Sean Maloughney: The Myth Behind Late First Round Picks (Spoiler: They Aren't That Good)

some of your first and second overalls arent that good

I think Holland is making the right call for him and the team, though its a tough one for the fan base.

He's obviously stuck in between a rebuild and a going for a playoff spot but it's not ideal for a new GM to sell future assets for the present. He's buying himself some time to build the Oilers in his own vision and I would think a lot of the players currently on the roster aren't a part of that. He needs to make his own picks so he can develop them his way, so he'll need those firsts and he'll need time. Tough for a fan base to deal with but probably better in the long run.

A couple more years and all of the young D will be set, a few contracts will be expiring so they can bring in the right free agents and the cap will go up. All these factors will be huge for the Oilers to add depth, all they have to do is wait.

The Oilers aren't going to be drafting in the 20-25 range. That would require winning a round or 2 in the playoffs. They are going to be drafting in the 10-15 range. Try looking at who has been drafted in those spots instead.

The Oilers aren't going to be drafting in the 20-25 range. That would require winning a round or 2 in the playoffs. They are going to be drafting in the 10-15 range. Try looking at who has been drafted in those spots instead.
- wreckage

If they made a deal by trading a first round pick (such as the Taylor Hall trade mentioned in the blog) they likely would be such a team.

Good read, Hall wasnt going to sign any ext till summer, you guys would have lost him and prospects to only lose in the first round, stay the course and build.

This team wasn't a Hall away from being a safe bet to make the conference finals. Their lack of forward depth and a high end Dmen would've still left them in the bubble tier, though on the higher end of said bubble. That being said, I don't disagree with the overall premise- especially with Tyler Wright running the draft.

I'm not an Oilers fan and I agree with some of the sentiment put here but Holland was wise to not trade their 1st++++ for a UFA in Hall, if it backfires you just sold some valuable futures for a rental.

If it works you likely enjoy a 1st or 2nd round exit at best and then look at this same crappy roster in the summer except missing more futures/trade chips and say 'what are we gonna do now with this mess?

I agree that Holland should do something as this team is close to being a playoff team and as long as they have McDavid and Draisaitl with a few other decent players (RNH,Klefbom,etc)this is where this team is likely always gonna be, a wildcard/bubble team so having said that I think the Oilers are in no position to trade for high end/costly rentals and the 1st should be off limits BUT I think he should look at trading some 2nds and B-prospects for RFA players that the Oilers will control and can be signed to deals so they'll help next season and beyond, I know cap space is tight in Edmonton but it can be done.
There's a few rumored to be available that could help the Oilers and fill some holes in their lineup.

No team is built only through the draft but can't mortgage the future for rentals, a middle ground approach is what's best for the Oilers in my opinion.

Seems like the entire premise of this post is that the Oil will (or would) be picking 24-31st.

Might wanna address the fact that odds are the Oil don’t pick that late. It is more or less just as likely that they pick top 10.

If they made a deal by trading a first round pick (such as the Taylor Hall trade mentioned in the blog) they likely would be such a team.
- freelancer

Might be a stretch to say that one forward, no matter who it is, would put the Oilers in the same group as the Caps, Bruins, Blues, Pens etc. Maybe that’s the issue between fan perception and management’s assessment. On the surface it seems like secondary scoring is the problem, but I’m thinking management sees deeper concerns on the back end and in goal as well as the overall forward depth that they would like to address. Being up against the cap is also an issue.

Overall I think any new management team is going to take their time to fully assess what they have and need, it’s not like a coaching change where it can potentially be a quick turnaround. On that level keeping picks makes sense.

Rasmus Sandin??

Alot better than Joe veleno lol

Rasmus Sandin??

Alot better than Joe veleno lol
- legendguy

- RafiDRW

Hahaha...Edmonton with no prospects

If they made a deal by trading a first round pick (such as the Taylor Hall trade mentioned in the blog) they likely would be such a team.
- freelancer

You judge the value of the pick to the Oilers based on where it's most likely to be if they keep it, not on where it's most likely to be if they give it up.

Apparently Kreider has every Canadian team on his No Trade list. People can stop swooning for him now.

Apparently Kreider has every Canadian team on his No Trade list. People can stop swooning for him now.
- wreckage

Bummer yet not surprising.

Hahaha...Edmonton with no prospects
- legendguy

If they made a deal by trading a first round pick (such as the Taylor Hall trade mentioned in the blog) they likely would be such a team.
- freelancer

As the result of a very good friend of mine being a lifelong Oiler fan, I have followed the Oilers (for obvious reasons, tonight I won't be a fan). This team is currently a power play wrecking ball carried by Draisaitl and McDavid at 5v5 - but the team is still -19 at 5v5 play. It's nice to see Nurse starting to emerge more, but overall I don't think Taylor Hall is the answer. The answer there was to not trade him to begin with, but that's just living in the past.

He has 5 playoff games in his career. He's probably not the guy to bank on to "carry" you to the second round, considering he's never been there himself. The Oilers should continue to build up their prospect capital / prospect pool and Hall has said that he'll be testing Free Agency. Couple that with the recent shaky play of the Oilers, and my first concern would be that they don't even make the playoffs let alone shoot for the second round.

Apparently Kreider has every Canadian team on his No Trade list. People can stop swooning for him now.
- wreckage

No surprise there.

The biggest need is an Elite Defensive defensemen.

Taylor Hall doesn't score 3+ goals a game.

Losing 5-1 isn't a scoring problem... its a keeping the puck out of your own end of the ice problem.

Ken Holland doesn't have the luxury of financing the Oilers future... not after Peter Chiarelli.

Let him have a year to pick or to deal those picks at the draft.

No surprise there.
- Wildschwein

I know we never agreed on a bet but you can pick whatever avatar you want and name the terms, I know the deal.

I know we never agreed on a bet but you can pick whatever avatar you want and name the terms, I know the deal.
- JRR1285

Hullo JRR.

Make you a deal. If the Rangers avoid going 0-3 against the Islanders before the break, you can go back to wearing the avi of your choice.

If the Rangers go 0-3 however, you must sport Draisaitl’s mug till the Stanley Cup is next raised.

It's nice to see Nurse starting to emerge more
- Monkeypunk

He is a defensive liability... that's what's emerged. He should be tried on the wing with RNH...