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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Maybe the Blackhawks Do Have a Plan
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RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 4 @ 11:18 PM ET
I don't care if they add Jagr as long as it's only 1 yr. The club is seemingly rudderless to my eye and when they, whoever they is, do get an agreed upon plan my hope was there was no JVR or Neal signed for 5 yrs.
- Mr Ricochet


Lee Stempniak, Torrey Mitchell, Toby Enstrom come on down.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 4 @ 11:18 PM ET
Sure. IF they needed to cap hit the reach the cap floor at a minimal cost. Currently, there are no teams that meets that criteria.


To go even further, you mentioned 7 months, which isn't quite accurate. That type of move is made in the off-season. No team needs to reach the cap floor during the season since they have to be cap compliant during the season.

No one was taking on that deal last off-season without knowing for sure that Hossa was eligible for LTIR.

- Elbows15


There is probably a deal to be had, but the Hawks will probably have to take a bad contract in return. Just because teams are at the floor doesn't mean they won't take an opportunity to move salary to improve their bottom line.

I could see a team like NJD potentially unloading someone like Zajac or NYI wanting to ditch a contract like Ladd's. If they save 4-5 million in salary that is savings of real dollars. Not great and you may have more parts to a deal, but you can probably find a team willing to give you a roster player because they have the cap space and are willing to save some dough.

I don't think Chicago is hard pressed to move it right now. They'd like to, but they don't "have" to, so it will get easier to deal that space. The restructure of the team started last year with Panarin and Hjalmarsson deals, so maybe they internally have already accepted they won't likely win a cup this season, so no need to give up more to move Hossa's contract earlier.

SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jul 4 @ 11:21 PM ET
Calm down scooter....no need for name calling........I can read, right, and arithmetic with da best of dem.
You're all over the board on Hossa contract....what team is below floor that NEEDS hoss contract? Lemme help ya ....NONE

- dpard


Ugh.....again if they wanted to move it after the season ended they would have. If you read reports Lebrun powers there were talks. What held it up? No idea. It didn’t happen. If they, Hawks wanted it done, it would have been done. Just like many players before hossa.

It’s most likely not happening now and after getting burnt on the bickell deal it may not happen any time soon. As I don’t see them giving up a pick or decent prospect to make it happen. Could they? Sure. Will they? Highly doubt it.

I just realize it’s a rebuild. Adding Justin Faulk or any sexy name like that right now isn’t catapulting this team into the playoffs.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 4 @ 11:24 PM ET
There is probably a deal to be had, but the Hawks will probably have to take a bad contract in return. Just because teams are at the floor doesn't mean they won't take an opportunity to move salary to improve their bottom line.

I could see a team like NJD potentially unloading someone like Zajac or NYI wanting to ditch a contract like Ladd's. If they save 4-5 million in salary that is savings of real dollars. Not great and you may have more parts to a deal, but you can probably find a team willing to give you a roster player because they have the cap space and are willing to save some dough.

I don't think Chicago is hard pressed to move it right now. They'd like to, but they don't "have" to, so it will get easier to deal that space. The restructure of the team started last year with Panarin and Hjalmarsson deals, so maybe they internally have already accepted they won't likely win a cup this season, so no need to give up more to move Hossa's contract earlier.

- breadbag


Eugene Melnyk would likely sign off on a Hossa for Bobby Ryan trade in a millisecond. Especially in September when he sees his season ticket sales have topped out at about 5000.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jul 4 @ 11:24 PM ET
Sure. IF they needed to cap hit the reach the cap floor at a minimal cost. Currently, there are no teams that meets that criteria.


To go even further, you mentioned 7 months, which isn't quite accurate. That type of move is made in the off-season. No team needs to reach the cap floor during the season since they have to be cap compliant during the season.

No one was taking on that deal last off-season without knowing for sure that Hossa was eligible for LTIR.

- Elbows15


To bad deals ever get moved during the season? I’d have to look. I understand cap compliant. I’m sayinh they had 7 months to work on a deal. They take time.

And let’s see what happens up in Canada’s capital. Karlson goes it could make them a candidate. Especially if Ryan goes with them or
They trade another player on a separate deal.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jul 4 @ 11:26 PM ET
Eugene Melnyk would likely sign off on a Hossa for Bobby Ryan trade in a millisecond. Especially in September when he sees his season ticket sales have topped out at about 5000.
- RickJ


That franchise is in shambles. What a poop show.

