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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: New Year, New You – 15 Blackhawks Thoughts
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I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 20 @ 11:19 AM ET
Define with and away.

I wont spend money to see a non-competitive product, but I will still follow and have interest in a team during rebuild times.

Frankly, taking that approach as a fan creates an incentive for the ownership to put a quality product out there.

But why would anyone, especially at these ticket prices, spend money to watch this team?

- Return of the Roar


I don't go to games, I watch. I'm a student in debt.

In the context of bandwagon, with-when they are playing great, in the playoffs, win the cup, taking some form of interest. Away-when they play poorly, nowhere near contention, you take no interest in the team. As you stated, you will still follow. That falls under with. I'm not trying to say someone is right or wrong in what you do, no one will hand out money to receive garbage in return. It is your right to decide to do so or not. All I did was point out an argument with a contradictory statement in it.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Sep 20 @ 11:20 AM ET
McDavid still has the highest cap % at signing in history.

The not about double digit salary not having won the cup in the salary cup era is a stupid point btw. There was only one team with those players and it's only been been a few seasons in a 13 year span. That's pretty much statistically irrelevant - a one in 30/31 chance of winning in a less than 3rd of the years available? Come on. If it was like 7-8 teams had such players and the sample size for years they existed was longer and there still wasn't a winner, sure, okay. But the point is like when kids says "you're my favorite dad" when they only have the one dad. It's factually true but the sample size is so small it doesn't carry any weight of impact / importance. It's a throwaway statement.

- L_B_R


Agree with you, plus the significance of double digits as a determining factor. I mean, Ovie has a cap hit over 9.5 million. Does that extra $461,538 make the actual difference between winning and losing? Where would one draw the line? 9,999,9999 is okay, as long as you don't pay them one more dollar...
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Sep 20 @ 11:20 AM ET
McDavid was also in a position where he could have driven a hard bargain to 15M and could have come close to getting that if that was his initial intention.
Neither Toews nor Kane should be in the same ballpark in salary as him.

- 67hawks

McDavid couldn't have quite reached all the way to $15m - he would have been just over the 20% limit of cap % share, so the closest he could get is something like 14.5/6m. Not a huge difference but still.

Also, I was slightly wrong in my last post - McDavid's cap hit % at signing was the 2nd highest because Ovechkin edged him out just slightly by a few hundredths of a % point.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Sep 20 @ 11:27 AM ET
it would be kind of fun if Q would dress for one of the preseason games the 2020 Game 1 projected lineup of defense Corp - just to give us a taste -
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Sep 20 @ 11:32 AM ET
Agree with you, plus the significance of double digits as a determining factor. I mean, Ovie has a cap hit over 9.5 million. Does that extra $461,538 make the actual difference between winning and losing? Where would one draw the line? 9,999,9999 is okay, as long as you don't pay them one more dollar...
- breadbag

And it ignores the context of what the cap ceiling was at time of signing. Two players who have the same cap hit but sign a year apart do not take up the same share of the cap the year they sign and thus impact their team differently initially. As the cap goes up, cap shares go down. It's a really simple concept but people forget it in favor of looking at pure amounts, which just doesn't tell you the whole story. It's almost as big a pet peeve to me as people who ignore term when looking at contracts. Context always matters.

And anyway, bringing up a point that says "McDavid didn't take the full amount he could have" while ignoring that articles existed that same the same thing about Toews/Kane back when they signed is weird to me. Maybe not specifically about them turning down money but that they could have gotten more on the open market. Instead, Toews/Kane took contracts with cap hit % pretty closely in-line with other star players (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin). McDavid did as well, just on the higher end to push it. The fact that those % are almost standard suggests that there is likely a self-imposed limit among the players themselves.

PS. Yes, I know my pet peeves are weird lol.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Sep 20 @ 11:40 AM ET
Define with and away.

I wont spend money to see a non-competitive product, but I will still follow and have interest in a team during rebuild times.

Frankly, taking that approach as a fan creates an incentive for the ownership to put a quality product out there.

But why would anyone, especially at these ticket prices, spend money to watch this team?

