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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: How Do These Hawks Look Two Years From Now?
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Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 18 @ 4:33 PM ET
I agree with your points.

But do want to point out, most draft pick value tables I've seen would have that deal being basically even or in Blackhawks favor. So it wouldn't be Bowman overpaying necessarily, just making a deal based on his window not the teams.

- Antilles


This kind of deal IMO would be better for a club like the Blues who are maybe 1 player short of a serious cup run than are the Hawks. Hawks need at least 2-3 pieces to be solid so I don't want to move 2 picks in a deep draft to move up for a Zadina type when similar players are available 5 picks later.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 18 @ 4:37 PM ET
You will NOT get value for Toews. Toews will bring back nothing substantial, unless you eat salary, take garbage contract back or send sweeteners. Players who are paid well above their production levels simply lack the value to obtain quality. You SURE won't be getting a Top 6 center in return.

Ditto for Seabrook, another unmovable deal.

Players who can get you value are those who are currently "at value", I'd say that's Kane, Crawford (he would be ABOVE value if not for questions about his health), Anisimov (though he won't fetch much) and possibly Saad (if for no other reason due to youth and potential).

ABOVE value players would be kids on their first deal. No real point in trading any of those. I'd argue Keith is an "above value" guy, his deal is long, but the cap hit for what he brings is nothing.

- kwolf68



I never said they would get value for him, or would trade him.....just glad, if it's true according to other reports besides Eklund, that Toews is being listened on.

I don't disagree his value is down vs what he makes, but he needs a wake up call and if not....then the Hawks may have to eat money and deal him if he sucks.....again.....this year.

Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 18 @ 4:37 PM ET
A class guy with a class retort to handing him the Wait and see all season on his contract negotiations.

Good luck with the islanders!

- wiz1901


Would be a nice fit! Lou pulling the levers acquiring players with a very good coach in Trotz even before the cup win running the bench. Ain't like NYI has a dearth of talent, they need to fill some holes though, biggest being a goalie, as well as resign Tavares.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 18 @ 4:51 PM ET
No one in Rockford will, or should, make the NHL roster as a full time difference making player this upcoming season.

And because they played “for pride” at the tail end of last season, they played themselves out of a chance for anyone in the draft who will be NHL ready. All of the plums will be picked before #8.

So where will any of the guys mentioned be? In Rockford hopefully learning the game until they are deemed keepers or not.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 18 @ 5:08 PM ET
27th pick in the 2018 Draft.

Because of the entire league thinking so very different in relation to a defenseman's size and the momentum shift towards the push the pace defenders, the fact that you may have 15 of 31 picks mocked out to be defenders, it is a terrific leap of faith that the scouting staffs are making in the mid and late parts of round one when they decide on that undersized highly skilled "midget" who better at very least have more than one trick in the repertoire for impending the other teams attack when their check is the man with possession.

I have 13 defenseman in my mock draft in the first, but it could easily be 17

Imagine that if more defenders get picked than forwards...that means some pretty good forwards in the class haven't gone of the board.

I want to go back refer to something Elbows15 said, that a "late first is like a second..."

In most drafts, as funny as it sounds the first round DOES include what amounts to second round talent b/c those drafts lack depth.

Most drafts have
a Generational guy (maybe more)
a high skilled and close to immediate impact group
a very very good group
a group with lots of upside to jump up a group or two,
fist round group
and then try anywhere from 16 through the 20's the entire next tier is one where the players are somewhat equal (unless your scouts can justify one guy's underlying upsides)- as he said that group starts in the first and can liger through the second and even into the third round some years.
Each year is different.

But I think you cannot in this 2018 say that the draft tails out of first round talent before the round ends.
What WILL happen, is some teams will at some later time be disappointed in the success of many of the guys taken in the end of the round especially with the smaller push offense man, whose junior level tricks and triumphs get stifled by NHL players.

By NO means is that 27th pick a place in this draft with limited value, or where you have to mine for the hidden potential in a kid; there are plenty that are gonna be there that dropped slightly or had prospects or tow on each team's draft list ahead of them that they took....these are players that you see teams trying to trade INTO slots to grab.
That #27 had value enough to aid getting NHL help, or to add multiple picks in the second to get ahead in the goaltender run.

You don't hear buzz about Corey Pronman sleeper Dominik Bokk, the German kid with such a good head and skill but the jury was out after he seemed disinterested and sleepy when the puck wasn't on his stick (and he played on the lower level, not a factor in Vaxjo championship run.

