Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Peter Tessier: Morrissey is next big issue for Jets
Author Message
2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Aug 10 @ 5:36 PM ET
This

Analytics are useful only in the regular season when coaches aren't line matching as much as they do in the playoffs.

- TheUltimateJet


To be clear analytics can be useful in playoff too - however - every situation is different and data collected requires interpretation to apply it well. Perhaps different groups of data will be more helpful in the playoffs or different regular season situations.

To say it another way: I have much more confidence in Paul Maurice's ability to interpret and apply analytics compared to some media articles spouting off one stat or another to explain why the Jets record is only 52-20-10 instead of 82-0. (If only we would play this guy more and that guy less). It makes a good media story to have a few bits of populist data to cling to while bashing the easy targets. Everyone loves the backup quarterback and the next coach. It's true that if they keep on bashing long enough eventually they will be right.
jetsnation
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 02.11.2015

Aug 10 @ 6:33 PM ET
That's not my concern about analytics at all. My concern is that there are so many gaps in what is measured that the current available data by itself is not all that useful yet.

It's a very short sample size and very subjective but I will use Toby as an example. The naysayers said he was vulnerable in playoff hockey, yet he was an analytics darling. The playoffs came and the stats supported those people that predicted Toby's playoff game was wanting. Is this due to injury? Physical size/strength? Too long a stick slowing down his playmaking? Getting slower with age? No longer playing against the mean/average opponent and now vs the cream every shift and game that doesn't translate to best vs best? I suspect it was a little of all of the above.

Huge areas that analytics fails at is the effect of coaching, roles required, injuries, team chemistry, the effect of leadership, personal growth etc. These are areas that are reduced to averages. Some (on both sides of analytic fence) will go so far as to percieve player worth as black or white without consideration that other factors impact their effectiveness.

Stats and analysis of player value is not new to sport. It has been around since at least the start of the original Greek olympics and Roman gladiators . Fans knew their styles/techniques and records. There has been some recent innovation that will have an impact similar to Roger Nielson's innovative use of video to improve defensive play, or any other innovator. It is almost certain that each team employs their own analytics people to synthesizes data in unique ways not yet available to the public. More gaps will be closed as analytics evolves I am sure.

Fans will always be a step behind the professionals making a living studying these things and yet so many fans will believe they know a better way to evaluate talent whether it be by the eye or some set of data. There are a number of GM's who are committed to building their teams by using the latest data available (and who can blame them) as opposed to traditional expertise. When the entire league is reliant fully on analytics I will personally guarantee that some will be successful .

- 2.0


Excellent post 2.0. One of your best !

BTW. Toby's analytics this year were not remotely close to being that good. That's why he only played 13 -14 minutes a game. He was close to last in the NHL in several categories. Transition I believe he was 4th worst in the league.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 10 @ 7:53 PM ET
That's not my concern about analytics at all. My concern is that there are so many gaps in what is measured that the current available data by itself is not all that useful yet.

It's a very short sample size and very subjective but I will use Toby as an example. The naysayers said he was vulnerable in playoff hockey, yet he was an analytics darling. The playoffs came and the stats supported those people that predicted Toby's playoff game was wanting. Is this due to injury? Physical size/strength? Too long a stick slowing down his playmaking? Getting slower with age? No longer playing against the mean/average opponent and now vs the cream every shift and game that doesn't translate to best vs best? I suspect it was a little of all of the above.

Huge areas that analytics fails at is the effect of coaching, roles required, injuries, team chemistry, the effect of leadership, personal growth etc. These are areas that are reduced to averages. Some (on both sides of analytic fence) will go so far as to percieve player worth as black or white without consideration that other factors impact their effectiveness.

Stats and analysis of player value is not new to sport. It has been around since at least the start of the original Greek olympics and Roman gladiators . Fans knew their styles/techniques and records. There has been some recent innovation that will have an impact similar to Roger Nielson's innovative use of video to improve defensive play, or any other innovator. It is almost certain that each team employs their own analytics people to synthesizes data in unique ways not yet available to the public. More gaps will be closed as analytics evolves I am sure.

Fans will always be a step behind the professionals making a living studying these things and yet so many fans will believe they know a better way to evaluate talent whether it be by the eye or some set of data. There are a number of GM's who are committed to building their teams by using the latest data available (and who can blame them) as opposed to traditional expertise. When the entire league is reliant fully on analytics I will personally guarantee that some will be successful .

- 2.0


I actually love this. While I don’t necessarily agree with all of the points you made (or at least not completely), I like how you presented it. Basically, I agree with everything, but only like 42%. If that makes any sense.

