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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Maybe the Blackhawks Do Have a Plan
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Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 5 @ 11:01 AM ET
Where do you get $3.375?

5.275 + 3.85 = 9.125
3.25 + 4.5 = 7.75
Difference = 1.375

Even if you add in Forsling (which you shouldn't since he doesn't count against the cap currently) it's $2.25m

- L_B_R


Because you have to add the $2MM in space they still have
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 5 @ 11:03 AM ET
Wow this would be great. I believe Smith has jam. Stralman is just what our D needs for at least this year.
- Popsghostly


I've seen a few people say this about Stralman, but not knowing much about him, why is he what we need? We've talked about needing size and hitting, and I've seen commented more than a few times how we lack size. Stralman is 5'11", 190. I feel like moving Murphy (the only defender to hit on purpose), is just going back to the finesse team that has been ripped apart the past few months.

Again, I honestly don't know much about Stralman's game, so would like to know more.
gazza53
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 09.15.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:06 AM ET
UPDATE: "a lot of moving parts here, but Hawks are aggressively trying to move Hossa's contract (heard that before) to maybe help out a team that is trying to acquire a big contract."


Heard that above from one of my contacts.

My thinking would be, it's obviously Karlsson, although my guy didn't want to specify anything.

Could something like this work for all parties:

1) CHI trades Hossa, Forsling and Connor Murphy for Zack Smith

- Justin Lowe[/b
]: OTT gets a RHD at cost certainty that could slide into there top 4. They also get Forsling who could play this year for them... all while having CHI take Z. Smith off their hands whom they've been trying to move.

2) CHI trades picks/prospects to Tampa Bay for Anton Stralman: Stralman is a RHD and a UFA after this year. He's a perfect style to play alongside Duncan Keith. With this move, it frees up $$ for Yzerman to acquire and extend Erik Kalrsson.

Just spitballing here, but this Karlsson acquisition is getting interesting with only a few teams still in the mix.

Tampa really wants to make a move of this magnitude to counter what Toronto did with the Tavares signing.


So we trade Hammer for nothing, SB at his finest

What picks/prospects to Tampa for Stralman?

Will Q play either/both Stralman-Smith?
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:06 AM ET
That first trade is a big overpayment to move Hossa imo. Forsling may be what is needed to get Hossa moved but the rest just breaks down. Maybe if it was Pageau instead who is younger, it'd be different but Zack Smith is not worth that. It'd be like having given up Hjammer for Zack Smith? Really?? Moving a young top 4 RD for a 4C is not a good look unless you're making space for someone else that will be a long term solution. Bringing me to Stralman...

I really like Stralman, he's really great, but he's going to want around Seabrook money on his next deal, which will start when he's 33. Even if he only wants 5 years, that's another player locked up for huge dollars until he's 38. The same that complain about big contracts with old players like this?? Unless they think Stralman is the last piece to being a cup contender this season, they're better off keeping Murphy at his cap hit.

- L_B_R


Hey LBR - I think it's going to take a big overpayment for someone to take Hossa.

I know they have been trying for a while and it's not "going well". Like not even close. No one is going to do this team any favours + you have to factor in the uncertainty and burden that comes along with Hossa. Will the league reneg his LTIR status and leave the acquiring team on "the salary cap bill" for his 5.25M?

I'm with you on Stralman. He's would be a great pickup. However, he might only be an acquisition for this year. Maybe they could get a younger player with him so the trade isn't a complete wash after this year.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jul 5 @ 11:07 AM ET
UPDATE: "a lot of moving parts here, but Hawks are aggressively trying to move Hossa's contract (heard that before) to maybe help out a team that is trying to acquire a big contract."


Heard that above from one of my contacts.

My thinking would be, it's obviously Karlsson, although my guy didn't want to specify anything.

Could something like this work for all parties:

1) CHI trades Hossa, Forsling and Connor Murphy for Zack Smith : OTT gets a RHD at cost certainty that could slide into there top 4. They also get Forsling who could play this year for them... all while having CHI take Z. Smith off their hands whom they've been trying to move.

2) CHI trades picks/prospects to Tampa Bay for Anton Stralman: Stralman is a RHD and a UFA after this year. He's a perfect style to play alongside Duncan Keith. With this move, it frees up $$ for Yzerman to acquire and extend Erik Kalrsson.

Just spitballing here, but this Karlsson acquisition is getting interesting with only a few teams still in the mix.

Tampa really wants to make a move of this magnitude to counter what Toronto did with the Tavares signing.

- Justin Lowe


Honestly of all the teams out there, and their salary cap position I'm surprised Toronto isn't making a play for Karlsson?
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:08 AM ET
So we trade Hammer for nothing, SB at his finest

What picks/prospects to Tampa for Stralman?

