I've heard they want to see what they have in these younger players and see if they can spark this team (including the core). It sounds like they are banking on that Vegas mentality in the sense that mostly everyone is counting them out.

They have a winning pedigree in the Hawks' dressing room still... but do they have the skill? I will evaluate that on Wednesday.
- Justin Lowe

Not sure that is a good mentality. News flash Hawks front office Vegas probably had the fastest team in the NHL last year and played hard every single game. I don't see this aged core giving it their all every game. Hawks aren't close to Vegas as far as team speed either.

Toews 6'2" 205lbs
Hossa 6'1 210lbs
Saad 6'1 205lbs
Sharp 6'1 200lbs
Handzus 6'5" 215lbs
Bryan Bickell 6'4" 225lbs
Vermette 6'1" 200lbs


Sikura 5'11 158lbs
Debrincat 5'7" 165lb
Schmaltz 6' 175lb
Kahun 5'11 175lbs
- EnzoD

You don't always need size to have some sandpaper. Some of those guys were on the bottom 6 who rotated through the top lines sometimes. Something Hayden and maybe Martinsen can handle.

Likely changes from opening night 2017

G - Crow out - Ward In - Downgrade
D - Kempny Out - Joki in - Push at best given his inexperience
D - Forsling Out - Gus In - Push
D - Murphy Out - Manning In - Push
F - Hartman Out - Kahun - Push to tiny upgrade
F - Kero Out - Kruger - Slight upgrade
F - Panik Out - Kunitz - Slight downgrade
F - Sharp Out - Kampf - Push to slight downgrade
F - Bouma Out - ???? Martinsen, Johnson, Sikura - Slight upgrade

Holdovers - AA, ADB, Kane, Keith, Saad, Schmaltz, Seabs, Toews
Probable holdovers - Rutta and Hayden

This is based on Rutta being able to go and the Hawks making the right decision with Boqvist to let him play a season in Juniors.

Ugh!

I wasn't creating a narrative. That is what was reported when he was on Columbus. If TOI stats say otherwise then he wasn't demoted much. You can have all the nice fancy stats you want but at the end of the day it is about production in the top 6.

Saad was brought back to play with Toews and help that line drive possession and produce. Saad also started 60% of his 5 on 5 shifts in the Ozone. That helps the fancy stats. If it was a player not named Saad or Toews half the board would crucify him. Saad had a horrible year period.

Anisimov had the same production as Saad last year. Played PK too if I recall and started 53% of his shifts in the Ozone. People want to run him out of town. As far as I am concerned he had a much more productive year then Saad all things considered.
- bhawks2241

I didn't say you created the narrative, I'm saying the narrative that was reported has little to not evidence to support it. Simply looking up TOI would have shown it to be not true.

Saad did not start 60% in the OZ unless you're someone who likes to ignore the existence of the neutral zone. I assume you don't, because no one should, so try using 3 zone splits instead. Saad started 35.97% in the OZ. Because you wanted to compare them, Anisimov started 35.33% in the OZ. Anisimov does have slightly higher DZS (33.69% vs 24.94% for Saad) because Q originally tried him as a checking line center but it really really didn't work.

And if you look deeper than just zone deployment, which you should always do when using stats to make an argument, you'll see that Q matched Toews/Saad on the fly more than he did Anisimov/Kane. This is partially why Saad has more NZS (39.09%) than any other zone (same with Toews) Q was more concerned about getting his top line out against the highest level of comp than he was about which zone they deployed it. Which is why the 4th line last year was useless - they took most of the DZS but against only the lowest QOC.

Anisimov/Kane, when together, were deliberately deployed in the OZS more than anywhere else (38.01% OZS with 3 zone split, 60.47% if you insist on two zone - Toews/Saad's three zone split is 31.22% and two zone split 56.41% for completion's sake).

Now, there is more to being good statistically, obvs, but they typically translate, esp at the numbers Saad was at last season. If you'd like, I can go into more detail on the micro stats like transition, passing, shot location, puck retrieval rates, etc etc, of which Saad was good to great at last season. I could then name between 8-10 players who have had down years (low sh%) followed by regression up because, you guessed it, their individual metrics were consistently strong. You need not look far for an example, since Hossa did it. It's not a guarantee of a positive regression, but it's probable. I offer because even if someone isn't super into stats, it's good to see what a player did do well and areas he might need to work on.

