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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Ideal Free Agency Frenzy for Blackhawks
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Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jul 1 @ 5:18 PM ET
I think I'm better at valuing term better than cap hit, understanding the two go together to find balance, and admit I'm ignorant for the most part on bridge deals.

Wonder what the comparables might be for a Schmaltz type player? 5+ for 6 yrs seems solid for the Hawks tho.

- Mr Ricochet


A comparable recently to me would be Brandon Saad. He got a 6/6 deal after putting up 23 goals 29 assists 52 points for the Hawks in 2014-15. Both are very good two-way players and Schmaltz can play center as well as the wing.

Saad was a more proven player. He got his deal after 3 seasons in the NHL (2012-13 being a lockout shortened campaign)
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jul 1 @ 5:19 PM ET
You totally missed the point. Bickell should have NOT BEEN TRADED period. He only had 1 year to go on that deal. You figure out a way to prevent having to move TT just to get someone to eat 1 year of a 4 million dollar cap hit. That was an "overpay" for just 1 year. If Bicks still had 3 or 4 left, then maybe you up the ante', but typical Bowman just is a bad negotiator.
- kwolf68


The deal sure seems similar to the deal the Jets and Penguins made earlier this week. Armia and Sheary are 2 up and coming players I'm sure those teams didn't want to give up but had to, to make cap space, unless I'm missing something?
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jul 1 @ 5:19 PM ET
wow...a 39 year old bottom six guy...WHY

haven't they enough of young bottom sixers

Ward??? with crawford a big unknown...

Manning...an experienced 5-6 guy to join the hawks stable of bottom pairing guys...

call me unimpressed...but hey this team looks like 85 pts at best...can't wait
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 1 @ 5:19 PM ET
Hammer was a warrior. Wasn't Hammer's contract the offer sheet signed from San Jose the Hawks matched? Or was there some other deal in there somewhere?
- kwolf68


Don't remember but do remember him saying at 4 mil per my family is secure for life, an extra million won't change that.

You can scour the internets for awhile before you find words like that come out of an athletes mouth.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:19 PM ET
You mean like this, from a paid NHL beat writer?

The public xG models are absolutely more descriptive of what occurred on a player’s watch in a specific game than an “every shot is equal” stat like Corsi. But over the long haul, Corsi has been found to be a superior measure in terms of evaluating players (in comparison to the public models at least), due to a combination of two factors: shot quality itself is subject to randomness, and the current xG models are currently incomplete as detailed tracking data (such as pre-shot movement and passes) do not exist yet for all 31 NHL teams. At the moment, Corsi is the better stat to trust.

- Mr Ricochet


No, I meant this
When he allowed a shot against, it was almost always the highest danger and his team was just better when he wasn't on the ice in this regard. That's worrisome.

"Manning helped his team to win the territorial battle, but struggled to push them to a shot quality edge" is a perfect summary from the article.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 1 @ 5:19 PM ET
Roar, it's about getting ahead of the cap curve and getting value. If the club determines Schmaltz, or any soon to be RFA 's, is the real deal you go ahead and pull the trigger early saving money later. No?
- Mr Ricochet


So how many empirical examples of that stellar eye for value and getting ahead of the curve can we credit to Bowman?

Mic drop
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:21 PM ET
Hammer was a warrior. Wasn't Hammer's contract the offer sheet signed from San Jose the Hawks matched? Or was there some other deal in there somewhere?
- kwolf68

Yes. Then he signed the extension he is currently playing out.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 1 @ 5:21 PM ET
A comparable recently to me would be Brandon Saad. He got a 6/6 deal after putting up 23 goals 29 assists 52 points for the Hawks in 2014-15. Both are very good two-way players and Schmaltz can play center as well as the wing.

Saad was a more proven player. He got his deal after 3 seasons in the NHL (2012-13 being a lockout shortened campaign)

- Hawks_49


That was quick, and yea seems like a good comparable. Saad's contract is old so would 6 mil be enough for Schmaltz?
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jul 1 @ 5:21 PM ET
Don't remember but do remember him saying at 4 mil per my family is secure for life, an extra million won't change that.

You can scour the internets for awhile before you find words like that come out of an athletes mouth.

- Mr Ricochet


I seem to recall something like that too. I am very happy he got another solid, though short, deal with the Yotes. He's got 10 million for 2 and I suspect he'll probably get another 1, albeit smaller, after that.

Hammer, as you said, is the one guy who sacrificed salary and without HIM there are no Cups (or maybe 2 less), even though people like to point to the multi billion dollar core as the "only" reason for Cups.

I think the Coyotes have a legit shot at the playoffs next year, they have a ton of good, young talent.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jul 1 @ 5:22 PM ET
That was quick, and yea seems like a good comparable. Saad's contract is old so would 6 mil be enough for Schmaltz?
- Mr Ricochet


Age of the deal means nothing.

Kane/Toews/Tavares all basically get same thing, yet Kane/Toews signed 3 years ago. Although this is Bowman math.

6 x 6 for Schmaltz having 1 good year is an overpay.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jul 1 @ 5:23 PM ET
Age of the deal means nothing.

Kane/Toews/Tavares all basically get same thing, yet Kane/Toews signed 3 years ago. Although this is Bowman math.

- kwolf68


Yep. Should be a 6/6 deal if Nick wants long term.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:23 PM ET
We can debate Manning all day but in the end, he is something the Hawks didn't need. Nor is he worth a multi year deal in excess of 2M.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:25 PM ET
I seem to recall something like that too. I am very happy he got another solid, though short, deal with the Yotes. He's got 10 million for 2 and I suspect he'll probably get another 1, albeit smaller, after that.