Will Q play either/both Stralman-Smith?

- gazza53


It seems like this is where we might be heading.

And maybe not... maybe Q just wants to play the young guys.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 5 @ 11:09 AM ET
UPDATE: "a lot of moving parts here, but Hawks are aggressively trying to move Hossa's contract (heard that before) to maybe help out a team that is trying to acquire a big contract."


Heard that above from one of my contacts.

My thinking would be, it's obviously Karlsson, although my guy didn't want to specify anything.

Could something like this work for all parties:

1) CHI trades Hossa, Forsling and Connor Murphy for Zack Smith : OTT gets a RHD at cost certainty that could slide into there top 4. They also get Forsling who could play this year for them... all while having CHI take Z. Smith off their hands whom they've been trying to move.

2) CHI trades picks/prospects to Tampa Bay for Anton Stralman: Stralman is a RHD and a UFA after this year. He's a perfect style to play alongside Duncan Keith. With this move, it frees up $$ for Yzerman to acquire and extend Erik Kalrsson.

Just spitballing here, but this Karlsson acquisition is getting interesting with only a few teams still in the mix.

Tampa really wants to make a move of this magnitude to counter what Toronto did with the Tavares signing.

- Justin Lowe


I like the Ottawa deal, but to be honest I'm not ready to give up on Murphy yet. Maybe swap him out for Rutta or Gustafsson.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:09 AM ET
Honestly of all the teams out there, and their salary cap position I'm surprised Toronto isn't making a play for Karlsson?
- BetweenTheDots


Karlsson wants to go to a team where he can play past this year. TOR couldn't make that promise with Marner and Matthews both up in 2019-20.

Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 5 @ 11:10 AM ET
That first trade is a big overpayment to move Hossa imo. Forsling may be what is needed to get Hossa moved but the rest just breaks down. Maybe if it was Pageau instead who is younger, it'd be different but Zack Smith is not worth that. It'd be like having given up Hjammer for Zack Smith? Really?? Moving a young top 4 RD for a 4C is not a good look unless you're making space for someone else that will be a long term solution. Bringing me to Stralman...

I really like Stralman, he's really great, but he's going to want around Seabrook money on his next deal, which will start when he's 33. Even if he only wants 5 years, that's another player locked up for huge dollars until he's 38. The same that complain about big contracts with old players like this?? Unless they think Stralman is the last piece to being a cup contender this season, they're better off keeping Murphy at his cap hit.

- L_B_R


Nothing here that doesn't make good sense. I always felt it was gonna take the vastly underrated prospect by Hawks fans, Forsling, to move Hossa money and think OTT is the fit. ....... Just a matter of working out the details. Smith at 30 with 3 yrs left at 3+mil isn't attractive to me. Understand the Hawks won't get full value but that's what Forsling is for.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 5 @ 11:10 AM ET
No way the Hawks should move Saad for Faulk:



L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:11 AM ET
Its about cap space and flexibility too. Its about moving Hossa’s deal first and foremost.

They lose Murphy’s three more years for a huge upgrade in Stralman that has an expiring contract. Now they have options: resign him as part of the future, deal him later, or let him go.

They get some center depth - we all would rather have Pageau, but not going to happen as Melnyk wants to move bigger contracts.

And oh yeah - Murphy sucks. Why stay in a nearly $4MM AAV with guy who you still have to coach up to whatever his level is?

- Return of the Roar

I still don't get the appeal of cap space for the sake of cap space. First, it's less than $1.5m in cap space so okay? And second, if it takes both the best LD prospect and a young top 4 RD to move Hossa, then don't do it. That's too much. Zack Smith in return does not negate the lopsided value in that trade.

And I looooove the idea of Stralman, but resigning him would eat more cap space than you've freed via Hossa/Murphy move plus some, so you're just back into cap hell with an $3m+ 4C and another aging player on a high cap hit contract. Otoh, Stralman had a NTC btw which would really limit any TDL/in-season trade if they cannot afford to resign him. If Stralman's deal was for 2-3 season, I'd have absolutely no complaints with the trade but it's not and thus makes it not useful.

Also, Murphy does not suck - he may not fit Q's system, but as a young top 4 RD, he has more value than just cap space.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:11 AM ET
Karlsson to TB is looking more realistic.


@SunDoniB (OTTAWA Beat writer)

A source who has a great batting average says he feels "very comfortable" with a source that tells him Karlsson will be traded to the #TBLightning
Stay tuned. #senators
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 5 @ 11:12 AM ET
I'm not sure how exact it is, but here is TSN's Tavares calculator: https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/tavares-calculator
- L_B_R


What doesn't make sense to me is that the calculator seems not to take into effect ANY state/local taxes paid for games played in states with income taxes.

