HockeyBuzz Hotstove: 2018-19 Norris Trophy picks

Yeah not much doubt here ... the one award that is pretty clear cut. Well done Gio.

Though I'm sure he'd trade it for a 2nd round appearance. But alas ... Flames got completely exposed, yet again.

Almost as bad as not making playoffs.... like my squad.

If you look at raw numbers Giordano takes the prize but he's also surrounded by the best d corps with Hanafin, Brodie, and Hamonic. In that crew, Giordano stands above all while Hedman is not the clear cut leader in number on TB.

What? Giordano had the best season, but Tampa has a better group of defencemen than Calgary, and Hedman is clearly the undisputed top guy there.

Tanner do you agree?

"And the Lifetime Career Achievement Award goes to........"

Thats all the NHL awards are about these days

Tanner do you agree?

Shocked he wasn’t all over this, crying that Reilly or OEL weren’t nominated

Tanner do you agree?
- BlackhawkMike

No, Morgan Rielly lead the NHL in goals and 5v5 points by a defenseman and he did it while partnered with Ron Hainsey. The WOWYs show that Rielly goes from a 49% player with Ron to a 56% player with anyone else.

I think Rielly should win it by about seven thousand miles.

No, Morgan Rielly lead the NHL in goals and 5v5 points by a defenseman and he did it while partnered with Ron Hainsey. The WOWYs show that Rielly goes from a 49% player with Ron to a 56% player with anyone else.

I think Rielly should win it by about seven thousand miles.
- James_Tanner

Haha, so predictable

If your not playing in Metropolitan, Atlantic or have a hipster manbun, don't expect a fair shake.

If your not playing in Metropolitan, Atlantic or have a hipster manbun, don't expect a fair shake.
- dspiropoulos

So which of those categories did Duncan Keith fit into when he won his two? Or Lidstrom, when he won his 7?

So which of those categories did Duncan Keith fit into when he won his two? Or Lidstrom, when he won his 7?
- jmatchett383

Or Giordano, who will likely win it this year

No, Morgan Rielly lead the NHL in goals and 5v5 points by a defenseman and he did it while partnered with Ron Hainsey. The WOWYs show that Rielly goes from a 49% player with Ron to a 56% player with anyone else.

I think Rielly should win it by about seven thousand miles.
- James_Tanner

Now do Gio and Brodie


The problem, James, is that you only look at Rielly through this lens of "he carried his partner" so he's better than the other guys without bothering to do the same for the other candidates.

Gio carried Brodie too, Brodie has no business being on a top pairing without Gio to carry him, both the eye test and wowy stats back that up.

"both the eye test and wowy stats back that up"

I like it "wowy stats"... I am going to steal that one.

Now do Gio and Brodie


The problem, James, is that you only look at Rielly through this lens of "he carried his partner" so he's better than the other guys without bothering to do the same for the other candidates.

Gio carried Brodie too, Brodie has no business being on a top pairing without Gio to carry him, both the eye test and wowy stats back that up.
- Nucker101

Gio and Brodie combine for a 57% CF but all his numbers go down when he's not on the ice with Brodie.

So you are wrong.

But even if we just watched the games and looked at no numbers, I think we could all agree that TJ Brodie is significantly better than Ron Hainsey..

"both the eye test and wowy stats back that up"

I like it "wowy stats"... I am going to steal that one.
- bsimms

WOWY is with you without you. It's a measure of a players effectiveness with and without their usual linemates.

Gio and Brodie combine for a 57% CF but all his numbers go down when he's not on the ice with Brodie.

So you are wrong.

But even if we just watched the games and looked at no numbers, I think we could all agree that TJ Brodie is significantly better than Ron Hainsey..
- James_Tanner

(click to zoom in)


Is that really the conclusion you come up when looking at these stats? That Gio relies on Brodie?


Gio's numbers are basically the same with or without Brodie, Brodie's numbers tank without Gio.

And you yourself have said multiple times that season that the Leafs have the most talented group of forwards in the league so of course Rielly's going to have a few more points and a bit of an easier time on the ice, no? Or do we now throw that out of the window when discussing Gio vs Rielly?

