“Long story short on Alex Galchenyuk: He is a pretty good player that is probably going to continue to be a pretty good player and nothing more. If I were a betting man, I would say he finishes the 2019-20 season with a perfectly normal and expected 20-goal, 50-55-point Alex Galchenyuk-type of season.”

The article literally concludes with expecting him to produce like he has before. You wasted a lot of words to argue nothing.
- j.boyd919

30 points isn’t 20 and 60 points is not 50. 10 points is a pretty big swing and I don’t think it’s nothing at all. I also didn’t say my gripe was solely with that article otherwise I would’ve referenced it more, my gripe is moreso with people saying the kid is probably going to be a letdown or that his numbers likely won’t improve because “he is what he is”

I don’t think Galchenyuk will produce more solely because he’s coming to a better team. I think he will because he’s going to be a good fit in our top 6 and on our PP

30 points isn’t 20 and 60 points is not 50. 10 points is a pretty big swing and I don’t think it’s nothing at all. I also didn’t say my gripe was solely with that article otherwise I would’ve referenced it more, my gripe is moreso with people saying the kid is probably going to be a letdown or that his numbers likely won’t improve because “he is what he is”

I don’t think Galchenyuk will produce more solely because he’s coming to a better team. I think he will because he’s going to be a good fit in our top 6 and on our PP
- WSCTeton17

You really like talking in circles eh?

30 points isn’t 20 and 60 points is not 50. 10 points is a pretty big swing and I don’t think it’s nothing at all. I also didn’t say my gripe was solely with that article otherwise I would’ve referenced it more, my gripe is moreso with people saying the kid is probably going to be a letdown or that his numbers likely won’t improve because “he is what he is”

I don’t think Galchenyuk will produce more solely because he’s coming to a better team. I think he will because he’s going to be a good fit in our top 6 and on our PP
- WSCTeton17

He will only be a let down to the people that expect more from him that they should and that’s on them, not the player.

I think he’d be a great fit on the top line but we’ll see. Hockey Ref shows he’s a career 50.5 CF% player so I just don’t get the whole he’s a drag thing. My opinions can 100% be swayed I just need to see it. One thing that bothers me a lot is his possession quality has been negative the last 3 years
- WSCTeton17

I look at relative possession numbers to take out the teammate effect and weigh Fenwick, high danger chances, and expected Goals for more than Corsi. Galchenyuk doesn't come out well the last 3 years.

We can keep arguing it, but he'll either perform and prove you right or not. I'm listening to what you're saying, but I'm still going to go off what his history shows until he proves otherwise.

True enough. I’m just pointing out all the other guys are training hard too. And the peer group he is going up against only gets bigger as he goes pro.
- Feds91Stammer

Yeah and I don't disagree at all. Earlier in the off-season there was a lot of hype over his workout videos and I know you weren't around for a while then, so just adding context. It doesn't increase my expectations of him. Bjorkvist and Hallander need to score a little more before I get too excited.

So 20 goals and 50-55 points is a fair expectation no?
- Feds91Stammer

I’ve got him pegged for a 25/30 pace with what I think is a likely possibility of a 30/35 season so yes and I haven’t been shy about saying it. When people use terms like “bust” I’d just like to know why. Isn’t that what these forums are about? Having opinions and justifying why you feel that way?

To me the details matter. In lending every 1/8th of a point is a big deal. Same thing when we talk about Pettersson’s worth. Some had him and below 2 and some above 2. Some had him as low as 1.5 and some as high as 3.5.

You guys are obviously smart I just think sometimes there’s too much weight on long averages and sometimes too much on recency bias. Personally, I think Neal was going to rebound whether he got traded or not. I think last year was an outlier

I've been seeing a few places suggest the best spot for Galchenyuk might be with Sid. I have to disagree about him being a drag on possession, too much data says he is. There is some support for what you've been saying about him getting more gritty though.

Anyways, playing with Sid's group, you can hide a bad possession player if he can finish because everyone else on that unit is a good possession player. Might be better than on Malkin's group where a trio of Malkin, Galchenyuk, and Schultz is high on skill but as two guys who drag possession and Malkin is only slightly positive at this point. Puts a lot of pressure on the other 2 guys to balance it out.
- Tojo.

