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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Back to Basics
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breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 10 @ 3:06 PM ET
If I'm understanding you correctly you're wrong on this. That Kane and Toews' contracts are the same percentage of their teams' cap as Kucherov's and Stamkos'? This is even assuming Toews plays up to near his salary which he is not and probably never will.

Big fail on Stan's part by any measure. https://www.hockeybuzz.co...-salary-cap-era/177/93879

I'll wait for you to correct me.

- Mr Ricochet


I'm not sure that the point of LBR's post was the exact % of the contract vs the team but rather the long term high value contracts and structure of the team. There are similarities and differences in the situations. Looking to next year, TBL will be in a situation the Hawks found themselves in, however their top players haven't yet gone the distance to win a cup. There were many around the NHL that thought Stamkos would have gotten Toews/Kane money if he had the cups to back it up. Winning cups matters when it comes to getting paid and Kane/Toews proved to be the clutch guys for the Hawks prime. i.e. points/GWG and game changing plays.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 10 @ 3:10 PM ET

When i started high school at Loyola Academy,

- nickmo2699


I boycotted the Hawks for 23 yrs, refused to give the old man a nickel, and as a result took in quite a few HS games before I found jrs and low pro. Tried to get to as many New Trier vs Loyola games as possible. Great teams and a helluva rivalry.

St Rita, Marist, Br Rice, Mt Carmel, Fenwick were great teams to follow as well being a south side guy but would get up north to see Loyola, New Trier and Naperville North games.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 10 @ 3:25 PM ET
I'm not sure that the point of LBR's post was the exact % of the contract vs the team but rather the long term high value contracts and structure of the team. There are similarities and differences in the situations. Looking to next year, TBL will be in a situation the Hawks found themselves in, however their top players haven't yet gone the distance to win a cup. There were many around the NHL that thought Stamkos would have gotten Toews/Kane money if he had the cups to back it up. Winning cups matters when it comes to getting paid and Kane/Toews proved to be the clutch guys for the Hawks prime. i.e. points/GWG and game changing plays.
- breadbag


As sure as the sun comes up tomorrow I'm sure LBR will be in to give me "context". Sorry but it falls on deaf ears as far as I'm concerned anymore. Context concerning Stan's handling of the cap is simply appeasement to me as he has crippled this franchise, cups or not. Teams like WPG, TOR and TB are showing you can get and pay superstars whether they win cups or not without gutting the thing.

And then comes the obligatory they haven't won cups. Well StanBow inherited his core and most of the rest of the talent where a Stevie Y didn't.

And respectfully BB I don't think Stamkos and his 60 goal season wouldn't have gotten him another dime on the open market had he won a cup.


Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 10 @ 3:32 PM ET
I boycotted the Hawks for 23 yrs, refused to give the old man a nickel, and as a result took in quite a few HS games before I found jrs and low pro. Tried to get to as many New Trier vs Loyola games as possible. Great teams and a helluva rivalry.

St Rita, Marist, Br Rice, Mt Carmel, Fenwick were great teams to follow as well being a south side guy but would get up north to see Loyola, New Trier and Naperville North games.

- Mr Ricochet



You weren't alone.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 10 @ 3:36 PM ET
As sure as the sun comes up tomorrow I'm sure LBR will be in to give me "context". Sorry but it falls on deaf ears as far as I'm concerned anymore. Context concerning Stan's handling of the cap is simply appeasement to me as he has crippled this franchise, cups or not. Teams like WPG, TOR and TB are showing you can get and pay superstars whether they win cups or not without gutting the thing.

And then comes the obligatory they haven't won cups. Well StanBow inherited his core and most of the rest of the talent where a Stevie Y didn't.

And respectfully BB I don't think Stamkos and his 60 goal season wouldn't have gotten him another dime on the open market had he won a cup.

- Mr Ricochet


I can agree with this to an extent. Yes you can get and pay superstars, but if you look at the rest of their rosters (notably TB) they fill in below with a bunch of ELC/$1M contracts. The Hawks tried the same thing last year and it was a disaster.

A couple other thing, in about 2 years each of those teams are going to have to pay dearly for the likes of Matthews, Marner, Liane, etc.