I would argue that we’re far enough down the analytics rabbit hole that they can be relied on a bit more than anything else (Chicago, Boston, LA, and Pittsburgh were all either advanced stat darlings, or spending massive amounts of money to move in that direction), I also fully endorse having a healthy skepticism of basically everything.

Role, sample size, and chemistry all play a big role, but usually a player is what the stats say they are. A good player mired in a bad situation (wrong role/limited minutes/ injury returns) will usually shine through in the underlying numbers (Ehlers with Thorburn, #Petano when they don’t get linemates, Perreault with Hendricks and Armia, etc). The same can be said for players punching above their weight class, or even young players still filling out their game outside of raw talent. Tanev on the TLC line (credit here, he’s excellent with them. Not just head above water) and Stuart with Trouba come to mind on the hoisted to excellence side, while Connor and Laine have been picture perfect examples of dominant offensive youngins whom struggle away from the puck (both are improving massively. It’s just a young player thing).

As a side note, Toby’s Nashville series was actually solid. It fell apart in Vegas due to the sudden increase in speed from Vegas’ forecheck, the likely still-nagging of his end of season injury, and the Neal politely collapsing half his rib cage.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 10 @ 7:55 PM ET
Excellent post 2.0. One of your best !

BTW. Toby's analytics this year were not remotely close to being that good. That's why he only played 13 -14 minutes a game. He was close to last in the NHL in several categories. Transition I believe he was 4th worst in the league.

- jetsnation


Can you source the transition bit? Everything I’ve seen or heard had his weakness being in the offensive zone, while his defence and transition game were still top level.

I’ve also provided, multiple times at that, links and references to him being top 5 in almost every measurable defensive category.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 10 @ 7:58 PM ET
To be clear analytics can be useful in playoff too - however - every situation is different and will still require interpretation to apply it well. Perhaps different groups of data will be more helpful in the playoffs or different regular season situations.

To say it another way: I have much more confidence in Paul Maurice's ability to interpret and apply analytics compared to some media articles spouting off one stat or another to explain why the Jets record is only 52-20-10 instead of 82-0. (If only we would play this guy more and that guy less). It makes a good media story to have a few bits of populist data to cling to while bashing the easy targets. Everyone loves the backup quarterback and the next coach. It's true that if they keep on bashing long enough eventually they will be right.

- 2.0


I have 0 faith in Maurice. It would be different if he did something that is computer boys hated, and it was gold. But there’s now years of history for him here where he does something weird, everyone says it’s a bad idea, and then it ends up being a really bad idea. Or where he strikes gold, and stops doing it for... reasons?
jetsnation
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 02.11.2015

Aug 10 @ 8:14 PM ET
Can you source the transition bit? Everything I’ve seen or heard had his weakness being in the offensive zone, while his defence and transition game were still top level.

I’ve also provided, multiple times at that, links and references to him being top 5 in almost every measurable defensive category.

- Rexypoo


I'll bite on this one. Easy game to win.

https://public.tableau.co...Y57QPT?:display_count=yes

I threw in Myers just for fun although he was dragged down in the chart by a year or so in Buffalo. Bottom line is Enstrom is not a very good overall player. Maurice was correct not to play him that much over the last few years.
2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Aug 10 @ 8:45 PM ET
I'll bite on this one. Easy game to win.

https://public.tableau.co...Y57QPT?:display_count=yes

I threw in Myers just for fun although he was dragged down in the chart by a year or so in Buffalo. Bottom line is Enstrom is not a very good overall player. Maurice was correct not to play him that much over the last few years.

- jetsnation


It looks a lot different when factoring in just the 2017-18 season.
jetsnation
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 02.11.2015

Aug 10 @ 9:49 PM ET
It looks a lot different when factoring in just the 2017-18 season.
- 2.0


Defense partners can really affect the numbers. Myers with Chariot /Kulikov. Enstrom sheltered mostly with Buff. Winning hockey helps too. Its one of the key flaws ( there are many) of analytics.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 10 @ 11:37 PM ET
I'll bite on this one. Easy game to win.

https://public.tableau.co...Y57QPT?:display_count=yes

I threw in Myers just for fun although he was dragged down in the chart by a year or so in Buffalo. Bottom line is Enstrom is not a very good overall player. Maurice was correct not to play him that much over the last few years.

- jetsnation


I’ve never seen this model before, but it kind of lines up exactly with what I said. Defence was elite, offence had been falling, and I need to dig into that visual a bit more. I’ll look for the articles I’d been looking at.

