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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Bold Predictions on Draft Week
Author Message
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 5:40 PM ET
stonefire - I hear you. If ever there was a year that the Hawks need their Scouting team to better other teams’ Scouting teams this is the one. It is never this crazy at the top end - a 3 on some Lists is a 9 on others. Or out of the top 10 altogether. Zadina is certainly part of the crazy.
- Z3Hawk


Add the lack of sure fire centers in this draft really adds to its volatility. ....... Can't remember exactly but its said that this will be the first draft in 20-25 yrs a center wasn't taken with the 1st or 2nd pick.
Lido_Shuffle
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.10.2012

Jun 21 @ 5:43 PM ET
Hey Wiz, what’s the deal with teams being shy about taking goalies in the first round?

Samsonov was recently taken in the 1st by the Caps a couple years ago, and I know the Stars took that goalie last year (which is interesting because they gambled on a goalie in the first years ago who turned out to be a flop in Jack Campbell who I remember people talking about as a can’t-miss.)

Do goalies have to be truly elite prospects in order to warrant 1st round consideration? Or is it that they are so raw/uncertain that teams know that they can just wait on them in the later rounds or just wait to sign them away from Europe.

It’s just fascinating to me that year in and year out, the most important position in hockey is always considered an afterthought by all teams, hoping to just somehow get lucky down the road when they see them develop and then snag them rather than drafting/developing them early on like the Lightning did with Vasilevskiy.

- TommyHawk


Great point. I was hoping the Hawks would have taken him in the draft, he was still there at 18 but we took TT time instead.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 21 @ 5:43 PM ET
Very very scoopy. I've read most anything out there and this is the first I heard the Finn had knee surgery. Has to be down low info, or irrelevant, and if so why would MTL's head scout make that public a day before the draft?

In my world that Finn has to be in the conversation after Dahlin and Svech. Maybe only Hughes for that 3 spot........... If they pass on Kotkaniemi OTT is next. Will the 8th and 27th be enough?

- Mr Ricochet

If JK makes it past Montreal, I think he’ll make it to 8.

I only trade up for Zadina.

I’ll gladly take Wahlstrom, Hughes, or anyone else who slides to 8.
Stan_Bowman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.27.2017

Jun 21 @ 5:44 PM ET
Add the lack of sure fire centers in this draft really adds to its volatility. ....... Can't remember exactly but its said that this will be the first draft in 20-25 yrs a center wasn't taken with the 1st or 2nd pick.
- Mr Ricochet


Not true

2012 - Nail Yakupov (RW) was 1st, Ryan Murrary (D) was 2nd

2007 - Kane's draft year where he went #1 overall James Van Riemsdyk went 2nd
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 21 @ 5:45 PM ET
Could also be that most teams, if not all, have their own filters based upon their needs - on the ice, or strategic concerns.
- Return of the Roar


For sure. Probably this year the team Lists are as different as they have ever been as there are no clear-cut players 3 to 10 that a team simply cannot pass on.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jun 21 @ 5:45 PM ET
Very very scoopy. I've read most anything out there and this is the first I heard the Finn had knee surgery. Has to be down low info, or irrelevant, and if so why would MTL's head scout make that public a day before the draft?

In my world that Finn has to be in the conversation after Dahlin and Svech. Maybe only Hughes for that 3 spot........... If they pass on Kotkaniemi OTT is next. Will the 8th and 27th be enough?

- Mr Ricochet

I don't know if you can access TSN Radio from the U.S. but 690 Montreal is great to listen to at the end of the day. They analyze everything hockey to death and get great guests. They tear a strip off of Bergevin every day and no coach is ever safe either.
stonefire
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Prague
Joined: 10.22.2006

Jun 21 @ 5:46 PM ET
Add the lack of sure fire centers in this draft really adds to its volatility. ....... Can't remember exactly but its said that this will be the first draft in 20-25 yrs a center wasn't taken with the 1st or 2nd pick.
- Mr Ricochet


I wonder when the goalies start coming of the board too. There is not a single one of them being even in the discussion for the top of the 2nd, let alone 1st round. New normal, I suppose.
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 21 @ 5:47 PM ET
Not true

2012 - Nail Yakupov (RW) was 1st, Ryan Murrary (D) was 2nd

2007 - Kane's draft year where he went #1 overall James Van Riemsdyk went 2nd

- Stan_Bowman


Well we know how 2012 went.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 21 @ 5:48 PM ET
NHL salary cap ceiling will be $79.5 million in 2018-19; lower limit is $58.8 million.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 21 @ 5:53 PM ET
Not true