Half the board does crucify him and more than half do it to Toews. They even critique their eating habits. No one is safe lol.

PS. Please don't call them fancy stats - no one really does that anymore. That's not snark, it's just an old term.

I get it its the Rorschach test
I see a scorpion, Mickey Mouse, Owl, the big dipper, and a Question mark
- riozzo

you nailed it.

A huge part of puck possession is having the strength to fend off defenders along the boards and below the goal line in the O-zone. Hossa, Toews, Saad, and Sharp, Bickell, Vermette, Handzus, Frolik, Bolland, Ladd, Bfyuglien are not "goons" or guys who throw their body a ton, but they were both skilled AND strong on the puck. Sikura, Cat, Schmaltz, and Kahun have skill, but do not have the strength necessary to have the dominant o-zone cycle game that made the Hawks so good.

Hawks need more guys with the skill and size combo. This isn't the Euro league ice surface or playing style..which Stan Bowman seems to forget.
- EnzoD

The skills don't really cycle as that's not part of the game, save for Toews who likes to operate behind the net (although he no longer is the king of fending off defenders). The skills guys have the hands and feet to operate in open spaces and tries to avoid 50/50 puck placements along the boards. It is the 3 and 4th liners that forecheck, retrieve, and cycle because they have the body to do but more so is because they do not have the hands and feet say get the cycle puck off the wall into a dangerous scoring position/play. Don't get me wrong it would be great to have both traits in one but the Hawks are very limited and given where the game is going, I would always opt for the skill if on the bubble of one over the other. Another way to look at this scenario is this, if there was a game with just skills guys vs non-skill guys it would be a blowout. Yes, a mix is the answer.

Try reading Paul's post with your red font filter glasses on.
- Beaver-Warrior

I hate sarcastic posts.

Crawdaddy not ready for season per Q

https://www.thescore.com/...e-ready-for-season-opener
- mrpaulish

and this is a surprise...what a dumbass question: has not seen game action in 8 months, minimal to none workouts over the summer, he is working alone, no practice with the team, no preseason games but oh yeah he will be ready to go in G1...

I hate sarcastic posts.
- DarthKane

I didn't say you created the narrative, I'm saying the narrative that was reported has little to not evidence to support it. Simply looking up TOI would have shown it to be not true.

Saad did not start 60% in the OZ unless you're someone who likes to ignore the existence of the neutral zone. I assume you don't, because no one should, so try using 3 zone splits instead. Saad started 35.97% in the OZ. Because you wanted to compare them, Anisimov started 35.33% in the OZ. Anisimov does have slightly higher DZS (33.69% vs 24.94% for Saad) because Q originally tried him as a checking line center but it really really didn't work.

And if you look deeper than just zone deployment, which you should always do when using stats to make an argument, you'll see that Q matched Toews/Saad on the fly more than he did Anisimov/Kane. This is partially why Saad has more NZS (39.09%) than any other zone (same with Toews) Q was more concerned about getting his top line out against the highest level of comp than he was about which zone they deployed it. Which is why the 4th line last year was useless - they took most of the DZS but against only the lowest QOC.

Anisimov/Kane, when together, were deliberately deployed in the OZS more than anywhere else (38.01% OZS with 3 zone split, 60.47% if you insist on two zone - Toews/Saad's three zone split is 31.22% and two zone split 56.41% for completion's sake).

Now, if you'd like, I can go into more detail on the micro stats like transition, passing, shot location, puck retrieval rates, etc etc, of which Saad was good to great at last season. I could then name between 8-10 players who have had down years (low sh%) followed by regression up because, you guessed it, their individual metrics were consistently strong. You need not look far for an example, since Hossa did it. It's not a guarantee of a positive regression, but it's probable.

Half the board does crucify him and more than half do it to Toews. They even critique their eating habits, come on.

PS. Please don't call them fancy stats - no one really does that anymore. That's not snark, it's just an old term.
- L_B_R

Whether you call them “fancy” stats or not doesn’t change anything. Nor does calling them the ridiculous name “advanced” stats. What they are and have always been are secondary stats, supporting stats. They should NEVER carry the day. They are NEVER primary stats. They can be used to add information concerning a player SOMETIMES but only when it makes common sense to do so.