The tax rate shown for Dallas and TB, for instance, is 36.4% - which, for Tavares at $11MM per year, would be what he would pay in federal taxes.

No provision for any state income taxes based on games played in other states, nor for any sales taxes or property taxes (both of which can substitute for state income taxes), etc.

So - I'm not sure of the value of this calculator.

In any case, the higher-value UFAs this summer seem to be not very concerned with the state tax implications than with going where they wanted to go.
Tyler Cameron
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 10.31.2017

Jul 5 @ 11:13 AM ET
Also this...

@NicholsOnHockey
Friedman: “I’d heard Chicago had been in on Faulk, but I heard the hangup there was Brandon Saad; that Carolina wanted Saad, and Chicago didn’t want to do that.” #Blackhawks #Canes



.... honestly sometimes it's the trades you don't make that work out best.

I wouldn't move Saad right now. I think he's poised for a big bounceback and trading him just creates another hole in this lineup.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:13 AM ET
Because you have to add the $2MM in space they still have
- Return of the Roar

So they already have that with Hossa/Murphy on the team too. Is it really worth an extra $1.3m to throw Murphy away for nothing OR end up with a total higher cap hit the following with another aging defensemen on a deal until he'd in his late 30s + a 4C making over $3m?

If Stralman would resign for the same value or only a little more or something, I'd be so down, even at his age. He is great. What I do not like is throwing away two valuable assets for what amounts to possibly nothing. Hossa + Forsling is whatever, that's a Bolland + Crouse kind of thing, it might just be the price - but Murphy should not be included imo.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 5 @ 11:15 AM ET
I've seen a few people say this about Stralman, but not knowing much about him, why is he what we need? We've talked about needing size and hitting, and I've seen commented more than a few times how we lack size. Stralman is 5'11", 190. I feel like moving Murphy (the only defender to hit on purpose), is just going back to the finesse team that has been ripped apart the past few months.

Again, I honestly don't know much about Stralman's game, so would like to know more.

- HawksHype


A money in the bank, take few risks, stay at home Dman that covers nicely for a rover type D partner, has back class of a couple 30+ point seasons, is a right shot, always in the + column, not adverse to contact but not a hitter per say, average skater IIRC.

A steady Dman.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:17 AM ET
That first trade is a big overpayment to move Hossa imo. Forsling may be what is needed to get Hossa moved but the rest just breaks down. Maybe if it was Pageau instead who is younger, it'd be different but Zack Smith is not worth that. It'd be like having given up Hjammer for Zack Smith? Really?? Moving a young top 4 RD for a 4C is not a good look unless you're making space for someone else that will be a long term solution. Bringing me to Stralman...

I really like Stralman, he's really great, but he's going to want around Seabrook money on his next deal, which will start when he's 33. Even if he only wants 5 years, that's another player locked up for huge dollars until he's 38. The same that complain about big contracts with old players like this?? Unless they think Stralman is the last piece to being a cup contender this season, they're better off keeping Murphy at his cap hit.

- L_B_R


If the 2018-19 version of the Blackhawks make a deep run into the playoffs the FO may be willing to keep them together for another run but I doubt they give Stralman much term unless Seabrook is moved. Maybe they propose a one year overpay and see if he bites. It seems to me the powers that be are firmly against taking on a lot of future cap hit, especially for older guys. They’d probably be happy to move Murphy. The proposed moves make sense if a real rebuild is a year or two away (meaning moving some of 2, 7, 19, and 50.)
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 5 @ 11:18 AM ET
So they already have that with Hossa/Murphy on the team too. Is it really worth an extra $1.3m to throw Murphy away for nothing OR end up with a total higher cap hit the following with another aging defensemen on a deal until he'd in his late 30s + a 4C making over $3m?

If Stralman would resign for the same value or only a little more or something, I'd be so down, even at his age. What I do not like is throwing away two valuable assets for what amounts to possibly nothing. Hossa + Forsling is whatever, that's a Bolland + Crouse kind of thing, but Murphy should not be included imo.

- L_B_R


But that $2MM they have now isnt enough to ice a full squad. They need three guys from Rockford
Q-stache
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 11.20.2015

Jul 5 @ 11:19 AM ET
Hey LBR - I think it's going to take a big overpayment for someone to take Hossa.

I know they have been trying for a while and it's not "going well". Like not even close. No one is going to do this team any favours + you have to factor in the uncertainty and burden that comes along with Hossa. Will the league reneg his LTIR status and leave the acquiring team on "the salary cap bill" for his 5.25M?

I'm with you on Stralman. He's would be a great pickup. However, he might only be an acquisition for this year. Maybe they could get a younger player with him so the trade isn't a complete wash after this year.