2012 - Nail Yakupov (RW) was 1st, Ryan Murrary (D) was 2nd

2007 - Kane's draft year where he went #1 overall James Van Riemsdyk went 2nd

- Stan_Bowman
Couple more in the last 20 years
2002 - Nash (LW) and Lehtonen (G)
2000 - DiPietro (G) and Heatley (LW)

There were a 3 drafts all in a row in the mid 90s that took two d-men top 2. Not Prongers' draft, but the 3 after. They were running a 90 d-man special on the NHL Network like 2-3 weeks ago that talked about it.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 21 @ 5:56 PM ET
NHL salary cap ceiling will be $79.5 million in 2018-19; lower limit is $58.8 million.
- walleyeb1


So Hawks have $9,225,705 in real space
Hossa’s deal is $5,275,000

About $14.5MM total.

Again, I stand by the belief that ALL needs can be met via available UFAs. Takes trusting Stan to make good value for value trades out of the equation. Provided the cluster(blank) of front office decision making doesn’t use non-hockey criteria for signings.

Then the draft can truly be about selecting best available talent, and not an urgency to sign someone most NHL ready.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jun 21 @ 5:59 PM ET
Bowman is just saying what every GM says - they won't talk about free agents yet, they like their guys, etc etc. He's not going to come out and say he definitively wants to sign someone because that could push another GM to try to grab them first.
- L_B_R

It very rare when any public figure can say much of anything.

Consider Elon Musk. Could he say, ‘We’re bleeding money like a stuck pig, I can’t figure out how to actually build cars in volume, electric cars will always be niche vehicles because to get big range you need giant batteries, ...’?

No, he says things that give his investors warm fuzzies and keep the stock price up.

Look at the Cubs, Theo never really says anything, Joe is all rainbows and ponies however bad they play. And they’ve only won once.

Stan_Bowman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.27.2017

Jun 21 @ 5:59 PM ET
Couple more in the last 20 years
2002 - Nash (LW) and Lehtonen (G)
2000 - DiPietro (G) and Heatley (LW)

There were a 3 drafts all in a row in the mid 90s that took two d-men top 2. Not Prongers' draft, but the 3 after. They were running a 90 d-man special on the NHL Network like 2-3 weeks ago that talked about it.

- L_B_R


Yea I gave up looking after those most recent two
Stan_Bowman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.27.2017

Jun 21 @ 6:01 PM ET
Well we know how 2012 went.
- Z3Hawk

The first four overall picks were relative disappointments. Actually there was very little offensive talent that came out of the first round that year. Dmen were solid though
wonthecup10
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 02.05.2008

Jun 21 @ 6:01 PM ET
It very rare when any public figure can say much of anything.

Consider Elon Musk. Could he say, ‘We’re bleeding money like a stuck pig, I can’t figure out how to actually build cars in volume, electric cars will always be niche vehicles because to get big range you need giant batteries, ...’?

No, he says things that give his investors warm fuzzies and keep the stock price up.

Look at the Cubs, Theo never really says anything, Joe is all rainbows and ponies however bad they play. And they’ve only won once.

- scottak


In the 3 years Uncle Joe has been there......... meanwhile on 35th and shields ???????
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 21 @ 6:11 PM ET
Karlsson has never had an ACL injury, he had an achilles injury
- Stan_Bowman


Of course - can even picture the injury happening. Brain Freeze - too excited.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:14 PM ET
Hey Wiz, what’s the deal with teams being shy about taking goalies in the first round?

Samsonov was recently taken in the 1st by the Caps a couple years ago, and I know the Stars took that goalie last year (which is interesting because they gambled on a goalie in the first years ago who turned out to be a flop in Jack Campbell who I remember people talking about as a can’t-miss.)

Do goalies have to be truly elite prospects in order to warrant 1st round consideration? Or is it that they are so raw/uncertain that teams know that they can just wait on them in the later rounds or just wait to sign them away from Europe.

It’s just fascinating to me that year in and year out, the most important position in hockey is always considered an afterthought by all teams, hoping to just somehow get lucky down the road when they see them develop and then snag them rather than drafting/developing them early on like the Lightning did with Vasilevskiy.

- TommyHawk


I know you didn't ask me but as I understand it it is just so so damn hard to project goalies many teams instead grab 5-6-8-9 goalies as FA/mid to late rds over a 3-4 span and hopes of hitting on one instead of using a 1st rounder.

