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Forums :: Blog World :: Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank: Melnyk The Salesman
Author Message
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Feb 7 @ 1:54 PM ET
O'Reilly is not a good comparable at all.

Bergeron is probably a better comparison, but Stone is in his prime.

He's the best two-way winger in the game. Feel free to dispute that.

O'Reilly is an upper echelon 2nd line centre.

- Jordo


ding ding ding

if Stone was a center he'd probably have 3 Selke's already

people in EKs blog are hilarious

according to them:

dzingel is only worth a second a mediocre prospect

stone is only worth a conditional 1st (2nd if he doenst' sign) and a B level prospect

(frank) people are stupid on this website.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Feb 7 @ 1:57 PM ET
Stone and Duchene can and should net a 1st rounders and/or very good prospects. A 1st rounder for Dzingel would be an overpayment IMO. You never know how desparate a GM might be to make an acquisition but the problem is Chia is presently unemployed.

Melnyk is a terrible. He is a big part of the reason Alfie and EK are no longer part of the organization. Not only is Melnyk a PR nightmare everytime he steps in front on the mic but he has no imagination or vision either so causes the entire organization to lose credability simultaneously . Which is why you would have to overpay big time for Duchene or Stone to want to stay there with things the way it is right now. If he remains owner, he first needs to bring a hockey person with similar profile as a Shanahan who can bring some respect and credibility to the organization, get players and fans to buy into a properly defined vision and carefully laid out plan. Then you begin your rebuild.

You cant sound off with some half baked idea of a 5yr plan that involves a 2 year rebuild. 2 yrs?? you dont even have your 1st round pick in 2019 which might turn out to be Jack Hughes and unless you get very Lucky MD or MS arent netting you a top 10 1st rounder this year either. Take the leafs for instance....between 2012-2015 they drafted Reilly, Gaultheir, Nylander, & Marner and they still didnt turn things around until they finished last in 2016 and got AM34 (and traded for Andersen)....no way you do this in 2 years when all you have is Tkachuk and Chabot as core players

- Turnitaround


the guy is on pace for about 30 goals and 60 pts and you think a 1st is an overpayment.
Jordo
Ottawa Senators
Location: 40 minute busride from downtow, ON
Joined: 06.27.2007

Feb 7 @ 2:35 PM ET
the guy is on pace for about 30 goals and 60 pts and you think a 1st is an overpayment.

- sensarmy_11


Brian Boyle was just traded for a 2nd rounder.

Boyle (34 years old, cap hit $2.55m): In 47 games, 13G, 6A, -13

Dzingel (26 years old, cap hit $1.8m): In 51 games, 20G, 20A, -16
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Feb 7 @ 2:49 PM ET
Brian Boyle was just traded for a 2nd rounder.

Boyle (34 years old, cap hit $2.55m): In 47 games, 13G, 6A, -13

Dzingel (26 years old, cap hit $1.8m): In 51 games, 20G, 20A, -16

- Jordo

The issue with getting a late first round pick for Dzingel isn't so much a question of it being fair value but has more to do with the number of first round picks available amongst buyers willing to part with them. With Panarin, Duchene, Stone and potentially Simmonds commanding first round picks, are there enough teams with first round picks in play?
Queenie_5_hole
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 05.01.2015

Feb 7 @ 3:38 PM ET
Being a cap spending team does not guarantee success. The top 10 cap spending teams are:

Detroit
Washington
Edmonton
Anahiem
Pittsburgh
Dallas
San Jose
Calgary
St. Louis
LA Kings

- spatso


Nothing is guaranteed, but the bottom 10 cap spending teams are:

Carolina
New Jersey
Colorado
New York (Islanders)
Vancouver
Montreal
Philadelphia
Ottawa
Columbus
Arizona

How's that compare to the top 10?
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Feb 7 @ 3:58 PM ET
ding ding ding

if Stone was a center he'd probably have 3 Selke's already

people in EKs blog are hilarious

according to them:

dzingel is only worth a second a mediocre prospect

stone is only worth a conditional 1st (2nd if he doenst' sign) and a B level prospect

(frank) people are stupid on this website.

- sensarmy_11


Glad you know it all.
We shall see.

No one is arguing how good they are.
It is the valuation you assign given available supply and demand...especially demand side.
You want a 1st for a rental ... that is going to be a mid/late 20's puck...like SJS's.
Then there is the issue of Cap space availability
Brace yourself to be disappointed...a trade of that nagnitude usually occurs in the offseason when teams can adequately plan for it.
It isnt a shoe-in as you think.
But, hey good luck.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Feb 7 @ 4:35 PM ET
The issue with getting a late first round pick for Dzingel isn't so much a question of it being fair value but has more to do with the number of first round picks available amongst buyers willing to part with them. With Panarin, Duchene, Stone and potentially Simmonds commanding first round picks, are there enough teams with first round picks in play?
- SensFan25


Good question, it was discussed a little earlier, but many teams also dont all have firsts (an jose), or may be less inclined to give them up after last season.(Calgary)
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Feb 7 @ 5:03 PM ET
Nothing is guaranteed, but the bottom 10 cap spending teams are:

Carolina
New Jersey
Colorado
New York (Islanders)
Vancouver
Montreal
Philadelphia
Ottawa
Columbus
Arizona

How's that compare to the top 10?

