Hard work and battle level are awful cliches in sports. Pens were not the better team. Caps were the higher skilled team. Pens were a two player team, they weren’t even top heavy, they had two players going off. Caps had balanced scoring through the whole playoffs. They didn’t have more gas or battle level, they were just better.
- j.boyd919

Yeah we literally had two guys producing. If Geno and Phil weren't hurt we could have seen a different cup champ last year and not necessarily the pens, but we could have beat the caps.

Hard work and battle level are awful cliches in sports. Pens were not the better team. Caps were the higher skilled team. Pens were a two player team, they weren’t even top heavy, they had two players going off. Caps had balanced scoring through the whole playoffs. They didn’t have more gas or battle level, they were just better.
- j.boyd919

Nah.

the fact that this went over your head is (frank)ing awesome.
- Blackstrom2

Hahahahaha

Where did you see this? Sid played over 21 and Phil, PHIL played almost 20. I thought he did a really good job of sheltering the new guys and leaning on his go-to’s
- WSCTeton17

https://www.naturalstattr...eason=20182019&game=20784

I mean I know that is the joke. just thought that was a really well made one.
- martox

Yeah, you tell em, Alanis Moressette.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20182019&game=20784
- MattStrat

Those are their 5v5 minutes. Gotta hit the ALL tab.

A) James Neal has been very much the same player he was until this season's tail-off. James Neal was always inconsistent and would score a bulk of goals in one part of the season.

B) Yes, Simon has likely gotten a bulk of his points in the top-six, but he's also produced in the bottom six. This idea that a player really isn't that good or worthy of top-six money because they only produce next to top talent is a farse.

I've said this before, but not every player can just become gold next to Sid or Geno. It takes a level abilities and capabilities to handle how fast Sid and Geno think the game. If it was so easy the Pens would have never had issues finding wingers for them.

C) I was never arguing what Simon will be worth. I will say that he's on a similar trajectory as Rust was when he came in.

Simon's production has increased from last year and if he takes another leap next season then there's no reason why he wouldn't be a $3Mish a year player.
- Rinosaur

Starting with his first full season James Neal averaged a 40 goal pace during his time in Pitt, which was definitely his prime. He’s been on a 29 goal pace since leaving. All of his fancy stats have been decreasing for years.

I’m not saying Simon isn’t going to be a top 6 player and I’m not saying he will. I’m saying he has another year and a half on his current RFA deal so for me, I don’t see any point in talking about his next deal and what he may or may not be worth. I’m not saying you’re one of them, but after Sheary broke out some people were clamoring to open up some small vault in Gringots for him. Seems way too early for this armchair GM

Hard work and battle level are awful cliches in sports. Pens were not the better team. Caps were the higher skilled team. Pens were a two player team, they weren’t even top heavy, they had two players going off. Caps had balanced scoring through the whole playoffs. They didn’t have more gas or battle level, they were just better.
- j.boyd919

It's so easy to say that about the Caps and Pens after the fact. After the Caps won the cup... But there's not one person who thought they were going to win it. It was the lowest odds they had in years to win it. The Pens only had a few players produce that doesn't dismiss the fact of what they had on paper. Just like the Caps the years before and what they had in paper skill and talent wise. Heavy favourites. They were not last year.

The Pens totally ran out of gas in game 5 and 6. The Caps changed their game plan laying back more knowing the Pens couldn't hustle behind the D effectively.

