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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Blackhawks Lose A Barn Burner
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EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Sep 26 @ 11:47 AM ET
It seemed to me that Detroit was quicker overall last night and the Hawks slower (or rusty) players didn't handle it well. Detroit's forecheck was pretty effective and caused some terrible turnovers resulting in goals.

For me, some of the luster has come off Kampf. I didn't think he played very well last night. He's game but he gets out-quicked and that happened last night which is why he wasn't as noticeable as he had been previously. Johnson seems quicker to me and that might be the deciding factor between them (plus I think he's better at finishing plays than Kampf).
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Sep 26 @ 11:50 AM ET
Sure they are secondary stats. “Underlying” stats are by definition secondary stats. That is why they are “underlying.” The only reason anyone called them “advanced” was to give them credibility that they did not inherently deserve. It was self-serving - a name created by people benefitting. It is like “capology” that requires a “capologist.” The “cap” is less challenging than balancing a monthly house budget.

Also I never said to ignore these stats. I said they can SOMETIMES give additional information on a certain player but only when such analysis is tied to common-sense.

Regarding Keith and McDavid I am simply right. Keith babysitted for the first time and it ate him alive. Now as a by-product of that he had secondary stats unseen before. +/- itself is actually an interesting stat. A D-Man can actually play well and be dragged into a poor +/- by the poor play of his partner. In the same way a D-Man may have a great +/- due in large part to the exemplary play of his partner. Players have even lead the NHL in +/- while not being truly deserving. Regarding McDavid I don’t have to read into his stats at all. He scored the vast majority of his points in meaningless games. Whatever deficiencies or positives the Oilers had as a team existed throughout the season. The issue that changed was the meaningfulness of the games. The great McDavid may find his superman status questioned sooner than later as he was not impactful for Canada at the 2018 Worlds’ either. He was certainly not Canada’s best player.

- Z3Hawk
Maybe we're just not going to agree semantically, but secondary to me implies something not directly linked to the player, which is not always the case. Depends on the stats - some are line/team based but things like micro/event stats are individual in most ways.

Advanced was not applied to give credibility - it was because the definition of advanced is "far on or ahead in development or progress" and "new and not yet generally accepted". New stats that are beyond current acceptance of stats. That's it. It wasn't even coined by the statisticians lol.

Considering how many people don't understand cap and contract rules that are life-long hockey fans, I think you're underestimating what goes into cap management. If not, I guess you should be applying to the position since it would be easy money for you.

And last, I don't understand why you bring up +/- as if it's considered useful for individual assessment by anyone who cares about legit stats. I'd discuss more, but it's a wasted effort to do so with anyone who thinks they're just "simply right". So, have a good day.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 11:53 AM ET
I really like your assessment and breakdown of each goal, Breadbag. I am tough on goalies because it is so tough, we also have one of the top three in Crow, when healthy. I know it was Ward, but I take this view on goalies. Goalies are the biggest line of defense, not only, but biggest. When it comes to pk, they have to be the best pk'ers. Breakaways, they got to be there too. The team around must help out with sticks, takeaways, blocked shots, maybe even a good, necessary penalty. That's a lot for slower vets, that's a lot for kids, that's a lot for the guys who just do offense. It may not go perfect, sometimes a stick or leg in the way just causes a deflection, and the goalie has to be there. Stonewall and all.

I am or might be over-critical, fine I accept that. I know that goals will happen, and I accept that. Sometimes the goalie is out of position, misread, bad pass, etc. I feel Ward could have been better, his team was helping, maybe not always because I saw a game of 14 goals, and it could have been higher. There were goals I don't hang on him, typical goals I allow for to have a game, but I criticize him for a majority.

Howard was awful also, he let in 6, maybe not 6 on 15 shots. Also, when have the hawks been known to fight in either goal crease? Very little. Most times the hawks have to cleanly beat the goalie or a fly-by screen. Park your butt in the blue, right? We get beat a lot because or d watches the goalie do his job while teams do what we won't. That's our system. Wrong, I think. I put more weight on the goalie, he deserves it, but also because of our system.
Thoroldbhawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , ON
Joined: 02.03.2017

Sep 26 @ 11:57 AM ET
Hello Saad? Anybody home? Effin brutal last night. what's his deal? Miss Columbus?
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 11:58 AM ET
I'm not saying that, GPHawksfan. They have to earn it. That was in that block quote you decided to write about. I also mentioned Kahun, but that was because of contract negotians, which are now his right to use and fall back on to play in Germany. I'm fine with healthy competition. I don't like he gives some a chance and some greater chances when they did the same amount of great performance on the ice. I'm saying Q looks at his 50 whatever roster with the idea of vets go here and here, taking all but a couple spots, and then the kids get the scraps. Kids fight other kids for spots, when everyone should have to fight for a spot. Why is everyone a lock, out side of the big 4?
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 26 @ 11:59 AM ET
It seemed to me that Detroit was quicker overall last night and the Hawks slower (or rusty) players didn't handle it well. Detroit's forecheck was pretty effective and caused some terrible turnovers resulting in goals.

