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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Fast Friday: 5 Thoughts
Author Message
tyweb69
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jul 6 @ 2:57 PM ET
Interesting... so trading cash without ever having money switch hands.
- HawksHype

Another loophole for Bettman to close!!
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 6 @ 3:05 PM ET
Panarin is just looking after his own interests, I have no issue with that. He's set himself up for a monster deal and I hope he gets it.

I still make that deal with Columbus, Saad may have under performed but I believe he'll bounce back. With Hossa's departure the Hawks need an overall player of Saad's caliber. Saad will net 30 goals next season....book it!

- DarthKane


Heard a Russian reporter on NHL Network radio yesterday talking, said no way Panarin ever was going to sign in Columbus.

Doesn't want to be in a small market, wants to be in a big market, loved Chicago.

Revco38
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wherever I leave my hat
Joined: 07.26.2006

Jul 6 @ 3:20 PM ET
Heard a Russian reporter on NHL Network radio yesterday talking, said no way Panarin ever was going to sign in Columbus.

Doesn't want to be in a small market, wants to be in a big market, loved Chicago.


- vabeachbear


Can we clear enough salary to re-sign Panarin next summer??? Would he even want to?
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 6 @ 3:24 PM ET
Panarin is just looking after his own interests, I have no issue with that. He's set himself up for a monster deal and I hope he gets it.

I still make that deal with Columbus, Saad may have under performed but I believe he'll bounce back. With Hossa's departure the Hawks need an overall player of Saad's caliber. Saad will net 30 goals next season....book it!

- DarthKane





Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.
BMWChiFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: St Louis, MO
Joined: 04.12.2016

Jul 6 @ 3:40 PM ET
Yes lets continue to lament the Panarin trade in spite of the fact that he is now treating Columbus like garbage. Deal with the fact that Panarin only cares about Panarin. Doesn’t care about team or teammates.
- Z3Hawk

Breadman didn't sign with Columbus when he left the KHL, and he didn't have any choice in being traded to the Jackets. He doesn't owe them, nor the fans, anything other than his best efforts on the ice, which he has always given. Like any pro athlete, his career is short and he should take care of himself and his family first and foremost. If you've read about the hardships he went through growing up in Siberia, you might conclude that this applied to him even more than most. So get off his case.
Revco38
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wherever I leave my hat
Joined: 07.26.2006

Jul 6 @ 3:44 PM ET




Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack



??? Wont argue with how good Panarin is, but Saad is NOT a 30-40 pt player- numbers do not lie: '17-18 35 pts, /16-17- 53 pts, /15-16 53 pts,/14-15 52 pts/13-14 47 pts/ 12-13 27 pts in 46 games in first year in NHL- .59 points per game in his career so far.

He plays a very different game than Panarin- bot have value, both are 1st line players.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 6 @ 3:46 PM ET



Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack

Panarin is better but Saad hasn't produced less than 48 points (prorated) since coming into the NHL except for last season and had 50ish points or more for the 4 seasons prior to last even with switching teams except last season. Which is more likely: a 25 year old player who has been consistent in production with slight improvement year over year will rebound after a singular bad sh% season OR that a player just fell off a cliff never to recover at age 25?

Saad isn't Panarin quality, that's no doubt, but that can be acknowledged without downplaying Saad's production. And it's also why the trade wasn't one-for-one. It also doesn't help to ignore the context of the trade - Panarin's term wasn't ideal and the Hawks had lost most of the best defensive players so they needed help in that area.

Panarin is easily one of the players I liked to watch most, he's one of the best, and I was so annoyed when he was traded from a pure "I like to watch him" standpoint. Can't say I disagree with the reasoning behind the trade, though.

Edit to add: someone on SCH did some math... I took a look at all players who had a shooting percentage 3% or more below their career level in the 2016-17 season (like Saad this season) and how they performed in 2017-18. On average, their shooting percentage was above their career level in 17-18 and was an average of 4.81% higher than in 16-17 (and they scored an average of around 7.5 additional goals).

Applying that 4.81% bump to Saad’s 236 shots (as a very hypothetical example if he were to have the same exact underlying numbers next season), that would mean just over 11 additional goals; and that’s not even the extreme end where, leaving aside outliers with relatively small sample sizes prior to this season like Kyle Connor or William Karlsson, you have people like Kopitar whose sh% jumped 9.5% and scored 23 more goals. Obviously nothing is guaranteed and there’s a chance Saad’s sh% remains low, but expecting better next year isn’t some pie in the sky hope, it’s what would be expected based on historical precedent.