I honest don't know where Ryan mercy gets picked from slot #16 where I have him into where the rangers, wings and islanders start having multiple picks in the mid 40's....but I like him over Beaudin...becuase the guys is so freaking dynamic!

And there is nothing wrong with taking one of the defenders who is going to college or still in development.

Or after taking a defender at #8, grabbing a centre like my favorite Ty Dellandrea.

But you aren't getting a really bad player this year at #27...in the same sense there was a wait on Danault and never the thought you were drafting future first line centre (although I have seen people here calling him just that, but it is relative to Montreal's scarcity at the pivot.

So everyone enjoy the strength of the two assets the Hawks have on the first night of the draft...
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 18 @ 5:14 PM ET
For Hartman, I think his production last year was really buoyed by those first two games where the Hawks faced the Pens and Jackets on the second half of back to back and Hartman was really the benefit of Kane/Schmaltz making some unreal plays. Those 2 games got Hartman 6 points, and then he managed 19 in the 55 games after that.

He scored scored less goals but managed more assists. I guess I don't see why people are too upset about moving a guy who seems like his ceiling is 3rd line.

- breadbag
First, you shouldn't count that CBJ game as Hartman only had one point anyway + Schmaltz was injured pretty quickly into it. I think excluding any games form a player's record is cherry picking, as many have games where they get more points than normal (or less), but we'll roll with it for discussions sake.

Second, 3 of the 6 points were primary, so dismissing them all seems odd. Most players have somewhat inflated numbers thanks to secondary assists, but Hartman actually isn't one of them - his % of primary points at 5v5 is great. If benefitting from Kane disqualified points, then Debrincat wouldn't have as many either.

Third, even if you remove 3 points (since we agree removing primary point is silly, yes?), that puts Hartman at 22 points with the Hawks or .39 PPG, which is still right in line with his .40 PPG from the previous year. So, I still believe it's inaccurate to say Hartman slumped. Despite switching teams, Hartman ended up with only 4 less goals at 5v5 than last season and only one less primary point. He was pretty consistent considering his (and everyone on the Hawks). If his sh% rebounds even a little and he maintains his primary assist rate, that would likely put Hartman in the 35-40 point range over a full season.

Also, I think Hartman did a lot of little things really well but like many on the team last year it didn't click. I think he got traded even though the bigger issue was on a team level. That's jmo.



The reason some are upset is because we either (1) don't think Edjsell is very good (I'm trying to reserve judgement but skating is so importnat now) and (2) think Hartman as a proven 3rd liner is more useful to the current team / near future than the #27 pick. I would like the Hawks to be competitive sooner rather than later and thought Hartman helped with that, if only in terms of depth. Depth players are needed. Hartman also provided an element to the team that the Hawks didn't have and was more defensively responsible than most of the guys on the team currently. I liked him for the Hawks and the return is currently meh to me but that could change. Being annoyed at the trade is valid, though.[/img]
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 18 @ 5:15 PM ET
I never said they would get value for him, or would trade him.....just glad, if it's true according to other reports besides Eklund, that Toews is being listened on.

I don't disagree his value is down vs what he makes, but he needs a wake up call and if not....then the Hawks may have to eat money and deal him if he sucks.....again.....this year.

- SteveRain

Who are the other reports that saying such a thing? Are they also Ek type or more legit sources for NHL rumors / insider information?
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 18 @ 5:21 PM ET
Anyone catch Westworld last night?

Unreal!

- Hank3Henshaw



yYou get the email from Delos management?
SoftServe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 01.19.2016

Jun 18 @ 5:22 PM ET
https://theathletic.com/3...play-with-this-offseason/
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 18 @ 5:29 PM ET
Great. Except he was getting knocked on his ass pretty easily last season. His skating ISNT
- Elbows15


He doesn't have to be a blazer, and he could get able to get around to the front when boxed out if he wasn't a strong enough skater..
dahawks8819
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 10.29.2014

Jun 18 @ 5:30 PM ET
Enjoy last place

Saad is a must go

No proven Goalie is a set up for disaster like last year Grubby is this years Darling

- Goalie-33


Hey moron,

You forgot to mention trading Kane - because you state he is the worst player ever, and that no one here has a clue.....

You are slipping - did you run out of your meds and mommy forgot to pick up more??

