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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: How Do These Hawks Look Two Years From Now?
Author Message
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 19 @ 1:36 PM ET
Hossa's contract has to be more and more inviting to the Senators, don't you think?
- powerenforcer


Hossa's contract could go to Senators and plenty of others.

I am sure every team in the NHL is talking to Ottawa about Duchene, Smith, Pageu, Dzingel, Karlsson.

Developing situations in Ottawa (fire sale), Montreal, Vancouver, Carolina (new ownership), New York Islanders (new GM), Vegas (ton of free agents), etc...

If the cap goes to $80mil 15 teams will be $20mil under the cap. The drafts, trades and free agency could be wild.

Stan_Bowman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.27.2017

Jun 19 @ 1:36 PM ET
This bothers me, if they draft Tkachuck...I could just see the Hayes brothers talking him out of actually coming here just because of their hatred for how the Hawks supposedly treated them. Then we have a wasted #8 pick, screw that.
- Murph76


They need to grow up if they still hold that animosity. Jimmy hayes was further traded by Florida (gave up on him) and then Boston plain bought him out.

Boohoo we didnt reserve a roster spot for him, but clearly two other NHL teams cut ties with him too
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jun 19 @ 1:38 PM ET
They need to grow up if they still hold that animosity. Jimmy hayes was further traded by Florida (gave up on him) and then Boston plain bought him out.

Boohoo we didnt reserve a roster spot for him, but clearly two other NHL teams cut ties with him too

- Stan_Bowman


Agree with this. Tired of hearing about the Hayes boys got screwed by the Hawks. Why? What did the Hawks do that was so egregious. I want neither of these guys to ever play for Chicago, spoiled babies.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 19 @ 1:40 PM ET
I couldn't help myself. I know I am bad, live and let live, and I love that he sticks to his nerdy gains on the draft prospects but after he took the the Athletic fans to task in an earlier Q and A, I submitted this kinda scolding "question":

Corey, a month ago you more than willing to argue the point in an early Q & A session that Brady Thachuk was clearly no higher than the NINTH best player on your list, and furthermore Noah Dotson was the 20th guy you would pick on your draft list.

((It was akin to the time I heard you (almost in tears) on Sirius XM NHL radio refusing to budge saying “No, Sasha Alexsander Barkov IS NOT part of the first tier that included Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, and Seth Jones…”[/I]))

JUST HAD To get that in....

When you were answering the questions a month ago @ The Athletic, Brady’s season was over, and Dobson was just about to finish up that Memorial Cup Championship run. Then, in the Athletic Mock Draft in the podcast AND in your latest projection, you have Brady gone at slot seven, and Dobson gone by slot 9.
WHAT in that month brought this revelation that suddenly aligned your thinking to the very same opinions the fan base was criticizing you for?
Have you been sucked into the scout group think you also spoke about in the podcast? I love that you take a stand, and have the conviction, to debate the evaluations, but it is also ok to allow some wiggle room in your arguing points to allow a bit of give and take, even after the junior seasons have ended, it’s ok to say, “I think I might have been off.”
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 19 @ 1:55 PM ET
Hossa's contract could go to Senators and plenty of others.

I am sure every team in the NHL is talking to Ottawa about Duchene, Smith, Pageu, Dzingel, Karlsson.

Developing situations in Ottawa (fire sale), Montreal, Vancouver, Carolina (new ownership), New York Islanders (new GM), Vegas (ton of free agents), etc...

If the cap goes to $80mil 15 teams will be $20mil under the cap. The drafts, trades and free agency could be wild.

- -Doh-

I would love Pageau at the Hawks 3C - he would easily help alleviate pressure for Toews and Kane. Bolland type deployment with Kruger transition ability, great on the PK, can slot up to 2C when needed, etc etc. Colin White is another, young and less established center that I like from them - he did well as Worlds, had chemistry with Kane.

I don't know if anyone saw, but BarstoolChief did a periscope not long ago and he mentioned that most of the Hawks-Canes talks about Hossa-Darling were from before Francis was relieved of his duties. Dundon wants to spend money this summer and so doesn't really want to take on additional cap unless there is a sweetener involved. If true, I'd pass on that and hope some team like Ottawa is desperate to reach the cap space.
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Jun 19 @ 1:58 PM ET
This bothers me, if they draft Tkachuck...I could see the Hayes brothers talking him out of actually coming here just because of their hatred for how the Hawks supposedly treated them. Then we have a wasted #8 pick, screw that.
- Murph76


Kevin wasn't really treated poorly though was he? He never even really got the chance to be treated poorly haha.

and Jimmy went and had a few somewhat kind of serviceable type seasons after he was traded. Not sure what issues they have, or could/would have
tyweb69
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 19 @ 1:58 PM ET
I love your GIFs.....

