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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Week That Shaped a Team
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RaleighHawk
Joined: 03.29.2016

Sep 25 @ 7:41 AM ET
Likely changes from opening night 2017

G - Crow out - Ward In - Downgrade
D - Kempny Out - Joki in - Push at best given his inexperience
D - Forsling Out - Gus In - Push
D - Murphy Out - Manning In - Push
F - Hartman Out - Kahun - Push to tiny upgrade
F - Kero Out - Kruger - Slight upgrade
F - Panik Out - Kunitz - Slight downgrade
F - Sharp Out - Kampf - Push to slight downgrade
F - Bouma Out - ???? Martinsen, Johnson, Sikura - Slight upgrade

Holdovers - AA, ADB, Kane, Keith, Saad, Schmaltz, Seabs, Toews
Probable holdovers - Rutta and Hayden

This is based on Rutta being able to go and the Hawks making the right decision with Boqvist to let him play a season in Juniors.

Ugh!

- -Doh-


The first one should be massive downgrade. Ugh is right.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Sep 25 @ 8:11 AM ET
Likely changes from opening night 2017

G - Crow out - Ward In - Downgrade
D - Kempny Out - Joki in - Push at best given his inexperience
D - Forsling Out - Gus In - Push
D - Murphy Out - Manning In - Push
F - Hartman Out - Kahun - Push to tiny upgrade
F - Kero Out - Kruger - Slight upgrade
F - Panik Out - Kunitz - Slight downgrade
F - Sharp Out - Kampf - Push to slight downgrade
F - Bouma Out - ???? Martinsen, Johnson, Sikura - Slight upgrade

Holdovers - AA, ADB, Kane, Keith, Saad, Schmaltz, Seabs, Toews
Probable holdovers - Rutta and Hayden

This is based on Rutta being able to go and the Hawks making the right decision with Boqvist to let him play a season in Juniors.

Ugh!

- -Doh-


I don't agree with most of your assessments.

Ward a huge downgrade from Crawford, but an upgrade over Forsberg, et. al.
Joki even at this point is an upgrade defensively over Kempny, possibly a big upgrade.
Gus/Forsling - Push
Murphy/Manning - downgrade
Hartman/Kahun - upgrade to big upgrade
Kero/Kruger - big upgrade
Panik/Kunitz - push
Sharp/Kampf - push to slight upgrade
Bouma - upgrade to big upgrade.



fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Sep 25 @ 9:46 AM ET
I wasn't creating a narrative. That is what was reported when he was on Columbus. If TOI stats say otherwise then he wasn't demoted much. You can have all the nice fancy stats you want but at the end of the day it is about production in the top 6.

Saad was brought back to play with Toews and help that line drive possession and produce. Saad also started 60% of his 5 on 5 shifts in the Ozone. That helps the fancy stats. If it was a player not named Saad or Toews half the board would crucify him. Saad had a horrible year period.

Anisimov had the same production as Saad last year. Played PK too if I recall and started 53% of his shifts in the Ozone. People want to run him out of town. As far as I am concerned he had a much more productive year then Saad all things considered.

- bhawks2241


Now you're just picking stats. One could also say that AA only had 8 even strength goals and was underwater possession wise. Saad had 17 ES goals.

Saad had a poor year shooting percentage that you hope is an arbitration. Otherwise he was solid in just about every other area.

It was a weird year overall for the team and this looks like it will be an interesting one to say the least especially with how difficult the first month looks on paper.

I wouldn't read into the preseason games too much. Going to take about 20 games (again) to figure out what this team is or isn't.
SoftServe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.19.2016

Sep 25 @ 9:50 AM ET
"Kahun was born in the Czech Republic and began skating when he was 3. "

Explains why his skating looks so effortless out there now.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Sep 25 @ 10:05 AM ET
Whether you call them “fancy” stats or not doesn’t change anything. Nor does calling them the ridiculous name “advanced” stats. What they are and have always been are secondary stats, supporting stats. They should NEVER carry the day. They are NEVER primary stats. They can be used to add information concerning a player SOMETIMES but only when it makes common sense to do so.

For example why did Keith struggle for the first time in a decade last year? You can say all you want about Keith’s “advanced” stats but they do nothing to explain his terrible +/-. Keith struggled because for the first time he wasn’t protected by a quality D-Man. No Hammer, No Seabrook. Keith has always been allowed to be a “Rover”. Last year for the first time he was babysitting his D partners who were constantly out of position. I have used this argument for years to defend Seabrook who has constantly babysitted over the last number of years. I have previously even said “What would happen if Keith had to babysit?” Well we saw exactly what would happen last year. Keith’s head and game exploded.