For example why did Keith struggle for the first time in a decade last year? You can say all you want about Keith’s “advanced” stats but they do nothing to explain his terrible +/-. Keith struggled because for the first time he wasn’t protected by a quality D-Man. No Hammer, No Seabrook. Keith has always been allowed to be a “Rover”. Last year for the first time he was babysitting his D partners who were constantly out of position. I have used this argument for years to defend Seabrook who has constantly babysitted over the last number of years. I have previously even said “What would happen if Keith had to babysit?” Well we saw exactly what would happen last year. Keith’s head and game exploded.

I can give scores of other examples. Secondary stats are to a great degee meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. There are times that they can provide additional information but again only when it makes sense to do so. There are simply so many issues that potentially have influence. There are actually primary stats that can become meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. Take McDavid last year - he won the scoring title but so what? He scored the vast majority of his points in meaningless games after the Oilers were out of the play-off race. When games counted he was not impactful.

No fan should become a slave to statistics, especially secondary ones.

Can’t see it being a message to Saad. He seemed to have worked very hard this off-season. Saad needs to be relied upon as a Beast who can drive a line. I’ve always said I have wanted Saad to play his off-wing Right Wing shooting Left. Easier to use his obvious strength to attack the net at an easier angle. Put him with Toews. Saad with Kane has the problem that Saad must play Left Wing shooting Left and cannot open up for one-timers which Kane loves - see Panarin. Schmaltz is a Left Wing who shoots Right so he can open up for one-timers. Takes more than that though as it is getting available for the one-timer that is the magic, what is most important.
- Z3Hawk

Being very good on the off-wing is not a natural. That's why the European Wings players from Europe who grew up on it were better and still are better, save for Kane. And also you had better be a snipe that can flat out finish. Debrincat can finish but does not look as comfortable on his off wing. Kaner can do it because of his skillset: hands (backhand hands to get inside on the forehand), feet, and decision-making. That said, I am not quite sure if Saad currently has the skill set for it and for as long as I remember he has always been a LW.

Whether you call them “fancy” stats or not doesn’t change anything. Nor does calling them the ridiculous name “advanced” stats. What they are and have always been are secondary stats, supporting stats. They should NEVER carry the day. They are NEVER primary stats. They can be used to add information concerning a player SOMETIMES but only when it makes common sense to do so.

For example why did Keith struggle for the first time in a decade last year? You can say all you want about Keith’s “advanced” stats but they do nothing to explain his terrible +/-. Keith struggled because for the first time he wasn’t protected by a quality D-Man. No Hammer, No Seabrook. Keith has always been allowed to be a “Rover”. Last year for the first time he was babysitting his D partners who were constantly out of position. I have used this argument for years to defend Seabrook who has constantly babysitted over the last number of years. I have previously even said “What would happen if Keith had to babysit?” Well we saw exactly what would happen last year. Keith’s head and game exploded.

I can give scores of other examples. Secondary stats are to a great degee meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. There are times that they can provide additional information but again only when it makes sense to do so. There are simply so many issues that potentially have influence. There are actually primary stats that can become meaningless when common-sense analysis is brought to bear. Take McDavid last year - he won the scoring title but so what? He scored the vast majority of his points in meaningless games after the Oilers were out of the play-off race. When games counted he was not impactful.

No fan should become a slave to statistics, especially secondary ones.
- Z3Hawk

These stats are not secondary - they're underlying, typically task/result based. Was there a shot on goal (location, type, situation), was there a pass (where did it come from, where did it go), was there zone entry/exit (carry in, pass, dump), was their a puck battle (location, success, situation), when and where a player is deployed, etc etc. They're "advanced" in that they're more than just counting stats, that's all. I typically shy away from that term as well - just stats and micro (passing, transition, etc).

But either way, they're literally just putting numbers to the events that naturally happen in hockey. Coaches have been breakdown plays for decades, how is it weird someone would want to quantify that? Lots of people on this board do this naturally in a more descriptive, qualitative way. They can tell you some of the what and why, give you a look at what happened, if you put them altogether and in addition to watching the game. No one should base their entire analysis off them, which no one (myself include) claims, but ignoring them completely is silly since you're leaving out a big chuck of usable info. Analysis of the stats can differ the same way opinions of just watching can differ.

Also disagree with your conclusion on Keith (and McDavid) but that's a debate I don't care to get into. You're allowed your opinion and I'm allowed mine, after all, and I've written enough novels for a bit.

