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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: UFA breakdowns: The "I don't get it" version
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PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

Jul 3 @ 12:39 PM ET
There was no possible way that Rutherford was going to win the Kessel trade. However, if you accept the assumption that, for whatever reason (and I am not going to speculate as to why), he "had to trade him no matter what, at any cost" then the return was I think the best he could have got.

Galchenyuk is in a contract year so it is basically "now are never" for him and he will be playing with the best offensive team in his career. I expect him to be a one year rental player and after that he will either price himself out of here (hopefully) or just not resigned. Galchenyuk is not intended to replace Kessel, on equal terms at least. Additionally, Rutherford got a top tier defensive prospect.

I like Tanev, although the term of his deal is a bit long. However, I think Rutherford like all GM's operate under the assumption that the cap will go up and if it does, this deal isn't quite so bad.

Speaking of the cap and Florida's Bobrovsky signing, not to mention many of the others, I have to wonder if the GM's are going to push the owners and the NHL to opt-out of the current CBA on 9/1/2019. If they do, they may pressure the NHLPA to allow a modification of the CBA to allow for some non-cap impacting buyouts (and keep the CBA otherwise unchanged). The GM's will then "keep these in their pockets" to allow themselves to fix their worst mistakes.

Considering the insanity/stupidity of many of the most recent contracts this may be the only means by which the GM's can save themselves. In the Pens case, this may be the best way out of the JJ contract (Rutherford's worst).
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 12:41 PM ET
I'll say it.

Bryan Rust > Alex Galchenyuk
Doogs
Season Ticket Holder
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh , PA
Joined: 09.16.2005

Jul 3 @ 12:48 PM ET
I don’t get how the entire hockey world see’s the issue. It is talked about EVERYWHERE. There is NO secret to the fact that the JJ contract is bad.

How is GMJR “likes him” enough of an answer? Beyond he is in-charge. Maybe Mario needs to send an message. Some other way that text because we al ready figured out GMJR can’t do that.
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:50 PM ET
Everybody as been concerned with Hornqvist's second half drop off and rightly so. I don't understand why everyone takes it for granted that Phil, who had 2 80+ point seasons before his 30s is automatically going to do it again. He also slowed down the second half, both production wise (was mid-60s) and just speed. He's better than Galchenyuk and fits the PP better, but I saw him coming in under 70 points next year
- Tojo.

*All situations, not just 5v5*
Hornqvist 1st half: 32 Games - 14 goals, 10 assists, 93 shots, 52 high danger chances created

2nd half: 37 Games - 4 goals, 9 assists, 104 shots, 55 hdch's.

His second half slump is so hard to understand because his game didn't change. He was just as effective at getting shots on goal, on getting scoring chances, on getting high danger scoring chances. This wasn't a guy who suddenly was broken and could generate. He literally just could buy a break. I really feel like when he comes back next season he will be perfectly back to normal and have a 25 goal 45 point season.
JLT168
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PGH, PA
Joined: 07.09.2012

Jul 3 @ 12:53 PM ET
I'll say it.

Bryan Rust > Alex Galchenyuk

- j.boyd919


I think galchenyuk still has a higher ceiling and potential to grow where as rust has probably already reached it.

He also has played on a not very good Montreal team and Arizona, not a terrible team by any means, but not an offensive hotbed either. I think/hope he surpasses his season high numbers with us this year. He should want to earn that big contract that isn't another bridge deal, so we shall see.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 3 @ 12:56 PM ET
I'll say it.

Bryan Rust > Alex Galchenyuk

- j.boyd919


In certain aspects of their games, sure. Rust definitely a more well-rounded player.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 1:04 PM ET
I think galchenyuk still has a higher ceiling and potential to grow where as rust has probably already reached it.

He also has played on a not very good Montreal team and Arizona, not a terrible team by any means, but not an offensive hotbed either. I think/hope he surpasses his season high numbers with us this year. He should want to earn that big contract that isn't another bridge deal, so we shall see.

- JLT168


People think that players coming to the pens are going to get this boost in their numbers when history shows that it’s a rarity.

https://www.pensburgh.com...l-trade-nhl-stats-arizona
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 1:07 PM ET
In certain aspects of their games, sure. Rust definitely a more well-rounded player.
- Rinosaur


I think overall productivity in terms of value to what they bring to the Penguins, Rust is better.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 3 @ 1:14 PM ET
People think that players coming to the pens are going to get this boost in their numbers when history shows that it’s a rarity.

https://www.pensburgh.com...l-trade-nhl-stats-arizona

- j.boyd919


I posted this article the other day. It was a good read.

