School us, Bows. Always an honor, especially when you roll without the "posse" for support.
- Mr Ricochet

Still liking poopty players I see. How is Garbutt doing these days?

[quote=Hawks_49]

Thanks! Okay, after reading the whole post by the Philly tracker, I still believe that Manning is a replacement level bottom pairing d-man. Now add in: that was used incorrectly by his coach in the top 4.

Sheltered in with top 4 minutes (played lowest quality of comp), shot suppression of scoring chances was bad even if overall shot numbers were fine. His break-up numbers / zone entry prevention are middle of the pack on the Flyers but not good compared to the rest of the league which can partially explain the discrepancy between general shot attempt and scoring chances numbers with him on the ice. When he allowed a shot against, it was almost always the highest danger and his team was just better when he wasn't on the ice in this regard. That's worrisome.

"Manning helped his team to win the territorial battle, but struggled to push them to a shot quality edge" is a perfect summary from the article. The fact that the Hawks themselves have been struggling the last 3 seasons with this very issue - good possession number of total shots but bad at suppressing the dangerous attempts against - kind means that Manning will be of little help in with a major defensive weakness of the Hawks currently. Seems like a bad fit to me and also extremely inaccurate to claim he's any type of defensive d-man.

Also his penalty differential is terrible which I dislike cause the Hawks play has always taken a hit after a PK the last few years.

Edit to add: I am going to try to hold off just railing against Manning. He doesn't seem like a good fit for the Hawks and I definitely don't think he's worth the amount they just gave him, but I'll try to see if that changes when playing with the Hawks. I do not like that this may block Forsling, who has a higher ceiling, from getting into the lineup this season and it doesn't address the biggest issue for the defense: someone to play with Keith. I guess that latter part will be Oesterle again.

Heard Hawks are working on an extension for Nick Schmaltz.
- Justin Lowe

Good, lock him up long-term.

I’m happy the Hawks didn’t make any moves that will hurt their ability to re-sign #8 and #12. They are the priority compared to anyone on the UFA market.

Oh I agree and I’m in the camp window is closed. 2/7/19 will be older in 2-3 years if 8/12 blossom and the young d men hit. They will also need a goalie as 50 will be done.

I’m a proponent of blowing it up and getting assets for 2 and maybe 19. Higher cap helps moving 19 easier.
- SteveRain

Bowing it up in this market is a big step and I think with what seems to be a dysfunctional managerial structure makes it even more difficult.

Looks to me like they decided to "firecracker" it up right now instead of blowing it up. Personally I'm ok with that model right now and hope a new managerial team would be in charge of a full rebuild.

At least one with a true hockey mind at the top of the pyramid not a con man.

There is always a spin...Savoy's point is right. To give away talented resources to mask a previous mistake is why the Hawks are on the track they are on.
- kwolf68

Yea like Bowman knew Bickell would have MS? I understand you're pissed off but to be this unfair is something else, so angry.

Still liking poopty players I see. How is Garbutt doing these days?
- Elbows15

I'm a fan, Bows. Love bottom 6 guys who forecheck with speed and anger, engage in 50/50's, knock people down and throw the thing at the net. That will never change for me. ........Still love Svedburg's feet and balance in a 15 foot radius too.

[quote=L_B_R]


Lookee there. This is what context looks like.

I'm a fan, Bows. Love bottom 6 guys who forecheck with speed and anger, engage in 50/50's, knock people down and throw the thing at the net. That will never change for me. ........Still love Svedburg's feet and balance in a 15 foot radius too.
- Mr Ricochet

Its a top 9 bottom 3 league these days. Those bottom 6 players need to fill a role within the structure/system. Some guy just don't fit certain systems while they thrive in others.

Yea like Bowman knew Bickell would have MS? I understand you're pissed off but to be this unfair is something else, so angry.
- BetweenTheDots

You totally missed the point. Bickell should have NOT BEEN TRADED period. He only had 1 year to go on that deal. You figure out a way to prevent having to move TT just to get someone to eat 1 year of a 4 million dollar cap hit. That was an "overpay" for just 1 year. If Bicks still had 3 or 4 left, then maybe you up the ante', but typical Bowman just is a bad negotiator.

When he allowed a shot against, it was almost always the highest danger and his team was just better when he wasn't on the ice in this regard. That's worrisome.

"Manning helped his team to win the territorial battle, but struggled to push them to a shot quality edge" is a perfect summary from the article.


- L_B_R

Not an attack here, LBR. Where do you come down on the following from the writer and as an aside I find it interesting he refers to the fancy numbers as what's "available publicly" meaning most, if not all, clubs have internal fancies.

The public xG models are absolutely more descriptive of what occurred on a player’s watch in a specific game than an “every shot is equal” stat like Corsi. But over the long haul, Corsi has been found to be a superior measure in terms of evaluating players (in comparison to the public models at least), due to a combination of two factors: shot quality itself is subject to randomness, and the current xG models are currently incomplete as detailed tracking data (such as pre-shot movement and passes) do not exist yet for all 31 NHL teams. At the moment, Corsi is the better stat to trust.

You totally missed the point. Bickell should have NOT BEEN TRADED period. He only had 1 year to go on that deal. You figure out a way to prevent having to move TT just to get someone to eat 1 year of a 4 million dollar cap hit. That was an "overpay" for just 1 year. If Bicks still had 3 or 4 left, then maybe you up the ante', but typical Bowman just is a bad negotiator.
- kwolf68

They had to move Bickell to be cap compliant, IIRC.

Signing Schmaltz now would be classic McD premature contractulation.