Those are their 5v5 minutes. Gotta hit the ALL tab.
- j.boyd919

Hahah oops. Thanks. Thought it was remarkable he pulled that off. Turns out he didn't and I'm an advanced stat site noob.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20182019&game=20784
- MattStrat

I don’t use this site a lot because I’m mostly on my iPhone and it doesn’t seem all that easy to navigate but I was curious after the game so I checked the box scores for TSN last night and then NHL today before I quoted you. They’re both showing Sid over 21 minutes and Phil close to 20. If this site is wrong for TOI (which I’m not verifying) I would say that’s concerning, don’t you think? It would skew all the per 60 stats

Those are their 5v5 minutes. Gotta hit the ALL tab.
- j.boyd919

That’s kinda what I thought, thanks for confirming Boyd

I don’t use this site a lot because I’m mostly on my iPhone and it doesn’t seem all that easy to navigate but I was curious after the game so I checked the box scores for TSN last night and then NHL today before I quoted you. They’re both showing Sid over 21 minutes and Phil close to 20. If this site is wrong for TOI (which I’m not verifying) I would say that’s concerning, don’t you think? It would skew all the per 60 stats
- WSCTeton17

Yeah Boyd showed me were I went wrong. It was only 5 on 5 time.

It's so easy to say that about the Caps and Pens after the fact. After the Caps won the cup... But there's not one person who thought they were going to win it. It was the lowest odds they had in years to win it. The Pens only had a few players produce that doesn't dismiss the fact of what they had on paper. Just like the Caps the years before and what they had in paper skill and talent wise. Heavy favourites. They were not last year.

The Pens totally ran out of gas in game 5 and 6. The Caps changed their game plan laying back more knowing the Pens couldn't hustle behind the D effectively.
- MattStrat

The Caps went into the playoffs with the first seed and 105 points. The Pens were the 2nd season with 100 points. Over 82+ games the Caps were better than the Penguins. Thems just the facts jack.

Starting with his first full season James Neal averaged a 40 goal pace during his time in Pitt, which was definitely his prime. He’s been on a 29 goal pace since leaving. All of his fancy stats have been decreasing for years.

I’m not saying Simon isn’t going to be a top 6 player and I’m not saying he will. I’m saying he has another year and a half on his current RFA deal so for me, I don’t see any point in talking about his next deal and what he may or may not be worth. I’m not saying you’re one of them, but after Sheary broke out some people were clamoring to open up some small vault in Gringots for him. Seems way too early for this armchair GM
- WSCTeton17

Neal's 40 goal season was obviously an aberration. He's been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. He scores goals in bunches then goes dry for long stretches. His "pace" means nothing because he's always on pace and then collapses. He did the same thing last year in Vegas.

Simon IS a top-six player now.

I don’t use this site a lot because I’m mostly on my iPhone and it doesn’t seem all that easy to navigate but I was curious after the game so I checked the box scores for TSN last night and then NHL today before I quoted you. They’re both showing Sid over 21 minutes and Phil close to 20. If this site is wrong for TOI (which I’m not verifying) I would say that’s concerning, don’t you think? It would skew all the per 60 stats
- WSCTeton17

NST defaults to 5v5 for most stats since the majority of the game is played at that state and most stats people refer to 5v5 production as their initial impression of play/players. Took me a while to get used to using my phone on it but now it’s really the only hockey stats site I use unless I’m gonna just check raw stats and then I use hockeyreference

The Caps went into the playoffs with the first seed and 105 points. The Pens were the 2nd season with 100 points. Over 82+ games the Caps were better than the Penguins. Thems just the facts jack.
- j.boyd919

The Caps weren't just the better team. The Pens played terrible mistake-ridden hockey and didn't have the opportunistic abilities of the previous year.

The Caps went into the playoffs with the first seed and 105 points. The Pens were the 2nd season with 100 points. Over 82+ games the Caps were better than the Penguins. Thems just the facts jack.
- j.boyd919

Hahah you're better than this.

It’s encouraging that he’s been producing with 3rd line minutes but with the cap going up and us already cutting off some of these higher cap hit forwards and Cullen leaving, I think any top 6 winger in Pitt should be producing regularly at a 50 point pace

Right now he’s 7th in Pens in Pts/gm excluding Bjugstad (who still might produce more while playing on the RBK line) and Blueger who has only played 2 games. His current pace would’ve put him 8th last season and 9th the year before. So in Pitt I would say his production is middle 6 which aligns with his usage/TOI. Definitely has been meshing in the top 6 for a while now and deserves a long look, but we also have seen the rise and fall of players in the top/middle 6. Call me RW, but I want to see a larger sample size before talking his next contract.

