Peter Tessier: Qualified RFAs and the short-term future Looking at the RFA fallout and what is in the short-term future.

It’s still so weird to me that Ultimate is so fixated on how Connor is an intelligent, upward trending player while Laine is the opposite... in spite of the he fact that both players took a step back last season, Laine has his hit waaay higher highs while being a year and a bit younger, and Connor regularly demonstrates a total lack of hockey IQ in the neutral and defensive zones.

Today @ 1:21 PM ET
It’s still so weird to me that Ultimate is so fixated on how Connor is an intelligent, upward trending player while Laine is the opposite... in spite of the he fact that both players took a step back last season, Laine has his hit waaay higher highs while being a year and a bit younger, and Connor regularly demonstrates a total lack of hockey IQ in the neutral and defensive zones.

It is weird. I see it as a classic case of anecdote being considered equal to data resulting in fixation on proving the point by using more anecdote. This site calls it the 'texas sharpshooter'

https://yourlogicalfallac...om/the-texas-sharpshooter

actually that site is full of descriptions of the flaws in reasoning each of us has been guilty of most of the time. But the reading is more entertaining... carry on.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/

If Chevy can sign both of them for 7/8 years it would be great for the Jets and both players. The Jets get long term cap certainty and the players will still be young enough to get another big payday as a UFA, at the end of their contracts .

Great website 2.0. I love it. Now onto Laine vs. Connor

2017-18 stats:

Laine: 82gp 44g 26a 70points .875ppg

Connor: 76gp 31g 26a 57points .75ppg

2018-19 stats:

Laine: 82gp 30g 20a 50 points .609ppg

Connor: 82gp 34g 32a 66points .804ppg

Proof is in the pudding Rexy!

I do pray that laine and conner could sign for around the ehlers and schief cap hit but I don't see that as a reality. The nhl salaries are changing on a yearly basis, teams are over paying to hold onto their young stars.
Connor doesn't need to bridge a deal, I think if we signed him 8 years at 7.5 we would get a steal of a deal.
Laine could use a bridge, if he wants a 8 year high dollar contract, Peter nailed it, he's got to work on his game and come back to prove it. Sign him at 2 years and 5 per, good deal, he will get 10 plus if he gets back to a 40 goals a year scorer. Of course, I don't see a bridge as an option, his agent will likely ask for his full value before he's proved it.
Either way, Chevy has a big off season ahead of him. He's already had to make some huge moves and let some RFA's walk. Honestly don't know if he will actually sign any of our pending ufa's either.... this season could look much different.

Great website 2.0. I love it. Now onto Laine vs. Connor

2017-18 stats:

Laine: 82gp 44g 26a 70points .875ppg

Connor: 76gp 31g 26a 57points .75ppg

2018-19 stats:

Laine: 82gp 30g 20a 50 points .609ppg

Connor: 82gp 34g 32a 66points .804ppg

Proof is in the pudding Rexy!
- TheUltimateJet

Counting stats and points-per-game. I love it.
This is the precise method used to overpay almost every free agent bust ever.

It is weird. I see it as a classic case of anecdote being considered equal to data resulting in fixation on proving the point by using more anecdote. This site calls it the 'texas sharpshooter'

https://yourlogicalfallac...om/the-texas-sharpshooter
- 2.0

Don’t get me wrong, I love both players, but they literally the same weaknesses.

Laine has the shooting advantage, as well as the power forward potential.

Connor has skating, and creativity.

Playmaking, defence, and possession are all a wash. Only one of those attributes is on the good side for either, and we know which one that is.

Laine has had the higher highs, with lesser linemates than Connor, and therefore gets the nod. Especially with the age advantage.

Connor is an upward trending player who would certainly look like a high-scoring winger for years to come. He gets to play with Scheifele and Wheeler because he busts his butt and digs the puck out. Defensively sound enough to play on PK, while skilled and smart enough to play on power play. Good chance he leads the Jets in pts in future years.

Laine just has no - nil - desire seemingly to play with any desperation. When on the top line, it's "one and done" as he has no desire to battle for the puck, or at least seldom shows it. Can put the puck in the net if it finds his stick. Was a non-factor during the regular season last year from Dec. 1 till season's end. With his shot, has 50-goal potential, but will he reach it? Can you teach desire to battle?

Laine has a better shot, but Connor is a better "hockey player." Who do you want?

The Jets should sign both of them for 7/8 years. The Jets get cap certainty and the players will be UFA while they are young enough to get another big payday. RFA on most teams are getting way too much money before their teams have done anything.

Connor is an upward trending player who would certainly look like a high-scoring winger for years to come. He gets to play with Scheifele and Wheeler because he busts his butt and digs the puck out. Defensively sound enough to play on PK, while skilled and smart enough to play on power play. Good chance he leads the Jets in pts in future years.