More to it, even if he just went back to his average sh% (including the down season), he'd have about 8 more goals (10.9 sh% x 237 shots would be 26 goals) and if he went back to his typical sh% minus last season, he's have about 10 more goals (11.62 sh% = 28 goals).

Add a potential sh% correction to Toews + a consistent linemate OR playing with Kane / Schmaltz which Saad would assist on 65-70% of the goals, that would easily put Saad back into his typical 50 point level or better. There's no guarantee obvs but the probability is high.
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Jul 6 @ 3:46 PM ET
Positive vibes!!!!

Hocks come out of the gate and win game 1 say,
10 to 2. Then we can all get on the bandwagon again.

Go Hocks!!!

- hocktock


Amen to this. Last year it was a roller coaster!
BMWChiFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: St Louis, MO
Joined: 04.12.2016

Jul 6 @ 3:50 PM ET



Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack


Trade will look better when Breadman re-signs with Hawks and they have Saad as well. Make it happen, Stanbo!
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jul 6 @ 3:54 PM ET



Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack


Saad's averaged nearly 50 points per season in his career...much more a 50pt guy vs the 30-40pt guy...but not a 70pt guy, no doubt.

They play a different game. One goes to the net while the other loves the perimeter. One is a much better sniper while the other plays a full 200ft game.

There are much more lopsided trades and will be more.

Hawks also "hoped" they got a future goalie (not sure about that), so they were willing to sacrifice offense to fill 2 holes.

Saad's shooting percentage last year was a career low (while his shot total was a career high). If he had hit his average shot percentage, would have given him 5 more goals. Wouldn't have mattered in the standings very much, but he should be more of the 25g guy playing solid 2 way hockey.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 6 @ 3:55 PM ET
Can we clear enough salary to re-sign Panarin next summer??? Would he even want to?
- Revco38

The reports are that Panarin is most interested in big markets along the coast. 10 teams have been pushing for him according to Dreger (SJS, LAK, DAL, FLA, TBL, NYI, NYR, BOS, NJD) but that Panarin's preferences are places like LA, Tampa, and the NY teams.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 6 @ 3:55 PM ET



Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack


You brought this on yourself....

Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jul 6 @ 4:05 PM ET
Disagree. IF it's a severe vertigo/concussion issue, its possible that Crawford hasn't even worked out since 2017, much less been on the ice. If its alcohol/substance related, I'd imagine that physical activity/training is a part of the recovery process and he would be in the gym and on the ice training. At 33 years old, is it realistic to expect him to come back next fall and perform like he did in 2017? When's the last time he was in the gym? When's the last time he was on the ice stopping NHL shooters? Lot's of questions with some potentially less than ideal answers.....
- EnzoD


My problem is I don’t see an advantage to the secrecy either for the team or CC. Arguably the secrecy certainly does not treat the fans with respect. We are only months from the start of the season and we don’t know is CC’s career is over or if he is in perfect health or if he is in between these extremes. Arguably this is ridiculous. Some say CC’s health is none of our business. However, it seems counter-intuitive to want your fans to care about the team but then to freeze them out. As I said I don’t understand why this is an advantage to CC. He could certainly decide to inform the fans.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jul 6 @ 4:08 PM ET



Trades don't get much more lopsided than that one.

Guess its gonna take more than one full season's worth of evidence to prove it everyone though.


Panarin is an all-star caliber top line player. A 70 pt per season caliber forward capable of being the best forward on his own team.

Saad is just another guy. A 30-40 pt per season caliber 2nd liner.

- SimpleJack


“Saad is just another guy.” Guess you were in a cave during the long play-off runs and the Cups.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jul 6 @ 4:21 PM ET
Breadman didn't sign with Columbus when he left the KHL, and he didn't have any choice in being traded to the Jackets. He doesn't owe them, nor the fans, anything other than his best efforts on the ice, which he has always given. Like any pro athlete, his career is short and he should take care of himself and his family first and foremost. If you've read about the hardships he went through growing up in Siberia, you might conclude that this applied to him even more than most. So get off his case.
- BMWChiFan


BOO HOO. Poor multi-millionaire. Panarin is a spoiled late 20s Brat. Want to know one NHL hockey team that won’t touch him with a 10 foot pole? The Hawks. Accept it or not Panarin was viewed like TT and Duclair. Not worth the hassle or drama. Good luck to any team foolish enough to acquire him. Wonder how Columbus views having him as a player? Thanks but I will be staying “on his case” because I just don’t suffer spoiled Brats well.
Revco38
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wherever I leave my hat
Joined: 07.26.2006