- Return of the Roar

Because Your a FAN !! , Cheer for your team good bad ugly whatever ,We had 3 cups ,I feel this team has paid me back in spades for my loyalty .And I have been a fan since the late sixty .

Don't get me wrong I Do understand tanking ,but you don't go into the season thinking that . Hockey is more of a crap shoot then just about any other sport and lightning can strike .Teams can get on a role, players setup other team falter . Two words Vegas Baby . Sure if we have long term injury to key players and we are out of the running 3/4 of the way into the season may be time to play all the kids and just go with the flow . Even if you finish dead last the odds are not great you get that 1st pick anymore

I still plan to buy the NHL package and watch most every game ,and make a trip down to Chicago for a game or two .. GO HAWKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 20 @ 11:48 AM ET
Because Your a FAN !! , Cheer for your team good bad ugly whatever ,We had 3 cups ,I feel this team has paid me back in spades for my loyalty .And I have been a fan since the late sixty .

Don't get me wrong I Do understand tanking ,but you don't go into the season thinking that . Hockey is more of a crap shoot then just about any other sport and lightning can strike .Teams can get on a role, players setup other team falter . Two words Vegas Baby . Sure if we have long term injury to key players and we are out of the running 3/4 of the way into the season may be time to play all the kids and just go with the flow . Even if you finish dead last the odds are not great you get that 1st pick anymore

I still plan to buy the NHL package and watch most every game ,and make a trip down to Chicago for a game or two .. GO HAWKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- oldduffman


You have enthusiastically said what I have been trying to say. Thank you, sir, your passion is refreshing.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Sep 20 @ 11:56 AM ET
You have enthusiastically said what I have been trying to say. Thank you, sir, your passion is refreshing.
- I Am The Breadman

LaheysBRandy
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.28.2015

Sep 20 @ 12:03 PM ET
I didn't even both reading the rest of your post after this ridiculous statement
- SimpleJack


I’m not saying I’m expecting the Blackhawks to win the Stanley cup, I’m saying that you can’t discount the possibility. If the 200-1 longshot golden knights made it to the SCFs last year, why can’t this group.

I don’t think that I’m the one being ridiculous by saying that it isn’t outside the realm of possibility for the hawks to make a run this year if things shake out in their favor. We aren’t taking about faster than light travel here, we’re talking about a hockey team winning more games than you expect, it’s definitely possible.

I just think the attitudes of many posters on this board are ridiculously negative. Why not root for this team to exceed your expectations this year, and if they fail then there is the consolation of a high draft pick. Why root for their failure?

I would love to stop reading your posts as well, I just don’t get enough hawk talk in my life living in MA.
Savoy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spencer, NC
Joined: 01.15.2014

Sep 20 @ 12:05 PM ET
How many people who buy expensive ticket(s) to a Blackhawk game are spending all that money and going through all the trouble to get to the game are just hopeful as hell of seeing the team tank? Winning sales strategy for selling hockey tickets 101 according to some: Take your kid to the game and teach him the tank strategy, how cool is that dad? This board still has some real first class geniuses.
ToewsdNKanefusd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hampshire, IL
Joined: 05.14.2015

Sep 20 @ 12:08 PM ET
You must not watch the NBA lol
- SimpleJack



Because it's not a real sport...
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Sep 20 @ 12:08 PM ET
This Hawk team is not going to make a run.

1. They are NOT largely comprised of cup winning players. They are largely comprised of middling bottom six players and unknown quantities in rookies which are at least two years out from showing signs of NHL value.

2. Except for Kane, the small group of remaining cup players are no longer elite level talent.

3. This combination deters good free agent talent from considering coming here.

4. The recent draft may have some gems in the rough, but honestly....no diamonds.

5. Every team in their division got better - again - and the talent gap is widening.

#embracethetank

- Return of the Roar


Some of these statements hold a lot of truth, some not so much.

Yes, there is an ever decreasing presence of Cup Winning players in the organization, however, the assertion that Toews and Keith are not elite level players is just wrong. Toews is still a 1C on a whole lot of clubs, and Keith is a 1st pairing defenseman on most. Their play has declined from its peak but to assert that they have fallen so far as to be inconsequential players is just wrong.

