Sean Maloughney: Some Comments On Samorukov

Saw him play in a world junior exhibition game without knowing who he was. So I looked at his hockeydb and was very happy to see that the Oilers had drafted him. He ran the game when he was on the ice and he was huge!

Worth noting, his sudden uptick in production wasn't just some random spike of luck; it coincided perfectly with the Storm trading away Ryan Merkley. Also, Samorukov doesn't have a chance to build on and surpass Ellis' OHL Playoff record because the OHL playoffs are over.

I'm optimistic about his development, but not any more than I was about Jones.

Worth noting, his sudden uptick in production wasn't just some random spike of luck; it coincided perfectly with the Storm trading away Ryan Merkley. Also, Samorukov doesn't have a chance to build on and surpass Ellis' OHL Playoff record because the OHL playoffs are over.

I'm optimistic about his development, but not any more than I was about Jones.
- MaximumBone

What do you think about Miller? MacKenzie is reporting he is out of favour in Vegas....2 years left at 3 mil per.....I wonder if it’s worth sending Bear or someone like that who is a cheap option plus a pick

Worth noting, his sudden uptick in production wasn't just some random spike of luck; it coincided perfectly with the Storm trading away Ryan Merkley. Also, Samorukov doesn't have a chance to build on and surpass Ellis' OHL Playoff record because the OHL playoffs are over.

I'm optimistic about his development, but not any more than I was about Jones.
- MaximumBone

100% and it has continued at a near constant pace since. Also a flub on my part with OHL playoffs, it's been changed.

What do you think about Miller? MacKenzie is reporting he is out of favour in Vegas....2 years left at 3 mil per.....I wonder if it’s worth sending Bear or someone like that who is a cheap option plus a pick
- RatedR80

I'm not convinced he'd be what we're looking for. He's primarily been a 3rd pairing Dman for his whole career (including in Vegas), but hasn't shown to be winning those matchups as much as I'd like. In comparable usage to Benning, he does well to drive play in a positive direction but seems to struggle with conversion ratios (in both directions).

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2016-17 - 7.97%/19.79%
2017-18 - 13.06%/18.68%
2018-19 - 12.0%/16.67%

I can appreciate that he has consistently improved his defensive results, but here's how Benning stacks up in comparison:

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2016-17 - 13.37%/15.79%
2017-18 - 12.86%/9.97%
2018-19 - 13.55%/11.52%

Pretty stark difference as far as results go. Lastly, here's the "goal" for me if I'd be spending assets on a 3rd pairing, matchup-killer (Grezlyck's numbers):

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2017-18 - 16.88%/6.30%
2018-19 - 15.48%/8.98%

Usage has been a little different between Grezy and the other two, but Miller's numbers don't even reach the ballpark.

A 3rd pairing D that can kill easy matchups and produce on the PP is still valuable, but I don't think Miller has shown to be that. Since he wouldn't fill the 2RD hole (barring miraculous chemistry with Nurse) and hasn't done enough good as a 3rd pairing guy to be used as a matchup-killer, then I don't think he'd be worth the price of acquisition or of his contract.

What do you think about Miller? MacKenzie is reporting he is out of favour in Vegas....2 years left at 3 mil per.....I wonder if it’s worth sending Bear or someone like that who is a cheap option plus a pick
- RatedR80

Defense not needed. Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera, Russell, Benning as our top 6 with options brewing and about ready in the A, we dont need to spend assets or limited cap space there. Even if we can get rid of Russell we have options that seem to be about ready down in Bako and it still allows Bouch and Sami a year or so to percolate there too. This team needs wing help and desperately. None of our limited space can be used on anything but a backup G and wingers. Not even a penny.

Defense not needed. Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera, Russell, Benning as our top 6 with options brewing and about ready in the A, we dont need to spend assets or limited cap space there. Even if we can get rid of Russell we have options that seem to be about ready down in Bako and it still allows Bouch and Sami a year or so to percolate there too. This team needs wing help and desperately. None of our limited space can be used on anything but a backup G and wingers. Not even a penny.
- wreckage

I agree with the sentiment, but disagree with the extremity. If there's a clear upgrade available that doesn't take much away from adding 2 wingers for our top-6/9, then I'm all for it.

I'm not convinced he'd be what we're looking for. He's primarily been a 3rd pairing Dman for his whole career (including in Vegas), but hasn't shown to be winning those matchups as much as I'd like. In comparable usage to Benning, he does well to drive play in a positive direction but seems to struggle with conversion ratios (in both directions).