Edit: it also helps using a model that looks exclusively at offence. Toby’s game isn’t offence anymore. Although he did have a higher assist rate than Myers, for some reason
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 11 @ 12:04 AM ET
Defense partners can really affect the numbers. Myers with Chariot /Kulikov. Enstrom sheltered mostly with Buff. Winning hockey helps too. Its one of the key flaws ( there are many) of analytics.
- jetsnation


http://www.naturalstattri...te=n&v=t&playerid=8470828

http://www.naturalstattri...te=n&v=p&playerid=8470828

https://twitter.com/arcti...s/986335227281682432?s=21

As you can see through the first two links, virtually every player on the team benefited on the score sheet from playing with Enstrom. There were 3 notable exceptions: the TLC line seemed to fair better away from Toby (as did Toby away from them), Mathieu The God King Perreault, and (for some weird reason) Stastny and Toby seemed to absolutely tank each other.

Toby’s solo underlying numbers also saw an impressive effort across the board, with him scoring mid 50’s or higher in virtually every scoring/shooting related category, both for and against.

Also, I couldn’t find the damn article about his transition game. I know it was on sportsnet, but that’s as far as I got. So I’ll just link his defensive work rate again instead.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Aug 11 @ 3:32 PM ET
Guys, kudos on the healthy debate with evidence and no name calling. Seriously, I liked all posts
liverpoolnhl
Joined: 02.06.2018

Aug 11 @ 10:53 PM ET
Guys, kudos on the healthy debate with evidence and no name calling. Seriously, I liked all posts
- Ross77

Second that!......
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 12 @ 12:02 PM ET
Second that!......
- liverpoolnhl


I have no idea what you guys are talking about, jetsnation and I never argue
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Aug 13 @ 9:20 AM ET
Does anyone know if jack Glover will be at camp this year, I went to a few practices for last years camp and I liked what I saw, I realize he didn’t have a great year though. Just wondering if he even has a shot at the moose. I guess there are only so many spots there though as well and Stanley, green, shilling, Niku, cederholm, Nogier, and others are probably all ahead of him.
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 13 @ 10:05 AM ET
Does anyone know if jack Glover will be at camp this year, I went to a few practices for last years camp and I liked what I saw, I realize he didn’t have a great year though. Just wondering if he even has a shot at the moose. I guess there are only so many spots there though as well and Stanley, green, shilling, Niku, cederholm, Nogier, and others are probably all ahead of him.
- Ross77


He’s likely done here. All accounts I’ve cone across say his development went backwards this year. I also wouldn’t expect Cederholm to make the Moose. Our habit of drafting big, unskilled defencemen is becoming a problem. Kostalek is another casualty.
CorydonKeith
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 01.22.2014

Aug 13 @ 10:56 AM ET
Healthy debate ... analytics support decision making ... just as in business ... you collect and measure to assist with your strategy & tactics ... analytics on their own do not dictate action ... action is (should be) dictated by experience and foresight ... that's why there are better GM's than others and better coaches than others

Toby's time had come and past ... at there very least - his time as a $5M+ player had past ... tricky question - would you have Toby back at a $2.1M cap hit ? ... ceteris peribus (econ major - other things equal ... like he'd be pleased to do it so his head is in the right place) ... $2.1M is 1.5 times Chariot and a number picked from thin air ... would you do it then ?

Not sure I would ... time to move on and develop the next crop ... develop with game time

I'm getting jacked about the upcoming season ... who gets the call at #2 centre ?:

- Little
- Roslo
- Appleton
- Petan
- an unknown

Cheers

2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Aug 13 @ 11:32 AM ET
He’s likely done here. All accounts I’ve cone across say his development went backwards this year. I also wouldn’t expect Cederholm to make the Moose. Our habit of drafting big, unskilled defencemen is becoming a problem. Kostalek is another casualty.
- Rexypoo


you mean guys like Trouba, Morrissey, Poolman, Niku?
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Aug 13 @ 1:28 PM ET
you mean guys like Trouba, Morrissey, Poolman, Niku?
- 2.0


No. I mean guys like Stanley, Kostalek, Nogier, and Cederholm.
2.0
Location: Dauphin, MB
Joined: 09.11.2017

Aug 13 @ 3:41 PM ET
No. I mean guys like Stanley, Kostalek, Nogier, and Cederholm.
- Rexypoo


my point is that it's a little rich to call it a bad habit (implying poor drafting) when the overall big picture is that the Jets have done very well at the draft.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3