I would say that Guentzel is one of, if not the worst defensive forwards on the team. I would also say that I think Guentzel should be stapled to Crosby indefinitely (really the only two about this I would say). Galch has a reputation as being not very defensively responsible, which might be putting it nicely. I wouldn't want to add that much defensive responsibility to Crosby's plate - I think it might bring back memories of the Johnston era in terms of neutering Crosby's offense.

Maybe Galch got that reputation when he was playing center, maybe he's improved his defense over the years, I don't know.

Malkin isn't a defensive stalwart, either, so I would expect a good defensive forward on his line if Galch ends up there to balance it out, so probably anyone but McCann.

I’ve got him pegged for a 25/30 pace with what I think is a likely possibility of a 30/35 season so yes and I haven’t been shy about saying it. When people use terms like “bust” I’d just like to know why. Isn’t that what these forums are about? Having opinions and justifying why you feel that way?

To me the details matter. In lending every 1/8th of a point is a big deal. Same thing when we talk about Pettersson’s worth. Some had him and below 2 and some above 2. Some had him as low as 1.5 and some as high as 3.5.

You guys are obviously smart I just think sometimes there’s too much weight on long averages and sometimes too much on recency bias. Personally, I think Neal was going to rebound whether he got traded or not. I think last year was an outlier
- WSCTeton17

So you think it’s likely he has a career year? What probably percentage is likely for you?

I look at relative possession numbers to take out the teammate effect and weigh Fenwick, high danger chances, and expected Goals for more than Corsi. Galchenyuk doesn't come out well the last 3 years.

We can keep arguing it, but he'll either perform and prove you right or not. I'm listening to what you're saying, but I'm still going to go off what his history shows until he proves otherwise.
- Tojo.

And using those metrics you’re definitely not wrong but as RW pointed out his QoT was a big factor in shot attempts, assists, and quality and playing with Sid or Geno has to be some type of improvement

Obviously I’m excited. I’m not expecting 60-70 points but if he meshes in our top 6 and on PP1 it won’t surprise me one bit

So you think it’s likely he has a career year? What probably percentage is likely for you?
- Feds91Stammer

Yup. Taking into account prior production while recognizing last season as an outlier and taking into account system, style of play, likely QoT, likely increase in TOI. I think if he stays healthy that he’s likely to be a good fit

I also think (many disagree) that we’re a top two team in our division. I think we’re deeper and I actually have confidence in our goaltending now

Side note: I just said hi to Shane Doan 😍

So you think it’s likely he has a career year? What probably percentage is likely for you?
- Feds91Stammer

I forgot to put my likely % but I’m going to appeal to the player as a person and go with 80%. After working with the guys for over a year now and seeing how quickly they blow through their paychecks they fully understand this is a business and that production means a bigger paycheck. I think he’s got tons of incentive, critics, etc. The motivation is definitely there, I think the timing works because I think this entire franchise is motivated and primed for a better season than last

When you say career year I consider a career year beating previous totals, doesn’t mean they have to be bested by 10 or 20% or anything but that’s just my take

My confidence on JJ being passed on the depth chart? Not high. Not high at all but there’s a chance

Yup. Taking into account prior production while recognizing last season as an outlier and taking into account system, style of play, likely QoT, likely increase in TOI. I think if he stays healthy that he’s likely to be a good fit

I also think (many disagree) that we’re a top two team in our division. I think we’re deeper and I actually have confidence in our goaltending now

Side note: I just said hi to Shane Doan 😍
- WSCTeton17

I don’t understand how you can ignore last season “because it’s an outlier”.

I don’t understand how you can ignore last season “because it’s an outlier”.
- Feds91Stammer

I’m not ignoring it like it never existed. I’m not including it in that average because I feel those other seasons with a closer proximity of QoT and style of play accurately reflects his production. I did say that he lead that team in goals while flanking Cousins. Could I give it a % weighting? Sure, I could

Is Guentzel going to score 40 goals playing with Garland and Cousins? My guess is no, he probably doesn’t. That AZ much like Anaheim was decimated by injury. I’m not going to throw Getzlaf way down my fantasy draft ranking just because his pace dropped to 59 on an injured squad

I take the same approach with James Neal. Neal to me doesn’t look like a player who’s fallen off a cliff like Erickson. I think his 5% shot and 25 point pace will rebound closer to his 11-12% and 45-50 point range. I think his QoT, TOI, and quality of opportunities will all increase

Feds (et all) how would you go about projecting production for Anaheim players like Getzlaf?