I think what gets lost in terms of wingers for Sid and Geno is not so much them elevating their play, but rather what type of wingers are needed to facilitate Sid and Geno’s game.

Players who help make time and space for them to operate and have the ability to take advantage of the scoring opportunities given to them rather than just using Sid and Geno to turn them into scoring machines.
RoloTahmasee
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 3 @ 1:19 PM ET
I don’t get how the entire hockey world see’s the issue. It is talked about EVERYWHERE. There is NO secret to the fact that the JJ contract is bad.

How is GMJR “likes him” enough of an answer? Beyond he is in-charge. Maybe Mario needs to send an message. Some other way that text because we al ready figured out GMJR can’t do that.

- Doogs


What do you expect a guy like GMJR to say about JJ?

"Ya, He sucks, I hate that guy"

"Ya, Thats a crappy contract, I wish I didn't sign him"

"He can't play anymore, He's the worst"

a) Thats not going to make it any easier to trade him

b) That's not going to do anything for JJ in terms of confidence or possibly improving his play

c) That's not going to benefit the locker room, or impress any other players thinking of signing in Pittsburgh when the GM will throw you under the bus

If the Penguins truly have a "No Buyout Policy" and that's coming from ownership, the GMJR is doing what he has to do. Keep pumping tires and looking for the best deal. The 2.25 million in cap savings (That he can get by just sending JJ to the AHL) is possibly not worth the asking price of 1sts or prospects or whatever the current cost is to move that deal. He can sit on it for now, tell people whatever they want to hear and look for another Scuderi/Daley deal if it materializes
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:28 PM ET
What do you expect a guy like GMJR to say about JJ?

"Ya, He sucks, I hate that guy"

"Ya, Thats a crappy contract, I wish I didn't sign him"

"He can't play anymore, He's the worst"

a) Thats not going to make it any easier to trade him

b) That's not going to do anything for JJ in terms of confidence or possibly improving his play

c) That's not going to benefit the locker room, or impress any other players thinking of signing in Pittsburgh when the GM will throw you under the bus

If the Penguins truly have a "No Buyout Policy" and that's coming from ownership, the GMJR is doing what he has to do. Keep pumping tires and looking for the best deal. The 2.25 million in cap savings (That he can get by just sending JJ to the AHL) is possibly not worth the asking price of 1sts or prospects or whatever the current cost is to move that deal. He can sit on it for now, tell people whatever they want to hear and look for another Scuderi/Daley deal if it materializes

- RoloTahmasee



It is only 1.05 milion in cap savings if they send JJ down to WBS.
RoloTahmasee
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 3 @ 1:30 PM ET
It is only 1.05 milion in cap savings if they send JJ down to WBS.
- burgh4life87


I meant trading him with assets vs just sending him down to the AHL

It's only 2.25 million better by giving away assets (1sts/prospects) vs just sending him down and eating the 2.25
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:31 PM ET
People think that players coming to the pens are going to get this boost in their numbers when history shows that it’s a rarity.

https://www.pensburgh.com...l-trade-nhl-stats-arizona

- j.boyd919

I haven't read it yet, but I'd imagine it's because people underestimate how skill players suffer when they don't get PP time even if their ES stats get a boost. Which will be a problem for Galchenyuk. And is why Guentzel is such a stud.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:34 PM ET
*All situations, not just 5v5*
Hornqvist 1st half: 32 Games - 14 goals, 10 assists, 93 shots, 52 high danger chances created

2nd half: 37 Games - 4 goals, 9 assists, 104 shots, 55 hdch's.

His second half slump is so hard to understand because his game didn't change. He was just as effective at getting shots on goal, on getting scoring chances, on getting high danger scoring chances. This wasn't a guy who suddenly was broken and could generate. He literally just could buy a break. I really feel like when he comes back next season he will be perfectly back to normal and have a 25 goal 45 point season.

- burgh4life87

I hope Hornqvist does bounce back and I don't think it's impossible, but 31-32 seems like a number that aging will take an effect somewhere. His relatives, while still good, took a significant step back.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:39 PM ET
I'll say it.