I noted this before, but each of these teams also has no more than $5.8M total in goalies.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 10 @ 3:45 PM ET
According to some, the Hawks don't need guys like Panarin and TT. They need guys like Kunitz and Manning.
- Savoy


Need is a funny word to use here. They don’t “need” Panarin, or TT. It would be nice to have them, but They have a good number of players that can score. TT has had one above average year, and when he was here did not show much in the way of making himself any harder to play against (correct, that is not his game, but it behooves all players to take the necessary steps to do so).

Panarin is a great player, but there are more and more signs that he would end up being a lost asset at the end of his contract. WAs Saad supposed to be much better? Yes, but I don’t mind the deal as a whole.

Aside from some comments about him being selfish, I don’t see many saying they wouldn’t like Panarin (and to a lesser extent TT), on the team. Not to mention, the Hawks haven’t really had any additional cash to hand out (yes that is their own fault).
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 10 @ 3:48 PM ET
I can agree with this to an extent. Yes you can get and pay superstars, but if you look at the rest of their rosters (notably TB) they fill in below with a bunch of ELC/$1M contracts. The Hawks tried the same thing last year and it was a disaster.

A couple other thing, in about 2 years each of those teams are going to have to pay dearly for the likes of Matthews, Marner, Liane, etc.

I noted this before, but each of these teams also has no more than $5.8M total in goalies.

- Chunk


Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 10 @ 3:59 PM ET
Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.

- Mr Ricochet


Very true, but that is a different argument I believe, from your first point. Again, it's self inflicted, but I think the Hawks have just been tighter against the cap for much longer.

Stan signed Panarin, Kempny, TvR, drafted Schmaltz, Saad, Shaw (and whether we like it or not K. Hayes would look great centering one of our lines).

Your point about selling off talent is spot on, but I don't think they do a bad job of identifying good players. They do a crap job of keeping the good ones though.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:01 PM ET
Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.

- Mr Ricochet


I tried to make this argument a couple months ago but realized that Yzerman's draft record has been great but not flawless. Stan has had a few gems in Saad, TT, Debrincat, Danault, and the undrafted Panarin.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 10 @ 4:01 PM ET
As sure as the sun comes up tomorrow I'm sure LBR will be in to give me "context". Sorry but it falls on deaf ears as far as I'm concerned anymore. Context concerning Stan's handling of the cap is simply appeasement to me as he has crippled this franchise, cups or not. Teams like WPG, TOR and TB are showing you can get and pay superstars whether they win cups or not without gutting the thing.

And then comes the obligatory they haven't won cups. Well StanBow inherited his core and most of the rest of the talent where a Stevie Y didn't.

And respectfully BB I don't think Stamkos and his 60 goal season wouldn't have gotten him another dime on the open market had he won a cup.

- Mr Ricochet


No big deal if we don't agree, I'm just saying at the time I recall it being widely discussed that the feather in the cap Stamkos was missing was playoff success, or he could definitely command the same dollars as Kane/Toews or more. It is impossible to prove or disprove, but many reports talked about him likely netting salary in the 9-10 mil range on the open market. I think when an agent is negotiating, the added value of playoff performances and cups is added leverage. If the Hawks had failed to win in 2010 and 2013, I'm certain Kane/Toews wouldn't have the 10.5 million dollar cap hits they have today. The Hawks are paying salary because of previous playoff heroics.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 10 @ 4:09 PM ET
Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.

- Mr Ricochet


Saad, Schmaltz, Dcat, Shaw, TT, Hartman, Hayes*

He has found some talent there. Hino was a 6th rounder too, not that he compares to the people you listed. I think where he loses it is because of the contracts he's handed out. He can't afford to keep these guys.

Saad - contract amount initially cost him an extension, but brought back because of Panarin's future raise
Shaw - feels like he fell out of favor a bit, and contract was too rich
TT - Had to move him to move Bicks. Also, I recall vividly that people on this board thought he was soft and not worth it.
Hartman - no idea, butt heads with Q/FO?
Hayes - sucks, but what can you do

It's got to be tough to find gems when you're sitting drafting 25-30 every year. The 1st rounders are far from guaranteed there. Look at what he's done recently with higher picks. We won't know for a while, but we have a solid depth of prospects and some good draft picks. And you can't look solely on drafts. Look at players he's signed and added to the prospect pool. Maybe in 4-5 years, we look at these past few draft classes and signings and we're looking like the lightning. It comes in waves. With higher success, you tend to focus less on prospects and more on FA talent to keep you winning. Once the tides turn, then you have to switch strategy and start stocking. I think Bowman is actually doing a pretty good stocking prospects. My only complaint, as many have mentioned numerous times, is it seems he's stuck between restocking/retooling and win now. Tough to rebuild or win when you're only half in.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 10 @ 4:12 PM ET
Habs to trade Patches ASAP, saw this pop up on my phone from bleacher report. Anyone know of any discussions of teams looking at him?
riozzo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Cornwallis Island
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:26 PM ET
This is a very interesting contract, timing is everything, note signing bonuses.