Ottawa wouldn't trade with Florida since they are in the same division, and if they were Tallon would have had to overpay.

Great move by Wilson. HE's loading up with cap space and assets to make some major moves.

And I know 1 guy will lose his mind, but the Chicago Blackhawks are now Patrick Kane's team baring Toews finding his 2015 game.

If Im Doug Wilson I'm talking to Trotz. If he can handle the pressure of "never winning" in Washington, he can handle it in San Jose. A perfect landing spot for him....talent, and an aggressive GM. I know he's some sort of a Canadian god, but I would take Trotz over babcock every day of the week.


I'm very fearful McDonough will orchestrate some over the top, over payment splash so he can dust off his traveling podium and have the kids hold up their posters...….this team is quickly sinking in the relevancy of many fans each day.

- SteveRain


You do realize that is complete BS right? Show me one GM that would not trade within his own division. I might tend to agree that if the same value was offered by a team in the division and another not that the GM may be inclined to deal to the latter but in no way no how will a GM EVER not deal with a team within their division. It's simply ludicrous to suggest that.

Last deadline- STL traded with Winnepeg. The Hawks and Preds made a deal. Hell the Hawks even sent Chelios to their bitter rival. Please stop with this foolishness. And while we are at it (not looking at you unless you're guilty of it) let's put to bed the "you pay for past performance" idiocy as well.

Carry on.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:09 PM ET
Kevin wasn't really treated poorly though was he? He never even really got the chance to be treated poorly haha.

and Jimmy went and had a few somewhat kind of serviceable type seasons after he was traded. Not sure what issues they have, or could/would have

- BlazinMike

Supposedly J.Hayes felt like he wasn't given a proper chance at being with the Hawks and that the trade blindsided him. K.Hayes is just mad on behalf of his brother. Both are dumb to be mad about normal hockey operations like trades, especially since J.Hayes was just a so-so prospect at best. If anything, J.Hayes should have been happy - he went to a weaker team so got a shot at the NHL.
LaheysBRandy
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:14 PM ET
If the objective of trades is to make a team better at winning hockey games, then how is a trade that results in no players making it to the NHL good? Again, it's all about asset management - they had a proven useful asset in Hartman and gave him away for a shot at useful assets. If the latter does not turn out to be useful, then they did not get anything of useful value for Hartman. It'd be different if they were getting something like cap space, but they're not.

Jfyi, if an example is an outlier, then it doesn't really prove anything except that there are exceptions to everything imo. And your lottery example says the opposite to me because you still got nothing for your money if you don't win. That's why people say "you're throwing your money away" when you play the lottery.

Perceived value vs realized value = the latter is more important to me. We don't have to agree on this, though, and that's fine.

- L_B_R


Yeah we don’t have to agree that is fine, I will make one more response about this because I think it’s a good topic.

As far as using an outlier to prove my point, i think it is acceptable in this case. I’m not trying to prove that the first pick in the draft isn’t valuable, I’m trying to disprove the hypothesis that you can judge the merits of a trade for draft picks based on what the pick eventually turns in to in the NHL.

I’ll use another example that doesn’t include any outlier situation. Let’s say at the deadline Hartman was traded for the 27 pick and a player of very similar value was traded for pick 35. At the time of the trade, pick 27 clearly has more value than pick 35, so the trade for pick 27 was better. Now, let’s say that the draft roles around and the Blackhawks pick a bust at pick 27 and a player at 35 that has a really good career. This is a very realistic scenario, not an outlier. Now, using your value system we would retroactively declare that the trade for pick 35 was the better trade. What I’m saying is the trade for pick 27 was the better trade because we got a more valuable pick for similar value assets, but because the draft is probabilistic in nature, 35 panned out and 27 didn’t.

This brings me to the term "asset management". I agree, being a good gm is all about good asset management. In trading, this means that they consistently get the more valuable assets in a trade. Draft picks sometimes pan out and sometimes don't, but over the long haul if gms make consistently good moves where they are getting more value, their team should be better off for it even though some trades for draft picks result in a good player whereas others do not. What I think a gm can be judged on is whether they are consistently making moves that provide good value for the team, whether or not a specific draft pick actually pans out is really just a matter of chance.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:29 PM ET
Breadman on the market.

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:31 PM ET
Yeah we don’t have to agree that is fine, I will make one more response about this because I think it’s a good topic.

As far as using an outlier to prove my point, i think it is acceptable in this case. I’m not trying to prove that the first pick in the draft isn’t valuable, I’m trying to disprove the hypothesis that you can judge the merits of a trade for draft picks based on what the pick eventually turns in to in the NHL.

