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Jan 19 @ 2:45 PM ET
Funny how everyone chirped that Dorion got taken to Wilson's woodshed over the EK deal yet HERE WE ARE...PD has talent assessment skills aaaaaaaad Trade skills?? Imaging if he had a normal budget..
- ktownfan


I still hate the deal..would’ve rather had him stay.

And let’s be real, none of the players we got back have proven anything yet.

I’ll change my opinion depending on where the sharks pick lands for us.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 19 @ 6:04 PM ET
Pointing to their analytics like this isn't really fair. They've received horrible goaltending recently. It's that simple.

The Leafs not being able to get a save doesn't mean they are a bad team any more than Nilsson's little run earlier this team means the Sens are good.

- Michael_Stuart


Leafs have given up more goals than the Sens. What else do you need to know?

My eyes tell me what they see. The Leafs have more problems than just goaltending.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 20 @ 9:08 AM ET
I still hate the deal..would’ve rather had him stay.

And let’s be real, none of the players we got back have proven anything yet.

I’ll change my opinion depending on where the sharks pick lands for us.

- Trilla


I think EK had to go......he had declining performance, he had (and now has) an albatross of a contract upcoming, and I honestly feel that he had a negative impact on the culture in the locker room. this team seems significantly more cohesive and "together" since EK left.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 20 @ 9:28 AM ET
I think EK had to go......he had declining performance, he had (and now has) an albatross of a contract upcoming, and I honestly feel that he had a negative impact on the culture in the locker room. this team seems significantly more cohesive and "together" since EK left.
- sensarmy_11


I think you are entirely right, in his prime Karlsson alone was worth the price of admission. Today, he is merely a shadow of that prime. I believe the Sens decided to trade Karlsson the summer before he was actually dealt. The talk about negotiations for a new deal was only talk.

The turn around of Sens fans has been pretty good. Everyone is loading onto the rebuild bus and there is a lot of positive talk about the future.


sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 20 @ 9:37 AM ET
I think you are entirely right, in his prime Karlsson alone was worth the price of admission. Today, he is merely a shadow of that prime. I believe the Sens decided to trade Karlsson the summer before he was actually dealt. The talk about negotiations for a new deal was only talk.

The turn around of Sens fans has been pretty good. Everyone is loading onto the rebuild bus and there is a lot of positive talk about the future.

- spatso


that's VERY debatable, as evidenced by the abysmal attendance. I think the hardcore fans are onboard, but the casual fans only see a cheap owner trying to gouge them, and a losing team on the ice. Until either Melnyk goes, or the teams starts to win, or preferably both, attendance will continue to suffer
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 20 @ 11:05 AM ET
that's VERY debatable, as evidenced by the abysmal attendance. I think the hardcore fans are onboard, but the casual fans only see a cheap owner trying to gouge them, and a losing team on the ice. Until either Melnyk goes, or the teams starts to win, or preferably both, attendance will continue to suffer
- sensarmy_11


Just on the basis of an eyeball check...I think attendance has picked up quite a bit. My first thought was that they were probably giving a lot of free tickets up to their corporate partners and sponsors for promotional purposes.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 20 @ 11:24 AM ET
Just on the basis of an eyeball check...I think attendance has picked up quite a bit. My first thought was that they were probably giving a lot of free tickets up to their corporate partners and sponsors for promotional purposes.
- spatso


if you're basing your opinion of an "eyeball check" then I think you desperately need to schedule an appointment with your optometrist....that building is embarrassingly empty. like I said, worst attendance in the league this year.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 20 @ 11:26 AM ET
Pointing to their analytics like this isn't really fair. They've received horrible goaltending recently. It's that simple.

The Leafs not being able to get a save doesn't mean they are a bad team any more than Nilsson's little run earlier this team means the Sens are good.

- Michael_Stuart


Travis Yost has a pretty good article to try and explain the variance which is league wide and not restricted to a Leaf goal tending problem. Goal scoring is up across the league especially against those pretender teams relying heavily on analytics in making roster decisions. https://www.tsn.ca/why-is...ely-this-season-1.1430217

However, Yost fails to address the impact of the measurement effect itself as a cause in its own right. Anyone who has serious experience with performance measures in a business environment learns very quickly to adapt to those who game the system by playing to the measure rather than overall corporate goal.