Abadseed
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Arlington hts, IL
Joined: 01.20.2014

Jun 18 @ 5:40 PM ET
Agreed. Hawks should not be acquiring anyone over the age of 26 IMO.
- EnzoD

😘😉

Unless it’s a back up goalie
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 18 @ 5:49 PM ET
First, you shouldn't count that CBJ game as Hartman only had one point anyway + Schmaltz was injured pretty quickly into it. I think excluding any games form a player's record is cherry picking, as many have games where they get more points than normal (or less), but we'll roll with it for discussions sake.

Second, 3 of the 6 points were primary, so dismissing them all seems odd. Most players have somewhat inflated numbers thanks to secondary assists, but Hartman actually isn't one of them - his % of primary points at 5v5 is great. If benefitting from Kane disqualified points, then Debrincat wouldn't have as many either.

Third, even if you remove 3 points (since we agree removing primary point is silly, yes?), that puts Hartman at 22 points with the Hawks or .39 PPG, which is still right in line with his .40 PPG from the previous year. So, I still believe it's inaccurate to say Hartman slumped. Despite switching teams, Hartman ended up with only 4 less goals at 5v5 than last season and only one less primary point. He was pretty consistent considering his (and everyone on the Hawks). If his sh% rebounds even a little and he maintains his primary assist rate, that would likely put Hartman in the 35-40 point range over a full season.

The reason some are upset is because we either (1) don't think Edjsell is very good (I'm trying to reserve judgement but skating is so importnat now) and (2) think Hartman as a proven 3rd liner is more useful to the current team / near future than the #27 pick. I would like the Hawks to be competitive sooner rather than later and thought Hartman helped with that, if only in terms of depth. Depth players are needed. Hartman also provided an element to the team that the Hawks didn't have and was more defensively responsible than most of the guys on the team currently. I liked him for the Hawks and the return is currently meh to me but that could change. Being annoyed at the trade is valid, though.

- L_B_R


I don't think he slumped so much as that he over-achieved in that rookie season a bit. Made people expect more than he can deliver.

You can slice and dice it however you like, but he got off to a hot start with points in a 10-1 win and a 5-1 win. Fact is, his goal scoring went from 0.25 goals per game to 0.14 with the Hawks year over year and yes he got more assists, but it wasn't some huge increase and it had more to do with who he played with, getting an opportunity to play with Kane 40% of the time helped him pad the assist totals a bit.

There were some nice things about the sandpaper he brought to the rink, but I don't think what he brought is really so hard to replace and they got a decent return for him.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 18 @ 5:50 PM ET
He doesn't have to be a blazer, and he could get able to get around to the front when boxed out if he wasn't a strong enough skater..
- wiz1901

No but he needs to be quick. Which he isn't. He spent most of his trial with the Hawks cleaning the ice with the seat of his pants.

Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 18 @ 5:51 PM ET
Hey moron,

You forgot to mention trading Kane - because you state he is the worst player ever, and that no one here has a clue.....

You are slipping - did you run out of your meds and mommy forgot to pick up more??


- dahawks8819

The only one who responds to him is you. So who is the moron here?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 18 @ 5:57 PM ET
I don't think he slumped so much as that he over-achieved in that rookie season a bit. Made people expect more than he can deliver.

You can slice and dice it however you like, but he got off to a hot start with points in a 10-1 win and a 5-1 win. Fact is, his goal scoring went from 0.25 goals per game to 0.14 with the Hawks year over year and yes he got more assists, but it wasn't some huge increase and it had more to do with who he played with, getting an opportunity to play with Kane 40% of the time helped him pad the assist totals a bit.

There were some nice things about the sandpaper he brought to the rink, but I don't think what he brought is really so hard to replace and they got a decent return for him.

- breadbag

There seems to be a disconnect between some thinking he is an useful player and people thinking it means he was a star in the making.

The return can't be considered decent until some time has passed. As of right now they traded him for a late blooming, poor skating, 23 year old hope and a late first that we, as fans, is able to contribute 30-35 points on a 3rd line 3-4 years in the future.