I’ll use another example that doesn’t include any outlier situation. Let’s say at the deadline Hartman was traded for the 27 pick and a player of very similar value was traded for pick 35. At the time of the trade, pick 27 clearly has more value than pick 35, so the trade for pick 27 was better. Now, let’s say that the draft roles around and the Blackhawks pick a bust at pick 27 and a player at 35 that has a really good career. This is a very realistic scenario, not an outlier. Now, using your value system we would retroactively declare that the trade for pick 35 was the better trade. What I’m saying is the trade for pick 27 was the better trade because we got a more valuable pick for similar value assets, but because the draft is probabilistic in nature, 35 panned out and 27 didn’t.

This brings me to the term "asset management". I agree, being a good gm is all about good asset management. In trading, this means that they consistently get the more valuable assets in a trade. Draft picks sometimes pan out and sometimes don't, but over the long haul if gms make consistently good moves where they are getting more value, their team should be better off for it even though some trades for draft picks result in a good player whereas others do not. What I think a gm can be judged on is whether they are consistently making moves that provide good value for the team, whether or not a specific draft pick actually pans out is really just a matter of chance.

- LaheysBRandy


Speaking of asset Management...that very high 2nd round pick StanBo gifted to MTL with Danault for (frank)ing Weise and 38yr old Fleischmann...
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:32 PM ET
Breadman on the market.

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

- breadbag


Trade backs! Saad+ Anisimov for Panarin
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:32 PM ET
Ryan Merkley: The Enigma http://sambritt5.com/unca.../ryan-merkley-the-enigma/
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 19 @ 2:35 PM ET
Breadman on the market.

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

- breadbag



OMG...

Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 19 @ 2:35 PM ET
Breadman on the market.

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

- breadbag


Interesting. You know Panarin will wait until he gets top dollar. At least the Jackets are getting fair warning early....
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 19 @ 2:39 PM ET
Interesting. You know Panarin will wait until he gets top dollar. At least the Jackets are getting fair warning early....
- Mr Ricochet



If you are Montreal, do you trade the #3 for him?
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:41 PM ET
Interesting. You know Panarin will wait until he gets top dollar. At least the Jackets are getting fair warning early....
- Mr Ricochet


He is going to want 10 mil per year. He is smart to wait till after this years UFA's hit the market. When Tav gets 12 and Carlson 9mil, Kane gets 7 mil. SAAD at 6 or Pan at 10 will be a interesting question. The mistake he did with both guys is Extend them a bit earlier and get them signed long term. SAAD should have been extended 9 mos before the trade Long Term, Same with pan.
Murph76
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 12.07.2011

Jun 19 @ 2:41 PM ET
They need to grow up if they still hold that animosity. Jimmy hayes was further traded by Florida (gave up on him) and then Boston plain bought him out.

Boohoo we didnt reserve a roster spot for him, but clearly two other NHL teams cut ties with him too

- Stan_Bowman


Agreed StanBo, but are they is my question? Again, would HATE to waste our pick with that BS.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:42 PM ET
Interesting. You know Panarin will wait until he gets top dollar. At least the Jackets are getting fair warning early....
- Mr Ricochet


Which may be something he/his agent told CHI that he wants to be in the open market versus signing with any team he's with...
Z3Hawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.04.2017

Jun 19 @ 2:43 PM ET
For wiz

A few more comments on the age of draftees issue. With respect this is not a debatable issue. Of course the relative age of draftees is and always has been an issue.

I did not mention Auston Matthews as a comparable to Brady Tkachuk. Obviously as a player Matthews is a far, far superior player. I mentioned Matthews only as someone who was in the same birthday situation as Tkachuk. Matthews missed an earlier Draft by 2 days, Tkachuk by one day. So any arguments
you made were not against anything I was submitting.

What I was saying is Tkachuk will be as old as a draftee can be when he gets drafted. You describe a distinction for power forwards like Tkachuk which doesn’t apply to other players. I disagree - the age issue applies to all players. There are players across the age continuum. Most players fit somewhere along the middle section where age is less of an issue. However, for those at either extreme it is very much an issue. For players who are very young as a draftee or very old as a draftee it is very much an issue.

For a player who is very young as a draftee the player’s body of work has to be created in a far shorter period. The very old draftee has far more time to create his body of work playing through an entire extra hockey season. Of course the use of the words very young and very old are relative only to their relative positions as draftees.