I also disagree that the playoffs are “just hockey.” I’m not the kind of guy to put it up on a huge pedistool but for whatever reason a, b, c players always disappear in the playoffs and x, y, z players always seem to elevate
- WSCTeton17

Pts/gm is a lot less useful than points per 60 minutes which normalizes for ice time. Furthermore, if we really want to get to the crux of it, we should be looking at even strength production since Simon doesn't really get PP time.

Of all forwards, Dom Simon is 9th on the team in 5v5 pts/60 with 2.14. When you filter out guys who don't really have a fair sample size like Blueger, and Dea he's 7th, which puts him ahead of Bryan Rust's 2.1. There's a drop off between Hornqvist at 6th with 2.45 and Simon with 2.14, but that's a really good number of pure 5v5 production. He also has the 5th most even strength primary assists on the team, so its not like he's just riding the coat tales of better linemates racking up secondary apples. He's legit in these plays and setting up his linemates for success.

Is he getting the old Crosby boost? Sure. But you also don't produce legitimate top 6 production and rack up primary assists from being a (frank)ing pigeon. Hesitancy to accept that Simon is legit is pure aesthetic eye test bias.

It's so easy to say that about the Caps and Pens after the fact. After the Caps won the cup... But there's not one person who thought they were going to win it. It was the lowest odds they had in years to win it. The Pens only had a few players produce that doesn't dismiss the fact of what they had on paper. Just like the Caps the years before and what they had in paper skill and talent wise. Heavy favourites. They were not last year.

The Pens totally ran out of gas in game 5 and 6. The Caps changed their game plan laying back more knowing the Pens couldn't hustle behind the D effectively.
- MattStrat

Maybe it’s HCMSs fault or maybe it’s a collective deal, maybe it’s upper management because someone said Lemieux might’ve had something to do with bringing Brass over. But the way I remember it was we were all kind of unsure about our D corps last year, some were one side or the other with sheahan (who was producing basically as a 2C for a while before the trade), but it seemed like almost all of us weren’t crazy about our backend and were looking for some form of an upgrade. Well not only did we not upgrade but there was a gap created when we traded Cole, who was having an unreal season despite taking that puck to the face and obviously he does absolutely whatever it takes to win in the playoffs. We were all hoping for a top 6 upgrade as well, I personally fancied Kane as a sorta Neal type player. I think that handicapped us entering the playoffs. I think if we would’ve just stuck with what we had we would’ve had a better shot against the Caps.

I also think a huge reason why they walked all over us (I’m sure you can relate yelling at your screens that the Caps has gotten YET ANOTHER breakaway or odd man rush) was systems. We were constantly pinching down in the o zone and they were constantly one step ahead in springing some combination of the weak side winger/D and the center on offensive breaks. Honestly, kudos to Trotz for executing his game plan

Imagine we extend Cole for $4MM before he ever hits the market, we never sign JJ, and we let Blueger audition before signing Cullen. and Obviously it changes our D partners and everything so getting to a hypothetical, Schultz might be paired with Cole and maybe he never fractures his leg. Maybe we’re running away with the division. Who knows. I’m not one to get attached to players at all, but I miss Cole and I’ll miss Sheahan. Hoping the best for both guys (not Brass though- he don’t need it)

Maybe it’s HCMSs fault or maybe it’s a collective deal, maybe it’s upper management because someone said Lemieux might’ve had something to do with bringing Brass over. But the way I remember it was we were all kind of unsure about our D corps last year, some were one side or the other with sheahan (who was producing basically as a 2C for a while before the trade), but it seemed like almost all of us weren’t crazy about our backend and were looking for some form of an upgrade. Well not only did we not upgrade but there was a gap created when we traded Cole, who was having an unreal season despite taking that puck to the face and obviously he does absolutely whatever it takes to win in the playoffs. We were all hoping for a top 6 upgrade as well, I personally fancied Kane as a sorta Neal type player. I think that handicapped us entering the playoffs. I think if we would’ve just stuck with what we had we would’ve had a better shot against the Caps.