For me, some of the luster has come off Kampf. I didn't think he played very well last night. He's game but he gets out-quicked and that happened last night which is why he wasn't as noticeable as he had been previously. Johnson seems quicker to me and that might be the deciding factor between them (plus I think he's better at finishing plays than Kampf).

- EbonyRaptor



thepld
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sin Bin
Joined: 04.18.2017

Sep 26 @ 12:03 PM ET
Was at the game last night. Two words. Terrible hockey. I know it's still preseason but this team is not good. Schmaltz...the kid needs to shoot the puck. I was high on him but he's starting to drive me insane with his dishes when he should be shooting. Boqvist...not close. Totally walked on the 7th goal. He can skate and control the puck in his end but he needs way more time. He will be good. Still think we shoulda went for Wahlstrom. Kunitz is done. Looked like he was going through the motions. Toews looked ok actually....against an equally bad Wings team. Ward. Aweful. Fortin was by far the best player and also love Highmore. Kid can skate. But man, Hawks are bad. They won't need to "tank" cause they'll be in last place. Bring on Jack Hughes and in 5 years we'll be back to the playoffs. At least I'll be able to get tickets now that the Cubs fans will stop going.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 26 @ 12:04 PM ET
I'm not saying that, GPHawksfan. They have to earn it. That was in that block quote you decided to write about. I also mentioned Kahun, but that was because of contract negotians, which are now his right to use and fall back on to play in Germany. I'm fine with healthy competition. I don't like he gives some a chance and some greater chances when did the same amount of great performance on the ice. I'm saying Q looks at his 50 whatever roster with the idea of vets go here and her, taking all but a couple spots, and then the kids get the scraps. Kids fight other kids for spots, when everyone should have to fight for a spot. Why is everyone a lock, out side of the big 4?
- I Am The Breadman


Maybe Q is accurately concluding that few if any of these kids are even close to ready.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Sep 26 @ 12:05 PM ET
I did my assessment through and after, but great write-up, J-Lowe. It is great getting another set of eyes on what happened, good or bad.

Seeing the whole kid line go down at once sucks. 2 of those 3 were great last night. Ejdsell was not. Fortin got ripped off, he should have been given a penalty shot. Q designs his roster, it seems to me, like they are already set in stone. All kids go down, minus Johnson who earned it. I think Kahun earned his spot, but he got a big chance after chance after chance becayse he could be in Germany. I still say he earned it, but got better opportunities. Vets, they have their spots. Really, who is holding their breath with anticipation for Martinsen? Give me a break. The Q loyalty is in high effect.

- I Am The Breadman


Kahun got a chance or the better opportunity because his skill set translates better to playing in the top 6 than any of those other guys and yes he earned the look.

Q has his faults but not sure what he’s supposed to do there...maybe play Sikura, but I wouldn’t mind Sikura working with Colliton at least for a spell in RFD.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Sep 26 @ 12:07 PM ET
Maybe Q is accurately concluding that few if any of these kids are even close to ready.
- Return of the Roar


I would disagree that they aren’t “even close” but have no problem with a number of them going back to cut their teeth in RFD, London, wherever.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 26 @ 12:09 PM ET
Maybe we're just not going to agree semantically, but secondary to me implies something not directly linked to the player, which is not always the case. Depends on the stats - some are line/team based but things like micro/event stats are individual in most ways.

Advanced was not applied to give credibility - it was because the definition of advanced is "far on or ahead in development or progress" and "new and not yet generally accepted". New stats that are beyond current acceptance of stats. That's it. It wasn't even coined by the statisticians lol.

Considering how many people don't understand cap and contract rules that are life-long hockey fans, I think you're underestimating what goes into cap management. If not, I guess you should be applying to the position since it would be easy money for you.

And last, I don't understand why you bring up +/- as if it's considered useful for individual assessment by anyone who cares about legit stats. I'd discuss more, but it's a wasted effort to do so with anyone who thinks they're just "simply right". So, have a good day.

- L_B_R


Oh a lot of posters on this board figure Stanbo manages the salary cap at the same time as he is writing out his family's weekly grocery requirements. Very simple for multi-taskers. I think he will acquire Calvin Pickard right after he writes down Dijon mustard on his grocery list.

