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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Game-day...finally: BUF/TBL at 2 p.m. ET on NBCSN
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Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Nov 8 @ 9:09 PM ET
Yeah, to many passengers, wouldn't mind seeing what Asplund could do. Send Mitts and Erod down. Mitts can't even handle the 3C job right now
- Buff36


How do you know who to blame for the 3rd line? All 4 guys who have played there have been poor.
Frizzlefry
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Don't get so high and mighty about your superiority over Lockport, NY
Joined: 10.10.2015

Nov 8 @ 9:10 PM ET
Basically, if you pull Risto outta the lineup (say for injury), what a typical replacement would be. Like a 7th D or a call up from the AHL or a free agent signing who isn't playing.

If you remove the player and replace him with any borderline NHL body, essentially.

- matty12345


Thanks. Sounds like a stupid stat but I also don’t anything about the fancy stats. Just never took the time to dive into them.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Nov 8 @ 9:14 PM ET
Thompson another goal

12 goals and 21 points in 22 games for Rochester.

Pretty good
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Nov 8 @ 9:16 PM ET
Thompson another goal

12 goals and 21 points in 22 games for Rochester.

Pretty good

- sbroads24


I always liked the Tage signing
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Nov 8 @ 9:17 PM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Nov 8 @ 9:22 PM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.

- matty12345

Interesting
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 8 @ 9:29 PM ET
How do you know who to blame for the 3rd line? All 4 guys who have played there have been poor.
- Lunaion

I blame them all, but Mitts needs to work on his game, he isn't what he supposed to be, looks like he was rushed.
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Nov 8 @ 9:32 PM ET
Thanks. Sounds like a stupid stat but I also don’t anything about the fancy stats. Just never took the time to dive into them.
- Frizzlefry

All the above replacements are based of WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball. The idea was that all stats are basically tools we use to predict if a player is good or bad at baseball. Well being good means you should win, and being bad means you should lose. So a good player on your team means you will win more. How much more? Winning is ultimately all that matters, so of you win three extra games with me and two extra games with Sbroads, I'm better. Plane and simple. WAR tries to eliminate all stats and calculate one single number.

For example, Mike Trout is worth like 9 wins or so. Without him I'm maybe a 81-81 team, but I sign him and I'm suddenly 90-72.

That's absurdly high. Most stars are worth 4-7 wins in baseball.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 8 @ 9:32 PM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.

- matty12345

Nice I like this, to bad somebody isn't paying you to stick a poker up Botts ass, light a little fire.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Nov 8 @ 10:19 PM ET
I blame them all, but Mitts needs to work on his game, he isn't what he supposed to be, looks like he was rushed.
- Buff36


I think Mitts has been the best of the 4, but I'm far from feeling certain. I don't think that line gets any better with ERod or Asplund at C.
Sabre_Tooth
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NE
Joined: 06.17.2015

Nov 8 @ 10:31 PM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.

- matty12345


It's also about sustained success... you have to have a pipeline to do this.
Sabre_Tooth
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NE
Joined: 06.17.2015

Nov 8 @ 10:32 PM ET
Thompson another goal

12 goals and 21 points in 22 games for Rochester.

Pretty good

- sbroads24


He needs to play a power forward role to get back in the nhl and it seems he is starting to do that by watching his play in roch
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Nov 8 @ 10:32 PM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.

- matty12345


The second we trade for a 2C and everyone gets pushed down a peg that will help. Call up Tage.

Don’t give up hope in Mitts, and don’t count Cozens out before he gets here.

Every impact player in the NHL was once a prospect with potential.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Nov 8 @ 10:52 PM ET
The second we trade for a 2C and everyone gets pushed down a peg that will help. Call up Tage.

Don’t give up hope in Mitts, and don’t count Cozens out before he gets here.

Every impact player in the NHL was once a prospect with potential.

