Ryan Wilson: Trying to find proper balance with Marcus Pettersson extension

Great to read a fresh new take on things, oh wait...

Shatty to the lightning for dirt cheap... yeesh

I don't understand the constant mentions of GMJR "throwing away the future". Yes, he has traded first round picks. But very rarely for a rental.

He also rarely let's valuable pieces walk for nothing. For example... out of 1 first round pick, he got Perron, then 3.5 years of Hagelin, then would have been 3 years of Pearson if he panned out.

You can criticize some of the moves, sure. But I think GMJR has actually done an admiral job and balancing win-now and keeping the future in mind. The team right now is as young as it's been in a long time. And personally I'd rather have young guys playing on the Penguins right now than gamble with a bunch of prospects.

Could the 🐧 have used shattenkirk...

Could the 🐧 have used shattenkirk...
- kaptaan

I believe most teams could use him at that cost.

I believe most teams could use him at that cost.
- Guile

And it was expected this kind of price for him. At least I thought $2M would be able to get him for 1 year.

And it was expected this kind of price for him. At least I thought $2M would be able to get him for 1 year.
- Barnaby36

Flexibility to make these kinds of moves when the opportunity presents itself is exactly why you don’t sign bottom pairing defensemen/bottom 6 forwards to $3 mil + contracts or trade for players on said contracts. Using up cap never technically matters until it prevents you from making good moves. Not saying Shattenkirk would have definitely considered us but shutting the door on these kinds of opportunities in advance is bad.

As a recently bought out but with still top 4 potential and being RH, I figured he'd get 2 mill+....this has the potential to be a real steal for the Bolts.

GMJR is being realistic that no FAs ever come to “Pittsburgh” at a “Discount”, so no need to have extra cap laying around for that purpose

Not a slight on the city, but somebody name the last one to do so?

And it’s not like the team hasn’t had the following status

A) Up and Coming
B) Cup Contender
C) Defending Champs (x3)
B) Superstar Core

etc,etc,etc

PS Wilson, just because they don’t have the “direction” you advocate for (a bunch of 5’7 high Corsi Dave Archibalds and Brian Gibbons) doesn’t mean there isn’t a direction this team is taking

Good blog, completely agree. Whether they go bridge or longer-term on Pettersson I think they'll get good value, but the priority needs to be on the next couple years.

Shatts is around half the price of JJ...

GMJR is being realistic that no FAs ever come to “Pittsburgh” at a “Discount”, so no need to have extra cap laying around for that purpose

Not a slight on the city, but somebody name the last one to do so?

And it’s not like the team hasn’t had the following status

A) Up and Coming
B) Cup Contender
C) Defending Champs (x3)
B) Superstar Core

etc,etc,etc

PS Wilson, just because they don’t have the “direction” you advocate for (a bunch of 5’7 high Corsi Dave Archibalds and Brian Gibbons) doesn’t mean there isn’t a direction this team is taking
- RoloTahmasee

Eric Fehr? Didn't work out, but at the time it looked like a bargain. Of course, it timed well with the Sutter trade where they opened space they didn't have.

I think the reason why is because of what Vic said: we rarely have the room set aside to take advantage of the situation. You want bargains, you have to wait out the market, but GMJR is more proactive. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does take you out of moves like Shattenkirk, Dzingel, Ferlund, etc when they happen.

Good blog, completely agree. Whether they go bridge or longer-term on Pettersson I think they'll get good value, but the priority needs to be on the next couple years.
- Tojo.

I’ve been in favor of the bridge deal. Give him two years of no more than $2M, preferably a little less if they can swing it.

Shatty to the lightning for dirt cheap... yeesh
- Guile

Great fit. If Cernak takes a step back or Sergachev can't play his off-side they have competition now. Worst case, they'll maintain a puck moving presence on the third pair. Lightning look even better to me now than last year.

I’ve been in favor of the bridge deal. Give him two years of no more than $2M, preferably a little less if they can swing it.
- Rinosaur

I think giving him 1.5M this year and 2M next year for a 1.75M average would work.

I don't doubt he can and should be top 4 this year, but there's also a chance POJ over takes him and he's 3rd pair again eventually.

Great fit. If Cernak takes a step back or Sergachev can't play his off-side they have competition now. Worst case, they'll maintain a puck moving presence on the third pair. Lightning look even better to me now than last year.
- Tojo.

Aside from the fact Point is not likely to come back?

I think giving him 1.5M this year and 2M next year for a 1.75M average would work.

I don't doubt he can and should be top 4 this year, but there's also a chance POJ over takes him and he's 3rd pair again eventually.
- Tojo.

I’m not holding my breath on any prospects, but I think that deal sounds fair.

Aside from the fact Point is not likely to come back?
- Rinosaur

What the (frank) are you talking about?

Eric Fehr? Didn't work out, but at the time it looked like a bargain. Of course, it timed well with the Sutter trade where they opened space they didn't have.

I think the reason why is because of what Vic said: we rarely have the room set aside to take advantage of the situation. You want bargains, you have to wait out the market, but GMJR is more proactive. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does take you out of moves like Shattenkirk, Dzingel, Ferlund, etc when they happen.
- Tojo.

