HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Thoughts on Andrei Vasilevskiy's monster extension with the Lightning?

way too much..

Vasi has earned the right to be one of the highest paid goalies in the league

Just because there's less expensive goalies who will sometimes put up better stats than him doesn't mean he hasn't earned it

The contradicting of Tanner continues, sigh.

Dislike the deal.

This most recent season was Vasilevskiy's only season so far where he posted truly outstanding numbers relative to league average. Over the first 150ish games of his career his numbers are solidly above average, maybe borderline great in 2017-18, but not Vezina-caliber until 2018-19.

I would certainly rank him as definitely one of the 10 best goalies in the NHL right now and probably top 5, but I'm not at all convinced that he is on a HOF track.

It's also important to point out that, as a group, goalies do not improve with age (see https://hockey-graphs.com...-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/) and, in fact, with some exceptions certainly (because goaltending performance is volatile) most HOF-caliber goalies who have long NHL careers already played a good chunk of their best statistical seasons relative to league average by age 25 or 26.

Now if Vasilevskiy plays like he did in 2018-19 for most of the next 8 years, then this is a great deal. Then again, if he plays that well for that length of time he'll end up as one of the 10-15 best goaltenders ever to play the game. How willing are you to make that kind of a projection based on one Vezina-caliber season, facing fewer than 1,600 shots, at age 24?

It's a very aggressive bet. It could pan out. I'm not sure it's especially likely though.

I wonder what Tanner would say if the Lightning GM was Julia BriseBois instead of Julien?

Better than the Bob contract. Vas doesn't care about the Gibson one, once his agent saw what Bob got, 5 years older...what do you expect is gonna happen?

Exactly, the Gibson contract is irrelevant. I'm sure the Lightning tried to bring that up as a comparable and Vasi's agent simply said...well Gibson and his agent were idiots to sign that. This isn't our problem. We feel Vasi deserves to be the highest paid goalie in the league, especially since you are getting him throughout his prime years. Price is at $10.5M. Bob just signed for $10M. We'll take a discount at $9.5M. The end.

I'm sure teams are also trying to bring up Labanc's ridiculous $1M contract. And agents laugh saying that kid has the worst agent in the world.

For a young goalie who is putting up A-tier numbers and is now entering his prime, the cap hit seems fair.

If I was starting a club from scratch today, Vaz would be one of two or three netminders I would choose from ideally.

I know that goalies are weirdos in general, and you never know if they’ll collapse out of nowhere, but I just don’t think Vaz is one of those characters.

If I’m a Lightning fan, I’d be happy that my franchise goalie is locked down for the future. My team could negotiate other contracts knowing that they won’t have to deal with a new large payday for a long time. It’s already dog-eared. Goaltender is a paramount position, and it’s a huge relief to have that settled.

it's risky

goalies can swing from vezina calibre to horrible on a yearly basis (see rinne, fleury, schneider, bishop, miller, so many more). Even price and lundqvist have had some pretty bad seasons.

I don't think 1 vezina calibre season is enough to justify this long-term gamble

Probably fair market value, as long as he can somewhat maintain his numbers its a good deal. He's young enough that he should be able to.

The Kucherov comparison is misleading, and is an example of selectively using stats to fit a point of view. Comparing goalies GP with forwards GP in the regular season isnt a fair gauge of value, for obvious reasons.

Cannot predict what the future will bring. But happy that my team has not spent 12 % of cap on a goalie. AV appears to be a great goalie, but from a team asset allocation this $ is an overpay, and history shows the backend might not be pretty.

it's risky

goalies can swing from vezina calibre to horrible on a yearly basis (see rinne, fleury, schneider, bishop, miller, so many more). Even price and lundqvist have had some pretty bad seasons.

I don't think 1 vezina calibre season is enough to justify this long-term gamble
- BestRapperAlive

Yeah, but if the majority of the goalies you mentioned got contracts for that cap hit when they were entering their prime, they would have been good deals. Rinne, MAF, Miller, Price, and Lundqvist had exceptional careers even with a dud throw in on occasion.

