Ryan Wilson: Using cap hit percentage to make sense of modern UFA deals Using cap hit percentage to make sense of current UFA deals

Go Blues.

I tell people constantly that players don't care about the dollar value, they want a percentage of the cap. I see Boston people bragging about how all their players are good value. But when their contracts were signed... they were par for the course.

One of R’s better posts. As always, it’s what do I get for my money? Are you paying for past performance which too often is the case or are you giving me what is expected given the cap hit. Phil at $6m is fine. Phil at $8m not so much. Good thing the cap continues to go up as it has. If not, there will be more GMs looking at bad long term contracts.

Skinner is actually 10.8%. his 9M kicks in when the cap goes to 83M.

Good read.

So, you're trying to say Jack Johnsons 3.25 million is closer to like the league minimum from just a few years back?

OK, great, Can you stop constantly complaining about it now?

I tell people constantly that players don't care about the dollar value, they want a percentage of the cap. I see Boston people bragging about how all their players are good value. But when their contracts were signed... they were par for the course.
- Kyleponi23

Whether we're talking % fo cap or space, it doesn't mean you still can't spend more wisely. Skinner at $9m vs. around $7M isn't going to kill the Sabres' chances of building a team, but when you look at the other options, there are ways spend similar money and have more depth.

So, you're trying to say Jack Johnsons 3.25 million is closer to like the league minimum from just a few years back?

OK, great, Can you stop constantly complaining about it now?
- RoloTahmasee

Give him a chance! It was only one season with the team. He needs time to settle in.

Talking about eliminating restricted free agency and Buffalo trying to escape mediocrity is very similar to the big city politician telling farmers what they do and don’t need.

If restricted free agency doesn’t exist, does anyone stay in Ottawa? They’re a budget team who would have to overpay to keep free agents. So many teams like the Panthers and Hurricanes and the Jets even would’ve been garbage because guys like Trouba would just bounce because they want to live close to home / by the ocean. We would see a much bigger gap in power

Taking away restricted free agency would be both dumb and dramatic. All you have to do is tweak it. Change it from 27 years old / 7 years in the league to 24 and 4 years in the league. Seems like a fair compromise to me

Talking about eliminating restricted free agency and Buffalo trying to escape mediocrity is very similar to the big city politician telling farmers what they do and don’t need.

If restricted free agency doesn’t exist, does anyone stay in Ottawa? They’re a budget team who would have to overpay to keep free agents. So many teams like the Panthers and Hurricanes and the Jets even would’ve been garbage because guys like Trouba would just bounce because they want to live close to home / by the ocean. We would see a much bigger gap in power

Taking away restricted free agency would be both dumb and dramatic. All you have to do is tweak it. Change it from 27 years old / 7 years in the league to 24 and 4 years in the league. Seems like a fair compromise to me
- WSCTeton17

Or it would force the owner to stop being a cheap skate and the city of Ottawa to go to some games if they want to keep their team.

Or it would force the owner to stop being a cheap skate and the city of Ottawa to go to some games if they want to keep their team.
- j.boyd919

And what about Carolina? Winnipeg? The Panthers? Coyotes, Oilers, etc. If you’re a young NHLer with a couple million in your bank account add those cities where you want to go and have a good time and lay down some roots? If you’re Barkov or Huberdeau why would you stay in Florida where you know the team sucks when at 22 you could bounce and go play for Toronto or Boston?

Moving directly to an extreme is small minded IMO. Remember when goal scoring was down and people wanted to make the nets bigger? To me it’s in the same realm of laughability. There are other ways of improving the league

Or it would force the owner to stop being a cheap skate and the city of Ottawa to go to some games if they want to keep their team.
- j.boyd919

I really don't know what to think about eliminating RFAs. I'd think it would start the trend of paying younger players more money than older players and the older players would probably stand up and complain. Obviously in the long-run it would even out as the younger guys playing now get older, but over the next five or six years you may have a disgruntled group of players who make a stink.

I don't necessarily think they should eliminate RFAs, but it definitely needs to be changed.

Or it would force the owner to stop being a cheap skate and the city of Ottawa to go to some games if they want to keep their team.
- j.boyd919

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Sens offer big money to Duchene, Stone and Karlsson? But wait.. they left anyways and just one year removed from the conference finals. Very curious indeed 🧐

I really don't know what to think about eliminating RFAs. I'd think it would start the trend of paying younger players more money than older players and the older players would probably stand up and complain. Obviously in the long-run it would even out as the younger guys playing now get older, but over the next five or six years you may have a disgruntled group of players who make a stink.

I don't necessarily think they should eliminate RFAs, but it definitely needs to be changed.
- Rinosaur

And with more money to younger players it’s going to likely create more “bad contracts” around the league, right? Eventually the GMs would adapt but it could create a lot of problems and certain cities would become dynasties in a hurry. I’m all for a tweak but not elimination

So, you're trying to say Jack Johnsons 3.25 million is closer to like the league minimum from just a few years back?