- Swedish_Jesus


I took his comment to mean that he wants the team to acquire proven talent and let the kids slot behind that. Basically what you said in your first paragraph.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Nov 9 @ 12:52 AM ET
Risto would probably be better at football than hockey. He could be a tight end, he would get to hit people, play only offense and no defense, and the QB handles all the passing in that sport, so he would't have to do that either.
- matty12345


Ok, credit where credit is due
This is pretty damn funny
Well done
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Nov 9 @ 1:13 AM ET
In a bit of breaking news Wednesday, the Evolving Wild twins updated the 2019-2020 GAR and RAPM metrics to their site, evolving-hockey.com. It created some buzz amongst Sabres twitter because those who ventured over to the site saw a shocking name sitting atop the team in GAR and WAR - Rasmus Ristolainen.


GAR, or goals above replacement, is an attempt to measure a player’s true value on the basis of goals scored for and against when a player is on the ice. This metric is then, theoretically, able to be converted to “wins above replacement”, or WAR for short.

WAR metrics in hockey somewhat mimic the concept of WAR metrics used in baseball, where the stat originated. Evolving-Hockey’s metric takes into account even-strength, power play, and shorthanded situations, as well as penalties drawn and taken.


Evolving-Hockey.com
So why does Rasmus Ristolainen lead the way for the Sabres in GAR totals so far this season?

Well, for starters, Ristolainen has performed above replacement value in nearly every category. He totals a 3.6 GAR in total, but, by measure, his best area in total this season to date has been his even-strength offense at 1.2. His totals take a slight dip in even-strength defense, powerplay offense, shorthanded defense, and penalties taken, which all come in about equal. Penalties drawn is the only category that Ristolainen records at about replacement level so far, which isn’t all too rare for a defenseman.

Ristolainen supporters will take this information and cite improvement. The haters will scoff at this metric and point to his Corsi numbers so far. So which side is right? Well, GAR can tell us a bit more if we dig a little deeper.


You see, the problem with taking GAR totals is that heavy-minutes eaters, such as Ristolainen, are accumulating more of what happens on the ice than their teammates simply because they, themselves, are on the ice for more events. So, in a GAR model such as Evolving-Hockey’s that uses actual goals as its basis, there is a higher chance a goal event happens when this person is on the ice (for better or worse).

To paint a better picture, I personally like to turn to GAR/60, which measures a players goals above replacement per 60 minutes played because this puts every player on the same level as far as ice-time. This better displays what a player is doing with his ice-time given.

Interesting enough, when we look up the Sabres’ GAR/60 numbers, Ristolainen drops to sixth on the team, behind Casey Mittelstadt, Marco Scandella, Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel, and Kyle Okposo, respectively.


What does the per-60 breakdown help us decipher about Ristolainen’s game? Well, there is one category that he is clearly best in, and it’s not even-strength offense like the totals told us.

His power play offense weighs in at 1.436, which comes to no surprise to those that have followed him closely. He’s always been a really strong asset on the power play, and it has showed in the past in his point totals. The difference this season, of course, is that he has been relegated to the second unit, which clearly receives less time to strut their stuff.

Interestingly, his second-best category has been his shorthanded defense, and then he floats a little above replacement level at even-strength offense and defense as well as penalties taken. Clearly, his even-strength GAR totals have been inflated by the fact that he is Buffalo’s even-strength minutes leader.


What can we conclude?

The answer is pretty much what we’ve concluded about Ristolainen for a few years now. He’s pretty much being overused at even-strength, although through the first 15 games this season he’s been able to remain a positive impact player. There are many teams across the NHL that he could upgrade on the power play, but with Rasmus Dahlin quarterbacking the first unit admirably it’s not likely he’ll get the opportunity in Buffalo going forward.

So in other words, his usage so far this season hasn’t really been to his strengths. He has, however, held up ok in the role he’s been cast. So really, the only question that remains, is, can Ristolainen keep it up?



Sbroads - your the stats guy right?