- Queenie_5_hole


If you were to add the total points of each team (top 10 and bottom 10) the result would be fairly even. However, if you added up the ages of the players on the respective teams you would find that the top 10 cap teams are a good deal older than the bottom 10 teams.

Is it fair to say that the bottom 10 teams in annual salary represent the young rebuilding teams. Many of the top 10 teams are getting near the point of having to begin a cycle of rebuilding.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Feb 7 @ 6:55 PM ET
2021 - Matt Duchene is 30.5 years old in the summer

He'll have 6 years ahead @....what number?

I think if it's 8m that's fair. Anything above that, you start talking 8.5m and beyond, it's completely not worth it for a team with this owner.

Time to trade him

As for Stone, 3 years from now he'll still be in his 20s
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Feb 7 @ 7:22 PM ET
2021 - Matt Duchene is 30.5 years old in the summer

He'll have 6 years ahead @....what number?

I think if it's 8m that's fair. Anything above that, you start talking 8.5m and beyond, it's completely not worth it for a team with this owner.

Time to trade him

As for Stone, 3 years from now he'll still be in his 20s

- AlfieisKing


unless Melnyk wins 3 straight powerball jackpots there is basically zero chance he's still the owner of this team in 3 years.

it's financially impossible:

he's losing money hand over fist from operating costs

paying millions in interest each year

has not other business interests to absorb his NHL loses

cap floor is going up

team value will tank if the lebreton deal falls apart....which it likely will since he doesn't have any money to put up for the build and nobody wants to work with him

players, fans, city, league, and local businesses all want him out


will it happen this year, or even next year....probably not....but it's inevitable
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Feb 7 @ 9:58 PM ET
Interesting talk about how Dzingel could get a lot of interest during the intermission today. I still think he gets ignored due to the other big name guys on ottawa and other teams.

Perhaps I'm pessimistic, but it seems this may not be the best year to be unloading so much talent. Time will tell.

Also, love Tkachuck trolling Kessler in that scrum. He's going to be annoying for the opposition for a long time to come.
sgoodwin
Ottawa Senators
Location: London, ON
Joined: 03.20.2013

Feb 8 @ 8:48 AM ET
Fack. Take the money and run Melnyck you stupid PoS. My god, this fellow is so much like Trump (though in fairness, not a completely corrupt, treasonous criminal). The new owners should promise him lifetime VIP status (which, face it, won't really be that long) and maybe an unpaid, powerless figurehead role on the Board of Directors. Sell!
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Feb 8 @ 10:41 AM ET
Very impressed with Chabot. The kid can play....He's the best young D man by a country mile. And...he's Canadian
- BernardShakey



for the Sens?
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Feb 8 @ 11:46 AM ET
for the Sens?
- prock


dude, you forgot to log out of your prock account and back in to your spatso account.

hurry before someone else sees
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:56 PM ET
unless Melnyk wins 3 straight powerball jackpots there is basically zero chance he's still the owner of this team in 3 years.

it's financially impossible:

he's losing money hand over fist from operating costs

paying millions in interest each year

has not other business interests to absorb his NHL loses

cap floor is going up

team value will tank if the lebreton deal falls apart....which it likely will since he doesn't have any money to put up for the build and nobody wants to work with him

players, fans, city, league, and local businesses all want him out


will it happen this year, or even next year....probably not....but it's inevitable

- sensarmy_11
hope your right, and hard to argue there
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Feb 9 @ 8:21 AM ET
I would think today (this weekend) is deadline time. Everybody knows the range of numbers (dollars, term, bonus). So, it is no longer really about a number, it is about yes or no. Given the time range to the deadline, if we do not have a yes by Monday morning...we can assume it is likely no deal.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Feb 9 @ 11:03 AM ET
Apparently Carolina is looking to go buy some guys they think they'd be able to re-sign. Wonder if Duchene might be able to be convinced.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Feb 9 @ 11:07 AM ET
Apparently Carolina is looking to go buy some guys they think they'd be able to re-sign. Wonder if Duchene might be able to be convinced.
- BINGO!


Seems kinda risky no?

Or would it be a sign and trade situation?
forbetterorWORSE
Ottawa Senators
Location: Riverview, NB
Joined: 06.12.2009

Feb 9 @ 7:25 PM ET
I would think today (this weekend) is deadline time. Everybody knows the range of numbers (dollars, term, bonus). So, it is no longer really about a number, it is about yes or no. Given the time range to the deadline, if we do not have a yes by Monday morning...we can assume it is likely no deal.
- spatso

Perfect time for trading any of the big 3 after their performances today.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Feb 9 @ 7:57 PM ET
Perfect time for trading any of the big 3 after their performances today.
- forbetterorWORSE

was thinking the same; their on fire.
knock on wood they don't get hurt ! I'd trade them now before one gets injured
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