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2016-17 - 7.97%/19.79%
2017-18 - 13.06%/18.68%
2018-19 - 12.0%/16.67%

I can appreciate that he has consistently improved his defensive results, but here's how Benning stacks up in comparison:

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2016-17 - 13.37%/15.79%
2017-18 - 12.86%/9.97%
2018-19 - 13.55%/11.52%

Pretty stark difference as far as results go. Lastly, here's the "goal" for me if I'd be spending assets on a 3rd pairing, matchup-killer (Grezlyck's numbers):

Season - HD Conv./HD Prot.
2017-18 - 16.88%/6.30%
2018-19 - 15.48%/8.98%

Usage has been a little different between Grezy and the other two, but Miller's numbers don't even reach the ballpark.

A 3rd pairing D that can kill easy matchups and produce on the PP is still valuable, but I don't think Miller has shown to be that. Since he wouldn't fill the 2RD hole (barring miraculous chemistry with Nurse) and hasn't done enough good as a 3rd pairing guy to be used as a matchup-killer, then I don't think he'd be worth the price of acquisition or of his contract.
- MaximumBone

Well given the numbers that you have shown me that will be a hard pass on Miller....didn’t really see him play so I couldn’t come up with an opinion

Defense not needed. Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera, Russell, Benning as our top 6 with options brewing and about ready in the A, we dont need to spend assets or limited cap space there. Even if we can get rid of Russell we have options that seem to be about ready down in Bako and it still allows Bouch and Sami a year or so to percolate there too. This team needs wing help and desperately. None of our limited space can be used on anything but a backup G and wingers. Not even a penny.
- wreckage

If we move on from Russell then we need someone who can play that side....so unless Sekera or Jones can step into that role to play with Nurse it is a bit of a hole

Well given the numbers that you have shown me that will be a hard pass on Miller....didn’t really see him play so I couldn’t come up with an opinion
- RatedR80

It's only two dimensions shown there, but they're dimensions I've come to value more and more. It has myriad flaws on it's own, but seems to do a good job comparing within ice-time & usage groups.

I could certainly frame him better using shot share and actual HD chance share numbers, but at some point results have to come. He can outchance his opposition until the cows come home but it means little if the results consistently show the opposite.

If we move on from Russell then we need someone who can play that side....so unless Sekera or Jones can step into that role to play with Nurse it is a bit of a hole
- RatedR80

As much as I trust Sekera, I'd feel much more comfortable with him in the 3LD spot going into the season than him in the 2RD spot.

It's only two dimensions shown there, but they're dimensions I've come to value more and more. It has myriad flaws on it's own, but seems to do a good job comparing within ice-time & usage groups.

I could certainly frame him better using shot share and actual HD chance share numbers, but at some point results have to come. He can outchance his opposition until the cows come home but it means little if the results consistently show the opposite.
- MaximumBone

Last thing I would want to do is take a chance on a maybe or what if....we seem to fail at that....while I did say forwards should be the number one priority I would still add a defenceman under the right circumstances

As much as I trust Sekera, I'd feel much more comfortable with him in the 3LD spot going into the season than him in the 2RD spot.
- MaximumBone

It’s too bad Stralman costs 4.5 because I can see him being traded this off season

It’s too bad Stralman costs 4.5 because I can see him being traded this off season
- RatedR80

He's a UFA this offseason.

Last thing I would want to do is take a chance on a maybe or what if....we seem to fail at that....while I did say forwards should be the number one priority I would still add a defenceman under the right circumstances
- RatedR80

I'm mocking up my list of offseason Dman targets to try to find some hidden gems who just defend really well. Trying to find the next McNabb, but it's proving difficult to parse defensive numbers.

What do you think about Miller? MacKenzie is reporting he is out of favour in Vegas....2 years left at 3 mil per.....I wonder if it’s worth sending Bear or someone like that who is a cheap option plus a pick
- RatedR80

I'd take Miller all day long and I think they may end up moving Karlsson for cap reasons.

He's a UFA this offseason.
- MaximumBone

So he is....really need to stop “quick reading” and actually look at what I’m reading on contracts

I'd take Miller all day long and I think they may end up moving Karlsson for cap reasons.
- Reveen.

They might move both.....Pirri is someone I would keep an eye out for too....if the Oilers could get him then they should

They might move both.....Pirri is someone I would keep an eye out for too....if the Oilers could get him then they should
- RatedR80

Piri is a UFA ?

Piri is a UFA ?
- Reveen.

He is a UFA and wants the opportunity to play full time in the NHL

He is a UFA and wants the opportunity to play full time in the NHL
- RatedR80

Trigger man for RNH

He is a UFA and wants the opportunity to play full time in the NHL
- RatedR80

Few better opportunities than here and we could do a lot worse than a 2nd line of Nuge, Pirri and one of Zucker or Nyquist (whichever we can manage).

Few better opportunities than here and we could do a lot worse than a 2nd line of Nuge, Pirri and one of Zucker or Nyquist (whichever we can manage).
- MaximumBone

Nope to Zucker.... trade for William Karlsson

https://www.teamworkonlin...lvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

For all the stat geniuses...