I disagree with you that big aggressive power forwards should not be held to the same test. I submit that players like Tkachuk who have had their skill level questioned should be looked at even more critically. You see in the extra year whether a previously unseen skill level appears - you are looking for the player’s potential ceiling. The Hawks Scouting Department considers a player’s potential ceiling as an all- important issue. If you want to bring in Matthews there was nothing that happened in his extra year that diminished in any way the view that he was very highly skilled. However, in the case of Tkachuk he did not show dominant skill or burgeoning skill getting only 8 goals in 40 college games. For me Tkachuk’s performance gives no indication that he has a high ceiling as a player - there are far better, more highly skilled and safer choices than him. That his family has a history (Kevin Hayes) of using the college free agent loophole doesn’t help either. Tkachuk is just a dangerous choice all around and the Hawks cannot waste this pick. Also this talk that college hockey is like the AHL or KHL simply must stop.

Someone like Quinton Hughes who is highly skilled and a great skater would be highly skilled and a great skater no matter where he fit on the continuum. If you are comparing him to younger similarly equipped D-Men like Adam Boqvist or just all the other D-Men you do have to judge them all on where you think their relative ceilings are in the future and when you think that ceiling may be reached. Very old draftees, at least in theory, could be more NHL ready with the extra season of development.

I’m hoping that everyone stays away from Ryan Merkley like the plague and the Hawks aggressively pursue him. His Draft rating on some Lists is insanely low. 45, 70 - holy. On other Lists he penetrates the top 10. He has posted quite incredible stats on a bad Guelph Storm team and has played well internationally. Apparently he has been accused of believing his talent is wasted on the bad team - he’s right, he can’t on his own make them a winner. I’d be worried if he didn’t hate losing. Does he have an attitude problem if he is playing for the professionally run London Knights team? He may be confident but so what. I would look for players who are confident, not unrealistically so, but Merkley has a crazy skillset. Also he has put together his impressive statistical body of work as a very young draftee. He won’t even turn 18 until deep into August. I read a great article written June 17, 2018 that compared him to others and said Merkley clearly has the highest playmaking ability in the CHL. Also said his competitiveness fuels his on-ice excellence AND his problems. Bottom line he cares. No doubt there is a high level of frustration for him dealing with the losing. His situation sounds similar to ROR in Buffalo. I still go back to the fact that he is still only 17. On his resume? Drafted into OHL no. 1. OHL Rookie of the Year. 2nd season more than a point a game. Success internationally where he has been no attitudinal problems.

Your discussion is interesting concerning whether the additional season would/could impact on someone’s poor attitude rating. For Merkley he doesn’t get another season to “grow”. Jacques Madeuppe is clearly in an even poorer position being older.

However, for players with perceived attitude problems, regardless of their age, the analysis of their potential ceilings still applies - it is just that the analysis includes whether the attitudinal problem is something that is overblown or in any event will dissipate.

I don’t want Tkachuk. I also don’t want Dobson or Bouchard. I like Hughes. High-end skill, high-end skating. Played at Worlds against professionals. Already knows, respects Kane. I also like Merkley - a lot! Can’t wait for Friday.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:44 PM ET
Supposedly J.Hayes felt like he wasn't given a proper chance at being with the Hawks and that the trade blindsided him. K.Hayes is just mad on behalf of his brother. Both are dumb to be mad about normal hockey operations like trades, especially since J.Hayes was just a so-so prospect at best. If anything, J.Hayes should have been happy - he went to a weaker team so got a shot at the NHL.
- L_B_R


Seems like the Hayes brothers thought very highly of themselves, like spoiled rich kids often do. Yeah, trading Jimmy was likely the catalyst for Kevin not signing. Boo-hoo. At least he got a front row seat when the Blackhawks raised their 2014-15 Stanley Cup Champion banner opening night of the 2015-16 season. Nice timing that the Hawks hosted the Rangers that night. Haha.
Colbyboy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Summerside , PEI
Joined: 12.14.2013

Jun 19 @ 2:45 PM ET
If you are Montreal, do you trade the #3 for him?
- z1990z


Anyone who has the Cap Space to afford 10 Million a year could make a hockey trade -
Hawks couldn’t afford him and now it appears Columbus cannot either- enter Center stage Florida - Vegas & SAN Jose or whoever loses out on Taveres
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:45 PM ET
If you are Montreal, do you trade the #3 for him?
- z1990z


I really don’t think so, not for a player you know is going to test the market to get maximum dollars.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 19 @ 2:47 PM ET
I really don’t think so, not for a player you know is going to test the market to get maximum dollars.
- walleyeb1


Sounds like something Montreal would do, based on their past choices...

Edit: not specifically players going UFA but just their questionable moves.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 19 @ 2:49 PM ET
Sounds like something Montreal would do, based on their past choices...

Edit: not specifically players going UFA but just their questionable moves.

- breadbag


Well there is that, good point lol.
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