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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Areas of Improvement
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walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jan 9 @ 1:37 PM ET
NO, in 2010 and 2013 the Hawks routinely blitzed teams in shots on goal. 2015 was a bit different and it was much tougher then but I still wager the Hawks were in the + more than not. Comparing this team to the Cup teams is high comedy.

This team is NOT a playoff team, not even worried about it. I am enjoying watching some of the young guys play and seeing Murphy develop the way he has, but it's not a very good team either.

- kwolf68



2015 regular season the Blackhawks had 2,777 shots for vs 2469 shots against.
CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Jan 9 @ 1:48 PM ET
Another way to look at it

Forwards
Elite forwards - Kane and Toews
Top 6 forwards - ADB, Strome, Saad
Top 9 forwards - Kahun, Kampf, Perlini, Caggiula,
Bottom 6 forwards - plenty of options
In the pipeline - Kurashev, Entwistle, Barrat, 1st round 2019 pick

Needs to become a contender
Stud RW to play with Toews and Saad
3rd line FA Center that can contribute offensively, play a 200' game and win draws.
Agitator (Shaw-like, but cheaper, bigger and more durable than Shaw)

Dmen
Top pairing studs - None
Top 4 - Murphy, Keith, Joki
NHL caliber 2nd or 3rd pairing types - Dahlstrom, Forsling, Gus,
In the pipeline Boqvist, Beaudin, Mitchell, Hillman

Needs to become a contender
Stud top pairing DMan

Goalies
Stud - Crow - if healthy (which has been debated ad nauseam)
Promising youngster - Delia
In the pipeline - Forsberg?, Lankinen, Laminov

Needs to become a contender
A Healthy Crow and/or Delia to be the real deal.
If Crow is not healthy and Delia is the real deal, a solid back up, maybe Ward,
If Crow is not healthy and Delia is not the real deal, you need a stud goalie

Depending if you are a glass half full or glass half empty type of guy you could see the Hawks as not that far from being a contender, or a million miles away from being a contender.

- -Doh-


This is a fantastic breakdown. Well done.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jan 9 @ 1:59 PM ET
This is a fantastic breakdown. Well done.
- CanOCorn


I really like where the Hawks are as far as being a really good team in 2-4 years if Strome can turn into a legit #1 center. Lots of potential on the back-end and depth to the point if most of the D prospects pan out you can move one of them for a high end young top 6 forward.

I think in 4 years Kane is still close to his prime powers. The biggest question is what will Toews' game look like and can we move Seabs boat anchor?

The Hawks also need to figure out how to get an elite goal scorer that has some size and can skate. I love Dcat but I don't think he is the type of goal scorer that can dominate games or drive possession.

Saad and Dcat are complimentary top 6 wingers. They don't really drive possession or drive the line they are on.

The future of the Hawks looks a lot better than it did 12-18 months ago.

Is there anyway that Seabs and the Hawks agree to mutually terminate his contract in 2 years or so? With a behind the scenes agreement to pay him salary as a "front office" guy for the same amount? I assume that isn't allowed under the CBA or league rules.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jan 9 @ 2:03 PM ET
Justin commented on a tweet by Chris Block showing the Hawks opponents with 8 more shots (I assume SOG) per game for the past 12 games.

For the whole season - 5x5 - the following shooting stats:

Chicago
2,079 SAT = 46.0 / game
1,122 SOG = 24.9 / game = 53.9% of SAT
87 Goals = 1.9 / game = 7.8% of SOG and 4.2% of SAT

Opponents
2,142 SAT = 47.6 / game
1,239 SOG = 27.5 / game = 55.8% of SAT
103 Goals = 2.3 / game = 8.3% of SOG = 4.8% of SAT

So - again, 5x5 - the Hawks take fewer shots, have fewer getting to the net (going along with Justin's point about being in the lower end of the league in blocked shots), and have fewer of those becoming goals.

powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Jan 9 @ 2:04 PM ET
I really like where the Hawks are as far as being a really good team in 2-4 years if Strome can turn into a legit #1 center. Lots of potential on the back-end and depth to the point if most of the D prospects pan out you can move one of them for a high end young top 6 forward.

I think in 4 years Kane is still close to his prime powers. The biggest question is what will Toews' game look like and can we move Seabs boat anchor?

The Hawks also need to figure out how to get an elite goal scorer that has some size and can skate. I love Dcat but I don't think he is the type of goal scorer that can dominate games or drive possession.

Saad and Dcat are complimentary top 6 wingers. They don't really drive possession or drive the line they are on.

The future of the Hawks looks a lot better than it did 12-18 months ago.

Is there anyway that Seabs and the Hawks agree to mutually terminate his contract in 2 years or so? With a behind the scenes agreement to pay him salary as a "front office" guy for the same amount? I assume that isn't allowed under the CBA or league rules.