Laine just has no - nil - desire seemingly to play with any desperation. When on the top line, it's "one and done" as he has no desire to battle for the puck, or at least seldom shows it. Can put the puck in the net if it finds his stick. Was a non-factor during the regular season last year from Dec. 1 till season's end. With his shot, has 50-goal potential, but will he reach it? Can you teach desire to battle?

Laine has a better shot, but Connor is a better "hockey player." Who do you want?
- grahamzky

Literally every aspect of this was incorrect

Don’t get me wrong, I love both players, but they literally the same weaknesses.

Laine has the shooting advantage, as well as the power forward potential.

Connor has skating, and creativity.

Playmaking, defence, and possession are all a wash. Only one of those attributes is on the good side for either, and we know which one that is.

Laine has had the higher highs, with lesser linemates than Connor, and therefore gets the nod. Especially with the age advantage.
- Rexypoo

Rexypoo last blog you commented on how Little and Ehlers were shoot first players. If Laine is such a great playmaker, his assist totals would be increasing.

As far as possession goes:

2017-18

Laine 50.2 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 57.6%
Connor 49.6 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 54.8%

Laine had a .6 higher Corsi despite starting in the Offensive Zone 2.8% more than Connor.

2018-19

Laine 46.2 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 60%
Connor 49 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 60.7%

Connor had a 2.8 higher Corsi despite starting in offensive zone .7% more than Laine.

I don't know Rexypoo, it appears that possession and play making are also skewed towards Connor. And, I only used even strength numbers because both are on the power play.

Rexypoo last blog you commented on how Little and Ehlers were shoot first players. If Laine is such a great playmaker, his assist totals would be increasing.

As far as possession goes:

2017-18

Laine 50.2 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 57.6%
Connor 49.6 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 54.8%

Laine had a .6 higher Corsi despite starting in the Offensive Zone 2.8% more than Connor.

2018-19

Laine 46.2 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 60%
Connor 49 Even Strength Corsi with him starting in the offensive zone 60.7%

Connor had a 2.8 higher Corsi despite starting in offensive zone .7% more than Laine.

I don't know Rexypoo, it appears that possession and play making are also skewed towards Connor. And, I only used even strength numbers because both are on the power play.
- TheUltimateJet

First things first: Connor and Laine are not playmakers. They are snipers. Wheeler and Perreault are playmakers. Connor had more assists because he is A: with Scheifele 24/7, and B: the bumper for Wheeler on the power play. Neither player is better than the other at passing, but one is feeding Mark Scheifele at 5v5, and the other is feeding Bryan Little. If this were 2014 Little, I’d blame Laine. But current Little is a declining 3C whom offers nothing in terms of possession or defence.

Once again, in both seasons Connor had Scheifele and Wheeler. Laine had Little and Ehlers. The difference here is the entire team took a step back this season, and combined with another year of Little’s decline, it was worse for Laine. Add in the extra defensive coverage teams now know they can throw at Laine on his 2nd line island, and the entirely too common massacring of line 1, and you’ve got a smothered Patty.

Also, zone starts don’t make a difference when you’re looking at puck possession. Unless you’re suggesting the Jets centermen suddenly try to win draws harder in the offensive zone? The difference between a 45% faceoff team and a 55% faceoff team is about 3-6 points in the standings

First things first: Connor and Laine are not playmakers. They are snipers. Wheeler and Perreault are playmakers. Connor had more assists because he is A: with Scheifele 24/7, and B: the bumper for Wheeler on the power play. Neither player is better than the other at passing, but one is feeding Mark Scheifele at 5v5, and the other is feeding Bryan Little. If this were 2014 Little, I’d blame Laine. But current Little is a declining 3C whom offers nothing in terms of possession or defence.

Once again, in both seasons Connor had Scheifele and Wheeler. Laine had Little and Ehlers. The difference here is the entire team took a step back this season, and combined with another year of Little’s decline, it was worse for Laine. Add in the extra defensive coverage teams now know they can throw at Laine on his 2nd line island, and the entirely too common massacring of line 1, and you’ve got a smothered Patty.

Also, zone starts don’t make a difference when you’re looking at puck possession. Unless you’re suggesting the Jets centermen suddenly try to win draws harder in the offensive zone? The difference between a 45% faceoff team and a 55% faceoff team is about 3-6 points in the standings
- Rexypoo

Bryan Little - 52.5% face off winning percentage
Mark Scheifele - 46.3% face off winning percentage

Seems like Laine had a better Centerman at winning face offs.

Bryan Little - 52.5% face off winning percentage
Mark Scheifele - 46.3% face off winning percentage

Seems like Laine had a better Centerman at winning face offs.
- TheUltimateJet

That difference is worth a goal or two across the season. For the entire line.