Ryan Anderson karlson All could be gone.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 4 @ 11:26 PM ET
https://www.secondcityhockey.com/2018/7/4/17534692/blackhawks-prospect-ian-mitchell-nicolas-beaudin-canada-roster-2018-world-junior-summer-showcase

Mitchell and Beaudin are Team Canada invites for the 2018 World Junior Summer Showcase in late July. Barratt and Ess are invites for Team USA. Mitchell and Beaudin have bright futures on the Hawks blueline if they develop well. Similarly, Barratt could be a future agitating grinder in the mold of Burish, Fraser, and even Shaw. Don't know much about Ess (defenseman).

- AEL_Fox


Jake Wise is also a USA invite: https://teamusa.usahockey...u-s-original-camp-roster#
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 4 @ 11:28 PM ET
If the Hawks don't move Hossa, gotta wonder if they'll look to sign another "Cody Franson" like deal. Not saying they will get anything good, but it will be interesting to see who is a "tryout" this time camp rolls around if Hossa's money is still on the books.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 4 @ 11:41 PM ET
Jake Wise is also a USA invite: https://teamusa.usahockey...u-s-original-camp-roster#
- Mr Ricochet

Cool, thanks! Great to see more Hawk prospects get invites to these World Junior tourneys.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 4 @ 11:43 PM ET
If the Hawks don't move Hossa, gotta wonder if they'll look to sign another "Cody Franson" like deal. Not saying they will get anything good, but it will be interesting to see who is a "tryout" this time camp rolls around if Hossa's money is still on the books.
- breadbag

Was thinking the same thing earlier in the week, i.e. which NHLers could be potential PTOs for training camp this fall. One might think that the Hawks might actually convert some PTOs into 1-year minimal AAV contracts this year given the circumstances as opposed to prior years where basically no PTOs earned spots. Could be wrong about that.
DK002
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Evanston, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jul 5 @ 12:00 AM ET
When I saw “baby core”, the names associated with it, and “locking them up” all in the same sentence, I shot the milk from my morning cereal through my nose.

NOTHING about Schmaltz, ADB or any of those other names points to them coming close to half of the calibre of our over the hill group’s peak to suggest they are a group to build around.

Again, so far away these Hawks are. David Haugh’s article was spot on, and likely the sharpest assessment of this team by the Chicago “beat writers” in YEARS.

- Return of the Roar


Great post sir...and Rainman here's the link to the article...

http://www.chicagotribune...haugh-20180703-story.html

we'll see where the dust settles here...
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 5 @ 12:11 AM ET
Was thinking the same thing earlier in the week, i.e. which NHLers could be potential PTOs for training camp this fall. One might think that the Hawks might actually convert some PTOs into 1-year minimal AAV contracts this year given the circumstances as opposed to prior years where basically no PTOs earned spots. Could be wrong about that.
- AEL_Fox


Yeah, not much on the PTO front usually, but I wouldn't put it past them to have some kinda of a handshake deal with someone. I'd hope the young guys on the team improved enough to earn the playing time instead, but that could just be wishful thinking.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 5 @ 12:38 AM ET
Still confused

If on LTIR what is the Cap Hit ?

- Colbyboy

IIRC:

Savings off Hoss' cap hit = $5.275M - (league cap - team's payroll after opening night)

So if the team is $1.5M below the salary cap after opening night, they save $3.775M off Hoss' cap hit. Essentially that $1.5M they're below the cap after opening night, is Hoss' cap hit.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 5 @ 12:54 AM ET
Lee Stempniak, Torrey Mitchell, Toby Enstrom come on down.
- RickJ

Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 5 @ 12:55 AM ET
There is probably a deal to be had, but the Hawks will probably have to take a bad contract in return. Just because teams are at the floor doesn't mean they won't take an opportunity to move salary to improve their bottom line.

I could see a team like NJD potentially unloading someone like Zajac or NYI wanting to ditch a contract like Ladd's. If they save 4-5 million in salary that is savings of real dollars. Not great and you may have more parts to a deal, but you can probably find a team willing to give you a roster player because they have the cap space and are willing to save some dough.