- bhawks2241



Didn't Buffalo just buy out a player (name escapes me). I don't see why Seabs and the team could not do that, both parties just have to agree to do it.
Abadseed
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Arlington hts, IL
Joined: 01.20.2014

Jan 9 @ 2:11 PM ET
Didn't Buffalo just buy out a player (name escapes me). I don't see why Seabs and the team could not do that, both parties just have to agree to do it.
- powerenforcer


I don’t think the players association nor seabrooks agent would let him walk away from that much money. They let players like garrison do it because they either don’t want to go to the minors or can make more money in Europe or the khl
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jan 9 @ 2:22 PM ET
I don’t think the players association nor seabrooks agent would let him walk away from that much money. They let players like garrison do it because they either don’t want to go to the minors or can make more money in Europe or the khl
- Abadseed


EDIT: The information below is in response to a buyout, not a mutual termination. Still valuable information but I realize it's different than what you are referring to, however similar in the way that a player does not have a choice if a team decides to terminate his contract.

I don't think the players association has any say.

Keeping in mind that teams can only buy three players out during the entirety of the current CBA, as long as they have a buyout remaining here's what happens:

1. The buyout window opens either 2 days after the Stanley Cup is awarded or on June 15th, whichever is later. It closes on June 30th.

2. Once the team has decided they want to buy a player out, they notify him and place him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of buyout.

3. Player clears unconditional waivers.

4. Buyout occurs. With players under 26 years old, they are paid 1/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.

Players over 26 are paid 2/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 9 @ 2:22 PM ET
So do you go in on an 6-8-year contract for Karlsson? Imagine him with Boqvist and Joker, take some pressure off Keith, add some incentive for the Swedish D?
- resqmed99

I would answer this way. Why give a guy going into his 30's a long contract? I wouldn't. His play won't warrant his contract. Also would put the Hawks back into cap hell with not very good team. That is exactly what you want to avoid. A bad team with cap issues. IMO
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 9 @ 2:30 PM ET
Didn't Buffalo just buy out a player (name escapes me). I don't see why Seabs and the team could not do that, both parties just have to agree to do it.
- powerenforcer

Patrik Berglund.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jan 9 @ 2:50 PM ET
Welcome aboard, Logan! Hope to see you around more.

Good first post about yappers. At Rockford, not many down there especially one worth a call up. Noel fits the bill with a loud mouth and grating playing style but he lacks talent to justify a spot for him.

As far as prospects, Barratt is the one that stands out the most to fill that role to a T.

None of the defense youngsters and prospects are chirpers. Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Krys are really vocal but that’s to teammates, not chirping to get under the skin of opponents.

- AEL_Fox


If Toronto wants Keith really bad, think they would give up Kadri? Or is that too in the now and doesn't project for when we are set up to contend again?
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jan 9 @ 2:56 PM ET
I wouldn't mind Devonte Smith-Pelly as a 4th line agitator type, but after the incident last year I doubt he would want to sign here
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jan 9 @ 3:00 PM ET
EDIT: The information below is in response to a buyout, not a mutual termination. Still valuable information but I realize it's different than what you are referring to, however similar in the way that a player does not have a choice if a team decides to terminate his contract.

I don't think the players association has any say.

Keeping in mind that teams can only buy three players out during the entirety of the current CBA, as long as they have a buyout remaining here's what happens:

1. The buyout window opens either 2 days after the Stanley Cup is awarded or on June 15th, whichever is later. It closes on June 30th.

2. Once the team has decided they want to buy a player out, they notify him and place him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of buyout.

3. Player clears unconditional waivers.

4. Buyout occurs. With players under 26 years old, they are paid 1/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.

Players over 26 are paid 2/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.

- Hawks_49


Here’s what a Seabrook buyout next June would result in:

6-B63-A99-D-085-B-4-FF9-A7-FF-2-D49-CF1-BE6-F0
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jan 9 @ 3:00 PM ET
If Toronto wants Keith really bad, think they would give up Kadri? Or is that too in the now and doesn't project for when we are set up to contend again?
- LAHawk


Not enough return. You would needs picks or prospect to go with Kadri.
Aim high. Ask for Nylander.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jan 9 @ 3:01 PM ET
I wouldn't mind Devonte Smith-Pelly as a 4th line agitator type, but after the incident last year I doubt he would want to sign here
- LAHawk


IIRC, the team handled it quickly, and appropriately.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 9 @ 3:05 PM ET
I would answer this way. Why give a guy going into his 30's a long contract? I wouldn't. His play won't warrant his contract. Also would put the Hawks back into cap hell with not very good team. That is exactly what you want to avoid. A bad team with cap issues. IMO
- Elbows15


Bows, EK was never on my list to sign, so I agree.

I like knowing other's thoughts on what the team should do, what do you think they should do? Stand pat and play kids, sign anyone (short or long term)? Who would you target, if anyone?
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 9 @ 3:05 PM ET
IIRC, the team handled it quickly, and appropriately.
- StLBravesFan


Booted and banned, right?
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jan 9 @ 3:08 PM ET
Here’s what a Seabrook buyout next June would result in:


- walleyeb1




The really sad part when you look at it is that Seabrook is making $9mil this year and the way the contract is structured with signing bonus and salary fluctuations makes a buyout pointless.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Jan 9 @ 3:08 PM ET
EDIT: The information below is in response to a buyout, not a mutual termination. Still valuable information but I realize it's different than what you are referring to, however similar in the way that a player does not have a choice if a team decides to terminate his contract.