The concept of tanking for draft picks is also somewhat flawed. How well has that worked for Edmonton who has drafted in the top 10 in 9 of the last 10 drafts, including 4 number 1's and a number 3? How about for Buffalo? Colorado?, etc.

High draft picks guarantee you nothing. Even "generational" players like McDavid do not assure you a playoff team, let alone a cup contending team.

Vegas proved last year that you don't need a team of superstars to succeed. Go back to the predictions before the season started and tell me who predicted them in the playoffs, let alone the Stanley Cup finals.

Find the right mix of players and coaching and you have a shot.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Sep 20 @ 12:18 PM ET
Hawks need to just try and clear salary cap space for next summer to sign a guy like Tyler Myers on defense and Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Jakob Silfverberg on forward.


Hawks also really need a to 3 draft selection. The Russian Wiz has ranked #3 Vasily Podkolzin is STRONG on the the puck and exceptionally skilled. He could probably make the Hawks next fall.


Saad-Schmaltz-Kane
Debrincat-Toews-Podkolzin
Sikura-Anisimov-Brock Nelson
Hayden-Kampf-xx

Keith-Tyler Myers
Jokiharju-Seabrook
Boquist/Gustaffson/Forsling-Murphy

Crow
Delia/Forsberg


now THAT roster would be very competitive
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Sep 20 @ 12:19 PM ET
Because it's not a real sport...
- ToewsdNKanefusd


Let's not forget that the Oilers blatantly tanked for McJesus as did the Leafs for Matthews. So, there is an argument on both sides for the merits of tanking in order to become a Cup Contender again.
ToewsdNKanefusd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hampshire, IL
Joined: 05.14.2015

Sep 20 @ 12:23 PM ET
Let's not forget that the Oilers blatantly tanked for McJesus as did the Leafs for Matthews. So, there is an argument on both sides for the merits of tanking in order to become a Cup Contender again.
- EnzoD



All conjecture...there is not one person that can tell me for sure that the front office had a closed meeting at the beginning of the year to say that "we are tanking"...

And if they did...well, it explains a lot of where they are, and what they haven't been able to accomplish.

Exactly why we should not want the Hawks to do the same. We want them to keep fostering the winning culture and attitude throughout the entire organization. I believe the intangibles such as this is more important than people realize. Case and point, Vegas.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Sep 20 @ 12:26 PM ET
All conjecture...there is not one person that can tell me for sure that the front office had a closed meeting at the beginning of the year to say that "we are tanking"...
- ToewsdNKanefusd



From the Toronoto sun leading up to Matthews Draft Year...

"Maple Leafs following Buffalo Sabres' tank model"

https://torontosun.com/20...70-4baf-b305-637f60bf4272


EDIT: Another article about the McDavid-Eichel draft year tanking

https://nationalpost.com/...bowl-but-no-sequel-so-far
ToewsdNKanefusd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hampshire, IL
Joined: 05.14.2015

Sep 20 @ 12:31 PM ET
From the Toronoto sun leading up to Matthews Draft Year...

"Maple Leafs following Buffalo Sabres' tank model"

https://torontosun.com/20...70-4baf-b305-637f60bf4272


EDIT: Another article about the McDavid-Eichel draft year tanking

https://nationalpost.com/...bowl-but-no-sequel-so-far

- EnzoD


So now you are saying that writers don't use conjecture, and know everything going on in a front office?

News is all a business about getting as many people to read/listen/watch. Of course their going to write articles like these, cause people can't help but read them!
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Sep 20 @ 12:34 PM ET
So now you are saying that writers don't use conjecture, and know everything going on in a front office?
- ToewsdNKanefusd


Dude, they tanked. If you want to get into semantics about verification..sure you win as there's no tangible way to prove it beyond common sense logic. From trading players to playing AHLers, all 3 teams tanked to get a Franchise Player. Sometimes Tanking works (McDavid + Matthews), sometimes it doesn't (AZ never winning the Lottery).