What has happened with analytics is that some inexperienced managers have got gamed and have managed with analytics in mind. Thinking, if you have good analytics you can win.

This is the flaw in the logic. It happens all the time in the business world. Nobody can dispute the singular notion that the Leafs are the poster child for analytics. The fact, that the Leafs have given up more goals than the Sens has to do with hockey facts. They are soft in their own end. Prima donna forwards fail to play defensive hockey. Goaltenders are left on their own.

You need to be counter intuitive (or perhaps a little crazy) to understand that the best way to beat the Leafs (and similar teams) is to feed their need for excessive puck possession. Essentially, the principle of puck possession gets turned upside down. You defend carefully in your own end knowing that the team dominating on puck possession is becoming progressively less capable of defending in their own end.

Leaf fans are bitterly complaining that they held the puck in the Blackhawk end all night. Yet it seemed like the Hawks scored every time they had a decent counter attack.

So, people will say Leafs need to play better defensive hockey for the playoffs. Problem is they are not built for defensive hockey and do not have the skill or grit to play that game.
andyman998
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.08.2005

Jan 20 @ 11:42 AM ET
What drives me nuts about Dorion is all the dumb little moves he makes:

-trading for Reilly
- signing Sabourin
- smith for Anisimov
- etc

None of those moves are crippling in and of themselves, but he’s made enough of these idiotic moves that taken together, they actually hurt the teams ability to get their young guys into NHL games

Had guys like Anisimov and Reilly not had term left, then fine.....but the fact that they both had 1-way term left on their deals are f-omg awful


Smith and Anisimov pretty much had the exact same contract going forward and are the same age. Pretty much a wash. They needed the contract to make the floor and Anisimov bring a bit more skill. No real issue with that move as Smiths time was clearly over in Ottawa and had an equally terrible contract. Might be able to dump Anisimov at the deadline next year for a late pick.

Sabourin was a 1 year deal. No big deal and lets the kids develop in Belleville getting big minutes rather then 5-10 minutes on the 4th line. He's a healthy scratch most nights anyways so rather have a guy like him as the 13th forward then a young skilled guy. Guessing they just let him walk at the end of the year or similar 1 year deal playing 30-40 games as the 13th forward.

Extra year for Reilly isn't ideal but not a bad 6-7 D that can play the PP and has speed. I would think they can easily trade him if they wanted to if they deem any of the young guys in Belleville ready to step up. Likely trading Hainsey at the deadline so not a bad stop gap for the rest of the year if they want to keep Brannstrom down the rest of the year. Worst case send him to the minors and pay him his 1.5M Need to reach the floor anyways.

Don't really have an issue with any of Dorions moves recently. Hopefully they can take on another Callahan type contract for next year to stock up more picks going forward as reaching the floor will be tough next year the way things are going.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jan 20 @ 12:10 PM ET
Smith and Anisimov pretty much had the exact same contract going forward and are the same age. Pretty much a wash. They needed the contract to make the floor and Anisimov bring a bit more skill. No real issue with that move as Smiths time was clearly over in Ottawa and had an equally terrible contract. Might be able to dump Anisimov at the deadline next year for a late pick.

Sabourin was a 1 year deal. No big deal and lets the kids develop in Belleville getting big minutes rather then 5-10 minutes on the 4th line. He's a healthy scratch most nights anyways so rather have a guy like him as the 13th forward then a young skilled guy. Guessing they just let him walk at the end of the year or similar 1 year deal playing 30-40 games as the 13th forward.

Extra year for Reilly isn't ideal but not a bad 6-7 D that can play the PP and has speed. I would think they can easily trade him if they wanted to if they deem any of the young guys in Belleville ready to step up. Likely trading Hainsey at the deadline so not a bad stop gap for the rest of the year if they want to keep Brannstrom down the rest of the year. Worst case send him to the minors and pay him his 1.5M Need to reach the floor anyways.

Don't really have an issue with any of Dorions moves recently. Hopefully they can take on another Callahan type contract for next year to stock up more picks going forward as reaching the floor will be tough next year the way things are going.

