Ryan Wilson: Mike Sullivan needs to get Patric Hornqvist going Mike Sullivan needs to get Patric Hornqvist going

That contract will kill us for years to come! I wish we could unload him to a Western Conference team for a LW or D.

Ehhhh. I’m not sure I can agree with RW that Guentzel is better as a bet front prescence on the PP. While I do think he’s good and has the willingness to go there, I feel like when I did some digging on the different PP units without G vs. Horny, the numbers had a stark difference in PP GF. I’d have to revisit that over lunch and see if my memory serves me right.

Assuming Kessel continues to play with Geno, I think the best place for Hornqvist is on Sid's line at RW, especially in the playoffs, provided the Pens make the playoffs.

Rust is versatile enough to play on either wing on any line and can be moved up and down the line-up as necessary.

For me, the biggest question mark is where does Bjugstad play? Is he going to end up being the 3rd line center, as a lot folks originally thought following the FLA trade, or play wing in the top six?

Finally, would agree with Ryan that Hornqvist, for the $$ he is being paid, is not a good value for the Pens playing in the bottom 6. At some point, however, I think he'll eventually end up with Sid at RW, even if Sid is not the biggest fan of such a move given Hornqvist's physical limitations.

Ehhhh. I’m not sure I can agree with RW that Guentzel is better as a bet front prescence on the PP. While I do think he’s good and has the willingness to go there, I feel like when I did some digging on the different PP units without G vs. Horny, the numbers had a stark difference in PP GF. I’d have to revisit that over lunch and see if my memory serves me right.
- j.boyd919

This season 5v4

Top PP w/Hornqvist

CF60: 91.48
SCF60: 53.77
HDCF60: 23.05
GF60: 11.87

Top PP w/Guentzel

CF60: 91.49
SCF60: 52.68
HDCF60: 23.57
GF60: 6.93

Based on this I would say Hornqvist is more effective as the rate of chances doesn't change but the result does.

@Boyd I’m a reformed “We can sub Hornqvist for G on the PP and be fine if not better” guy myself. The numbers are indeed stark as far as PP success rates go when Hornqvist is out vs when he’s in. It doesn’t make sense to me, since in theory I think the PP should be better with a guy like G that is perfectly fine in front of the net and is way better at literally everything else, but every time Hornqvist gets injured our PP tanks. Granted, this could be random variance and our PP could just happen to go down the poopter when Hornqvist goes down, but it’s literally every time Hornqvist gets hurt so I doubt that.

I think it comes down to the fact that Hornqvist is a better screener and agitator. G is a superior net front goal scorer, and Hornqvist’s skills at deflections and rebound scoring are VASTLY overrated but his knack for creating shear chaos gives him an edge in the PP net front role over G despite being the worse goal scorer.

This season 5v4

Top PP w/Hornqvist

CF60: 91.48
SCF60: 53.77
HDCF60: 23.05
GF60: 11.87

Top PP w/Guentzel

CF60: 91.49
SCF60: 52.68
HDCF60: 23.57
GF60: 6.93

Based on this I would say Hornqvist is more effective as the rate of chances doesn't change but the result does.
- Feds91Stammer

If I remember correctly this actually holds true for the past three seasons, not just this one.

Like we see with Jack Johnson filling a need despite poor performance, are we in the same situation with Hornqvist? He filled a role, got some goals, was a great team guy and got a contract that is now looked on as burdensome due to reduced performance. Not sure he still has the tools to be getting top 6 minutes.

If Sully sticks with Bjugstad at 3C for at least one full game I'll be curious to see what affect that has on Hornqvist; I can see their styles being complimentary. Again, that's as long as he actually keeps them together longer than a period because the moment Rust or ZAR have two bad shifts in a row, Bjugstad is back up in the top six.

Like we see with Jack Johnson filling a need despite poor performance, are we in the same situation with Hornqvist? He filled a role, got some goals, was a great team guy and got a contract that is now looked on as burdensome due to reduced performance. Not sure he still has the tools to be getting top 6 minutes.
- Dr Blob

I feel like we go through this Hornqvist thing every single season then he picks his game back up and we all forget about the dry spell.