I Am The Breadman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Richton Park, IL
Joined: 09.16.2018

Sep 20 @ 12:34 PM ET
From the Toronoto sun leading up to Matthews Draft Year...

"Maple Leafs following Buffalo Sabres' tank model"

https://torontosun.com/20...70-4baf-b305-637f60bf4272


EDIT: Another article about the McDavid-Eichel draft year tanking

https://nationalpost.com/...bowl-but-no-sequel-so-far

- EnzoD


If true, seems like a foolproof method and I fully endorse that they keep it up.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Sep 20 @ 12:37 PM ET
Let's not forget that the Oilers blatantly tanked for McJesus as did the Leafs for Matthews. So, there is an argument on both sides for the merits of tanking in order to become a Cup Contender again.
- EnzoD


At this point the Leafs are Cup Contenders only on Paper. While they have made the playoffs in the 2 seasons since drafting Matthews, they have been eliminated in the first round both years. Toronto knows its window may be short. Nylander is still unsigned and Matthews and Marner are RFA's after this season. Unless there is a big cap increase it will be tough to keep them all.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Sep 20 @ 12:41 PM ET
Where in my post did I say “with the team” or “away from the team”??

You changed my statement.

Wanting the team you root for to rebuild doesn’t make you a bandwagon fan....

- SimpleJack


Amen.... if anything the bandwagon fans are the mindless droves that still attend games and sit there thinking this team is a cup contender and stacked with talent and that Toews is one of the best players in the NHL still.

This team has one elite player in Kane and an aging Duncan Keith who is probably one tier below.

Then you have guys like Seabrook and Toews, warriors from the cup teams, that have both fallen off significantly.

Seabs isn't a top pairing guy anymore and Toews is not a Top 10 center in the NHL.

Not bashing Toews either. His sweater hangs in my closet but he is not what he was in 2009-2015.
ToewsdNKanefusd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hampshire, IL
Joined: 05.14.2015

Sep 20 @ 12:41 PM ET
Dude, they tanked. If you want to get into semantics about verification..sure you win as there's no tangible way to prove it beyond common sense logic. From trading players to playing AHLers, all 3 teams tanked to get a Franchise Player. Sometimes Tanking works (McDavid + Matthews), sometimes it doesn't (AZ never winning the Lottery).
- EnzoD


I wouldn't say that it has worked for Edmonton or Toronto, as they haven't won anything yet. That was all my point was, is that no one can say for certain that a team is tanking, and my opinion based of my last few posts, is that you wouldn't want to do that as it would hurt the club more.

I guess we will have to just agree to disagree about tanking. Thank you for the banter on this slow work day for me. I do actually like reading your posts, even if it is more pessimistic, because it keeps me from getting too optimistic!
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Sep 20 @ 12:43 PM ET
We banned Caillou in our house. There's a study that says it makes kids "whiny" + it's one of the most annoying things you have watched in your life as an adult.
- Justin Lowe


Whew Caillou. So hard to watch. Luckily our son was smart and he figured it out quickly too. The creators of the show made some odd choices - why make Caillou seem sickly and whiny?
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Sep 20 @ 12:46 PM ET
From the Toronoto sun leading up to Matthews Draft Year...

"Maple Leafs following Buffalo Sabres' tank model"

https://torontosun.com/20...70-4baf-b305-637f60bf4272


EDIT: Another article about the McDavid-Eichel draft year tanking

https://nationalpost.com/...bowl-but-no-sequel-so-far

- EnzoD

Toronto sun now there is a politer prize winning paper I would not wrap yesterday garbage in that crap .Makes the Enquire look like the bible
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Sep 20 @ 12:48 PM ET
Somebody tell Maple Loafs fans and writers. I saw a Sportsnet Headline last night something along the lines "Maple Leafs thinking Stanley Cup after Preseason Opener"
- EnzoD


You can’t use Toronto fans or media as a touchstone for anything but craziness. When Austin started his career with a 4 goal game some of the talk went like this “Well we know he is not going to score 328 goals but he has a really chance at 85.”
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