I also think a huge reason why they walked all over us (I’m sure you can relate yelling at your screens that the Caps has gotten YET ANOTHER breakaway or odd man rush) was systems. We were constantly pinching down in the o zone and they were constantly one step ahead in springing some combination of the weak side winger/D and the center on offensive breaks. Honestly, kudos to Trotz for executing his game plan

Imagine we extend Cole for $4MM before he ever hits the market, we never sign JJ, and we let Blueger audition before signing Cullen. and Obviously it changes our D partners and everything so getting to a hypothetical, Schultz might be paired with Cole and maybe he never fractures his leg. Maybe we’re running away with the division. Who knows. I’m not one to get attached to players at all, but I miss Cole and I’ll miss Sheahan. Hoping the best for both guys (not Brass though- he don’t need it)
- WSCTeton17

Yeah no one was really pleased with how the Pen were playing last season overall or how they went into the playoffs... And the Pens D has been in question heading into the playoffs pretty much every single year in the Crosby era.


I'm simply saying that it was supposed to be the worst Caps team entering the playoffs in years.. Roster wise and advanced stat wise heading into the playoffs. ... And they brought the battle and deserved every win and the cup.

And yeah if we had Cole instead of JJ it would be a massive difference back there.

Starting with his first full season James Neal averaged a 40 goal pace during his time in Pitt, which was definitely his prime. He’s been on a 29 goal pace since leaving. All of his fancy stats have been decreasing for years.

I’m not saying Simon isn’t going to be a top 6 player and I’m not saying he will. I’m saying he has another year and a half on his current RFA deal so for me, I don’t see any point in talking about his next deal and what he may or may not be worth. I’m not saying you’re one of them, but after Sheary broke out some people were clamoring to open up some small vault in Gringots for him. Seems way too early for this armchair GM
- WSCTeton17

I agree with all of this. We had this conversation yesterday about players basically being what they are by their mid-20's. Simon is 24. He's probably destined to be a 30-35 point player playing top 9 roles. He's valuable because he's cheap, competent and versatile.

For me, I don't see a Jake Guentzal. I see little different version of Connor Sheary. Eminently replaceable when he wants more money. Like you say, no need to even think about extending him now anyway.

Neal's 40 goal season was obviously an aberration. He's been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. He scores goals in bunches then goes dry for long stretches. His "pace" means nothing because he's always on pace and then collapses. He did the same thing last year in Vegas.

Simon IS a top-six player now.
- Rinosaur

No no, I looked at his other seasons in Pitt starting with his first full one and they’re all right around a 40 goal pace and the average is like 40.4/82 games. It wasn’t an aberration, it was a clear cut fit with Geno. He had those awful suspensions. I’m not saying we should’ve kept him or anything. I’m just saying I feel that looking at the numbers that you’re mistaken. He had a rough start when we got him (he ended up playing with Staal because of all the injuries if you recall) but after that he tore shot up for 3 seasons and has never replicated it since

I’m on the complete other side about streaky players. I think they still have a ton of value and you NEED to look at the averages. Like, is Laine somehow not a stud in your mind because he’s streaky? I mean, maybe he just needs a different type of center to be more consistent, idk.