Like we see with Jack Johnson filling a need despite poor performance, are we in the same situation with Hornqvist? He filled a role, got some goals, was a great team guy and got a contract that is now looked on as burdensome due to reduced performance. Not sure he still has the tools to be getting top 6 minutes.
- Dr Blob

Comparing Hornqvist to JMFJ is a crime punishable by castration. He's not the player he was 3 years ago, but he's still a useful NHL player.

Malkin has just entered machine mode after a funk (by his standards), and Kessel’s been in a bit of a funk himself lately, so I’m super hesitant to separate them right now when it looks like they’re comfortable and having fun again, but I think our optimal lines look something like this:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
ZAR/Pearson-Malkin-Hornqvist
Simon/Pearson-Bjugstad-Kessel
Blueger-McCann-Simon/ZAR

I think Rust has earned his keep on that first line and the Malkin-Hornqvist duo is pretty effective when Malkin is on his A-game, so I think that’s where it makes most sense to get Hornqvist back into the top 6. ZAR either needs to be with Malkin or on the 4th line, apparently, and if Pearson isn’t playing with high end skill players he may as well be scratched.

I feel like we go through this Hornqvist thing every single season then he picks his game back up and we all forget about the dry spell.
- Rinosaur

Funny thing is his 5v5 p60 is the 2nd best out of his last 5 seasons.

His overall ice time is down so his totals are down. Weird eh.

His biggest concern will be staying healthy over the duration of his contract.

Hornqvist is on the same point pace he's on every year. In order for any 50ish point player to appear consistent throughout the year they'd basically have to register a point every other game or so and that rarely happens.

50 points players have at least one dry spell a season; that's why they're 50 point players and 70 point players. They put up points in small bunches and have one or two quiet runs.

I'm someone who always goes back and forth on Hornqvist, but I feel like we won't be having this conversation in another game or so.

Sullivan is even scratching Sprong when he plays for another team...let the kid play

Funny thing is his 5v5 p60 is the 2nd best out of his last 5 seasons.

His overall ice time is down so his totals are down. Weird eh.

His biggest concern will be staying healthy over the duration of his contract.
- Feds91Stammer

Yup. Plus, Sully has been even more erratic with player treatment this year, so I feel like he's been hampering players by not giving them a real shot to go on a streak.

Sullivan is even scratching Sprong when he plays for another team...let the kid play
- jchst22

huh?

I think I'd rather Pearson than Wilson in the lineup...what is Wilson bringing? Hits...Pearson has hits but also has better mitts.

I know Dad isn't getting scratched even though a lot of us thought best case scenario when he was signed was that he wouldn't play every game, maybe not BTB's at that age a la Selanne to help persevere his old body and mind down the line...ignoring the Dad issues....I think the lines should be:

59-87-72 (has almost always worked)
43-71-81 (looked great yesterday)
12-27-17 (two feisty fast wingers for the big slower man down the middle)
14-19-53 (big body in Pearson who can also shoot and two smart, fast with skill players)

Could swap around 12, 19 and 53 a bit there as well.

Victor,

I posted it last year and if f I remember correctly the previous 2 years the Pens were around 26% on the PP with Hornqvist in the line up and around 14% without him. It was a small small sample size without him (20-25 games?) but that is a big difference in success rate.

huh?
- jmatchett383

Healthy scratch in Anaheim last night

Healthy scratch in Anaheim last night
- jchst22

And Anaheim has a guy behind the bench with zero coaching experience.

Victor,

I posted it last year and if f I remember correctly the previous 2 years the Pens were around 26% on the PP with Hornqvist in the line up and around 14% without him. It was a small small sample size without him (20-25 games?) but that is a big difference in success rate.
- willi

Yeah so could be random variance in a small sample but I doubt it, and I’m off the replace Hornqvist on the PP1 train. He’ll always frustrate me on the PP1 when possessions die on his stick for no reason other than the fact that he has no clue what to do with the puck, but he does more good than harm.

Healthy scratch in Anaheim last night
- jchst22

So...what does that have to do with Sullivan? I'm lost here. Is he coaching 2 teams now?

Healthy scratch in Anaheim last night
- jchst22

And they won against the Caps!....they've lost an awful lot since Sprong was acquired, did he infect the locker room?

If he was scratched and they won, he'll probably be scratched some more.

Pettersson had a beast of a game to my eyes yesterday.

So...what does that have to do with Sullivan? I'm lost here. Is he coaching 2 teams now?
- jmatchett383

I think it was a joke attempt about how much Sullivan scratched him...