Jul 6 @ 4:21 PM ET
The reports are that Panarin is most interested in big markets along the coast. 10 teams have been pushing for him according to Dreger (SJS, LAK, DAL, FLA, TBL, NYI, NYR, BOS, NJD) but that Panarin's preferences are places like LA, Tampa, and the NY teams.
- L_B_R



Islanders should have the money next year and I hear they need a dynamic forward as one just left
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 6 @ 4:32 PM ET
The reports are that Panarin is most interested in big markets along the coast. 10 teams have been pushing for him according to Dreger (SJS, LAK, DAL, FLA, TBL, NYI, NYR, BOS, NJD) but that Panarin's preferences are places like LA, Tampa, and the NY teams.
- L_B_R

Russian born and speaking players 'generally' like to play in locations where there is a reasonable sized Russian populace they can socialize with, converse in their own tongue and dine in restaurants that cater to their tastes in food. That's why the Rangers, Devils and Capitals have usually had quite a few Russians on their teams.

Places like Columbus, Buffalo, Nashville, Phoenix are backwaters in the middle of nowhere to those guys.

That said, Panarin might wind up in St. Louis with his pal Tarasenko.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 6 @ 4:40 PM ET
Lol. Panarin is going to be a 10 million dollar player and Brandon Saad is a 6 million dollar player.

Surprise surprise someone doesn't want to to live in Ohio. Columbus is a cool town but in a weird post industrial / trying to be more than college town tweener city.

If he wants to sign in LA or NY or Toronto or Montreal or Chicago again I dont think that makes him a selfish wiener just another person who would rather live in a big busy city as opposed to a smaller one.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 6 @ 4:46 PM ET
My problem is I don’t see an advantage to the secrecy either for the team or CC. Arguably the secrecy certainly does not treat the fans with respect. We are only months from the start of the season and we don’t know is CC’s career is over or if he is in perfect health or if he is in between these extremes. Arguably this is ridiculous. Some say CC’s health is none of our business. However, it seems counter-intuitive to want your fans to care about the team but then to freeze them out. As I said I don’t understand why this is an advantage to CC. He could certainly decide to inform the fans.
- Z3Hawk

OMG, CC is an employee of the Blackhawks. They are not at liberty to discuss his medical condition with the public, no more than General Electric could tell acquatances of an employee, “you know, he/she has a drinking problem” or, “Joe Smith has cancer”.

There are a few things that supersede sport. Confidential medical information is one of them. That why management has been less than forthcoming. We do not have a ‘right’ to know what’s up with CC.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 6 @ 4:56 PM ET
I think Bowman and his stab is at the NHL's highest level, but it's hard to forgive the Panarin trade. Hated it when it happened and now when you realise that they would have been able to keep him it only tastes worse.
- PetterKane


Keep him at 10.5 Million or 11mil?
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 6 @ 4:57 PM ET
Russian born and speaking players 'generally' like to play in locations where there is a reasonable sized Russian populace they can socialize with, converse in their own tongue and dine in restaurants that cater to their tastes in food. That's why the Rangers, Devils and Capitals have usually had quite a few Russians on their teams.

Places like Columbus, Buffalo, Nashville, Phoenix are backwaters in the middle of nowhere to those guys.

That said, Panarin might wind up in St. Louis with his pal Tarasenko.

- RickJ
Yep, big markets = bigger cities and more diversity. Panarin should not be faulted for wanting to go somewhere with a bigger Russian community in which to interact and find comfort.

Wasn't there a report that St. Louis already tried to trade for Panarin but it didn't go anywhere because Panarin wasn't likely to resign there?
Dieselhead
Location: CA
Joined: 11.01.2011

Jul 6 @ 4:59 PM ET
5) Positive Vibes: 17 seconds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-h46vxck4g
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 6 @ 5:03 PM ET
Safe to assume that CC starts on LTIR and Forsberg will back up Ward.
- z1990z


That's a question, right?


Not a safe assumption at all...
BlackhawkMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jul 6 @ 5:04 PM ET
Disagree. IF it's a severe vertigo/concussion issue, its possible that Crawford hasn't even worked out since 2017, much less been on the ice. If its alcohol/substance related, I'd imagine that physical activity/training is a part of the recovery process and he would be in the gym and on the ice training. At 33 years old, is it realistic to expect him to come back next fall and perform like he did in 2017? When's the last time he was in the gym? When's the last time he was on the ice stopping NHL shooters? Lot's of questions with some potentially less than ideal answers.....
- EnzoD


Maybe Khabibulin or Belfour are available?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 6 @ 5:05 PM ET
5) Positive Vibes: 17 seconds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-h46vxck4g

- Dieselhead


We’ll always have Paris....
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