I don't think the players association has any say.

Keeping in mind that teams can only buy three players out during the entirety of the current CBA, as long as they have a buyout remaining here's what happens:

1. The buyout window opens either 2 days after the Stanley Cup is awarded or on June 15th, whichever is later. It closes on June 30th.

2. Once the team has decided they want to buy a player out, they notify him and place him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of buyout.

3. Player clears unconditional waivers.

4. Buyout occurs. With players under 26 years old, they are paid 1/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.

Players over 26 are paid 2/3 of their remaining salary over twice the time of the remaining time on the contract.

- Hawks_49


Seabrook has a cap hit of $6.875M through 2023-24 (5 more seasons after this season). A buyout of Seabrook would mean the Hawks will have 2/3 of his cap hit ($4.58M) on the books for the next 10 seasons. That doesn't seem like a good option for the Hawks.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jan 9 @ 3:10 PM ET
Seabrook has a cap hit of $6.875M through 2023-24 (5 more seasons after this season). A buyout of Seabrook would mean the Hawks will have 2/3 of his cap hit ($4.58M) on the books for the next 10 seasons. That doesn't seem like a good option for the Hawks.
- EbonyRaptor


I don't think a buyout is a logical option right now, either.

I expect the owners will try to get the option for "free" buyouts again in the next CBA, and that Seabrook will be one of the Hawks players to be bought out at that time.
vshun
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Potomac Falls, VA
Joined: 06.04.2015

Jan 9 @ 3:15 PM ET
TBL was similar this season with only Stamkos and Hedman at the high end (but still not $10mil+), but they are going to be in a bind next season when contracts of Kucherov, Gourde and McDonagh jump significantly and Point is up for a new contract. The following year they will also have to make a decision on Vasilevskiy who will be due a significant raise.
- TheTrob

I think Lightning are well set, they have some expiring multimillion vetetans contracts such as Coburn/Stralman/Girardi/Callahan off the books next year(replaced with someone on ELC), to give appropriate contract to Point.

Caps and Pens are also managing their cap situation pretty well, though after watching last Pens game I have doubts Rutherford managing last 2 years well getting Brassard and Johnson for Sheary and Co, those 2 new players are a liability. and he should have kept Bonino as third line center instead.

Seeing other GMs succeed to keep most of the team intact like my local team Caps signing Oshie for 5mln, Carlson and Kuznetsov for 8mln makes me shake my head at inept contracts handed by our GM. Seabrook contract is close to Carlson contract, does anyone think he will perform at the level close to Carlson or Hedman?
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jan 9 @ 3:19 PM ET
Not enough return. You would needs picks or prospect to go with Kadri.
Aim high. Ask for Nylander.

- TheTrob



I heard be careful on Nylander, has been dog poop since he signed his contract.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Jan 9 @ 3:21 PM ET
Not enough return. You would needs picks or prospect to go with Kadri.
Aim high. Ask for Nylander.

- TheTrob


Personally, I don't think Nylander is aiming high.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jan 9 @ 3:23 PM ET
I don't think a buyout is a logical option right now, either.

I expect the owners will try to get the option for "free" buyouts again in the next CBA, and that Seabrook will be one of the Hawks players to be bought out at that time.

- Hawks_49


There is a good chance Seabrook will retire or end up on LTIR before his contract is over, so I agree with you that a buyout may not make sense. There is so much unknown about what will come out of the next CBA or when it will come.

The NHL can decide to opt out by Sept 1 2019 and the NHLPA can by Sept 19 2019. So basically, we will know a lot more about when the CBA expires before next season starts. If either side opts out, then next season is the last one under the current CBA.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jan 9 @ 3:29 PM ET
There is a good chance Seabrook will retire or end up on LTIR before his contract is over, so I agree with you that a buyout may not make sense. There is so much unknown about what will come out of the next CBA or when it will come.

The NHL can decide to opt out by Sept 1 2019 and the NHLPA can by Sept 19 2019. So basically, we will know a lot more about when the CBA expires before next season starts. If either side opts out, then next season is the last one under the current CBA.

- breadbag


LTIR - maybe.

But he's due to make cash of $7.5-$5.0-$6.0-$5.0-$4.5 through the end of his deal.

He ain't retiring.
Savetheembers33
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.23.2017

Jan 9 @ 3:30 PM ET
I don't think a buyout is a logical option right now, either.

I expect the owners will try to get the option for "free" buyouts again in the next CBA, and that Seabrook will be one of the Hawks players to be bought out at that time.

- Hawks_49


Bingo. Either that and he will be resigned (if he has anything left) extremely cheap or he he will end up in Seattle
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