- andyman998


like I said, nothing was major, but it's a bunch of little moves that didn't need to be done. none of them helped the team get better, and you could argue that some made the team slightly worse. In a tank it's pretty inconsequential, but he also made a lot of small dumb moves like that when Ottawa was still a playoff team.

I don't think Pierre Dorion is a good enough GM to build a cup contender........I trust in his ability to judge prospects, but I don't trust his ability to scout pro players already in the league.
khawk
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 20 @ 12:35 PM ET
I still hate the deal..would’ve rather had him stay.
And let’s be real, none of the players we got back have proven anything yet.
I’ll change my opinion depending on where the sharks pick lands for us.

- Trilla

Every single element of that trade has proven to be substantially better for Ottawa than initially realized.
- Tierney is on pace for a 2nd career year for points (>40pts) and faceoffs (>1,000)
- DeMelo has become a reliable top-4 d-man, going from 14min/gp to 20min/gp
- Norris has excelled since the trade at the NCAA, WJC, and AHL levels
- Balcers has 1.3PPG in the AHL this year, and has legitimate NHL upside
- 2nd round pick in 2019 became Sogaard, who looks like a quality G prospect
- 1st round pick in 2020 will likely be an unprotected lottery pick (i.e. gold)
- 2nd round pick in 2021 resulted from the contract extension

It's true that at this point none of them are a Karlsson-quality talent, however there's also no 8x$11.5M contract in the mix. Quite frankly, you have to think that an awful lot of Sharks fans are wondering if they made a Duchene-style mistake with this trade. And if the Hall trade provides any indication of the market for other premium high-end talents, then it's hard to say that Dorion didn't do quite well with this trade.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Jan 20 @ 10:28 PM ET
Every single element of that trade has proven to be substantially better for Ottawa than initially realized.
- Tierney is on pace for a 2nd career year for points (>40pts) and faceoffs (>1,000)
- DeMelo has become a reliable top-4 d-man, going from 14min/gp to 20min/gp
- Norris has excelled since the trade at the NCAA, WJC, and AHL levels
- Balcers has 1.3PPG in the AHL this year, and has legitimate NHL upside
- 2nd round pick in 2019 became Sogaard, who looks like a quality G prospect
- 1st round pick in 2020 will likely be an unprotected lottery pick (i.e. gold)
- 2nd round pick in 2021 resulted from the contract extension

It's true that at this point none of them are a Karlsson-quality talent, however there's also no 8x$11.5M contract in the mix. Quite frankly, you have to think that an awful lot of Sharks fans are wondering if they made a Duchene-style mistake with this trade. And if the Hall trade provides any indication of the market for other premium high-end talents, then it's hard to say that Dorion didn't do quite well with this trade.

- khawk



So much depends on that first round pick. If San Jose was at the top of the standings like many thought they would suddenly the trade doesn't look as good.

...if only San Jose had made the finals (and lost).

Norris I'll give Dorion credit on, I doubt many people thought he'd be close to leading the AHL in scoring as a rookie at this age.

AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jan 20 @ 11:26 PM ET
that's VERY debatable, as evidenced by the abysmal attendance. I think the hardcore fans are onboard, but the casual fans only see a cheap owner trying to gouge them, and a losing team on the ice. Until either Melnyk goes, or the teams starts to win, or preferably both, attendance will continue to suffer
- sensarmy_11


I think the issue is that while the team is starting to acquire picks and prospects (having 2 picks in the top 10/15 will be a great start) there needs to be much more done to solidify this team as a true playoff presence. They need to show up with big contracts (that includes Brady Tkachuk & whoever they draft with their top pick....s)
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 21 @ 5:03 AM ET
Josh Norris leads AhL rookie goal scoring with 22 Alex Formenton is second with 21 goals. Logan Brown has 7 assists in his last three games. Batherson and Chlapik have rejoined the team. Maybe, it might be worth taking a drive down to Belleville to see them in acton. They are in the mix for first place in their division.

Still wondering if Lassi Thomson. Shane Pinto and JBD join them for the playoff experience. NCAA Championship game is April 11; AHL regular season ends April 11.
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