It’s a risk, but it’s one you gotta take if you want a top flight goalie. If you only wanna offer deals for shorter terms, they’ll walk. Then you’re scrambling every few years for the next guy hoping he’s as good as the last one.

I mean, I get it. God knows I’ve seen bad goaltending over the years. Bryzgalov burned us badly. But Vaz is no Bryz, outside of perhaps also being scared of bears in the woods. I dunno. Haven’t asked him.

The term is poop. I’m firmly against paying goalies more than five years. Money is high but earned I guess. Give it a C.

Yeah, but if the majority of the goalies you mentioned got contracts for that cap hit when they were entering their prime, they would have been good deals. Rinne, MAF, Miller, Price, and Lundqvist had exceptional careers even with a dud throw in on occasion.

It’s a risk, but it’s one you gotta take if you want a top flight goalie. If you only wanna offer deals for shorter terms, they’ll walk. Then you’re scrambling every few years for the next guy hoping he’s as good as the last one.

I mean, I get it. God knows I’ve seen bad goaltending over the years. Bryzgalov burned us badly. But Vaz is no Bryz, outside of perhaps also being scared of bears in the woods. I dunno. Haven’t asked him.
- Hesh_

It's true. As the best team in the league, you need to retain your young vezina goalie. You don't want to be a Cup contender and fall short because your goalie is michael leighton.

But it is still a big risk. Even when those star goalies had vezina seasons, they didn't win Cups (except MAF). On the other hand, niemi, crawford, murray, and binnington have all won on entry level deals.
I think MAF and Quick are the only high paid goalies to win a Cup in the past decade.

Definitely the best fantasy goalie in NHL. Hasn’t proven it yet in playoffs. Too much $$$. Too many years

Binnington

Tanner, remember when Tampa played Manon Rheaume in a pre-season game. Something, something, about a barrel right?

it's risky

goalies can swing from vezina calibre to horrible on a yearly basis (see rinne, fleury, schneider, bishop, miller, so many more). Even price and lundqvist have had some pretty bad seasons.

I don't think 1 vezina calibre season is enough to justify this long-term gamble
- BestRapperAlive

I’d say Vasy has been the starter for 2.5 seasons, 2 of those he was a Vezina finalist and won one of two. I’d say 8 years is long and the last 2 may be wasted but he’s very good and locked up. I like it.

I’d say Vasy has been the starter for 2.5 seasons, 2 of those he was a Vezina finalist and won one of two. I’d say 8 years is long and the last 2 may be wasted but he’s very good and locked up. I like it.
- Kucherovski

The long term contracts are generally detrimental to the club; but that's business in the NHL. I'd certainly rather bet 8 years on Vasy then 7 on Bobsky.

I’m OK with the fact that he may be worth that much.

My question is why do the Lightening feel they need an elite type goaltender?

They have a good D and their O can surely overpower most teams on any given night...so why mess that up with a very highly paid goalie who might not maintain his current level of play.

James!!! You're still allowed in here mate?

What good news

James!!! You're still allowed in here mate?

What good news
- rrentz

Glorious news.

If they signed him to a 3-5 year deal, and he then had a chance at being a UFA in his prime, do you REALLY think Tampa Bay would get him for less than 10-12 million a season just on contract inflation alone, not taking into consideration he might actually get BETTER (or worse).

Its a good deal, what makes it look bad, is all the poopty contracts with NMC's given to average players.

I’m OK with the fact that he may be worth that much.

My question is why do the Lightening feel they need an elite type goaltender?

They have a good D and their O can surely overpower most teams on any given night...so why mess that up with a very highly paid goalie who might not maintain his current level of play.
- nikel

The Lightning won a lot of games last year but gave up the 11th most shots per game. They have Hedman and MacD back on D but otherwise not a very good D team at all. Kucheov, Stammer, Point are also not shutdown forwards so they need an elite goalie.