Hammer, as you said, is the one guy who sacrificed salary and without HIM there are no Cups (or maybe 2 less), even though people like to point to the multi billion dollar core as the "only" reason for Cups.

I think the Coyotes have a legit shot at the playoffs next year, they have a ton of good, young talent.

- kwolf68

Hammer was always considered part of that core though.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 1 @ 5:25 PM ET
So how many empirical examples of that stellar eye for value and getting ahead of the curve can we credit to Bowman?

Mic drop

- Return of the Roar


Well if you use the Teows/Kane model that Stevie Y showed was in error or the Seabs model, yea I'm a bit nervous. In theory getting a core guy locked up early makes sense. I guess the execution is the sticky part.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jul 1 @ 5:25 PM ET
Yep. Should be a 6/6 deal if Nick wants long term.
- Hawks_49


6 years at 5 million per would be a good deal.

if he wants 6 million then it should be shorter term.

Maybe I'd feel differently if we were not paying a third pairing D-man 6.8 million per year, a 50 point center 10.5
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 1 @ 5:26 PM ET
Watch for trade dominoes now that Tavares is signed. Had a couple people tell me to watch for CHI/NYI maybe to connect on something.

Lots of chatter around Karlsson, Pacioretty and Skinner.

- Justin Lowe



Anisimov for Leddy.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:26 PM ET
Age of the deal means nothing.

Kane/Toews/Tavares all basically get same thing, yet Kane/Toews signed 3 years ago. Although this is Bowman math.

6 x 6 for Schmaltz having 1 good year is an overpay.

- kwolf68

Its a risk either way. What if he goes out and puts up 65 points? He certainly is capable. How much does the price go up?
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jul 1 @ 5:26 PM ET

Hawks are now an afterthought franchise, but it's better than Ottawa or the Islanders. Those programs have almost no hope.
Hawkster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Quebec , QC
Joined: 06.13.2008

Jul 1 @ 5:27 PM ET
Been away for a bit. So...what'd I miss?
- HawkintheD


Zero, zilch, nada, nothing
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jul 1 @ 5:29 PM ET
6 years at 5 million per would be a good deal.

if he wants 6 million then it should be shorter term.

Maybe I'd feel differently if we were not paying a third pairing D-man 6.8 million per year, a 50 point center 10.5

- kwolf68


Anything less than 6M on a 6 year deal would be excellent.

I'm not going to rag on old contracts. I'm of the mindset that the leaders of 3 Cups should be paid as such. That mindset won't change. I understand the opposite opinion, I just don't want to engage it haha.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 1 @ 5:29 PM ET
6 years at 5 million per would be a good deal.

if he wants 6 million then it should be shorter term.

Maybe I'd feel differently if we were not paying a third pairing D-man 6.8 million per year, a 50 point center 10.5

- kwolf68



Look at Scheifle’s deal - 8 years $6.125 million per, as a frame of reference.

I’d give Schmaltz 6-8 years at $5-$6 million per.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 1 @ 5:29 PM ET
Well if you use the Teows/Kane model that Stevie Y showed was in error or the Seabs model, yea I'm a bit nervous. In theory getting a core guy locked up early makes sense. I guess the execution is the sticky part.
- Mr Ricochet


Aside from the dollars/term, the bigger issue to me is whether one full year as a tweener C/W is worth a long term committment a year before you might know better what his role should be, let alone a year before you need to do it at all.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 1 @ 5:29 PM ET
That was not the only thing they could have done. Or maybe move him sooner on that deal, have some foresight for goodness sakes. It wasn't the MS, it was Bowman spending like a drunken sailor eliminating his flexibility to manage the team, much the same way he gives out NTCs to every player, again limiting his flexibility. I enjoyed the interview with Hextall who said that exact thing, basically said they didn't give out NTCs for that reason. For SOME guys or to add as negotiation leverage I am good with giving them out some time and don't agree with Hextall, but Bowman handing them out in conjunction with max salary is just poor negotiation. I am sure car dealers love to see him coming into the show room.

It's shocking that Bowman has made so few mistakes and still has manage to lead the team from Cup prominence (on the back of 90% players he inherited) to bottom feeder with unmovable deals, NTCs, an adding aging declining players to that group. LOL

- kwolf68


He deserves most of the criticism he gets for the last three years, for some of the anchor contracts, etc. (NO one deserves ALL of the criticism Bowman gets).

But it’s really revisionist history to not give him important (not complete) credit for his retooling a team that was in shambles after losing to Arizona in 2011 into the team that had an excellent three year run (including two Cups) in 2013-14-15.

He picked up important contributors (not Stars, to be sure, but quality players) like Saad, Shaw, Oduya, Handzus, Richard’s, Vermette, Darling, the same Teravainen whose loss is being so lamented....

Did he give up too much for sone of them at the TDL? Perhaps - maybe - yeah, I guess - but - two Cups that I’m not sure Tallon would have won.

He’s also drafted pretty well at low draft positions - and, this year, at his first top-10 position.

It may be time for him (and Q) to move on if this is going to be more of a rebuild than we’d like to see, but there isn’t a completely terrible histor there (with either of them).
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jul 1 @ 5:30 PM ET
Its a risk either way. What if he goes out and puts up 65 points? He certainly is capable. How much does the price go up?
- Elbows15


On this team he likely won't. Although if you slot him with Kane, perhaps. With the way this team is not sure how much more salary you can burn. I guess if they move Hossa that opens up some money, but we need top 4 D-men.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 1 @ 5:32 PM ET
Missed it in all the catching up reading.

Anyone know the significance of signing Boqvist now?

I thought he was 3 years away???
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