I can give scores of other examples. Secondary stats are to a great degee meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. There are times that they can provide additional information but again only when it makes sense to do so. There are simply so many issues that potentially have influence. There are actually primary stats that can become meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. Take McDavid last year - he won the scoring title but so what? He scored the vast majority of his points in meaningless games after the Oilers were out of the play-off race. When games counted he was not impactful.

No fan should become a slave to statistics, especially secondary ones.

- Z3Hawk


Keith struggled because he had to play with Jordan Freakin Osterle for most of the year. It has also taken him longer to recover from his knee injury but it seemed like he was moving better at the end of the year.

Abhorrent goaltending also played into his poor +\-.

The advanced stats over a significant number of games are fairly reliable in predicting success and pointing out deficiencies. Certainly more so than +\-. Though shot shares aren't as significant if shooting percentage is mediocre.

If you want to be a real pain in the ass the only stat that matters is scoring more goals in a given game than the other team.

McDavid is the best player in the world and his team not winning is because he can't skate 60 mins per night. Their defense and goaltending are abhorrent. Apparently those things matter. Using common sense - that would be clear.
67hawks
Joined: 08.30.2012

Sep 25 @ 10:46 AM ET
Keith struggled because he had to play with Jordan Freakin Osterle for most of the year. It has also taken him longer to recover from his knee injury but it seemed like he was moving better at the end of the year.

Abhorrent goaltending also played into his poor +\-.

The advanced stats over a significant number of games are fairly reliable in predicting success and pointing out deficiencies. Certainly more so than +\-. Though shot shares aren't as significant if shooting percentage is mediocre.

If you want to be a real pain in the ass the only stat that matters is scoring more goals in a given game than the other team.

McDavid is the best player in the world and his team not winning is because he can't skate 60 mins per night. Their defense and goaltending are abhorrent. Apparently those things matter. Using common sense - that would be clear.

- fattybeef


A good common sense analysis. I do not believe in this advanced stats crappola while analyzing a player's performance. If you are playing on a good team, you will look better and vice versa.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Sep 25 @ 10:46 AM ET
Now you're just picking stats. One could also say that AA only had 8 even strength goals and was underwater possession wise. Saad had 17 ES goals.

Saad had a poor year shooting percentage that you hope is an arbitration. Otherwise he was solid in just about every other area.

It was a weird year overall for the team and this looks like it will be an interesting one to say the least especially with how difficult the first month looks on paper.

I wouldn't read into the preseason games too much. Going to take about 20 games (again) to figure out what this team is or isn't.

- fattybeef



I was cherry picking stats in response to the "advance stats" argument that Saad had a good season except for his shooting %. He had a terrible year period. He didnt look good on the ice and had no puck control for long stretches of the year.

He had 7 pts in his first 4 games. That means in the other 78 games he had 28 pts. That is 3rd line production at best. Blame it on poor luck with shooting % if you want to but he had a horrible year. It wasn't because of luck.
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Sep 25 @ 11:29 AM ET


Time to bring back B52!
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Sep 25 @ 12:14 PM ET
Gee.. Hawks can finally add Smith. LOL


Darren Dreger

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Ottawa places Zack Smith on waivers.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Sep 25 @ 12:42 PM ET
Gee.. Hawks can finally add Smith. LOL


Darren Dreger

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Ottawa places Zack Smith on waivers.

- mrpaulish


Looks like the Sens tried to move him (I heard the Hawks were interested at one point last year) but his salary and term isn't ideal.

Still a little surprised he is being sent down.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 25 @ 12:52 PM ET
Looks like the Sens tried to move him (I heard the Hawks were interested at one point last year) but his salary and term isn't ideal.

Still a little surprised he is being sent down.

- Justin Lowe


$3.25MM x 3 years left not a bad price for a 30+ point guy who wins faceoffs and plays with a little attitude....

Especially when compared to Kruger at $2.75 ish
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 25 @ 12:53 PM ET
Looks like the Sens tried to move him (I heard the Hawks were interested at one point last year) but his salary and term isn't ideal.

Still a little surprised he is being sent down.

- Justin Lowe

Once the Senators prospect centers Logan Brown and Colin White mature and hit their potential, they will have great center depth with those two, Duchene, Pageau, and Tierney. Living in the Bay Area, I get to see Sharks games on TV and Tierney is great on faceoffs, strong two-way player, and decent secondary scoring.
Slofire94
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: CA
Joined: 01.17.2016

Sep 25 @ 12:55 PM ET
$3.25MM x 3 years left not a bad price for a 30+ point guy who wins faceoffs and plays with a little attitude....