Bill Peters shifted Brodie to the third pairing and moved Rasmus Anderson to the 1st pairing (rookie), who was more physical, had fewer givaways while playing against top line forwards....sign of future things to come. Brodie is not a 1st line pairing, ask Hamonic why last year was his worst ever?

(click to zoom in)


Is that really the conclusion you come up when looking at these stats? That Gio relies on Brodie?


Gio's numbers are basically the same with or without Brodie, Brodie's numbers tank without Gio.

And you yourself have said multiple times that season that the Leafs have the most talented group of forwards in the league so of course Rielly's going to have a few more points and a bit of an easier time on the ice, no? Or do we now throw that out of the window when discussing Gio vs Rielly?
- Nucker101

I didn't say that Gio relies on Brodie, just that most of his number go down when he plays with someone else, meaning that they are a great partnership.

I only brought it up because someone tried to say Brodie is as bad as Hainsey, which is whack.

I didn't say that Gio relies on Brodie, just that most of his number go down when he plays with someone else, meaning that they are a great partnership.

I only brought it up because someone tried to say Brodie is as bad as Hainsey, which is whack.
- James_Tanner

Not really true according to those wowy stats I just posted. Gio actually has a higher XGF% without Brodie and a better HDCorsi% too


Those stats tell me that Gio is a stud who carries play no matter who he plays with and Brodie is arguably average at best without him

I didn't say that Gio relies on Brodie, just that most of his number go down when he plays with someone else, meaning that they are a great partnership.

I only brought it up because someone tried to say Brodie is as bad as Hainsey, which is whack.
- James_Tanner

How many times per game did Hainsey turn the puck over in his own end then immediately drop to the ice and start flopping around? If he did that less than once per game, I'd take Hainsey over Brodie. Most superstar defenders just need a steady partner to succeed.

You want some stats to see how big of an impact Gio has on his partner, look at Brodie's stats from last year as well as Hamonic's. It's not a coincidence that Hamonic actually looked like a pretty good defenceman again when he didn't have to worry about Brodie doing his best to set up the other team every game.

WOWY can be extremely useful, but IMO also extremely dangerous.

One, you're cutting down your sample size to look at smaller and smaller fragments of game time featuring various combinations or non-combinations of players, so you start seeing a lot more potential noise in the data.

And two, these numbers are almost always presented without clarifying context that could prove pretty critical. For example, who makes up the "without" sample for Rielly and Hainsey? Let's just look purely at the breakdown of their defensive partners at 5-on-5 when they aren't playing together:

RIELLY'S NON-HAINSEY PARTNERS
Muzzin - 131 minutes
Gardiner - 95 minutes
Dermott - 73 minutes
Ozhiganov - 53 minutes
Zaitsev - 37 minutes
Marincin - 25 minutes
Holl - 14 minutes
Rosen - 4 minutes

HAINSEY'S NON-RIELLY PARTNERS
Dermott - 96 minutes
Zaitsev - 88 minutes
Gardiner - 40 minutes
Ozhiganov - 24 minutes
Holl - 23 minutes
Muzzin - 11 minutes
Marincin - 10 minutes
Rosen - 1 minute

Also, get this: Rielly and Hainsey together are used in all zones and take almost exactly as many offensive zone draws as defensive ones (428 vs 410; 51 percent zone starts). But Rielly without Hainsey takes three times as many offensive zone draws as defensive ones (66.7 percent), while Hainsey nearly doubles up in the opposite direction (37 percent).

Looking that that breakdown, yeah -- color me shocked that Rielly looks a lot better without Hainsey than Hainsey does without Rielly. I mean, Rielly is a way better player, sure. That's obvious. But he also gets to play with great players almost every time he touches the ice, and mostly in highly optimal situations, when separated from his regular partner. The reverse is definitely not true.

And that's just the defense partners. Here are some other things this analysis doesn't cover that would be pretty important to know before making quantitative judgments:

- What forwards are they playing with most often when they're together vs separated?
- What are the game states when playing with those defenders / forwards?
- What about zone starts and deployment with those defenders / forwards?
- What about quality of opposition?