Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: The Backup Plan
Author Message
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Jun 28 @ 11:44 PM ET
Because at 19 years old - with no pro experience - his game is probably not as rounded as you'd ultimately like from a talented defenseman.

I question whether or not he - or any talented 19 year old, other than the McDavids or Matthews of the hockey world - can get that develop under the pressure of an NHL season.

- StLBravesFan


Jokiharju is in the twilight zone and cannot go to Rockford which would be the best for him. It would be extremely tempting to keep him as initially #7 and try to work him in, but he needs to play lots of minutes.

I posted that he got caught pinching or floating forward several times in the one WHL game I saw him in this year. It wasn't meant as a severe criticism since I am guessing that is what an offensive-defensman tends to do in the WHL. His offense is really good, and defensively he is good with the stick.

I think the only choice is he goes back to Portland even though he has little to learn there; D positioning and some of the physical game, that might mean fewer points.

Think he might get the 9-game look-see and back to the WHL.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 28 @ 11:45 PM ET
Trade proposal:
Hawks trade hossa AA forsling and 4th

Carolina trades Faulk Roy/Zykov
Thoughts anyone?

Just bored waiting for something to happen besides Ward signing by the way is good signing for the hawks.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 28 @ 11:46 PM ET
Ward last year 23-14-4?
Forsberg 10-16-4?

So Forsberg is better than Ward, oh that's right we're going with the save percentage of .02% points better, not the experienced goalie who can win games in NHL

My bad .002% points better

- BetweenTheDots

Not just sv%, can also go with GSAA - goals saved above average. It compares what we’d expect a league average goalie to have surrendered or saved under the same workload. Ward last year let in about 10 goals more than average while Forsberg saved two (the Hawks were worse in terms of high danger chances). There are lots of goalies that are on terrible teams and then have bad GAA numbers as a result, so GSAA is evening the comparison field. I wouldn't worry as much if Ward hadn't been damn consistently bad in this regard - he hasn't had a positive GSAA in 7 seasons. You could compare to Miller in Buffalo years ago who almost always was positive.

In the last 5 seasons, Ward has had the league worst GSAA - in comparison, Crawford has had the league's best GSAA (thanks partially to the last 3 seasons). Hey, maybe they'll balance each other out?



Honestly, it's not the end of the world to have Ward as back up and one year is better than anything else, but that amount is high for a guy of such low quality. Would anyone here have wanted Niemi back? No. So I'm surprised that so many are welcome to Ward, who has been objective as bad or worse than Niemi.

Hopefully, Ward is able to tap into the lightning in a bottle he did his rookie playoff run and pull a Emery to be a competent backup.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 28 @ 11:48 PM ET
6’1 205lb 18 yr old Right shot LW Wahlstrom with dangles like this and a 40goal scorers release.....kid is going to be a beast.

https://www.instagram.com...sheet&igshid=5zslfnb0nh8u

Boquist has high end skill like this, but 30lbs lighter and 2” shorter. as a Dman, like Erik Karlsson, he will always have defensive zone limitations. Hope both D selected round 1 are all stars but no way I would’ve passed on Wahlstrom
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 28 @ 11:48 PM ET
Trade proposal:
Hawks trade hossa AA forsling and 4th

Carolina trades Faulk Roy/Zykov
Thoughts anyone?

Just bored waiting for something to happen besides Ward signing by the way is good signing for the hawks.

- Scott1977

Doubt the Canes would move Roy - he's one of two center prospects that they have that might impact their roster in the coming two years.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 28 @ 11:52 PM ET
Jokiharju is in the twilight zone and cannot go to Rockford which would be the best for him. It would be extremely tempting to keep him as initially #7 and try to work him in, but he needs to play lots of minutes.

I posted that he got caught pinching or floating forward several times in the one WHL game I saw him in this year. It wasn't meant as a severe criticism since I am guessing that is what an offensive-defensman tends to do in the WHL. His offense is really good, and defensively he is good with the stick.

I think the only choice is he goes back to Portland even though he has little to learn there; D positioning and some of the physical game, that might mean fewer points.

Think he might get the 9-game look-see and back to the WHL.

- totem

No one knows yet if Jokiharju can't be in the AHL next year. The Hawks are trying to argue that he was technically on loan from his Finnish team to the Winterhawks, so he shouldn't be subjected to the transfer agreement. Alexander Nylander (Buffalo) was allowed to play in the AHL when he was 18 despite playing in the OHL because he had a pro contract in Sweden and had been on loan.
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Jun 28 @ 11:57 PM ET
Do you hear that sound? It’s the sound of Stan flushing $2.5 down the toilet.