Especially when compared to Kruger at $2.75 ish

- Return of the Roar




Maybe the Sens would swap the two? Kruger makes less in real dollars than his cap hit
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 25 @ 1:01 PM ET
https://thehockeynews.com...review-chicago-blackhawks

The Hockey News is in the midst of their season preview series and today they featured the Blackhawks. Predicted to finish last in the Central Division. Each article includes a projected lineup. Here is what they project:

Saad - Toews - DeBrincat
Schmaltz - Anisimov - Kane
Kunitz - Kruger - Hayden
Sikura - Kampf - Schroeder
Depth: Fortin, Edjsell, Highmore

Keith - Seabrook
Gustafsson - Rutta
Manning - Jokijarju
Depth: Hillman, Carlsson
Injured: Forsling, Murphy

Ward
Forsberg
Injured: Crawford
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 25 @ 1:01 PM ET


Maybe the Sens would swap the two? Kruger makes less in real dollars than his cap hit

- Slofire94


But, of course, Kruger has a modified NTC. I doubt he would consent to go to the crapstorm in OTT
Abadseed
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Arlington hts, IL
Joined: 01.20.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:37 PM ET
But, of course, Kruger has a modified NTC. I doubt he would consent to go to the crapstorm in OTT
- Return of the Roar



Doesn’t matter at 6’2/ 212 he’s over stanbos height and weight limits
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:41 PM ET
A good common sense analysis. I do not believe in this advanced stats crappola while analyzing a player's performance. If you are playing on a good team, you will look better and vice versa.
- 67hawks

That last part isn't always true - Bollig's individual stats were bad on a stacked Hawks team, for ex, and OEL and Karlsson have had stellar stats on horrible teams. But quality of team is why context and relative stats exist and are useful. Can't just look at shot metrics and call it day - need to look into other events as well.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:42 PM ET
Gee.. Hawks can finally add Smith. LOL


Darren Dreger

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Ottawa places Zack Smith on waivers.

- mrpaulish


TSN: Matt Duchene says Zack Smith being waived today "is a kick in the balls for us in this locker room"
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Sep 25 @ 1:49 PM ET
Doesn’t matter at 6’2/ 212 he’s over stanbos height and weight limits
- Abadseed


So

True
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:51 PM ET
I was cherry picking stats in response to the "advance stats" argument that Saad had a good season except for his shooting %. He had a terrible year period. He didnt look good on the ice and had no puck control for long stretches of the year.

He had 7 pts in his first 4 games. That means in the other 78 games he had 28 pts. That is 3rd line production at best. Blame it on poor luck with shooting % if you want to but he had a horrible year. It wasn't because of luck.

- bhawks2241

So to disprove that stats are useful, you misused stats? All that does is make it look like you don't understand stats which is why you don't like them.

I don't personally care if someone likes/trusts/believes in advanced stats, they're not for everyone, but to deliberately misuse them doesn't make stats look bad, it make the user look bad.
SaskHawkFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: SK
Joined: 05.18.2014

Sep 25 @ 1:55 PM ET
TSN: Matt Duchene says Zack Smith being waived today "is a kick in the balls for us in this locker room"
- walleyeb1


I was fortunate to get to meet Zack this summer great character guy. Pretty surprising move by the Sens.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 25 @ 1:57 PM ET
Gee.. Hawks can finally add Smith. LOL


Darren Dreger

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Ottawa places Zack Smith on waivers.

- mrpaulish



Stan!!!!!

bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Sep 25 @ 2:05 PM ET
Stan!!!!!


- DarthKane



doubt it...another player who's better days are behind him...not for 3.25 per over 3 yrs....
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Sep 25 @ 2:08 PM ET
So to disprove that stats are useful, you misused stats? All that does is make it look like you don't understand stats which is why you don't like them.

I don't personally care if someone likes/trusts/believes in advanced stats, they're not for everyone, but to deliberately misuse them doesn't make stats look bad, it make the user look bad.

- L_B_R


My point was that stats can be misused and skewed to support someones perspective or narrative.

Definitely not implying you were doing that at all but I watched a lot of Hawks games last year and Saad was bad.

Stats have there place and are useful but to say oh Saad was good last year look at his underlying advanced stats he just had a bad shooting % isn't accurate.

He regular old stats were horrible and his play for long stretches was horrible. You can't have a top line forward having multiple 7-8 game stretches where he doesn't dent the score sheet.

This Hawks roster isn't loaded with firepower like the cup years. Less depth means you need all your big guns producing. If they don't this team is in trouble again.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Sep 25 @ 2:23 PM ET
I was cherry picking stats in response to the "advance stats" argument that Saad had a good season except for his shooting %. He had a terrible year period. He didnt look good on the ice and had no puck control for long stretches of the year.

He had 7 pts in his first 4 games. That means in the other 78 games he had 28 pts. That is 3rd line production at best. Blame it on poor luck with shooting % if you want to but he had a horrible year. It wasn't because of luck.

- bhawks2241


That is just not an accurate statement. He did have a good year outside of shooting %.
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