8_F139_F96_7081_4588_86_D8_24023436_C655


- walleyeb1



What is the financial benefit of Salary v bonus?
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 10 @ 4:45 PM ET
Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.

- Mr Ricochet


Its interesting to see how the Lightning's draft picks have worked out, considering how many choice selections they have had since 2008.

Stamkos and Hedman - back to back in 2008 and 2009

Brett Connolly in 2010 - elsewhere

2011 - Kucherov (#58) and Palat (#208) and other Russians

2012 - Slater Koekkoek #10 - not many games played, but he gets Vasilesky at #19.

2013 - Drouin - gone. Probably should have taken Seth Jones instead.

2014 - DeAngelo #19 - gone but they get Braydon Point at #79

2015 - Cirelli at #72. Nobody else has played a single game from 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts.

So some of Stevie Y's selections are wide open to criticism.
ObeseOprah
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:10 PM ET
What is the financial benefit of Salary v bonus?
- riozzo


Bonuses get paid if there's a lockout, Salary does not I believe
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:13 PM ET
Bonuses get paid if there's a lockout, Salary does not I believe
- ObeseOprah


Also not subject to jock tax.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 10 @ 5:33 PM ET
Killorn, 3rd rd
Palat, 7th rd
Gourde, undrafted
Johnson, undrafted
Point, 3rd rd

Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary. ....... TB reloads, Hawks sell off talent they do identify to dump a bad salary and the rest simply are not in the Gourde, Johnson, Point, Palat class.

- Mr Ricochet


I'm thinking that the best thing Stan DOES is draft well - especially low down in the rounds.

2010 - Hayes (24) Johns (60) Nordstrom (90) - none still on the Hawks, but NHL skaters

2011 - Saad (43) Shaw (149) Danault (26) - two heavy contributors to a couple of Cups

2012 - TT (18) Hinostroza (169) - bad move to let TT go with Bickell, but maybe unavoidable

2013 - Hartman (30) Hayden (74) - we'll see if Hartman should have been moved, and Hayden is in the mix for this year

2014 - Schmaltz (20) Sikura (178) - both heavily figured into the future

2015 - No one with any NHL experience yet

2016 - AdB (39)

2017 - Jokiharju (29), Mitchell (57), Altybarkmakyan (70), Soderlund (112) - the first two are certainly top prospects

2018 - Boqvist (8), Beaudin (27), Wise (69) - well, we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not commenting on his trades or cap management - only to your comment that
"...Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary."

I think they do both well for draft purposes, especially considering that they have had only one top-10 pick since Stan has been the GM (only one since the Kane / Toews drafts, I think).
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 10 @ 5:33 PM ET
Also not subject to jock tax.
- walleyeb1


What is the "jock tax"?

35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jul 10 @ 5:36 PM ET
I'm thinking that the best thing Stan DOES is draft well - especially low down in the rounds.

2010 - Hayes (24) Johns (60) Nordstrom (90) - none still on the Hawks, but NHL skaters

2011 - Saad (43) Shaw (149) Danault (26) - two heavy contributors to a couple of Cups

2012 - TT (18) Hinostroza (169) - bad move to let TT go with Bickell, but maybe unavoidable

2013 - Hartman (30) Hayden (74) - we'll see if Hartman should have been moved, and Hayden is in the mix for this year

2014 - Schmaltz (20) Sikura (178) - both heavily figured into the future

2015 - No one with any NHL experience yet

2016 - AdB (39)

2017 - Jokiharju (29), Mitchell (57), Altybarkmakyan (70), Soderlund (112) - the first two are certainly top prospects

2018 - Boqvist (8), Beaudin (27), Wise (69) - well, we'll have to wait and see.