OK, great, Can you stop constantly complaining about it now?
- RoloTahmasee

Probably not. It isn't JJ's cap hit so much as his play.

Speaking of Duchene, Dreger is reporting that he’s AZ’s number one target Can he be lured to this smaller market? I doubt it but it would go a long way. I was just thinking that if he comes in then salary likely goes out. Hossa and a pick to Ottawa. Maybe that opens up Phil to AZ, we’ll see

I won't pretend to know the best way of going about this. I haven't really given it much though, but if I were the NHL I'd think about some kind of cap-limit for RFAs which would allow players to cash in, but at the same time teams can afford to invest in their youth and build contending teams.

For example:
If I'm correct the current limit for a player is $11M give or take? Make a limit for RFAs. I'll just give an arbitrary amount, but let's say $6M for for RFAs which can scale up as the cap goes up, but also max out the term. Teams can't offer more than say three years, or five years, etc... This way young player still have a chance to keep making more money while not feeling cheated.

I know a few select people on here will take all the numbers I'm as my actual proposal, but this is just kind of an idea of a direction to go.

And with more money to younger players it’s going to likely create more “bad contracts” around the league, right? Eventually the GMs would adapt but it could create a lot of problems and certain cities would become dynasties in a hurry. I’m all for a tweak but not elimination
- WSCTeton17

I'd be worried if they eliminated RFAs it would get like the NBA where it's almost impossible to build up a team in an undesirable location. Don't think Pittsburgh does well that way. Maybe rolling back a couple years and eliminating bridge deals but giving teams ability to sign second contracts as RFAs as I think there should stay some advantage for drafting and developing as a way to build a team.

I won't pretend to know the best way of going about this. I haven't really given it much though, but if I were the NHL I'd think about some kind of cap-limit for RFAs which would allow players to cash in, but at the same time teams can afford to invest in their youth and build contending teams.

For example:
If I'm correct the current limit for a player is $11M give or take? Make a limit for RFAs. I'll just give an arbitrary amount, but let's say $6M for for RFAs which can scale up as the cap goes up, but also max out the term. Teams can't offer more than say three years, or five years, etc... This way young player still have a chance to keep making more money while not feeling cheated.

I know a few select people on here will take all the numbers I'm as my actual proposal, but this is just kind of an idea of a direction to go.
- Rinosaur

Individual players salary is 20% of the overall cap. McDavid already has a hit of $12.5MM. This last year it was $15.9MM. This isn’t to be confused with AAV, it’s total dollars awarded including signing bonuses

They are talking about implementing caps but the problem is, what do you do for the Crosby’s and the McDavids and even the Marners of the league? They’re already stars. IMO this is a GM problem but I’m also in favor of reducing the RFA time periods

I'd be worried if they eliminated RFAs it would get like the NBA where it's almost impossible to build up a team in an undesirable location. Don't think Pittsburgh does well that way. Maybe rolling back a couple years and eliminating bridge deals but giving teams ability to sign second contracts as RFAs as I think there should stay some advantage for drafting and developing as a way to build a team.
- Tojo.

My thoughts exactly. Reduce RFA periods to 4 years in the league or 24 years old and be done with it. Give the players time to fall in love with their city, fan base, team dynamic without it eating through the bulk of their prime years

Thinking a little further though, lowering UFA would kill value deals by identifying young players early like Murray, Dumoulin, Guentzel, etc. Is that really something to fight for? Guess it really doesn't matter to me.

Thinking a little further though, lowering UFA would kill value deals by identifying young players early like Murray, Dumoulin, Guentzel, etc. Is that really something to fight for? Guess it really doesn't matter to me.
- Tojo.

I believe Murray had just turned 23 so if the age was 24 he would’ve still been RFA controlled for at least one year. He’s probably going to get paid by the Pens either way.

I think Jake had just turned 24 when he signed but at the time (before he broke out this regular season) his comps were in good company. Things certainly escalated quickly this year

Random way too early thought, but Tampa has to start working on their protect list. They already have 6 forwards and 2 defensemen with clauses. Right now Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak aren't on that list so they would have to leave several key players exposed.

Probably should deal Miller as rumored before his clause kicks in.

That Hornqvist contract is going to be a real pain for us at that point.

Ryan Wilson: Using cap hit percentage to make sense of modern UFA deals
Using cap hit percentage to make sense of current UFA deals
- Ryan_Wilson

nice blog gunner

I believe Murray had just turned 23 so if the age was 24 he would’ve still been RFA controlled for at least one year. He’s probably going to get paid by the Pens either way.

I think Jake had just turned 24 when he signed but at the time (before he broke out this regular season) his comps were in good company. Things certainly escalated quickly this year
- WSCTeton17

Right, what I'm saying is those guys have a lot more leverage. It's more expensive to buy out UFA years.

Murray will now be a UFA after this year so either they'd have paid more on his last deal or really have their hands tied in this negotiation.