It did nothing to improve the team. Speaking for myself, trading isn't the issue. though not a fan of it, the return did nothing to improve the team.
Savoy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spencer, NC
Joined: 01.15.2014

Jun 18 @ 6:00 PM ET
Draft picks aren't going to save Bowman from the position that he put himself in. He has an ownership mandate to fulfill right now not in two or three years. He may therefore be shopping those first two picks for immediate established help. This is also the reason he won't trade Toews as losing him only adds greatly to the team uncertainty.
It appears that the money would have been there to resign Panarin as I predicted. He would have led the Blackhawks in scoring this last year having beaten out Kane but instead he led Columbus not only in scoring but also into the playoffs. What a complete fiasco dumping Panarin for about a quarter of his value was. Second worst trade in Blackhawk history IMO and closing in on number one.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 18 @ 6:02 PM ET
There seems to be a disconnect between some thinking he is an useful player and people thinking it means he was a star in the making.

The return can't be considered decent until some time has passed. As of right now they traded him for a late blooming, poor skating, 23 year old hope and a late first that we, as fans, is able to contribute 30-35 points on a 3rd line 3-4 years in the future.

It did nothing to improve the team. Speaking for myself, trading isn't the issue. though not a fan of it, the return did nothing to improve the team.

- Elbows15


Right, why would they trade an RFA that was having issues staying out of the doghouse. You don't know if they improved the team or not until the next season gets going, but I didn't lose any sleep about this trade.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 18 @ 6:07 PM ET
Draft picks aren't going to save Bowman from the position that he put himself in. He has an ownership mandate to fulfill right now not in two or three years. He may therefore be shopping those first two picks for immediate established help. This is also the reason he won't trade Toews as losing him only adds greatly to the team uncertainty.
It appears that the money would have been there to resign Panarin as I predicted. He would have led the Blackhawks in scoring this last year having beaten out Kane but instead he led Columbus not only in scoring but also into the playoffs. What a complete fiasco dumping Panarin for about a quarter of his value was. Second worst trade in Blackhawk history IMO and closing in on number one.

- Savoy


There needs to be a feature for blocking people so you dont have to read the same BS over and over and over and over.....and over and over and over and over.....and over and over and over again

Youd think some would get tired of typing the same garbage, but I guess not
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 18 @ 6:16 PM ET
https://theathletic.com/397848/2018/06/18/predicting-how-much-money-the-blackhawks-could-have-to-play-with-this-offseason/
- SoftServe



JvR....


L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 18 @ 6:21 PM ET
I don't think he slumped so much as that he over-achieved in that rookie season a bit. Made people expect more than he can deliver.

You can slice and dice it however you like, but he got off to a hot start with points in a 10-1 win and a 5-1 win. Fact is, his goal scoring went from 0.25 goals per game to 0.14 with the Hawks year over year and yes he got more assists, but it wasn't some huge increase and it had more to do with who he played with, getting an opportunity to play with Kane 40% of the time helped him pad the assist totals a bit.

There were some nice things about the sandpaper he brought to the rink, but I don't think what he brought is really so hard to replace and they got a decent return for him.

- breadbag

Did he really overachieve if his numbers were repeated the next season minus a low sh%? That seems an odd conclusion to make, but I guess we won't know until next year to see if he continues to put up consistent 3rd line numbers at 5v5 with a skew towards high primary points.

Also playing with Kane will help most players obvs, but the fact that Hartman has a large % of points that are primary indicates that he was a high contributor to the goals. I'd agree with your argument more if they were secondary and thus less likely to due to Hartman, but they weren't. On top of that, Hartman's production actually was consistent for a while away from Kane - Kane-Hartman were on a line for about 20 games in which Hartman got 10 points (5 if you want to remove that first game) and then he got 10 points in his next 20 games primarily playing with Sharp-Debrincat (in a position that he'd never played). All this tells me is that Hartman is doing something right in terms of his assist rate if he was able to change linemates and still have similar numbers. It may simply be that Hartman can be a compliment to skilled players rather than being any type of star / driving force himself, but that's a decent thing to be imo - Shaw made a career out of it with the Hawks, even.

And last, if the supposed sandpaper was easy to replace with his production, wouldn't they have more of those types of players since it's been lacking from the team in general? People always say 3rd liners are easy to come by but I've yet to see that be true.