I'm not commenting on his trades or cap management - only to your comment that
"...Simply said the Hawks do not draft as well or evaluate talent as well either from drafting or evaluating salary."

I think they do both well for draft purposes, especially considering that they have had only one top-10 pick since Stan has been the GM (only one since the Kane / Toews drafts, I think).

- StLBravesFan

Then factor in free agent signing: Panarin, Kempny, Rutta...I think 'Hawk scouting and drafting is top shelf.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:57 PM ET
If I'm understanding you correctly you're wrong on this. That Kane and Toews' contracts are the same percentage of their teams' cap as Kucherov's and Stamkos'? This is even assuming Toews plays up to near his salary which he is not and probably never will.

Big fail on Stan's part by any measure.

I'll wait for you to correct me.

- Mr Ricochet

Easy to correct: you were not understanding correctly as I am not talking about the current Hawks and thus not Toews/Kane's current deals. I specifically said the Lightning now are similar to the Hawks in 2015 and earlier, so before the current contracts to Kane/Toews. And they are. I honestly don't know how you thought I was talking about now when I clearly wrote in a specific time frame of reference that ended in 2015 (aka when the new Toews/Kane contracts started).

Anyway, here is why I believe the Lightning are balancing their team in a similar way to how the Hawks did it 2011-2015:

Toews/Kane cap hit % was 11.09% at time of signing of their 2nd deals - Stamkos was 11.64% and Kucherov's is 11.98%, if you consider those two to be the equivalent stars of their teams. Then you have Keith at 9.75% and Hedman at 10.79%, Seabrook 9.76%, McDonagh 8.49%, Hjammer 5.89%/6.38% and Stralman 6.52%, Crawford 4.49% and Vasilevskiy 4.79%, and you can go down their roster in a pretty similar way. Their bigger names are taking up similar value at signing and thus their values correspond decently the next few years (as cap rises and % decrease), and then they surround the big name players / core with ELC players and other lower paid players.

My remark about cups was just that this balancing act worked for the Hawks during that time period but we have to wait to see if it does for the Lightning. It's just a pending thing for the Lightning - it could work out big for them, they could be set up to be a powerhouse in the years coming. Not really a opinion about Bowman vs Yzerman or anything like. Just talking about the math.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Jul 10 @ 6:05 PM ET
What is the "jock tax"?
- StLBravesFan


Jock tax
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



In the United States, the jock tax is the colloquially named income tax levied against visitors to a city or state who earn money in that jurisdiction. Since a state cannot afford to track the many individuals who do business on an itinerant basis, the ones targeted are usually very wealthy and high profile, namely professional athletes. Not only are the working schedules of famous sports players public, so are their salaries. The state can compute and collect the amount with very little investment of time and effort.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jul 10 @ 6:06 PM ET
What is the "jock tax"?
- StLBravesFan


Taxes charged by other states that professional athletes play in (road games).
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 10 @ 6:15 PM ET
This might have gone around already, but here is a popular analysis of the schedule next season, in terms of playing rested vs tired and the same status for your opponent. I.e. Edmonton and the Rangers have a pretty good schedule.

Hawks kinda middle of the road without too many games either way.

Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 10 @ 7:09 PM ET
You weren't alone.
- Beaver-Warrior


I hear ya, Beav. Dollar Bill's passing gave many the ok to come back. Didn't mean I stopped rooting for the Hawks or watching them only that I was old enough to have my own wheels and cash then but refused to give the man a nickel.

Think it was 1985 Hextall and the Flyers came thru and that was my last game until I ordered a 10 game package on Sept 27th 2007.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 10 @ 7:15 PM ET
Very true, but that is a different argument I believe, from your first point. Again, it's self inflicted, but I think the Hawks have just been tighter against the cap for much longer.

Stan signed Panarin, Kempny, TvR, drafted Schmaltz, Saad, Shaw (and whether we like it or not K. Hayes would look great centering one of our lines).

Your point about selling off talent is spot on, but I don't think they do a bad job of identifying good players. They do a crap job of keeping the good ones though.

- Chunk


They also unearthed Niemi and Raanta too. I'm not saying they suck at evaluating, unearthing or drafting just haven't been on TB's level and nowhere near working the cap as well. ...... I'd also add Kucherov is a 2nd rounder, 2 picks short of being a 3rd rounder.
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