I don't think Chicago is hard pressed to move it right now. They'd like to, but they don't "have" to, so it will get easier to deal that space. The restructure of the team started last year with Panarin and Hjalmarsson deals, so maybe they internally have already accepted they won't likely win a cup this season, so no need to give up more to move Hossa's contract earlier.

- breadbag


Why would the Hawks take on a bad contract? That is counterproductive.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 5 @ 1:00 AM ET
To bad deals ever get moved during the season? I’d have to look. I understand cap compliant. I’m sayinh they had 7 months to work on a deal. They take time.

And let’s see what happens up in Canada’s capital. Karlson goes it could make them a candidate. Especially if Ryan goes with them or
They trade another player on a separate deal.

- SteveRain

Bad deals get made all the time. Moving a LTIR is an off-season move. There is plenty to complain about but not wanting to piss away an asset to move a contract which does present some problems isn't really a hindrance at this point isn't one of them.

If its part of a larger trade, fine, but to any anything of value at this point doesn't seem worth it to me.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 1:04 AM ET
Jake Wise is also a USA invite:
- Mr Ricochet

Wise is one of the players I'm most excited about in terms of drafted / not signed kids. I was recently re-reading an article about Wise done by the Athletic before the draft and it makes it sound like he could end up a steal. He has a Saad like story – injury issues made him fall in the draft despite originally being one of the best of his age group. One of the other 1st round US players said he thought Wise would be the "biggest sleeper in the draft."

His development has been on pace with guys like Wahlstrom and Farabee, both of whom some project to be only a year away from the NHL, so we might see Wise around the same time. Sounds like he and Barrett could be battling for 3C role in the near future with upside to slot higher.

Here’s a section I really liked:

All of Appert, Cole, Luongo, and Monaghan [of the USDP] describe Wise as a competitive 200-foot centre who is excellent defensively, strong on faceoffs, and one of the team’s best penalty killers. He was routinely used as their shutdown centre and late-game option. Despite his height (Wise measured 5-foot-10 and weighed more than 190 pounds at the combine), he’s also got a mean, physical edge. They say he’s the classic northeast kid — an outgoing, Type A rink rat who will engage with anyone. They wish they could have kept him longer, and told him that at their recent banquet.

Defensive gifts aside, he was also still one of the program’s most gifted players — and he did it without any cheat in his game and minimal offensive zone starts, they’ll point out.

"He’s very talented offensively. As he continues to grow and mature as a player, he’ll evolve into the mid-sized, offensively dynamic, fast, hard-nosed player. That’s where he projects," Appert said, comparing him to Brad Marchand.


Link: https://theathletic.com/3...er-in-the-2018-nhl-draft/

Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 5 @ 1:16 AM ET
Wise is one of the players I'm most excited about in terms of drafted / not signed kids. I was recently re-reading an article about Wise done by the Athletic before the draft and it makes it sound like he could end up a steal. He has a Saad like story – injury issues made him fall in the draft despite originally being one of the best of his age group. One of the other 1st round US players said he thought Wise would be the "biggest sleeper in the draft."

His development has been on pace with guys like Wahlstrom and Farabee, both of whom some project to be only a year away from the NHL, so we might see Wise around the same time. Sounds like he and Barrett could be battling for 3C role in the near future with upside to slot higher.

Here’s a section I really liked:

All of Appert, Cole, Luongo, and Monaghan

- L_B_R[of the USDP] describe Wise as a competitive 200-foot centre who is excellent defensively, strong on faceoffs, and one of the team’s best penalty killers. He was routinely used as their shutdown centre and late-game option. Despite his height (Wise measured 5-foot-10 and weighed more than 190 pounds at the combine), he’s also got a mean, physical edge. They say he’s the classic northeast kid — an outgoing, Type A rink rat who will engage with anyone. They wish they could have kept him longer, and told him that at their recent banquet.

Defensive gifts aside, he was also still one of the program’s most gifted players — and he did it without any cheat in his game and minimal offensive zone starts, they’ll point out.

"He’s very talented offensively. As he continues to grow and mature as a player, he’ll evolve into the mid-sized, offensively dynamic, fast, hard-nosed player. That’s where he projects," Appert said, comparing him to Brad Marchand.