He now has absolutely nothing to celebrate at the convention so he will rollout an overpay contract to Schmaltz after one season as a miscast center.

Lookee there. This is what context looks like.

- Elbows15

You mean like this, from a paid NHL beat writer?

The public xG models are absolutely more descriptive of what occurred on a player’s watch in a specific game than an “every shot is equal” stat like Corsi. But over the long haul, Corsi has been found to be a superior measure in terms of evaluating players (in comparison to the public models at least), due to a combination of two factors: shot quality itself is subject to randomness, and the current xG models are currently incomplete as detailed tracking data (such as pre-shot movement and passes) do not exist yet for all 31 NHL teams. At the moment, Corsi is the better stat to trust.

They had to move Bickell to be cap compliant, IIRC.
- Elbows15

That was not the only thing they could have done. Or maybe move him sooner on that deal, have some foresight for goodness sakes. It wasn't the MS, it was Bowman spending like a drunken sailor eliminating his flexibility to manage the team, much the same way he gives out NTCs to every player, again limiting his flexibility. I enjoyed the interview with Hextall who said that exact thing, basically said they didn't give out NTCs for that reason. For SOME guys or to add as negotiation leverage I am good with giving them out some time and don't agree with Hextall, but Bowman handing them out in conjunction with max salary is just poor negotiation. I am sure car dealers love to see him coming into the show room.

It's shocking that Bowman has made so few mistakes and still has manage to lead the team from Cup prominence (on the back of 90% players he inherited) to bottom feeder with unmovable deals, NTCs, an adding aging declining players to that group. LOL

Its a top 9 bottom 3 league these days. Those bottom 6 players need to fill a role within the structure/system. Some guy just don't fit certain systems while they thrive in others.
- Elbows15

Like a Daley goes to another club the same yr and wins a cup? Like Kempny goes to another club in the same yr and wins a cup?

Yea, I see.

Been away for a bit. So...what'd I miss?

Signing Schmaltz now would be classic McD premature contractulation.

He now has absolutely nothing to celebrate at the convention so he will rollout an overpay contract to Schmaltz after one season as a miscast center.
- Return of the Roar

Signing Schmaltz now would be classic McD premature contractulation.

He now has absolutely nothing to celebrate at the convention so he will rollout an overpay contract to Schmaltz after one season as a miscast center.
- Return of the Roar

Roar, it's about getting ahead of the cap curve and getting value. If the club determines Schmaltz, or any soon to be RFA 's, is the real deal you go ahead and pull the trigger early saving money later. No?

Roar, it's about getting ahead of the cap curve and getting value. If the club determines Schmaltz, or any soon to be RFA 's, is the real deal you go ahead and pull the trigger early saving money later. No?
- Mr Ricochet

Yeah. It's a calculated risk, but if you think you have a gem, you get that asset locked up for as long as you can at a controllable contract. If they lock Schmaltz down for 6 years at anything less than 6M extension, that's a win right now. He has already shown his style of play and production is going to translate to future success.

Yeah. It's a calculated risk, but if you think you have a gem, you get that asset locked up for as long as you can at a controllable contract. If they lock Schmaltz down for 6 years at anything less than 6M extension, that's a win right now. He has already shown his style of play and production is going to translate to future success.
- Hawks_49

Below 5 million makes the most sense at this stage of the game from the Hawks perspective. Only 1 year and still not sure he can play center

You totally missed the point. Bickell should have NOT BEEN TRADED period. He only had 1 year to go on that deal. You figure out a way to prevent having to move TT just to get someone to eat 1 year of a 4 million dollar cap hit. That was an "overpay" for just 1 year. If Bicks still had 3 or 4 left, then maybe you up the ante', but typical Bowman just is a bad negotiator.
- kwolf68

Or does he negotiate from his heart not his mind? The only, and I mean only, Hawk player I would have agreed to negotiate from the heart on is/was was Hammer. He left a lot on the table to help the club and proceeded to stick his face in front of slappers for the next few yrs. If he stayed I'd have been ok with making some of that up in the next contact.

But other than that nobody gets paid on what they did. The Seabs contract is exhibit A.

Below 5 million makes the most sense at this stage of the game from the Hawks perspective. Only 1 year and still not sure he can play center
- kwolf68

I honestly don't think his position makes any difference at this stage. Over his past 100+ games in the NHL he has produced at a 2nd line level, and that doesn't seem like it will change.

Of course I would prefer if he gets signed for less than 5M on a long term bridge, but I'm not expecting it.

Or does he negotiate from his heart not his mind? The only, and I mean only, Hawk player I would have agreed to negotiate from the heart on is/was was Hammer. He left a lot on the table to help the club and proceeded to stick his face in front of slappers for the next few yrs. If he stayed I'd have been ok with making some of that up in the next contact.

But other than that nobody gets paid on what they did. The Seabs contract is exhibit A.
- Mr Ricochet

Hammer was a warrior. Wasn't Hammer's contract the offer sheet signed from San Jose the Hawks matched? Or was there some other deal in there somewhere?

wow... Is this how a slow smoldering death spiral looks like? Detroit 2.0

Yeah. It's a calculated risk, but if you think you have a gem, you get that asset locked up for as long as you can at a controllable contract. If they lock Schmaltz down for 6 years at anything less than 6M extension, that's a win right now. He has already shown his style of play and production is going to translate to future success.
- Hawks_49

I think I'm better at valuing term better than cap hit, understanding the two go together to find balance, and admit I'm ignorant for the most part on bridge deals.

Wonder what the comparables might be for a Schmaltz type player? 5+ for 6 yrs seems solid for the Hawks tho.