Bryan Rust > Alex Galchenyuk

- j.boyd919

I’m incredibly here for this take, my dude.
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:45 PM ET
I meant trading him with assets vs just sending him down to the AHL

It's only 2.25 million better by giving away assets (1sts/prospects) vs just sending him down and eating the 2.25

- RoloTahmasee


Ah ok. I see know. I also screwed up my math so my number isn't even correct. Burying JJ would cost the Penguins 2.175m against the cap this season. Those savings are small, but definitely worth it if it meant the other option was giving up a 1st round pick to move him.
joecool2931
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rillton, PA
Joined: 09.03.2015

Jul 3 @ 1:52 PM ET
I’m incredibly here for this take, my dude.
- Victoro311


Its really not even a "take". Gally is slightly more skilled. Rust is better at every other facet of the game. But I am excited to see what Gally can do here.

EDIT : more than slightly, but
burgh4life87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.22.2014

Jul 3 @ 1:59 PM ET
I hope Hornqvist does bounce back and I don't think it's impossible, but 31-32 seems like a number that aging will take an effect somewhere. His relatives, while still good, took a significant step back.
- Tojo.


5v5
First Half - CF% 50.3, FF% 51.1, SF% 52.3, SCF% 54.6, HDCF% 56.2, SH% 8.97
Second - CF%51.0, FF% 51.6, SF% 50.4, SCF% 54.5, HDCF% 60.0, SH% 6.5

Shots for dropped slighty, but high dangers chances went up, shooting percentage dropped. He had a strong finish but was having real trouble finding the back of the net. I would be significantly more worried about his game if he couldn't generate chances and shots, but he can. I'm not worried.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:08 PM ET
I’m incredibly here for this take, my dude.
- Victoro311


The price at which Rust comes in, his ability to play up and down the lineup and still provide nearly 40 points, as well as being more responsible defensively. He may not have the hands, if he did he’d be a 60 point player, but regardless of the no hands he’s relentless on the forecheck and is very good at driving play in the direction opposite of his own net.

Galch is a 45-55 point player with PP time and he shouldn’t be on the PP1 so I would guess his overall point totals are going to dip. I don’t expect his ES numbers to go up significantly. Given that his defensive impact is as poor as Phil’s at ES, I value Rust on the Pens more than Galch. Hopefully he proves me wrong and I’ll eat crow if he does but I don’t think it’s likely. He is who he is. He’s 25. I don’t expect much more.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 3 @ 2:20 PM ET
The price at which Rust comes in, his ability to play up and down the lineup and still provide nearly 40 points, as well as being more responsible defensively. He may not have the hands, if he did he’d be a 60 point player, but regardless of the no hands he’s relentless on the forecheck and is very good at driving play in the direction opposite of his own net.

Galch is a 45-55 point player with PP time and he shouldn’t be on the PP1 so I would guess his overall point totals are going to dip. I don’t expect his ES numbers to go up significantly. Given that his defensive impact is as poor as Phil’s at ES, I value Rust on the Pens more than Galch. Hopefully he proves me wrong and I’ll eat crow if he does but I don’t think it’s likely. He is who he is. He’s 25. I don’t expect much more.

- j.boyd919


Sullivan is going to HATE Galch.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:23 PM ET
Tojo: here’s more info on players who aren’t offer sheet eligible due to college years

https://twitter.com/capfr.../1146469748982632448?s=21
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:25 PM ET
Sullivan is going to HATE Galch.
- Rinosaur


He’s not a bad player by any means.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:27 PM ET
People think that players coming to the pens are going to get this boost in their numbers when history shows that it’s a rarity.

https://www.pensburgh.com...l-trade-nhl-stats-arizona

- j.boyd919

I read a similar article. It did not take into account the TOI or QoT difference between AZ and Pitt nor did they correlate it to other players who came to Pitt

Hornqvist and Kunitz were playing with good players before they got here, Chucky was not.

It’s no different than saying that Kessel’s point totals will likely drop when he gets to AZ because his TOI and QoT is likely going to go down. It’s just a safe assumption
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 2:33 PM ET
I read a similar article. It did not take into account the TOI or QoT difference between AZ and Pitt nor did they correlate it to other players who came to Pitt

Hornqvist and Kunitz were playing with good players before they got here, Chucky was not.

It’s no different than saying that Kessel’s point totals will likely drop when he gets to AZ because his TOI and QoT is likely going to go down. It’s just a safe assumption

- WSCTeton17


I don’t really know if Kessel’s point totals are going to drop that much. I can see him hovering around 75-80 still. He produced in Toronto on a poop team.
WSCTeton17
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jul 3 @ 2:34 PM ET
Per Dobber sports frozen tools: Rust put up 15 points playing with Sid and Jake last year and didn’t put up more than 2 points playing with any other line combination at ES
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