Link: https://theathletic.com/3...er-in-the-2018-nhl-draft/

Thanks for sharing this. I'm excited about both Wise and Barratt. If they both make it to the NHL, I could see Wise sticking at center either as a very strong and possibly elite 3C or an above average 2C while Barratt converted as a scrappy bottom-6 winger.

One thing I really like about both of them is that they're fiery bulldogs on the ice but really down to earth and humble off it. You have to love that: lay it all out on the ice and go balls to the wall yet be a genuinely good and likable kid away from the rink.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 5 @ 1:33 AM ET
If OTT moves Karlsson they would potentially be in a position to take on Hossa’s contract to meet the floor while saving $4.25MM in cash on Hossa and Karlsson’s $6.5MM.

OTT was trying to package Karlsson and Ryan, but that means a buyer would have to commit to almost $14MM in cap hit.

Aside from that, I see no takers without some sugar to help the medicine go down, either in picks/prospects or bad money coming back. Problem is the Hawks have only $2MM in cap left, and can go 10% over until day one.

They could in theory sign about $5MM before the season starts, and be able to carry Hossa’s LTIR money another season, but be out of money to work any signings or trades unless they are revenue neutral, because they still have reserve enough cap to bring at least two or three forwards up from Rockford to round out the four lines up front.

Maybe Karlsson coming here for one year in exchange for Hossa and some pick/prospect helps us out some for this year. Could be why no move with Karlsson has taken place yet....
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 5 @ 1:36 AM ET
Bad deals get made all the time. Moving a LTIR is an off-season move. There is plenty to complain about but not wanting to piss away an asset to move a contract which does present some problems isn't really a hindrance at this point isn't one of them.

If its part of a larger trade, fine, but to any anything of value at this point doesn't seem worth it to me.

- Elbows15


Hossa + Forsling + Oesterle for Frolik
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 1:53 AM ET
To bad deals ever get moved during the season? I’d have to look. I understand cap compliant. I’m sayinh they had 7 months to work on a deal. They take time.

And let’s see what happens up in Canada’s capital. Karlson goes it could make them a candidate. Especially if Ryan goes with them or
They trade another player on a separate deal.

- SteveRain

Sometimes bad contracts are moved at the TDL so a team can make a bigger move, but it usually costs a pretty penny. I've never heard of a team that isn't in contention making a move like that, though, because the price is typically higher. I don't think anyone on LTIR is moved in season, but idk for sure. And even still, most teams knew right around where the cap floor would be and not many were ever going to under, so there wasn't much incentive for them to do anything in a hurry. I'm guessing most teams wanted at least the #27 for take Hossa, if not more. If so, I'm glad nothing was done - the only options in FA that were any good priced themselves too high even with more cap room or asked for way too much term.

Anyway, just for kicks, I looked at some of the most recent moves regarding players on IR who were traded. Vegas was the team taking on a bunch of LTIR players last summer, though they themselves only put them on IR since they didn't need the space.

The most comparable to Hossa was David Clarkson. Vegas got to draft Karlsson and added in a 2017 1st (#24) + 2019 2nd in return for Vegas also taking Clarkson and to not touch Korpisalo or Josh Anderson. Clarkson's cap hit was $5.25m for an additional 3 years but insurance covers all but 20% of his salary, so Vegas only has to pay 1.4m in 2017-18, $950k in 2018-19 and $650k in 2019-20.

Then there was Grabovski who the Islanders gave up a 2017 1st, 2019 2nd, and prospect Jake Bischoff. Salary was $5m but it's unknown if any was paid by insurance or not.

Because of the expansion draft, both these deals happened in June and Datsyuk's happened at the draft because 1st rounds were needed, but some LTIR trades seem to happen later in the season. Like Bolland's.