That's the point I'm making.... The "Eric Fehr's"

We sign Brandon Tanev and all people write is "We coulda had"

Donskoi, Dzingle, Ferland, etc, etc, etc

There is nothing that suggests that those players would have signed here for the same $$$. There is little evidence to suggest that Pittsburgh has been any players "1st Choice"

So when Free Agency strikes, it's a lot like the CFL draft. The team with the 1st overall pick in the CFL doesn't pick a player who is likely to be taken in the NFL draft.

You target players you have a realistic shot at, based on what you know from agents regarding players preferred destinations

Evidence suggests, that regardless of teams success, those guys don't have Pittsburgh high on their list, and the guys that do, don't seem to ever come here on a discount, unless they are all used up like Eric Fehr

So, Paul Martin, Zybnek Michalek, Petr Sykora, Brandon Tanev, Ruslan Fedotenko, Miroslav Satan it is

What the (frank) are you talking about?
- Feds91Stammer

How exactly are they keeping him? Vas’s raise next year + Point likely getting $8M+?

How exactly are they keeping him? Vas’s raise next year + Point likely getting $8M+?
- Rinosaur

They move other players and promote guys that are on ELCs.

How exactly are they keeping him? Vas’s raise next year + Point likely getting $8M+?
- Rinosaur

Next year is Next Year's problem

This year they have room

Next year they can move any one of their other good players and likely get a high pick back like they just did with JT Miller

That's the point I'm making.... The "Eric Fehr's"

We sign Brandon Tanev and all people write is "We coulda had"

Donskoi, Dzingle, Ferland, etc, etc, etc

There is nothing that suggests that those players would have signed here for the same $$$. There is little evidence to suggest that Pittsburgh has been any players "1st Choice"

So when Free Agency strikes, it's a lot like the CFL draft. The team with the 1st overall pick in the CFL doesn't pick a player who is likely to be taken in the NFL draft.

You target players you have a realistic shot at, based on what you know from agents regarding players preferred destinations

Evidence suggests, that regardless of teams success, those guys don't have Pittsburgh high on their list, and the guys that do, don't seem to ever come here on a discount, unless they are all used up like Eric Fehr

So, Paul Martin, Zybnek Michalek, Brandon Tanev, Ruslan Fedotenko, Miroslav Satan it is
- RoloTahmasee

I don’t even care about the “could have had” free agents. I assumed we weren’t gonna get anyone. We have to trade Rust to fit Pettersson because of that unnecessary signing and that’s already a negative impact enough without factoring in the opportunity cost of not even being able to negotiate with bargain buy candidates like Shattenkirk (who we still probably wouldn’t have been able to fit even without Tanev). When I talk about not being able to even throw our hat in the ring for these kinds of acquisition, I’m talking about the trend of signing and acquiring limited players to/with large contracts as a whole. It’s not just Tanev. It’s the combination of Johnson, Gudbranson, and Tanev’s cap hits and arguably Hornqvist and Bjugstad although Hornqvist is contingent on how quickly you think he’ll decline and I happen to think Bjugstad is right around fair value. That’s a sizable percentage of our roster that are on contracts that provide negative to average value.

I don’t even care about the “could have had” free agents. I assumed we weren’t gonna get anyone. We have to trade Rust to fit Pettersson because of that unnecessary signing and that’s already a negative impact enough without factoring in the opportunity cost of not even being able to negotiate with bargain buy candidates like Shattenkirk (who we still probably wouldn’t have been able to fit even without Tanev). When I talk about not being able to even throw our hat in the ring for these kinds of acquisition, I’m talking about the trend of signing and acquiring limited players to/with large contracts as a whole. It’s not just Tanev. It’s the combination of Johnson, Gudbranson, and Tanev’s cap hits and arguably Hornqvist and Bjugstad although Hornqvist is contingent on how quickly you think he’ll decline and I happen to think Bjugstad is right around fair value. That’s a sizable percentage of our roster that are on contracts that provide negative to average value.
- Victoro311

There is the possibility that the Organization values Brandon Tanev more than they do Bryan Rust

So, if the plan was to sign Tanev, and move out Rust for a pick, then that's good asset management

And if you are lamenting moving Bryan Rust because "He's Good" then imagine if we move JJ instead and end up with 2 versions of Bryan Rust - Maybe that's what the Penguins are planning

GMJR has a bad FA signing - Johnson (See above comment about Pittsburgh's options being limited with Free Agents)

Bad Resigning - Hornqvist (Probably 500k overpay and a year too long.... Worry about year 5 in year 5 - Stanley Cup tax paid on this contract)

Trades, The good far outweigh the bad. Win some/Lose some

I would have lets Hags walk rather than trade for Pearson then flip for Guds. But GMJR was in the business of adding players for a run last season, not aforementioned capspace for this offseason - and then dealing with a limited list of FA's willing to come here

The value we still have on Crosby, Letang, Murray, Dumo far far outweigh the negative value we have on guys like Hornqvist and Guds

Every team in the league, EVERY TEAM has at least 1 bad contract like JJ, and his 3.25 is on the extremely low end of Bad Contracts in terms of cost