I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:10 PM ET
Maybe Q is accurately concluding that few if any of these kids are even close to ready.
- Return of the Roar


Everyone had the same criticisms of Boq so far. Good but shakey, a couple years down the road, he will be great. He's not in the OHL yet. He's done better than manning. Good comparison right? How come some get shorter measuring sticks? You don't have the answer, I don't, and many others don't. Q plays favorites, that's all I'm saying. Healthy competition is healthy when the same standards are held for by all.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Sep 26 @ 12:13 PM ET
Don't forget the long-term effects of the "new found cap space" - it doesn't all have to be used this season - some for AdB and Schmaltz, some for maybe better / more long term UFAs going forward - hopefully, there is a plan for the future that allows for spending as much as is needed to get this franchise back to the top.

As for the 6.25MM - who cares - doesn't effect what they can do going forward (only Manning's contract extends after this season) or what they want to do for this season. Question is only - can Ward, Manning, Kunitz be helpful this season or not - what they are being paid is irrelevant at this point.

I think we should stop worrying about caps and cap hits and Toews / Kane's 10.5MM and Seabrooks "bad" deal - again, question is, can they be contributors through the remainders of their contracts or not. The Hawks seem to be in at least a decent position with cap space for now and for the next couple of years Maybe....

- StLBravesFan


Not sure why people are worried about a bunch of one year placeholder deals...Kunitz, Kruger, Rutta and Ward are all UFA’s next year and can add $9m back in terms of Cap Space...praise be...
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:15 PM ET
Kahun got a chance or the better opportunity because his skill set translates better to playing in the top 6 than any of those other guys and yes he earned the look.

Q has his faults but not sure what he’s supposed to do there...maybe play Sikura, but I wouldn’t mind Sikura working with Colliton at least for a spell in RFD.

- HawkintheD


His contract didn't hurt him either. Fortin has a good skill set. When was Sikura's last game, that terrible outing when he was lined up with his brother, probably another Det loss? He gets another chance?

I know a lot of posters say play the kids, he needs to be on the roster. I'm on the fence until I see a good product, all nights of games, I'm on here complimenting kids. Good plays, whatever. Making their cases as to why I want them, maybe not where, I'm not good with lines and pairings. I guess it is good I'm not the coach.
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Sep 26 @ 12:16 PM ET
Not sure why people are worried about a bunch of one year placeholder deals...Kunitz, Kruger, Rutta and Ward are all UFA’s next year and can add $9m back in terms of Cap Space...praise be...
- HawkintheD


Worried? No way. As long as DK can play 28 to 32 minutes the Hawks are golden.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:17 PM ET
I would disagree that they aren’t “even close” but have no problem with a number of them going back to cut their teeth in RFD, London, wherever.
- HawkintheD


Some do benefit from Colliton, I like him a lot. Most are not close, I will admit. There are some gems in Rockford, that I am not against having up now. Our prospect pool is so much better than it has been in awhile.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 26 @ 12:19 PM ET
Everyone had the same criticisms of Boq so far. Good but shakey, a couple years down the road, he will be great. He's not in the OHL yet. He's done better than manning. Good comparison right? How come some get shorter measuring sticks? You don't have the answer, I don't, and many others don't. Q plays favorites, that's all I'm saying. Healthy competition is healthy when the same standards are held for by all.
- I Am The Breadman


I think a plausible explanation is simply this - "I am Q, I won three cups for you with a system I am confident can continue to work. So, Stan, get me players to fill those roles and we can win again."

Stan says "Q, we have limited cap space to work with, and we have drafted some talent we project to be able to fill those spots, so as coach, it is on you to develop these guys."

Q says "Stan, I gave them a shot and I just don;t think they are ready yet."

Stan then goes dumpster diving and signs guys like Kunitz. So Q plays them and things continue on until some rookies show some spark.

I think Kahun and Kampf stick because they just might be able to. The rest are at least a year of lower league time away.
Hockeygirl222
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 09.26.2016

Sep 26 @ 12:21 PM ET
When I was at the Traverse City at the tournament I keep saying none of these players are ready for the NHL.
Boqvist is a year away as is Jokiharju. The only forward that I thought had a chance was Fortin he has the speed for the pro game.
I know everyone wishes and hopes that Sikura or Ejdsell make it but they are not ready also. None of the other defensemen there were even close.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Sep 26 @ 12:24 PM ET
I believe Forsberg should be the opening night goalie ,and play the rest of the preseason also .. Ward is there to pick up the pieces if Forsberg falters ,as he did in Carolina with Darling .