In 2016, Datsyuk + 2016 1st (#16) + Vitale were traded for 2016 1st (#20) + 2016 2nd (#53). Vitale was included due to needing to send a contract back to Detroit. Datsyuk was paid nothing. Later that summer in August, Bolland + Lawson Crouse (former 11th overall 2015) were traded for a 2017 3rd + conditional 2018 2nd were traded to Arizona. Bolland's cap hit was $5.5m but they only had to pay $1.1m thanks to insurance. 2016 was the season Arizona was desperate to reach the cap floor. Maybe the Sens end up desperate as well toward the end of the summer if Karlsson is move but then Bolland is a decent comparable - that move took a top prospect but got back a couple of picks.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 5 @ 2:40 AM ET
IIRC:

Savings off Hoss' cap hit = $5.275M - (league cap - team's payroll after opening night)

So if the team is $1.5M below the salary cap after opening night, they save $3.775M off Hoss' cap hit. Essentially that $1.5M they're below the cap after opening night, is Hoss' cap hit.

- blackhawk24


Easiest way to calculate it if he is put on LTIR day 1 of the season is:

Hawks Cap Payroll on Day 1
+
Hossa's cap hit
=
Hawks new Salary Cap.

So if Hawks are 1.5m under the salary cap with Hossa, and LTIR him, they are now allowed to spend up to 83.275 (78m + 5.275m) total in salary cap dollars, but Hossa counts towards that total.

The reason it sucks is where it gets complicated; because the salary cap is actually calculated as a daily thing not yearly thing by the league, and each day of the season the Hawks are viewed as having replaced Hossa. So if the league season is 100 days long (not actual length, for sake of calculation), Hossa's viewed as having a cap hit of 52,750 a day. With him on LTIR, you can pay some other player that 52k a day. But if you don't pay anyone Hossa's 52k the first 50 days of the season, you don't get to pay someone 104k the second 50 days of the season. You are viewed as having replaced him each day regardless of whether you spend the money or not.

This matters because, using above numbers, if you sign someone making 3.775m to replace Hossa the day you place him on LTIR, you are 1.5m under your LTIR cap ceiling. Or you're paying 37k of Hossa's 52k each day to replace him, and not using 15k of it. But come trade deadline (for sake of calculation, let's say this happens with exactly 1/3 of the season left) you still can only spend an extra 15k a day, or add someone making 1.5m for the entire year. Contrast that with, if Hossa had been healthy, and you had spent the year 1.5m under the normal cap, or spending 15k a day less than the cap, come trade deadline you could add someone making 4.5m for the entire year. Because the 45k a day they are making would only total 1.5m in the last third of the season. That's what is meant when it's said LTIR doesn't "snowball." You are viewed as having spent the LTIR allowance for a player every day, whether you did or not.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 5 @ 3:05 AM ET
They’ve had 7 months to move hossa being conservative when nhl allowed him to go on ltir. Could be a little less or a little longer in regards to time.

They haven’t. And I don’t see them doing it now because a team will want a pick or prospect and hawks have no intention on doing it. So if they believed they had a chance at a cup that minimal pick or prospect wouldn’t have stood in a way of adding a top ufa. That’s my point. That’s the tell. This ufa year was eerily similar to 2011.

Oh we can all talk ourselves into how if this That or All this happens they COULD contend. But imo lot less needs to happen for them to miss playoffs again then they need to go right to make the dance.

Not upset about it. But not going to sugarcoat it either. The ward nmc May be the dumbest thing bowman has done. Next to trading multiple pick for timmonen who was done before he even stepped foot in the room.

- SteveRain


Yes - it seems they understand that a lot needs to go right for them to contend for a Cup this year - rebounds from the core, quality jumps from the youngsters - and that there isn’t a reasonably acquired free agent that would get them there without a lot of other work.

That being the case - no reason to push moving Hossa’s contract if it requires a quality accompanying high quality asset.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 5 @ 7:29 AM ET
Missed it is there a link to the quote?
- walleyeb1


Wasn't exactly what he said, it was how he said it.

When they pressed him a bit on CC, he answered it something like - he's like every other player, they are off now, and will be back on the ice for training camp, then we'll see him, but right now, we haven't seen him but we think he'll be there.

But, he was very shaky in his voice when explaining it.
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 5 @ 7:59 AM ET

- Elbows15

Stempniak is a good third line player who at least get you a second or third round draft pick at the trade deadline. For a minimal one-year contract, I don't see what the problem would be signing him. Letestu would be a good Faceoff guy who also could be flipped at the deadline if the Hawks were out of contention
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