First things first: Connor and Laine are not playmakers. They are snipers. Wheeler and Perreault are playmakers. Connor had more assists because he is A: with Scheifele 24/7, and B: the bumper for Wheeler on the power play. Neither player is better than the other at passing, but one is feeding Mark Scheifele at 5v5, and the other is feeding Bryan Little. If this were 2014 Little, I’d blame Laine. But current Little is a declining 3C whom offers nothing in terms of possession or defence.

Once again, in both seasons Connor had Scheifele and Wheeler. Laine had Little and Ehlers. The difference here is the entire team took a step back this season, and combined with another year of Little’s decline, it was worse for Laine. Add in the extra defensive coverage teams now know they can throw at Laine on his 2nd line island, and the entirely too common massacring of line 1, and you’ve got a smothered Patty.

Also, zone starts don’t make a difference when you’re looking at puck possession. Unless you’re suggesting the Jets centermen suddenly try to win draws harder in the offensive zone? The difference between a 45% faceoff team and a 55% faceoff team is about 3-6 points in the standings
- Rexypoo

Do you ever think it might be Connor or Ehlers with Scheif and Wheeler - because that's what the top two want? They want someone that can dig out the puck or skate.

Patrick is mostly smothered, IMO, because Patrick is usually stationary.

Patrick has had his best time with Stastny - h-m-m - two years at about $5.5? Not sure the Jets could work it, but Vegas wants to dump salary.

Maybe a two year contract - and then?

Do you ever think it might be Connor or Ehlers with Scheif and Wheeler - because that's what the top two want? They want someone that can dig out the puck or skate.

Patrick is mostly smothered, IMO, because Patrick is usually stationary.

Patrick has had his best time with Stastny - h-m-m - two years at about $5.5? Not sure the Jets could work it, but Vegas wants to dump salary.

Maybe a two year contract - and then?
- grahamzky

Scheifele and Wheeler being stapled together is honestly the biggest problem our forward group has. Every single player in the lineup would benefit from them being split up

Scheifele and Wheeler being stapled together is honestly the biggest problem our forward group has. Every single player in the lineup would benefit from them being split up
- Rexypoo

Yea, sometimes I wonder why they don't shift either Scheif or Wheeler to 2nd line centre - worked well when they did.
Right now - who?

Yea, sometimes I wonder why they don't shift either Scheif or Wheeler to 2nd line centre - worked well when they did.
Right now - who?
- grahamzky

Wheeler was massacred as a centreman. He was well below Hendricks level, and it was enough to have people legitimately concerned he was about to go age-cliff diving. Ultimately, this did show his decline starting, but it tanked his numbers hard. Hendricks fared better as a Jet.

The answer to our 2C problem is Copp, Lowry, or an outsider

Ehlers / Schiefele / Laine
Connor / Little / Wheeler

Ehlers / Schiefele / Laine
Connor / Little / Wheeler
- bennythehat

How this was never at least tried last year is probably the most baffling thing that happened all year.

Wheeler was massacred as a centreman. He was well below Hendricks level, and it was enough to have people legitimately concerned he was about to go age-cliff diving. Ultimately, this did show his decline starting, but it tanked his numbers hard. Hendricks fared better as a Jet.

The answer to our 2C problem is Copp, Lowry, or an outsider
- Rexypoo

Hendricks fared better at C than Wheeler, when Wheeler replaced Scheifele due to injury?

Laine v Connor is a bullsh_t discussion - we want both

Issue is - and I finally did the math (my bad for taking so long) - there's not enough cap ... we're not going to sign FA's to fill in for these two for any less than what we may have to pay them ... there "may" be a trade out there to get at or near performance for them but I haven't seen it yet ... and - we may not have enough cap to sign both these guys anyway without shedding even more contracts from the existing roster

Remember when Chipper said we were't gonna be a top spending team ? ... we are a top spending team

Dire straights, man, and I don't mean the band ... could the best route for Chevy be going to arbitration on both these guys and signing them to bridge deals ?

I howled when Chevy went out and signed Chibisov and Luoto ... now it's not so funny - they may be playing

So here's a question for us - how many ELC players (or cheap contract players) will Chevy want PoMo to start in order to keep Laine & Connor and adhere to cap ?

- - - 4 ? 5 ? 6 ?

Let's see: Roslo, Vesalainen, Appleton, Gustafsson, Niku, Poolman, Nogier ?

Haven't done my new lines & pairings but this is a start ...

Hendricks fared better at C than Wheeler, when Wheeler replaced Scheifele due to injury?
- grahamzky

Put simply:
Hendricks at C>Wheeler at C