With that in mind I'd like to see the Hawks take some stabs late. If you wanna take a few minutes the last USHL playoffs had an incredible 5 gm series between Waterloo (white/red) vs and Fargo (blue) in the semis that was fantastic, Fargo won in 4 and went on to win the cup.

Anyway Fargo goalie Strauss Mann is a late 98 and still draft eligible, was fantastic (shades of Mike Quick?) vs goalers Matej Tomek (brought over from Slovakia where he played in the both the U-18 and U-20 WJC for his nation) and 99 Jared Moe (who I really like as a late pick) who is straight out of HS and earned more starts than Tomek. Both got starts in the semis, Tomek the righty and Moe the lefty.

Take a look at these kids and what USHL action (played in Geneva at Fox Valley Ice Arena) looks like.

Game 3 (Moe starts for WTL): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tavwpDpkMZo

Game 4 (Tomek starts for WTL): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiWHhyg50Sc&t=23s
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 21 @ 6:22 PM ET
NHL salary cap ceiling will be $79.5 million in 2018-19; lower limit is $58.8 million.
- walleyeb1

Really they couldn't get an extra $500k this is why hockey is number 4 behind football baseball and basketball just cannot generate enough revenue every year 2 -4 million cap raise woop de do.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 21 @ 6:24 PM ET
So Hawks have $9,225,705 in real space
Hossa’s deal is $5,275,000

About $14.5MM total.

Again, I stand by the belief that ALL needs can be met via available UFAs. Takes trusting Stan to make good value for value trades out of the equation. Provided the cluster(blank) of front office decision making doesn’t use non-hockey criteria for signings.

Then the draft can truly be about selecting best available talent, and not an urgency to sign someone most NHL ready.

- Return of the Roar

Image how much more if bowman didn't sign gus and rutta so quickly and hopefully trades AA and hossa's contract that's another 9 mill plus.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:35 PM ET
If JK makes it past Montreal, I think he’ll make it to 8.

I only trade up for Zadina.

I’ll gladly take Wahlstrom, Hughes, or anyone else who slides to 8.

- TommyHawk


Maybe, maybe. OTT at 4 has to be looking to replace Karlsson at D, that kid GM in AZ is a sharp one so who knows with Stepan/Strome/Galchenyu/Dvorak as possible centers, DET is probably taking a Dman, VAN probably wants a Dman too but if Zadina or Wahlstrom are on the board to good chance they don't take the Finn and then the Hawks at 8!!

Kotkaniemi can and has played wing well though. Geez that kid could answer so many needs for the Hawks if he hits his ceiling.


Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:37 PM ET
Not true

2012 - Nail Yakupov (RW) was 1st, Ryan Murrary (D) was 2nd

2007 - Kane's draft year where he went #1 overall James Van Riemsdyk went 2nd

- Stan_Bowman


But they ain't centers. When was the last time a center wasn't taken 1 or 2?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:38 PM ET
I wonder when the goalies start coming of the board too. There is not a single one of them being even in the discussion for the top of the 2nd, let alone 1st round. New normal, I suppose.
- stonefire


Reading quite possible the first one is taken in rd 3. ... Said to be a very weak draft for goalies especially US born ones, not tat that matters though.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:40 PM ET
So Hawks have $9,225,705 in real space
Hossa’s deal is $5,275,000

About $14.5MM total.

Again, I stand by the belief that ALL needs can be met via available UFAs. Takes trusting Stan to make good value for value trades out of the equation. Provided the cluster(blank) of front office decision making doesn’t use non-hockey criteria for signings.

Then the draft can truly be about selecting best available talent, and not an urgency to sign someone most NHL ready.

- Return of the Roar


Agreed, or thru trades.

The bolded is so so important.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 21 @ 6:51 PM ET
Not true

2012 - Nail Yakupov (RW) was 1st, Ryan Murrary (D) was 2nd

2007 - Kane's draft year where he went #1 overall James Van Riemsdyk went 2nd

- Stan_Bowman


Yep, guess I mis-read or don't remember the point that was being made.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 21 @ 6:52 PM ET
Image how much more if bowman didn't sign gus and rutta so quickly and hopefully trades AA and hossa's contract that's another 9 mill plus.
- Scott1977


Actually it can be easier to trade signed guys versus trading RFA's. Especially when they are 1 or 2yr deals - as those are
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