- Justin Lowe


Not to be tinfoil hat about the situation, but I have to wonder if some of this reluctance is being pushed by the league. Obviously they are not happy about this loophole/contract situation and are unable to do anything about it (see Pronger)

Justin, do you think that the league has sent out any quiet or not-so-quiet memo's discouraging teams from taking a Hossa trade? The Hawks have not been relevant contenders the last two years, which makes me wonder why teams would "not want to do the Hawks any favors."
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:19 AM ET
If the 2018-19 version of the Blackhawks make a deep run into the playoffs the FO may be willing to keep them together for another run but I doubt they give Stralman much term unless Seabrook is moved. Maybe they propose a one year overpay and see if he bites. It seems to me the powers that be are firmly against taking on a lot of future cap hit, especially for older guys. They’d probably be happy to move Murphy. The proposed moves make sense if a real rebuild is a year or two away (meaning moving some of 2, 7, 19, and 50.)
- matt_ahrens

I'm sure they'd like to move Murphy, but not for the possibility of nothing in return. Stralman would be better off being traded for assets then signing at a lower cap hit / higher salary back in Tampa after the one season. Also if there was a full rebuild in motion, they would be trying to trade Murphy for picks and prospects, not an expiring contract.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:22 AM ET
But that $2MM they have now isnt enough to ice a full squad. They need three guys from Rockford
- Return of the Roar

That $2m includes 9 d-men and 3 goalies as well. Simply replace Boqvist and Hillman who are included in the CapFriendly estimate with two players from Rockford with similar cap hits and you're already at 12 forwards and still have $2m for a 3rd even if they don't trade or send down Forsberg.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:22 AM ET
Hey LBR - I think it's going to take a big overpayment for someone to take Hossa.

I know they have been trying for a while and it's not "going well". Like not even close. No one is going to do this team any favours + you have to factor in the uncertainty and burden that comes along with Hossa. Will the league reneg his LTIR status and leave the acquiring team on "the salary cap bill" for his 5.25M?

I'm with you on Stralman. He's would be a great pickup. However, he might only be an acquisition for this year. Maybe they could get a younger player with him so the trade isn't a complete wash after this year.

- Justin Lowe



If this season doesn’t go well the Blackhawks will be sellers at the TDL, maybe get something for him then..
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jul 5 @ 11:23 AM ET
Karlsson wants to go to a team where he can play past this year. TOR couldn't make that promise with Marner and Matthews both up in 2019-20.
- Justin Lowe


I really hope the Hawks don't make either deal, i don't understand the urgency? If the team is in the playoff hunt they will have cap space to make a trade, if they are not in the playoff race Chicago can be a salary dump plus draft picks on an expiring contract. Win (frank)ing win, don't give up one of your young assets to make this deal.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 5 @ 11:26 AM ET
Hey LBR - I think it's going to take a big overpayment for someone to take Hossa.

I know they have been trying for a while and it's not "going well". Like not even close. No one is going to do this team any favours + you have to factor in the uncertainty and burden that comes along with Hossa. Will the league reneg his LTIR status and leave the acquiring team on "the salary cap bill" for his 5.25M?

I'm with you on Stralman. He's would be a great pickup. However, he might only be an acquisition for this year. Maybe they could get a younger player with him so the trade isn't a complete wash after this year.

- Justin Lowe

If it takes a big overpayment to move Hossa, then they shouldn't do it. Pittsburgh won two Cups with Dupis on LTIR so the Hawks should not be so desperate to move Hossa that they not only throw in two valuable assets but also take back a bad contract. Unless the move to free up cap space is going to significantly up the possibility of being a contender this season or next, just hold onto Hossa. Stralman alone does not move the needle enough for this season imo and potentially losing him for nothing in addition to having to give up other assets/picks sounds like a waste of a lot of assets for cap space - and I say that as a huge fan of Stralman.
HawksHype
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.08.2011

Jul 5 @ 11:28 AM ET
A money in the bank, take few risks, stay at home Dman that covers nicely for a rover type D partner, has back class of a couple 30+ point seasons, is a right shot, always in the + column, not adverse to contact but not a hitter per say, average skater IIRC.

A steady Dman.

- Mr Ricochet


Thanks for the info! Then I agree, what the Hawks need badly. I would be happy to add him, but I would be even happier by not giving up Murphy. I actually like Murphy and think given some steady time in this system, he can exceed. Adding Stralman (based on your description) and keeping Murphy would sound like a rock solid blue line.

Keith, Seabs, Murphy, Stralman, Joker, Forsling, Manning, Rutta, Hillman, etc.

Seems like a good mix of old/young, hopefully assist the development.
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