Have not been impressed at all with Stan veteran additions so far ,they may just need sometime to fall in line .But at this point that is not a good thing . Really what is Stan to do as anyone he brings in if not 35 plus Coach Q never or rarely like or plays .. The disconnect between the coach and FO has been evident for sometime and need to be addressed one way or another ASAP or this team will be in tank mode by early November ..
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Sep 26 @ 12:24 PM ET
His contract didn't hurt him either. Fortin has a good skill set. When was Sikura's last game, that terrible outing when he was lined up with his brother, probably another Det loss? He gets another chance?

I know a lot of posters say play the kids, he needs to be on the roster. I'm on the fence until I see a good product, all nights of games, I'm on here complimenting kids. Good plays, whatever. Making their cases as to why I want them, maybe not where, I'm not good with lines and pairings. I guess it is good I'm not the coach.

- I Am The Breadman


It didn’t hurt him but neither has his play...hence the look.

It’s been posted before, but bears repeating. How many of the Utes that Q has supposedly run out of town have achieved stardom or even been everyday NHL players for that matter. I count no stars, a couple good players and a couple useful ones.

The Q hates kids is a tired tale that is largely untrue.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Sep 26 @ 12:25 PM ET
Worried? No way. As long as DK can play 28 to 32 minutes the Hawks are golden.
- Beaver-Warrior


Keith was minus 30 last year and if the play of 2+7 last night was any indication of things to come....this team is bound for the basement of the league. Gunna be a long year but I think we all can enjoy watching the games if they score 4+ most nights....even if they give up 6+
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:25 PM ET
I think a plausible explanation is simply this - "I am Q, I won three cups for you with a system I am confident can continue to work. So, Stan, get me players to fill those roles and we can win again."

Stan says "Q, we have limited cap space to work with, and we have drafted some talent we project to be able to fill those spots, so as coach, it is on you to develop these guys."

Q says "Stan, I gave them a shot and I just don;t think they are ready yet."

Stan then goes dumpster diving and signs guys like Kunitz. So Q plays them and things continue on until some rookies show some spark.

I think Kahun and Kampf stick because they just might be able to. The rest are at least a year of lower league time away.

- Return of the Roar


You lose me at "give a shot," but I won't carry it out any further. I'll let go of what is out of my control. I will watch every game still, but I'm going to complain like fans do.

Kampf earned a spot last year and stayed after being a call up. He did great to make sure he never lost the throne.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 26 @ 12:29 PM ET
You lose me at "give a shot," but I won't carry it out any further. I'll let go of what is out of my control. I will watch every game still, but I'm going to complain like fans do.

Kampf earned a spot last year and stayed after being a call up. He did great to make sure he never lost the throne.

- I Am The Breadman


I hear ya. As much as some might like to malign Q, at some point, decades of successful coaching experience might offer a bit sharper talent eye than us La-Z-Boy GMs will ever have.

And this is coming from a guy who wishes Q would redesign a scheme that plays to what he does and doesn't have today.
hereismike1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 09.06.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:30 PM ET
Everyone had the same criticisms of Boq so far. Good but shakey, a couple years down the road, he will be great. He's not in the OHL yet. He's done better than manning. Good comparison right? How come some get shorter measuring sticks? You don't have the answer, I don't, and many others don't. Q plays favorites, that's all I'm saying. Healthy competition is healthy when the same standards are held for by all.
- I Am The Breadman



You wouldn't keep Boq over Manning even if he is better than Manning right now, because you take into account where they are in their respective careers. Manning is what he is, Boq is on a development path to becoming something significant, unless you screw that up by playing him at a level he is not ready for yet and stunt his growth.

Many careers in hockey never became what they could have been by being rushed to the NHL. Boq is a slight guy too who has had concussion issues.
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 26 @ 12:32 PM ET
It didn’t hurt him but neither has his play...hence the look.

It’s been posted before, but bears repeating. How many of the Utes that Q has supposedly run out of town have achieved stardom or even been everyday NHL players for that matter. I count no stars, a couple good players and a couple useful ones.

The Q hates kids is a tired tale that is largely untrue.

- HawkintheD


What are Utes? Not trying to be snippy or sarcastic, just genuinely asking.

I never said hate, I had this discussion a few days ago and LBR chimed in and gave clarity to the viewpoint. Q give unfair chances is what I am saying. Kahun did play well, I never said anything against that. I said his contract earned him another look added with his play.

As far as stars gone, I wouldn't mind Buff or TT BACK. This is a thought, no credence or anything, just a question. Maybe the players we lost, who weren't good here or weren't good anywhere, maybe they just aren't good? Maybe we drafted stinkers?
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