I already posted the numbers on Simon. He’s not top 6 in points per game in Pitt, he hasn’t gotten there yet, and honestly as long as we have all this depth he might not. He’s a middle 6 forward in my eyes, just like Hagelin was when he was here. Sure he played with Phil and Geno A LOT but at any moment Sullivan could (and did) pull him down. Simon is averaging 13 minutes of ice time this year. That’s not too 6. For all we know this is one of those “streaks” you were referring to

Pts/gm is a lot less useful than points per 60 minutes which normalizes for ice time. Furthermore, if we really want to get to the crux of it, we should be looking at even strength production since Simon doesn't really get PP time.

Of all forwards, Dom Simon is 9th on the team in 5v5 pts/60 with 2.14. When you filter out guys who don't really have a fair sample size like Blueger, and Dea he's 7th, which puts him ahead of Bryan Rust's 2.1. There's a drop off between Hornqvist at 6th with 2.45 and Simon with 2.14, but that's a really good number of pure 5v5 production. He also has the 5th most even strength primary assists on the team, so its not like he's just riding the coat tales of better linemates racking up secondary apples. He's legit in these plays and setting up his linemates for success.

Is he getting the old Crosby boost? Sure. But you also don't produce legitimate top 6 production and rack up primary assists from being a (frank)ing pigeon. Hesitancy to accept that Simon is legit is pure aesthetic eye test bias.
- Victoro311

I mean, you kinda just told me yourself that he’s 7th. I’m certainly not going to the blackjack table and getting blackjacks when I’ve got a pair of queens. My eye test tells me that he probably can and will stick in our top 6, I’m basing this off the numbers which you and I have provided *shrug*

How’d you get the word (frank)in in there lol! Seriously though, I do appreciate the context and I always do. I like Simon, he’s got chemistry all over our lineup and he’s producing. I also remember a lot of people ripping into him last year too for x, y, z reasons

I think something I might do is look at past top 6 linemates and their production and their cap hits as a % of the cap. That’s probably a somewhat relevant measuring stick when looking at Simon. There’s also A TON of potential free agent talent this summer. If Simon doesn’t trend upward this season with his production, are we then going to say that we don’t need to look into potential top 6 wingers this summer because there’s a chemistry risk or something?

I agree with all of this. We had this conversation yesterday about players basically being what they are by their mid-20's. Simon is 24. He's probably destined to be a 30-35 point player playing top 9 roles. He's valuable because he's cheap, competent and versatile.

For me, I don't see a Jake Guentzal. I see little different version of Connor Sheary. Eminently replaceable when he wants more money. Like you say, no need to even think about extending him now anyway.
- madmike71

It's mistake to use Jake a bench-mark simply because they both came up from WBS and the same comes for comparing him to Sheary for the same reason.

Simon is nothing like either player. He's far more skilled than Sheary, but not the goal-scorer type that Jake is. I think Pens fans use these two extremes now because it's what they know. If they're not like Jake, they're like Sheary. He's like neither of them.

IMO Simon is a guy who's going put up around 50 points a year with around 15 to 20 of those coming from goals.

I agree with all of this. We had this conversation yesterday about players basically being what they are by their mid-20's. Simon is 24. He's probably destined to be a 30-35 point player playing top 9 roles. He's valuable because he's cheap, competent and versatile.

For me, I don't see a Jake Guentzal. I see little different version of Connor Sheary. Eminently replaceable when he wants more money. Like you say, no need to even think about extending him now anyway.
- madmike71

You’re right, we did and I’m on the opposite side of the convo haha. I don’t think at all that “it is what it is” with these mid-20’s guys. I think so much more than just his age needs to be considered such as: years playing pro, years in the NHL, minor league production trends, NHL production trends, and then look at past usage, current usage, and how that usage might differ when applying it towards moving that player up/down the lineup or onto another team. For example: JT Miller has never been a 60 point player (although he’s still young). If Dallas somehow got him there in the offseason it would not surprise me one bit if he breaks out with 60 or 65 points BUT that’s contingent on him playing with some players with offensive upside because Dallas really isn’t a good example because their depth as far as offensive production isn’t good haha