Tick-tock

- Ogilthorpe2


I am OK with Ward if it's 2.5 for 1 year. It is a stopgap and works if Crawford is mostly healthy.

You are getting half a year of Ward as a backup and then an option to keep him or get a mid-round pick at the deadline. Half a year of Ward and a 2019 4th for cash isn't really a bad deal in that case.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jun 28 @ 11:59 PM ET
Not just sv%, can also go with GSAA - goals saved above average. It compares what we’d expect a league average goalie to have surrendered or saved under the same workload. Ward last year let in about 10 goals more than average while Forsberg saved two (the Hawks were worse in terms of high danger chances). There are lots of goalies that are on terrible teams and then have bad GAA numbers as a result, so GSAA is evening the comparison field. I wouldn't worry as much if Ward hadn't been damn consistently bad in this regard - he hasn't had a positive GSAA in 7 seasons. You could compare to Miller in Buffalo years ago who almost always was positive.

In the last 5 seasons, Ward has had the league worst GSAA - in comparison, Crawford has had the league's best GSAA (thanks partially to the last 3 seasons). Hey, maybe they'll balance each other out?



Honestly, it's not the end of the world to have Ward as back up and one year is better than anything else, but that amount is high for a guy of such low quality. Would anyone here have wanted Niemi back? No. So I'm surprised that so many are welcome to Ward, who has been objective as bad or worse than Niemi.

Hopefully, Ward is able to tap into the lightning in a bottle he did his rookie playoff run and pull a Emery to be a competent backup.

- L_B_R


At the salary for one season, Ward is just a veteran insurance policy in case CC can't go. If Cro plays, Ward can start 30 games and if he wins half of them everybody will be happy.

He's getting about the same money as Elliott, Neuvirth and Anders Nillsson. And about a million less than James Reimer.
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Jun 29 @ 12:02 AM ET
No one knows yet if Jokiharju can't be in the AHL next year. The Hawks are trying to argue that he was technically on loan from his Finnish team to the Winterhawks, so he shouldn't be subjected to the transfer agreement. Alexander Nylander (Buffalo) was allowed to play in the AHL when he was 18 despite playing in the OHL because he had a pro contract in Sweden and had been on loan.
- L_B_R


Yes you are right, I forgot about that, but I was assuming that argument was likely to fail. Hoping they can win that one as I think Jokiharju would be ready if he had most of a season playing at Rockford.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 29 @ 12:12 AM ET
At the salary for one season, Ward is just a veteran insurance policy in case CC can't go. If Cro plays, Ward can start 30 games and if he wins half of them everybody will be happy.

He's getting about the same money as Elliott, Neuvirth and Anders Nillsson. And about a million less than James Reimer.

- RickJ

If the team in front of him plays as poorly in term so defense as the Hawks did last year, the probability is low that he would win half his games based on his historical and declining play.

It's kind of weird to me which over inflated contracts people here like and dislike.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 29 @ 12:18 AM ET
If the team in front of him plays as poorly in term so defense as the Hawks did last year, the probability is low that he would win half his games based on his historical and declining play.

It's kind of weird to me which over inflated contracts people here like and dislike.

- L_B_R


LOL we can all agree that StanBo loves himself some inflated contracts!
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 29 @ 12:22 AM ET
Doubt the Canes would move Roy - he's one of two center prospects that they have that might impact their roster in the coming two years.
- L_B_R

I know but throwing things out there until something happens plus I like Roy lots of potential there. Zikov wouldn't be bad 6 foot 220 big foward like a ferland or hyman type big strong.
MNHawk
Location: Richfield, MN
Joined: 07.18.2014

Jun 29 @ 12:29 AM ET
This just feels like a non-exciting summer with a long-term move waiting to happen.

My prediction...get ready for a couple "meh" moves and get fired up for prospect camp.
* The Hawks will get as close to the cap to start the season and then trade Hossa's contract. They will not replace Hossa's salary to use the slot for the trade deadline.
* They will use kids (Hayden, Sikua, etc.) to replace open slots.
* CC will instantly go on LTIR while they ride Ward and Forsberg to a hovering around .500 record.
* Come trade deadline they will make a move to add a couple veterans using the accrued salary.
* CC will be magically healthy the rest of the season to round himself into SC playoff shape.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 29 @ 12:37 AM ET
This just feels like a non-exciting summer with a long-term move waiting to happen.

My prediction...get ready for a couple "meh" moves and get fired up for prospect camp.
* The Hawks will get as close to the cap to start the season and then trade Hossa's contract. They will not replace Hossa's salary to use the slot for the trade deadline.
* They will use kids (Hayden, Sikua, etc.) to replace open slots.
* CC will instantly go on LTIR while they ride Ward and Forsberg to a hovering around .500 record.
* Come trade deadline they will make a move to add a couple veterans using the accrued salary.
* CC will be magically healthy the rest of the season to round himself into SC playoff shape.