I've heard they want to see what they have in these younger players and see if they can spark this team (including the core). It sounds like they are banking on that Vegas mentality in the sense that mostly everyone is counting them out.

They have a winning pedigree in the Hawks' dressing room still... but do they have the skill? I will evaluate that on Wednesday.
- Justin Lowe

While I think the Hawks will hopefully play with a fire lit under them to prove others wrong that the team is no longer a contender, I do question whether the coaching, strategies, and mentality will even be close to what Gallant and his staff pulled off with Vegas last year. Q wants to play relentless this year so that's at least a step in the right direction.

On the other hand, I'm also not 100 percent sold that Gallant has the magic formula to win or else the Panthers would've been Stanley Cup finalists when he coached them prior to his current gig. He has a lot of great things going on in Vegas but was that just a perfect storm that is tough to replicate consistently? Still a top coach regardless.

Likely changes from opening night 2017

G - Crow out - Ward In - Downgrade
D - Kempny Out - Joki in - Push at best given his inexperience
D - Forsling Out - Gus In - Push
D - Murphy Out - Manning In - Push
F - Hartman Out - Kahun - Push to tiny upgrade
F - Kero Out - Kruger - Slight upgrade
F - Panik Out - Kunitz - Slight downgrade
F - Sharp Out - Kampf - Push to slight downgrade
F - Bouma Out - ???? Martinsen, Johnson, Sikura - Slight upgrade

Holdovers - AA, ADB, Kane, Keith, Saad, Schmaltz, Seabs, Toews
Probable holdovers - Rutta and Hayden

This is based on Rutta being able to go and the Hawks making the right decision with Boqvist to let him play a season in Juniors.

Ugh!
- -Doh-

relentlessly the same team or worse

There woud not be much surprise if Bowman follows through and keeps Boqvist for at least nine NHL gp. This of course is not the best route for his developmentl as a hockey player. But also do not be surprised if orders from high up demand a very close scrutiny if Boqvist could help they now and not hinder his development.

Read between the lines though and know Boqvist represents excitement, a new face to replace the fading excitement and glamor Toews has been. Maybe also stirs some interest among season ticket holders who have cancelled or are on the brink of dropping out.

I would surmise, furthermore, that if Hillman was close to ready for an NHL start, he is one back up plan should Boqvist eventually be assigned to OHL London. Was Hillman deserving an early AHL assignment .....I do not know....but his demotion and the lack of any other kids ready fir prime time just opens the door to Boqvist experiment. I hope it is not Pandora's door....a curse upon the season.

Who knows long term this season, say Thanksgiving, that Davidson is playing in the bog show, Hillman is in Rockford and Boqvist is in London, Canada. But for now it is a jigsaw puzzle and the final pieces haven't been figured out.

There woud not be much surprise if Bowan follows through and keeps Bowvisy for at least nine NHL gp. This of course is not the best route for his eelopment as a hockey player. But also do not be surprised if orders from high up demand a very close critiny if Bowvist could help theyrsm now and not hinder his development.

Read between the lines though and know Boqvist represents excitement, a new face to replace the fading excitement and glamor Toews has been. Maybe also stirs some interest among season ticket holders who have cancelled or are on the brink of dropping out.

I would sitmise, furthermore, that if Hillman was close to ready for an NHL start, he is one back up plan should Bowvist eventually be assigned to OHL London

Who knows long term this season, say NY Thanksgiving, that Davidson is playing in the bog show, Hillman is in Rockford and Bowvist is in London, Canada. But for now it is a jigsaw puzzle and the final pieces haven't been figured out.
- jhawk59

Hillman will eventually earn a call up at some point this season but think Forsling (once he's off the DL) and Dahlstrom may be the first call ups.

Seems like these lines are temporary.

Q trying to send a message to guys like Hayden, Sikura, possibly Saad and Schmaltz. Although Kahun definitely and Johnson somewhat have made a case for themselves.

Q's strong side FO rationale makes sense theoretically. Now it has to be proven in reality. If it can get that "line" to 50% on draws or close to it, meh, OK.

Kahun's speed and 360 degree mobility is differentiating. Looks like he can make plays too.
- John Jaeckel

Agreed, JJ.

Looks like the lines were tweaked again this morning.