- Boss34


He only cherry picks the stats that fit his narrative
matty12345
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.11.2007

Nov 9 @ 3:54 AM ET
He only cherry picks the stats that fit his narrative
- jdfitz77

Interesting stats on Risto. If I was the coach I'd do exactly what the article says. Get his minutes down to 20-21 minutes a night, and take all the extra time away from 5v5 ice time. Put him first pk and first pp. He doesn't need to QB the PP, he can play opposite Dahlin and let it rip, while Dahlin is the passer (think McCabe and Kaberle on the old Sundin Leafs). Get Olofsson or Skinner off the first PP and run three forwards.

Of course, that's kinda what should have been done three seasons ago. The trouble with Risto is every coach overplays him. Unfortunately coaches are always doing those kinds of things, like using Larsson tonight as the extra attacker. It's so stupid but it makes sense to them.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 9 @ 7:20 AM ET
Could have gotten Fabbri on the cheap, a injury history, but goes out and scores 2 goals for Detroit. Botts needs to get his ass in gear
rapperray
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Searching for the America I once knew and loved, NY
Joined: 02.22.2007

Nov 9 @ 8:32 AM ET
Well, Well, Well.... haven't we seen this act before from the Sabres.... A hot furious start and then a nosedive all the way to the basement.... Brace yourselves people for a little DEJA VU....
LeafGuy89
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 05.13.2017

Nov 9 @ 8:44 AM ET
Could have gotten Fabbri on the cheap, a injury history, but goes out and scores 2 goals for Detroit. Botts needs to get his ass in gear
- Buff36


Its only 1 game. Great debut for Fabbri but uncertain he can keep up solid production.
Frizzlefry
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Don't get so high and mighty about your superiority over Lockport, NY
Joined: 10.10.2015

Nov 9 @ 8:50 AM ET
All the above replacements are based of WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball. The idea was that all stats are basically tools we use to predict if a player is good or bad at baseball. Well being good means you should win, and being bad means you should lose. So a good player on your team means you will win more. How much more? Winning is ultimately all that matters, so of you win three extra games with me and two extra games with Sbroads, I'm better. Plane and simple. WAR tries to eliminate all stats and calculate one single number.

For example, Mike Trout is worth like 9 wins or so. Without him I'm maybe a 81-81 team, but I sign him and I'm suddenly 90-72.

That's absurdly high. Most stars are worth 4-7 wins in baseball.

- matty12345


Thanks Matty. For me that raises the question of how do you determine that Mike Trout is worth 9 more wins. More of a rhetorical question. Not necessarily looking for you to walk me through this. Appreciate your explanation though. Makes more sense now.
Frizzlefry
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Don't get so high and mighty about your superiority over Lockport, NY
Joined: 10.10.2015

Nov 9 @ 8:51 AM ET
The team needs a core shakeup. We have three core forwards, it's just simply not enough to score. If we get 4 goals tonight we win 4-3 and everything looks like it did when we were 7-0-1. But we can't consistently score 3.5 GPG, and even with above average goaltending we struggle to win.

It's time to stop counting 'hopes' as building blocks. Olofsson and Mittelstadt and Cozens aren't core hockey players, because they have done nothing at this level and maybe never will. You can't keep building around potential. You have to build around actual players.

Botts needs to trade 2-3 defenseman, and not just Bogosian and Scandella. He needs to flip valuable, quality D for valuable quality forwards. Dahlin is off limits, but no one else should be.

On the right I have Joker, Miller, Montour, Risto. At LEAST one of them has to be moved. If Joker can get me a premium young scorer, the GM has to listen. I'm looking to keep Miller because I don't think he can bring a young core forward, but the other three could.

On the left I Have Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Pilut. Again, I'm looking to trade Pilut or McCabe. These guys have value and could be traded for young forwards.

Sadly the sabres don't have a single dangerous offensive prospect in Rochester. If the core is going to change, it has to come from outside through trades.

No more worst forward in the league on the second line. No more signing a third liner and making him your 2C. No more AHLers on the first line. Let's get two or three exciting young forwards. Maybe after we will be thin on D. Who cares. We've proven over and over we don't have enough forwards to win.

/Rant.