- MNHawk

Would be perfectly happy with this outcome.

The LAST thing I would want is for StanBo to lose his mind in what could be his last chance as GM of the team and decide to overspend on a mediocre FA class and strap the team even more moving forward.

If the kids replace the open slots (Hayden, Sikura, etc.) and the team makes it to the playoffs, that means those kids made important contributions to the team and are worth building around moving forward, or it means that Kane, Toews, Saad, Keith, etc. found their games which is the only way this team has any hopes of contending.

It also means Ward/Forsberg (who everyone already has no faith in seemingly around here) did a fine enough job holding up the fort to get us into the post season.

If this team's overhaul comes via free agency, I'll be pretty upset. If it's done via the trade route (preferably, and the route I think StanBo takes considering how out-of-left-field his trades have been), I think the team will be in better shape than people think.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 29 @ 12:38 AM ET
Johnston from Sportsnet who is reporting Ward to the Hawks for a year at $2.5 is also reporting Bernier to the Wings and Hutton to the Sabres.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 29 @ 12:49 AM ET
Kempny resigns with Caps on multi-year deal. Terms not disclosed yet. Before resigning, he was apparently courted by many other teams.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 29 @ 12:56 AM ET
Would be perfectly happy with this outcome.

The LAST thing I would want is for StanBo to lose his mind in what could be his last chance as GM of the team and decide to overspend on a mediocre FA class and strap the team even more moving forward.

If the kids replace the open slots (Hayden, Sikura, etc.) and the team makes it to the playoffs, that means those kids made important contributions to the team and are worth building around moving forward, or it means that Kane, Toews, Saad, Keith, etc. found their games which is the only way this team has any hopes of contending.

It also means Ward/Forsberg (who everyone already has no faith in seemingly around here) did a fine enough job holding up the fort to get us into the post season.

If this team's overhaul comes via free agency, I'll be pretty upset. If it's done via the trade route (preferably, and the route I think StanBo takes considering how out-of-left-field his trades have been), I think the team will be in better shape than people think.

- TommyHawk


It has to come via free agency because we have no assets to trade that people want, assets that control their own destiny via NMCs, bad assets that will require bad assets in exchange to get rid of, and if we have one not in those buckets, the loss of them would be net loss for us.

If they do it through FA with short term deals, the kids can ripen in Rockford as they should, and we are out from under those deals at the end of the year.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 29 @ 12:56 AM ET
Johnston from Sportsnet who is reporting Ward to the Hawks for a year at $2.5 is also reporting Bernier to the Wings and Hutton to the Sabres.
- AEL_Fox


Both will be north of $3MM with longer terms.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 29 @ 1:12 AM ET
It has to come via free agency because we have no assets to trade that people want, assets that control their own destiny via NMCs, bad assets that will require bad assets in exchange to get rid of, and if we have one not in those buckets, the loss of them would be net loss for us.

If they do it through FA with short term deals, the kids can ripen in Rockford as they should, and we are out from under those deals at the end of the year.

- Return of the Roar

No assets that people want? Not sure I agree with that statement.

Without even mentioning future draft picks, we've now got a glut of defensemen in our farm system that could be moved with recent additions like Boqvist and Beaudin. We've got players like Hinstroza, Fortin, etc. who are young wingers that might be squeezed out if players like Sikura, Hayden, Martinsen, cheap veterans brought in, etc. are locked into every-day roles.

We might feel like some of the 'Hawks assets aren't held to a higher regard around the league, but we truly don't know. Andrew Ladd trade aside, I can't recall a single Bowman deal that we saw coming.

If Stan does indeed go down the trade route this offseason, I guarantee it will be for a player we didn't have as a trade target or player(s) we didn't think were readily available.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jun 29 @ 1:18 AM ET
If the team in front of him plays as poorly in term so defense as the Hawks did last year, the probability is low that he would win half his games based on his historical and declining play.

It's kind of weird to me which over inflated contracts people here like and dislike.