I haven’t looked into it but I’m guessing that year Florida has all those injuries and fired Gallant that production dipped and rebounded the following season

I’m not ignoring it like it never existed. I’m not including it in that average because I feel those other seasons with a closer proximity of QoT and style of play accurately reflects his production. I did say that he lead that team in goals while flanking Cousins. Could I give it a % weighting? Sure, I could

Is Guentzel going to score 40 goals playing with Garland and Cousins? My guess is no, he probably doesn’t. That AZ much like Anaheim was decimated by injury. I’m not going to throw Getzlaf way down my fantasy draft ranking just because his pace dropped to 59 on an injured squad
- WSCTeton17

So you’re not ignoring it but instead you are just ignoring it. Got it. Let’s pretend he didn’t play with Keller, OEL, and Schmaltz.

Feds (et all) how would you go about projecting production for Anaheim players like Getzlaf?

I haven’t looked into it but I’m guessing that year Florida has all those injuries and fired Gallant that production dipped and rebounded the following season
- WSCTeton17

Getzlaf is a 34 year old that has seen the injury list frequently in his career. 10-15 goals and 45-55 points would seem reasonable.

I would say that Guentzel is one of, if not the worst defensive forwards on the team. I would also say that I think Guentzel should be stapled to Crosby indefinitely (really the only two about this I would say). Galch has a reputation as being not very defensively responsible, which might be putting it nicely. I wouldn't want to add that much defensive responsibility to Crosby's plate - I think it might bring back memories of the Johnston era in terms of neutering Crosby's offense.

Maybe Galch got that reputation when he was playing center, maybe he's improved his defense over the years, I don't know.

Malkin isn't a defensive stalwart, either, so I would expect a good defensive forward on his line if Galch ends up there to balance it out, so probably anyone but McCann.
- Hockey66

I thought Guentzel improved noticably last year defensively, at least to the point he wasn't a liability as he kind of was previously. You might be right about worst on team (other than Galchenyuk) but that's mainly because most of the forwards play defense now that Phil, Sheary, Sprong are all gone.

Also agree McCann isn't so good defensively that you can make him the defensively responsible forward on a line lacking it. He's not a liability, but he's not going to tip the balance either. I'd try other options with more offensive upside first, but they might need to use Simon on line 2 to balance out the metrics.

So you’re not ignoring it but instead you are just ignoring it. Got it. Let’s pretend he didn’t play with Keller, OEL, and Schmaltz.
- Feds91Stammer

Hold on hold on, I thought QoT didn’t matter...

Are you trying to tell me those guys had good seasons? OEL looked more like a #2 or 3 defender than a #1 last year. Keller was hugely on the perimeter and went from 50 ES points to 27. Schmaltz played all of 16 games before getting hurt. So that’s cool

I thought Guentzel improved noticably last year defensively, at least to the point he wasn't a liability as he kind of was previously. You might be right about worst on team (other than Galchenyuk) but that's mainly because most of the forwards play defense now that Phil, Sheary, Sprong are all gone.

Also agree McCann isn't so good defensively that you can make him the defensively responsible forward on a line lacking it. He's not a liability, but he's not going to tip the balance either. I'd try other options with more offensive upside first, but they might need to use Simon on line 2 to balance out the metrics.
- Tojo.

This makes me happy.

I agree with your post and I think we see both Simon and Horny in the top 6 more often than not. I don't know much about Kahun so he is kind of a wild card. If we somehow end up with extra bottom 6 centers (not likely), then I could see Bjug being a top 6 winger, too.

https://twitter.com/gunne.../1161721594147934209?s=21

Apparently QoT does matter. Weird

Hold on hold on, I thought QoT didn’t matter...

Are you trying to tell me those guys had good seasons? OEL looked more like a #2 or 3 defender than a #1 last year. Keller was hugely on the perimeter and went from 50 ES points to 27. Schmaltz played all of 16 games before getting hurt. So that’s cool
- WSCTeton17

So those guys were all worse because of Galchenyuk?

So those guys were all worse because of Galchenyuk?
- Feds91Stammer

Nah. No impact

21.25

Apparently QoT and deployment doesn’t matter 😂
- WSCTeton17

Hahahah

Because he was involved in the Kessel trade and RW is butt hurt about it. He could score a million goals and the Pens with the cup and RWs article the next day will be a graph showing that Kessel was better at controlled entries.
- stackthepads

Geez hahah “a graph showing better controlled entries?” Shoot me