- matty12345


I agree. I’d even be open to seeing what someone like Reinhart can get me.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Nov 9 @ 8:54 AM ET
Who was the author of this article...sounds like Chzd D at DBtB

In a bit of breaking news Wednesday, the Evolving Wild twins updated the 2019-2020 GAR and RAPM metrics to their site, evolving-hockey.com. It created some buzz amongst Sabres twitter because those who ventured over to the site saw a shocking name sitting atop the team in GAR and WAR - Rasmus Ristolainen.


GAR, or goals above replacement, is an attempt to measure a player’s true value on the basis of goals scored for and against when a player is on the ice. This metric is then, theoretically, able to be converted to “wins above replacement”, or WAR for short.

WAR metrics in hockey somewhat mimic the concept of WAR metrics used in baseball, where the stat originated. Evolving-Hockey’s metric takes into account even-strength, power play, and shorthanded situations, as well as penalties drawn and taken.


Evolving-Hockey.com
So why does Rasmus Ristolainen lead the way for the Sabres in GAR totals so far this season?

Well, for starters, Ristolainen has performed above replacement value in nearly every category. He totals a 3.6 GAR in total, but, by measure, his best area in total this season to date has been his even-strength offense at 1.2. His totals take a slight dip in even-strength defense, powerplay offense, shorthanded defense, and penalties taken, which all come in about equal. Penalties drawn is the only category that Ristolainen records at about replacement level so far, which isn’t all too rare for a defenseman.

Ristolainen supporters will take this information and cite improvement. The haters will scoff at this metric and point to his Corsi numbers so far. So which side is right? Well, GAR can tell us a bit more if we dig a little deeper.


You see, the problem with taking GAR totals is that heavy-minutes eaters, such as Ristolainen, are accumulating more of what happens on the ice than their teammates simply because they, themselves, are on the ice for more events. So, in a GAR model such as Evolving-Hockey’s that uses actual goals as its basis, there is a higher chance a goal event happens when this person is on the ice (for better or worse).

To paint a better picture, I personally like to turn to GAR/60, which measures a players goals above replacement per 60 minutes played because this puts every player on the same level as far as ice-time. This better displays what a player is doing with his ice-time given.

Interesting enough, when we look up the Sabres’ GAR/60 numbers, Ristolainen drops to sixth on the team, behind Casey Mittelstadt, Marco Scandella, Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel, and Kyle Okposo, respectively.


What does the per-60 breakdown help us decipher about Ristolainen’s game? Well, there is one category that he is clearly best in, and it’s not even-strength offense like the totals told us.

His power play offense weighs in at 1.436, which comes to no surprise to those that have followed him closely. He’s always been a really strong asset on the power play, and it has showed in the past in his point totals. The difference this season, of course, is that he has been relegated to the second unit, which clearly receives less time to strut their stuff.

Interestingly, his second-best category has been his shorthanded defense, and then he floats a little above replacement level at even-strength offense and defense as well as penalties taken. Clearly, his even-strength GAR totals have been inflated by the fact that he is Buffalo’s even-strength minutes leader.


What can we conclude?

The answer is pretty much what we’ve concluded about Ristolainen for a few years now. He’s pretty much being overused at even-strength, although through the first 15 games this season he’s been able to remain a positive impact player. There are many teams across the NHL that he could upgrade on the power play, but with Rasmus Dahlin quarterbacking the first unit admirably it’s not likely he’ll get the opportunity in Buffalo going forward.

So in other words, his usage so far this season hasn’t really been to his strengths. He has, however, held up ok in the role he’s been cast. So really, the only question that remains, is, can Ristolainen keep it up?



Sbroads - your the stats guy right?

- Boss34

Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Nov 9 @ 9:03 AM ET
Its only 1 game. Great debut for Fabbri but uncertain he can keep up solid production.
- LeafGuy89

Oh I understand that, but it would have been a high reward low risk move. The way it's going right now, couldn't have hurt.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Nov 9 @ 9:06 AM ET
I see drinky McLoser was here last night again.

NFN
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