- L_B_R


As bad as the stats say he was, I'm amazed he won that many games. 9 games over 500. Are you sure the stats are correct? Or maybe you need to find or create some stats that correlate to winning and loosing. As i said we'll see and one year deal, i seea tradein his future for hopefully at least a 3rd round pick. This move was a chance to get more draft picks at deadline to keep building, big picture peoples
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 29 @ 2:00 AM ET
6’1 205lb 18 yr old Right shot LW Wahlstrom with dangles like this and a 40goal scorers release.....kid is going to be a beast.

https://www.instagram.com...sheet&igshid=5zslfnb0nh8u

Boquist has high end skill like this, but 30lbs lighter and 2” shorter. as a Dman, like Erik Karlsson, he will always have defensive zone limitations. Hope both D selected round 1 are all stars but no way I would’ve passed on Wahlstrom

- EnzoD


Now you had to go and post that, Zo!! Size, skating, a release like Laine and IMO a floor of 30 goals once he's a pro for a couple yrs. Just too many tools for it not to happen

He was my guy for a month out, I know you posted well before the draft he was your guy too, of the draft but the Hawks didn't draft him. I'm behind the Boqvist kid now and as much as I loved Wahlstrom the Swede has a lot of upside AND plays a more important position. Boqvist, Dobson, either would have been ok if they weren't going to take the 6ft 1in 200lb+ 18 yr old with a release like Laine.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 29 @ 2:11 AM ET
Like who?

$2.5 million is nothing in today's market place. Unless you're bringing in an AHL-fodder or giving a kid from like the ECHL a back-up role, no goalie will come much cheaper than that.

Look at this list and filter it by the Average (ascending) column: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contracts/goaltender/

The goalies making less than $2.5M a year are either goalies who are about to break the bank (like Hellebuyck, Gibson, Kinkaid, etc.), veteran goalies who ride the shuttle between the NHL and AHL (like Zatkoff, Lindback, Subban, etc.) or old flame outs who will not likely be in the league next year like Niemi, Budaj, etc.

Looking at the list of other goalies making ~$2.5M, Ward's deal is absolutely reasonable, especially considering the fact that he actually has years of experience of carrying a heavy workload. It's also a one-year commitment, not a multi-year like Bernier and Hutton will get.

It's fine. Let's all settle down.

- TommyHawk


The list does add perspective. When the Hawks were in cap hell 2.5 mil to them was like 10 mil to most other teams but not so much today. That's cuz they finally have cap flexibility and if they went ahead and signed any of the FA goalies for 2-3-4 yrs, none of which is a long term answer, they would cut into that cap flexibility they need in 1-2-3 yrs.

I still say take any of those FA goalies that would sign for ONE yr, that's the key. Hawks need a yr to better figure out the goalie situation, namely Crow's health and can Forsberg be an NHL goalie. Ward buys them that yr, ONE yr. Term was the key and to make it more appealing Ward can reasonably carry the mail.

Does anyone think the Hawks can get, or go deep, into the playoffs without Crow? I don't and if he can't play this yr none of the FA goalies are a long term answer so why sign any of them for more than 1 yr?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 29 @ 2:48 AM ET
As bad as the stats say he was, I'm amazed he won that many games. 9 games over 500. Are you sure the stats are correct?
- BetweenTheDots


Ward has been in the NHL for 13 seasons and has been below .500 in two of them!! 11 of 13 seasons has been above .500. Has been above .500 in his last 3 seasons. Yet his lifetime GA is 2.70 and SPG is .909., not pretty.

Reminds me of a pitcher back in the day, Jack Morris. Played on some solid to great Tiger clubs. Morris would win 20-25 games a yr yet his era was in the 4's and was a workhorse. Morris would give up solo shots but not 3 run shots. He was a different pitcher in the 6th, 7th and 8th, had a different mindset and approach than early in the game. Simply said he was a winner without the stats to back it up, except for wins, like Ward.

I always thought goalies, and pitchers too, greatest asset is between their ears. There is a difference between giving up goals in the 1st period than the 3rd a difference between giving up goals tied or up or down 1 and up 3 or down 3. Same with a pitcher giving up a meaningless solo shot up 4 instead of trying to rack up strikeouts (stats) risking 2 walks and then a 3 run shot.

I think Ward fits this mold. He had the stones and most importantly the brain to win a cup as a rookie, with an .882 SPG! Kid didn't save many pucks that yr but did when it counted. Kid as a rookie won a cup in a series that went to a 7th game. First to win a cup as a rookie since Roy. First to win rookie to win the Con Smythe since Hextall. Yes I looked that up, it's certainly not from memory.

He's 34 and of course his physical skills have waned but still has the most important asset a goalie can have, a cup winning brain. Can do a helluva lot worse than a Cam Ward for 1yr at 2.5 mil.

Could very well be Ward was brought in to back up Forsberg not Crow.
stonefire
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Prague
Joined: 10.22.2006

Jun 29 @ 5:51 AM ET

* The Hawks will get as close to the cap to start the season and then trade Hossa's contract. They will not replace Hossa's salary to use the slot for the trade deadline.

- MNHawk


They could just put him on LTIR then, no need to trade at that point.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 29 @ 6:47 AM ET
That’s a lot of money on goaltending.
- DarthKane


Only if CC is still on the team................
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26  Next