I'd like to see more out of both Sikura and Hayden, let's see if they get the message.

He was demoted to the 4th line in Columbus for a while if I remember. He absolutely stunk last year. He was brought in here to play with Toews and help Toews raise his game.

He can't do that on the 3rd line. Bottom line is Saad played like a borderline 2/3rd line player last year and did nothing to elevate Toews game or compliment it. The Hawks don't have enough top 6 forwards as-is. The Hawks don't have the proven forward depth to construct 3 scoring lines and a checking line like the cup years.
- bhawks2241

Here is his stats from CBJ. He may have sat and been bumped down but he still produced (there have been many players in the dog house in CBJ). His best season in Chi was 14/15 when he had 52 points.

2015-16 CBJ L GP 78 G 31 A 22 pts 53 TOI for both years just above 17mins
2016-17 82 24 29 53

Hillman will eventually earn a call up at some point this season but think Forsling (once he's off the DL) and Dahlstrom may be the first call ups.
- AEL_Fox

That is my guess as well.

I am already thinking the season after this. I want to see our #3 round Wise with Kane. Boqvist and Beaudin up before season end. Jokiharju must force Gus out. Unless Gus surprises us.

Also I suspect that Oeserle has limitations and teases as a fairly good offensive Dman in Arizona.. Then you find out he isn't too good, though not terrible

You don't always need size to have some sandpaper. Some of those guys were on the bottom 6 who rotated through the top lines sometimes. Something Hayden and maybe Martinsen can handle.
- Hawks_For_Life

We can at least hope for that. But I am curious to see how this relentless plays out.

I hate sarcastic posts.
- DarthKane

Of course you do.

FORWARDS
Saad - Toews - Debrincat - Toews has 20 to help in corners, 12 as sniper
Schmaltz - Anisimov - Kane - Best pair for 88 to take advantage of his skills
Kunitz - Kahun - Sikura - Kunitz can help mentor 2 skilled kids
Hayden - Kruger - Kamph - 2 centers that can win draws and grit with 40

Extras: Martinsen and Johnson - Toughness that can skate.

DEFENSE - Let the kids play if they prove ready after 9 games.
Keith - Jokijarju - The 19 year old will learn from Duncs and only get better
Gus - Seabrook - Decent chemistry in the past.
Rutta - Boquist - The 18 year old will only get better.

7th "D" - Manning - 6/7 should be his role.

GOALIES - Until Crawford returns then Forsberg goes to Rockford.
Ward - Hurry up Crow!!
Forsberg - Hurry up Crow!!
- ChicagoHope

I like the top six!
I'm not so sure Sikura makes the team. Some time in the Rock might be in order.
I'm not in a hurry for Joki or Bow to be in the NHL. I'd rather they be given some time to develop a little more.

Of course you do.
- Beaver-Warrior

Does he really though

The topic was not enough sandpaper - not aggregate weight. Which of those 2013/2015 guys would qualify as sandpaper? I would say none.
- EbonyRaptor

Not on the list ....#13 Daniel Carcillo - that's about it. It is about demeanor -so I am not sure what height and weight has to do with anything really.

Likely changes from opening night 2017

G - Crow out - Ward In - Downgrade
D - Kempny Out - Joki in - Push at best given his inexperience
D - Forsling Out - Gus In - Push
D - Murphy Out - Manning In - Push
F - Hartman Out - Kahun - Push to tiny upgrade
F - Kero Out - Kruger - Slight upgrade
F - Panik Out - Kunitz - Slight downgrade
F - Sharp Out - Kampf - Push to slight downgrade
F - Bouma Out - ???? Martinsen, Johnson, Sikura - Slight upgrade

Holdovers - AA, ADB, Kane, Keith, Saad, Schmaltz, Seabs, Toews
Probable holdovers - Rutta and Hayden

This is based on Rutta being able to go and the Hawks making the right decision with Boqvist to let him play a season in Juniors.

Ugh!
- -Doh-

You’re like right (or at least not wrong) for this coming season.

But - in two years - maybe Joki in, Forsling back, Murphy back, Kruger in, Kampf in - maybe your “pushes” become dramatic upgrades. Add in Boqvist, Meaudin, and others....

Ahh - but then you still have to replace Cup-winning-level Keith, Seabrook, Toews, Crawford, Kane....

So I don’t know.