I don't hate the return or anything btw, even if I don't think you can call it decent until one of Edjsell or he #27 is useful at the NHL level - I just think it's kind of silly to knock anyone that thinks Hartman is a useful player and would have preferred to keep him. No one has to agree, but it def is a valid point with a decent amount of empirical evidence to support it.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 18 @ 6:24 PM ET
You'll like this list as it relates to the 8 spot, Wiz. I think... Bob McKenzie condenses 10 NHL scouts lists into TSN’s Final NHL Draft Rankings. Some great draft tidbits as well. https://www.tsn.ca/kotkan...n-draft-ranking-1.1115400
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jun 18 @ 6:36 PM ET
Draft picks aren't going to save Bowman from the position that he put himself in. He has an ownership mandate to fulfill right now not in two or three years. He may therefore be shopping those first two picks for immediate established help. This is also the reason he won't trade Toews as losing him only adds greatly to the team uncertainty.
It appears that the money would have been there to resign Panarin as I predicted. He would have led the Blackhawks in scoring this last year having beaten out Kane but instead he led Columbus not only in scoring but also into the playoffs. What a complete fiasco dumping Panarin for about a quarter of his value was. Second worst trade in Blackhawk history IMO and closing in on number one.

- Savoy

Until Panarin scores over 700 goals. Is a Hall of Famer. A vital cog to 2 Cup winning teams plus numerous other awards, I am gonna go with not even close to the worst. I didn't even mention two other players who were important pieces to those 2 Cups for the Bruins.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 18 @ 6:44 PM ET
He’s drawn comparisons to Arvidsson due to the energy and tenacity in a small package.

Here’s my 2020/21 Hawks lineup...

Tkachuk-Schmaltz-Kane
Debrincat-Toews-Saad
Hinostroza/Sikura-Ejdsell-Hayden
Goon-Kampf-Grinder

Keith-Doughty
Jokiharju-Murphy
Forsling-Seabrook

Grubauer
Delia


- EnzoD




Sign me up for anyone who resembles Arvidsson
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 18 @ 6:53 PM ET
Did he really overachieve if his numbers were repeated the next season minus a low sh%? That seems an odd conclusion to make, but I guess we won't know until next year to see if he continues to put up consistent 3rd line numbers at 5v5 with a skew towards high primary points.

Also playing with Kane will help most players obvs, but the fact that Hartman has a large % of points that are primary indicates that he was a high contributor to the goals. I'd agree with your argument more if they were secondary and thus less likely to due to Hartman, but they weren't. On top of that, Hartman's production actually was consistent for a while away from Kane - Kane-Hartman were on a line for about 20 games in which Hartman got 10 points (5 if you want to remove that first game) and then he got 10 points in his next 20 games primarily playing with Sharp-Debrincat (in a position that he'd never played). All this tells me is that Hartman is doing something right in terms of his assist rate if he was able to change linemates and still have similar numbers. It may simply be that Hartman can be a compliment to skilled players rather than being any type of star / driving force himself, but that's a decent thing to be imo - Shaw made a career out of it with the Hawks, even.

And last, if the supposed sandpaper was easy to replace with his production, wouldn't they have more of those types of players since it's been lacking from the team in general? People always say 3rd liners are easy to come by but I've yet to see that be true.

I don't hate the return or anything btw, even if I don't think you can call it decent until one of Edjsell or he #27 is useful at the NHL level - I just think it's kind of silly to knock anyone that thinks Hartman is a useful player and would have preferred to keep him. No one has to agree, but it def is a valid point with a decent amount of empirical evidence to support it.

- L_B_R


I think he was a useful player, but the evidence is there that he regressed last season. It was apparent watching him play and the stats show it.

A good chunk of his production was in a few blowout games and when it mattered 5v5 in close games he was a lot less of a factor. The Hawks had fewer minutes with the game in control with a close score but he scored exactly 3 5v5 goals for the Hawks when the score was close and that was after 13 in his rookie season where he trailed only Kane in that department.

Rookie season he put a ton of shots on goal 5v5 in close games again second only to Kane with 135 and lead all Hawks with high danger chances in that situation. Last year he fell way down the list with just 46 shots and much fewer chances.

Just to put it in perspective from his rookie season to last.

His goal scoring rate in that situation was 39% of the previous season.
His shots on goal 58% of the previous.
Scoring chance 92%
High danger chances 82%

All this with more favorable deployment (since he had some more defensive deployment with Hossa/Kruger) but also against arguably tougher opposition getting slotted higher in the lineup.

IMO, He got more opportunity last year and he regressed in terms of being a real factor in the game. Playing with some stronger linemates helped him maintain some of his stats, but what he did on the ice failed to impress me.
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